Buy on the Pullbacks in a Strong Bullish Trend

Winkelmann

Commodity

Summary:

Driven by safe-haven demand, silver maintains a bullish outlook; it is recommended to go long at the lows.

BUY XAGUSD

Close Time

CLOSED

32.660

Entry Price

34.000

31.700

32.954 +0.037 +0.11%

21.1

Pips

Profit

31.700

32.871

Exit Price

32.660

Entry Price

34.000

Fundamentals

Recently, the Trump administration has escalated its tariff strategy, targeting the automotive, pharmaceutical, and semiconductor chip sectors with plans for tariffs no less than 25%. This move could potentially destabilize global trade dynamics, driving up safe-haven assets like gold and silver, which are nearing recent highs.

Regarding geopolitical developments, the U.S. and Russia have initiated discussions on ending the Ukraine war, deviating from Washington's previous strategy of isolating Russia. However, the absence of Ukraine and European nations has made these talks contentious, leaving the prospects for peace in the region uncertain and providing support for precious metals as safe havens.

Despite the Federal Reserve's pause on interest rate cuts and hawkish signals, gold and silver have continued their upward trajectory, indicating that safe-haven buying is the primary driver of their price increases. Furthermore, given silver's industrial applications, demand for the metal in electronics is expected to rise with the ongoing AI boom.

Technical Analysis

Buy on the Pullbacks in a Strong Bullish Trend_1

In the 4H timeframe, the XAGUSD has been experiencing a consistent upward trend with fluctuations. Despite short-term bearish signals causing price corrections, these have proven to be temporary pullbacks, with subsequent rallies demonstrating increased speed and magnitude. This indicates robust buying pressure at lower price levels, as bullish traders are eager to capitalize on the upward movement. In the short term, the bullish outlook for silver remains intact, and it is recommended to go long at the lows. A breakout above 33.0 could propel silver prices towards 34.0.

It is recommended to go long around 32.5 during the price pullbacks, with a target set near 34.0 and a stop-loss below 32.0.

Trading Recommendations

Trading Direction: Buy

Entry Price: 32.5

Target Price: 34.0

Stop Loss: 31.7

Support: 32.0/31.7

Resistance: 33.0/34.0

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

You understand and acknowledge that there is a high degree of risk involved in trading. Following any strategies or investment methods may lead to potential losses. The content on the site is provided by our contributors and analysts for information purposes only. You are solely responsible for determining whether any trading assets, securities, strategy, or any other product is suitable for investing based on your own investment objectives and financial situation.

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Manuel

Economic

Central Bank

Summary:

This breakout to the upside, followed by a clean retest, suggests that bullish momentum may be building.

BUY AUDCAD

EXP

PENDING

0.90000

Entry Price

0.90650

0.89850

0.90665 -0.00039 -0.04%

Pips

PENDING

0.89850

Exit Price

0.90000

Entry Price

0.90650

The latest inflation data out of Canada provided a fresh perspective on the country’s economic landscape. On Tuesday, Statistics Canada reported that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 1.9% year-over-year in January, slightly higher than December’s 1.8% and perfectly in line with analysts' expectations. On a monthly basis, the CPI edged up by 0.1%, rebounding from a -0.4% decline in the previous reading. More notably, the Bank of Canada’s (BoC) core CPI — which excludes volatile items such as food and energy — climbed to 2.1% year-over-year in January, up from 1.8% in December. This uptick in core inflation suggests that underlying price pressures remain steady, reinforcing expectations that the central bank may hold off on immediate rate cuts.

In response to the stronger-than-anticipated inflation numbers, traders quickly adjusted their rate cut expectations for the Bank of Canada’s March meeting. Market odds now suggest a nearly 63% probability that the BoC will leave interest rates unchanged, up from 56% before the data release. This shift highlights how inflation resilience can influence market sentiment and central bank decision-making, adding a layer of complexity for those navigating the Canadian dollar.

Turning to Australia, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) delivered a surprisingly hawkish rate cut, resisting market expectations of a more aggressive easing cycle. While markets had been pricing in around 50 basis points of additional cuts by 2025, Standard Chartered’s FX and Macro Strategist Nicholas Chia now forecasts just one more 25-basis-point reduction, likely in the third quarter of 2025. This revised projection reflects the ongoing tightness in Australia’s labor market and the RBA’s cautious stance on inflation.

