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Buying at Key Resistance for a Potential Bullish Breakout
Summary:
The EUR/CHF pair is currently facing a key resistance level near 0.9338, from which it has rebounded several times, forming what appears to be a solid base for potential upward momentum.
TRADING
0.93756
Entry Price
0.95700
TP
0.92800
SL
0.93557 -0.00028 -0.03%
0.0
Pips
Flat
0.92800
SL
Exit Price
0.93756
Entry Price
0.95700
TP
Last month, the European Central Bank (ECB) reduced its key interest rate to minimize economic strain, as recent minutes reveal. The decision to cut the rate by 25 basis points to 3.25% received unanimous support within the Governing Council, with officials agreeing it was essential to manage disinflation without causing unnecessary harm to the economy. This stance emphasized the importance of sustaining economic growth while maintaining inflation under control, a position further underscored by the ECB’s “risk management” approach.
According to the minutes released on Thursday, this cut was seen as a proactive measure, allowing for a potential pause in December if economic indicators showed improvement. Hawks on the council were persuaded to support the rate cut, understanding it could mitigate the necessity of further reduction if growth in the Eurozone picked up. If the recent economic deceleration and unexpected inflation dip are temporary, “a rate cut now could effectively be seen as advancing a December cut,” the minutes noted. The document also highlighted minimal associated risk with the October cut, emphasizing its strategic nature.
A few council members initially favored waiting until December to reduce rates but were eventually convinced by the benefits of immediate precautionary action. The prevailing economic concerns mainly stemmed from subdued consumer spending, while risks of escalating global trade tensions also weighed on policymakers, with potential repercussions for Eurozone exports. Looking forward, in light of the U.S. election results, there are increased downside risks to Eurozone growth in the short and long term, which may further complicate the ECB's task. If this economic situation persists, the December question shifts from "if" to "by how much" the ECB will cut rates, whether by 25 or 50 basis points.
The hawkish members view a 50 basis point reduction as overly aggressive, whereas dovish members might leverage risk management arguments to advocate for it. Sentiment indicators due soon will offer initial insights into the U.S. election's effect on the Eurozone, potentially influencing the ECB’s decision between a 25 or 50 basis point cut. Today’s minutes suggest the December meeting will likely be highly contentious, with the decision finely balanced.
Meanwhile, the Swiss National Bank (SNB) took the lead among major central banks in cutting interest rates with a 25 basis point reduction in March. The significant appreciation of the Swiss franc (CHF) and low inflation levels have fueled speculation that the SNB might enact another substantial rate cut this week. Leading institutions like MUFG, UBS, and BofA advocate for a 50 basis point cut to curb CHF strength.
Technical Analysis
The EUR/CHF pair is currently facing a key resistance level near 0.9338, from which it has rebounded several times, forming what appears to be a solid base for potential upward momentum. Should the SNB proceed with a 50 basis point cut at its upcoming meeting, it could weaken the CHF and provide a boost to EUR/CHF, positioning it for further upside. Additionally, price action is consolidating within a triangular pattern, and a breakout to the upside could see the pair climbing towards 0.9570.
Conversely, if the price breaks below this resistance zone, establishing new local lows, we could witness a more pronounced decline. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) remains stable around 47, indicating the absence of oversold conditions. This has allowed consolidation around current levels, but an imminent breakout seems increasingly likely.
Trading Recommendations
Trading direction: Buy
Entry price: 0.9370
Target price: 0.9570
Stop loss: 0.9280
Validity: Nov 25, 2024 15:00:00
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You understand and acknowledge that there is a high degree of risk involved in trading. Following any strategies or investment methods may lead to potential losses. The content on the site is provided by our contributors and analysts for information purposes only. You are solely responsible for determining whether any trading assets, securities, strategy, or any other product is suitable for investing based on your own investment objectives and financial situation.
On the M15 chart, USDX is forming a clear bearish correction pattern. The Stochastic (5,3,3) indicator is currently at 15.38, in the oversold zone, but the %K line remains below the %D line, indicating that selling pressure is still strong. This is a sign of continuation of the short-term downtrend.
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