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Buy the Dips Amid Fluctuations
Summary:
The GBPJPY strengthened on Tuesday after closing above the 100-day SMA. Uncertainty over the Bank of Japan (BOJ) could limit the yen's strength and help spot price losses.
CLOSED
195.800
Entry Price
200.530
TP
192.000
SL
194.594 -3.301 -1.67%
244.1
Pips
Profit
192.000
SL
198.241
Exit Price
195.800
Entry Price
200.530
TP
Fundamentals
The GBPJPY strengthened moderately on Tuesday, continuing its rally from the early September peak of 193.50. However, spot prices remain confined within the familiar range that has persisted for around two weeks, currently trading near 195.75, reflecting a slight decline of just over 0.10% on the day.
As U.S. Treasury Securities continue to be sold off, the U.S. dollar gained strength again on Tuesday, putting additional downward pressure on the yen (the pound and yen moved in tandem). Several Federal Reserve officials have also expressed caution regarding the easing cycle, contributing to uncertainty about the pace of narrowing the U.S.-Japan yield spread.
At the same time, the uncertainty surrounding the BOJ could restrict the movement of the yen, opening the door for potential further declines. The next target for investors is the 200-day SMA at 151.36 for the USDJPY. If the USDJPY breaks through the 200-day SMA, it could rise to around 155.00. Conversely, if it fails to breach this level and retract, further upward movement is expected to be challenging.
Technical Analysis
The GBPJPY has rebounded from 180.00, breaking through the resistance level at 195.95, and is now inclined to move upward. The target is set at 197.35, which corresponds to the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement from the range between 208.09 and 180.00. A sustained breakout above this level will aim for the psychological barrier at 200.00.
On the downside, a break of the minor support at 194.55 will initially render the market neutral and could potentially lead to further upward movement.
From a broader perspective, the price trend starting from 208.09 is viewed as a correction to the entire rebound that commenced from the low of 123.94 in 2020. The consolidation range should be established between the 38.2% retracement of 123.94 and 208.09, specifically at 175.94 and 208.09. However, a decisive break below 175.94 will indicate that a deeper correction is underway.
Trading Recommendations
Trading Direction: Buy
Entry Price: 194.90, 193.50
Target Price: 200.53
Stop Loss: 192.00
Deadline: November 6, 2024 23:55:00
Support: 193.74, 192.89, 191.68
Resistance: 196.66, 197.52, 198.72
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