"The RBA’s 25-basis-point rate cut to 4.10% was in line with both our expectations and consensus forecasts," Chia noted. "However, the sharper-than-expected decline in the trimmed mean CPI for Q4 (3.2%) compared to the RBA’s own forecast of 3.4% has bolstered confidence that inflation is sustainably trending lower."

Following the rate decision, RBA Governor Michele Bullock’s press conference added a hawkish twist. She pushed back against market pricing of further cuts, suggesting that there may be less room for additional rate reductions compared to other developed markets. Bullock emphasized that the recent rate cut was intended to unwind the precautionary hike from November 2023, rather than signal the start of a full easing cycle. Importantly, she reiterated that monetary policy remains restrictive, indicating that the central bank is far from declaring victory over inflation. Current Pullback Could Confirm Bullish Momentum if Support Holds_1

Current Pullback Could Confirm Bullish Momentum if Support Holds_1

Technical Analysis

The AUD/CAD pair is currently showing signs of resilience, having once again revisited the 0.9000 zone in what appears to be a retest of the former resistance-turned-support level. This breakout to the upside, followed by a clean retest, suggests that bullish momentum may be building. If the support at 0.9000 holds, there is potential for a fresh rally towards the next key resistance zone around 0.9065 — a level that has previously acted as a significant barrier for the pair.

Adding to the bullish case, the 100-period and 200-period moving averages are positioned just below the current price action, offering additional dynamic support. As long as the price remains above these moving averages, the upward trend could continue to strengthen.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) on the 2-hour chart recently touched the 72 level, signaling overbought conditions. However, the subsequent pullback has helped to alleviate this overbought pressure, with the RSI now back in neutral territory. This correction could pave the way for another bullish push, as the market regains the energy needed to challenge the upper resistance levels once more.

Trading Recommendations

Trading direction: Buy

Entry price: 0.9000

Target price: 0.9065

Stop loss: 0.8985

Validity: Feb 28, 2025 15:00:00

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Manuel

Economic

Central Bank

Summary:

Notably, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) dipped to 27, entering oversold territory and suggesting that bearish exhaustion could be setting in.

BUY USDCHF

EXP

TRADING

0.90100

Entry Price

0.91350

0.89600

0.89928 +0.00151 +0.17%

0.0

Pips

Flat

0.89600

Exit Price

0.90100

Entry Price

0.91350

The Empire State Manufacturing Index from the New York Fed delivered a significant upside surprise in February, jumping from -12.6 to 5.7, signaling a notable shift in sentiment within the U.S. manufacturing sector. According to Oliver Allen, senior U.S. economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics, this improvement aligns with the broader recovery seen in the ISM Manufacturing Index, suggesting that the industrial sector may be regaining some traction after months of contraction.

However, not all the economic data painted a positive picture. The NAHB Housing Market Index fell five points from 47 to 42, reflecting the strain of elevated mortgage rates and a limited inventory of existing homes. This decline highlighted ongoing challenges in the housing sector, which continues to face headwinds from tight financial conditions.

On the policy front, markets are closely watching comments from several Federal Reserve officials. Later today, San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly and Fed Vice Chair for Supervision Michael Barr are scheduled to speak, with their remarks potentially offering fresh insights into the central bank’s outlook on inflation and interest rates. Daly’s speech is set for 15:20 GMT, followed by Barr at 18:00 GMT, both of which could inject volatility into the USD pairs.

In the meantime, Fed Governor Christopher Waller made headlines on Monday, downplaying the inflationary impact of potential new tariffs proposed by former President Donald Trump. Similarly, Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker expressed skepticism about the need for any imminent changes to the Fed’s interest rate policy, stating that he sees no compelling reason for a shift in the near term.

Harker’s stance echoed the hawkish tone set by Fed Chair Jerome Powell during his semi-annual testimony before Congress, where he reiterated that the central bank is in no rush to ease monetary policy. Powell’s remarks reinforced the market’s belief that the Fed will maintain its higher-for-longer stance, with traders currently pricing in a 25-basis-point rate cut by July and assigning an 80% probability of another cut in December, according to data from Prime Market Terminal.

Meanwhile, across the Atlantic, softer-than-expected inflation data out of Switzerland has added to speculation that the Swiss National Bank (SNB) could be inching closer to negative rates. The January Consumer Price Index (CPI) slowed to 0.4% year-over-year, down from 0.6% in December, landing well below the SNB’s target range of 0% to 2%. This weakening inflationary pressure could weigh on the franc and open the door for the USD/CHF to extend its rebound. Bulls Could Seize Control if Key Support Holds_1

Bulls Could Seize Control if Key Support Holds_1

Technical Analysis

The USD/CHF pair recently found solid footing near its 0.8984 support zone, rebounding after hitting a low of 0.8972 on February 14. This area has proven to be a significant level, where the pair has staged upward bounces on two prior occasions, reinforcing its role as a strong technical support.

Notably, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) dipped to 27, entering oversold territory and suggesting that bearish exhaustion could be setting in. This technical signal adds to the growing upside pressure on the pair, hinting at a possible continuation of the rebound if buying interest persists.

Looking ahead, the 100-period and 200-period moving averages are positioned near the midpoint of the current trading range, around 0.9068 and 0.9085, respectively. A decisive close above these moving averages could signal renewed bullish momentum, with the next upside target being the 0.9188 resistance zone, which marks the pair’s most recent local high.

On the flip side, a break below the 0.8965 support level would invalidate this bullish scenario and could pave the way for a more pronounced downside move. Such a development would shift the focus toward lower support levels, potentially accelerating selling pressure if the pair loses its grip on this critical area.

Trading Recommendations

Trading direction: Buy

Entry price: 0.9010

Target price: 0.9135

Stop loss: 0.8960

Validity: Feb 28, 2025 15:00:00

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Eva Chen

Economic

Forex

Summary:

The German ZEW Economic Sentiment Index surged to 26 in February, with pre-election optimism bolstering the EURUSD above 1.0450.

BUY EURUSD

EXP

PENDING

1.04000

Entry Price

1.06350

1.02650

1.04680 -0.00326 -0.31%

Pips

PENDING

1.02650

Exit Price

1.04000

Entry Price

1.06350

Fundamentals

The EURUSD attempted a recovery during Tuesday's European session, stabilizing above 1.0450. The German ZEW Economic Sentiment Index for February surged to 26.0 from 10.3, surpassing the anticipated 20.2, indicating growing optimism regarding the German economic outlook. The Current Situation Index also saw a slight improvement, rising to -88.5 from -90.4, exceeding the forecast of -89.0.

Furthermore, the Eurozone ZEW Economic Sentiment Index increased to 24.2 from 18.0, falling short of the expected 25.4, while the Current Situation Index rose by 8.5 points to -45.3. This data helped to limit the euro's decline.

ZEW President Achim Wambach attributed the significant rise in expectations to hopes for a "new German government capable of taking action" before the federal elections, as well as expectations of a rebound in private consumption over the next six months.

In other aspect, Germany will hold its federal parliamentary elections this Sunday. As the largest economy in Europe, Germany's political direction has a profound impact on the euro exchange rate. The process of forming a coalition government after the elections could take weeks or even months. If negotiations proceed smoothly, market confidence will be boosted, and the euro may strengthen. Conversely, if negotiations reach an impasse, market uncertainty will increase, potentially putting downward pressure on the euro.

Bet on a Price Surge Following Consolidation_1

Technical Analysis

The EURUSD has failed to sustain the 1.0500 psychological resistance level over the past two trading sessions, declining to around 1.0450 during Tuesday's European session. The U.S. Dollar Index has rebounded after nearing a two-month low, and despite fundamental factors supporting the euro, the EURUSD remains in a downward trend.

The outlook for EURUSD remains unchanged, as the consolidation from 1.0176 continues. The intraday bias is currently neutral. A more robust rebound is possible, but the outlook remains bearish as long as the 38.2% retracement of 1.1213 to 1.0176 at 1.0572 holds.

On the downside, a break of 1.0176 would resume the entire decline from 1.1213. However, a decisive break of 1.0572 would increase the chance of a reversal, targeting the 61.8% retracement level at 1.0817.

Trading Recommendations

Trading Direction: Buy

Entry Price: 1.0400

Target Price: 1.0635

Stop Loss: 1.0265

Valid Until: March 5, 2025 23:55:00

Support: 1.0420, 1.0373, 1.0316

Resistance: 1.0513, 1.0537, 1.0629

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Eva Chen

Forex

Economic

Summary:

Data released on Tuesday revealed that the UK's average wage growth accelerated again at the end of last year, reaching 5.9%. However, other indicators suggest a loosening in the labor market, which should translate into a gradual slowdown in wage growth.

SELL GBPUSD

Close Time

CLOSED

1.25875

Entry Price

1.23610

1.27300

1.26424 -0.00256 -0.20%

62.6

Pips

Loss

1.23610

1.26501

Exit Price

1.25875

Entry Price

1.27300

Fundamentals

The Office for National Statistics (ONS) released data today indicating that the UK's average weekly earnings (excluding bonuses) increased by 5.9% YoY in the final quarter of 2024, aligning with market expectations. This figure suggests the UK labor market remains robust, and wage growth pressures could prompt the Bank of England (BOE) to postpone interest rate cuts.

Following the data release, the GBPUSD briefly rebounded, climbing from around 1.2596 to approximately 1.2615, reflecting an initial positive market reaction to the wage growth figures. However, subsequent movements will continue to be influenced by market expectations regarding the BOE's monetary policy outlook.

Overall, the latest employment data provided a short-term boost to the pound, but sustained wage growth and potential inflationary pressures may impact the BOE's monetary policy decisions, thereby affecting the medium-to-long-term trajectory of the pound. We anticipate that, as inflation moderates, this should provide the BOE with greater confidence to continue with interest rate cuts. We project the BOE will implement rate cuts at a pace of once per quarter this year.

Selling Pressure Is Strong Despite Bullish Trend_1

Technical Analysis

1D Timeframe Analysis

Trend Direction: The GBPUSD is generally in an upward fluctuation, but has recently encountered resistance near 1.2635, and may face adjustment pressure in the short term.

Support: Short-term support is in the 1.2570-1.2580 range. If this range is breached, the price may further test the 1.2500 threshold.

Resistance: Key resistance above is in the 1.2650-1.2700 range. A breakout could see a challenge of 1.2750 or even 1.2800.

SMAs: The 50-day SMA (1.2585) and the 200-day SMA (1.2500) both provide support, and the short-term trend remains bullish.

4H Timeframe Analysis

Short-term Support: The GBPUSD is currently finding support around 1.2580. If it can stabilize here, this level could serve as a foundation for a short-term rebound.

Ascending Trend Line: The current GBPUSD remains above the ascending trend line, with no clear signs of a breakdown.

MACD Indicator: The MACD line of MACD is still above the signal line, but the momentum bars are beginning to contract, indicating weakening upward momentum. A death cross could trigger a short-term correction.

RSI Indicator: The Relative Strength Index is around 55, not yet in the overbought or oversold zone, suggesting that the market still has room for further upside.

Outlook

Short-Term Outlook (1-2 Days): If the critical support level of 1.2580 holds, the GBPUSD may consolidate within a range of 1.2580-1.2650, awaiting further market interpretation of the wage data.

Medium-Term Outlook (This Week): A break above 1.2650 could see a test of the 1.2700-1.2750 range. Conversely, a break below 1.2580 might lead to a retracement towards 1.2500 for support.

Long-Term Outlook (2-4 Weeks): Market focus remains on the BOE's interest rate policy. If wage growth fuels inflationary pressures, potentially delaying rate cuts, the GBPUSD could experience continued upward volatility. Conversely, deteriorating economic data could trigger a correction towards 1.2400 or lower.

Trading Strategy Recommendations

Bull Strategy (Short-Term): If the GBPUSD maintains stability above 1.2580, consider initiating a long position around 1.2590-1.2600, with a target of 1.2650-1.2700 and a stop-loss at 1.2560.

Bear Strategy (Short-Term): If the GBPUSD breaks below 1.2580, it is recommended to consider going short on a rebound to around 1.2600, with a target of 1.2520-1.2500 and a stop-loss at 1.2630.

Risk Disclosure: Market sentiment, the movement of the U.S. dollar, and changes in expectations regarding central bank policies may all impact the GBPUSD's trajectory. It is recommended to integrate other fundamental data for a comprehensive assessment.

Overall, the UK employment data has bolstered a short-term rebound in the GBPUSD. However, the market still needs to further assess the impact of wage growth on the BOE's policy. Technically, the GBPUSD has shown resilience near the critical support level of 1.2580. Subsequent attention should be given to whether 1.2650 can be effectively breached to confirm a further upward trend.

Trading Recommendations

Trading Direction: Sell

Entry Price: 1.2650

Target Price: 1.2361

Stop loss: 1.2730

Valid Until: March 5, 2025 23:55:00

Support: 1.2580, 1.2500, 1.2451

Resistance: 1.2634, 1.2650, 1.2666

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Warren Takunda

Commodity

Summary:

Silver (XAG/USD) continues to rise despite multiple challenges, including the Federal Reserve's "higher for longer" interest rate stance, growing optimism around Russia-Ukraine peace, and reduced fears of tariffs.

BUY XAGUSD

Close Time

CLOSED

32.501

Entry Price

34.000

31.600

32.954 +0.037 +0.11%

24.1

Pips

Profit

31.600

32.742

Exit Price

32.501

Entry Price

34.000

Silver (XAG/USD) has managed to maintain a strong footing in the market, rising sharply to nearly $32.50 during Tuesday’s European trading session. Despite various pressures, including firm expectations for the Federal Reserve’s interest rate stance, an increasingly optimistic outlook on Russia-Ukraine peace talks, and the ebbing of tariff fears under former President Donald Trump’s administration, the white metal has shown resilience. This rebound comes as market participants digest a series of key developments that could influence the precious metals market in the short and long term.

The U.S. Federal Reserve has made it clear that the current monetary policy conditions are not expected to change soon. Several Fed officials reiterated this stance on Monday, underlining the strength of the U.S. economy, still-elevated inflation, and a balanced labor market. Fed Governor Michelle Bowman highlighted that while the economy remains resilient, she would need greater confidence in inflationary trends before considering any shift in monetary policy.

The Federal Reserve’s ‘higher for longer’ stance regarding interest rates continues to weigh on precious metals, including silver. As the Fed signals its intention to maintain restrictive monetary policy, the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets like silver increases, diminishing their appeal to investors. Moreover, the longer rates stay elevated, the more likely investors will seek the yields offered by other financial assets, further undercutting demand for precious metals. Silver, traditionally viewed as a safe haven in times of economic or geopolitical uncertainty, may find itself facing diminishing support as this policy environment persists.

In a surprising turn of events, the risk associated with Donald Trump’s proposed tariffs appears to have subsided. On Thursday, President Trump refrained from unveiling any specific reciprocal tariff plans, dampening market anxiety. Investors had previously braced for a significant escalation in trade tensions, especially after Trump indicated his intentions to implement tariffs on U.S. trading partners. However, with the President postponing action until at least April, and the nomination of Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick, the threat of an immediate tariff war appears to have diminished. This delay gives U.S. trading partners ample time to engage in diplomatic negotiations, potentially diffusing what had once been a source of market anxiety.

This thaw in tariff fears is also linked to the broader sense of optimism surrounding the Russia-Ukraine conflict. Last week, Trump announced that both Russian and Ukrainian leaders had agreed to pursue peace talks, marking a shift towards de-escalation. With this development, hopes are rising that an end to the conflict is on the horizon. Historically, improving geopolitical tensions have been a negative catalyst for precious metals, as the need for safe-haven assets like silver declines when risks in the global economy seem to subside.

Silver’s role as a hedge against geopolitical uncertainty is heavily influenced by the prevailing mood in international relations. A peaceful resolution between Russia and Ukraine, coupled with an easing of trade tensions, could further reduce the desire for investors to park their wealth in silver, potentially capping its upside in the near term.

Technical Analysis

From a technical standpoint, silver has demonstrated impressive resilience despite the prevailing headwinds. The price has been trading within a sideways range since Monday, but there are signs that a bullish breakout could be on the horizon. The 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA50) has been providing dynamic support, keeping the price above key levels. This suggests that the market is awaiting the right catalyst to push silver into a sustained upward trajectory.

Looking ahead, if silver can break through resistance at $32.86, this could signal the beginning of a more extended bullish trend. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is showing an upward trajectory, indicating increasing momentum behind the price action. Moreover, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) has displayed a bullish crossover, further strengthening the case for a potential upward move.

In the event of a sustained breakout, silver could look to test higher levels, with the next key resistance levels around $33.50 and $34.00. Conversely, any failure to hold above the current support levels, or a significant shift in macroeconomic sentiment, could see the metal retracing towards lower levels.

TRADE RECOMMENDATION

BUY XAGUSD

ENTRY PPRICE: 32.50

STOP LOSS: 31.60

TAKE PROFIT: 34.00

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Alan

Forex

Summary:

Despite the Eurozone's GDP growth in Q4 of 2024, the economies of key member states remain sluggish. Meanwhile, declining retail sales data within the Eurozone suggest easing inflationary pressures, potentially paving the way for future monetary policy rate cuts.

SELL EURUSD

EXP

TRADING

1.04549

Entry Price

0.99900

1.05450

1.04680 -0.00326 -0.31%

0.0

Pips

Flat

0.99900

Exit Price

1.04549

Entry Price

1.05450

Fundamentals

Last Friday, Eurostat released data indicating that the Eurozone's Q4 2024 GDP grew by 0.1% QoQ, surpassing the initial estimate of zero growth. This revision is attributed to the inclusion of data from a broader range of member states. However, performance varied significantly across major economies. The Netherlands and Spain showed robust growth, approximately 0.4% and 0.8% respectively, while Germany and France, key Eurozone economies, exhibited weakness in certain sectors, with some areas contracting. Furthermore, employment data revealed a slowdown in growth, decreasing from 0.2% in the previous quarter to 0.1%, suggesting some strain on the labor market.

Meanwhile, the Eurozone's retail sales figures for December are noteworthy. Some data points indicate a decline in retail sales MoM, suggesting a pullback in consumer spending following a period of heightened consumption. This development presents a short-term economic headwind, but it also signals a potential easing of inflationary pressures, which could provide room for future monetary policy rate cuts. This scenario increases the likelihood of a further decline in the Euro's value in the near future.

Technical Analysis

In the 1D timeframe, the EURUSD has entered a consolidation phase following a significant prior decline. The short-term trend suggests a range-bound fluctuation between 1.050 and 1.020.

On the upside, a break of the critical resistance level at 1.050 could potentially trigger upward momentum for the EURUSD.

On the downside, the EURUSD is currently showing signs of weakness below the 1.050 resistance, increasing the likelihood of a short-term decline. A decisive break below the key support level at 1.020 would open up further downside potential, initiating a new wave of substantial decline.

Trading Recommendations

Trading Direction: Sell

Entry Price: 1.0460

Target Price: 0.9990

Stop Loss: 1.0545

Valid Until: March 4, 2025 23:00:00

Support: 1.0410, 1.0177, 1.0000

Resistance: 1.0513, 1.0532, 1.0629

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Buy on the Pullbacks in a Strong Bullish Trend

Fundamentals

Technical Analysis

Trading Recommendations

Current Pullback Could Confirm Bullish Momentum if Support Holds

Technical Analysis

Bulls Could Seize Control if Key Support Holds

Technical Analysis

Bet on a Price Surge Following Consolidation

Fundamentals

Technical Analysis

Trading Recommendations

Selling Pressure Is Strong Despite Bullish Trend

Fundamentals

Technical Analysis

Trading Recommendations

Silver Surges Despite Fed's Rate Hikes and Geopolitical Optimism

Technical Analysis

A New Round of Decline Could Begin

Fundamentals

Technical Analysis

Trading Recommendations

Risk Disclosure