Buying From Channel Lows Ahead of the Fed's Decision

Economic

Central Bank

Summary:

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has dropped to 32, approaching oversold territory, and is accompanied by divergence at current levels, previous lows saw higher RSI readings, suggesting weakening bearish momentum.

BUY XAUUSD

Close Time

CLOSED

2623.96

Entry Price

2720.00

2590.00

2623.41 +28.97 +1.12%

339.6

Pips

Loss

2590.00

2589.99

Exit Price

2623.96

Entry Price

2720.00

The United States reported stronger-than-expected November Retail Sales, which rose by 0.7%, surpassing the forecasted 0.5%. However, this positive result failed to provide significant momentum for the U.S. dollar. On the downside, the Capacity Utilization Rate dropped to 76.8% in November, missing the estimated 77.3%. Industrial Production also contracted by 0.1% during the same period, falling short of the expected 0.3% growth, reflecting persistent challenges in the sector.

November's decline in industrial output signals continued contraction, underscoring the sluggish recovery in U.S. manufacturing. Additionally, the NAHB Housing Market Index for December is set to be released at 15:00 GMT, with expectations of a marginal increase to 47 from 46 in the previous month, signaling cautious optimism in the housing sector.

The yield on the U.S. 10-year Treasury note currently trades at 4.38%, retreating from a three-week high of 4.43%, highlighting reduced market risk appetite as investors anticipate the Federal Reserve's upcoming policy decision.

Attention now shifts firmly to the Federal Reserve, which is widely expected to lower its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points (bps) when it announces its monetary policy decision on Wednesday. Alongside this, the Fed will release its Summary of Economic Projections (SEP), providing updates on key forecasts for growth, inflation, employment, and its anticipated rate trajectory. The FedWatch tool from CME indicates a 99% probability of this rate cut, which has been largely priced into the market. Furthermore, speculation about rate cuts totaling 100 bps by 2025 continues to drive market sentiment.

While lower interest rates generally support gold prices by reducing the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets, the U.S. dollar’s relative stability has limited the metal's upward potential. Despite easing Treasury yields, gold remains under pressure as market participants weigh the implications of potential policy shifts and economic uncertainties.

Speculation is also rising that fiscal expansion policies under the upcoming U.S. administration could trigger higher inflation, potentially influencing Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) members to adjust their projections. Buying From Channel Lows Ahead of the Fed's Decision_1

Buying From Channel Lows Ahead of the Fed's Decision_1

Technical Analysis

Gold appears to be trading within a lateral channel, defined by resistance around $2,721, a level reached on two separate occasions—November 24 and December 11. Support is marked by the November 25 low of $2,605, followed by a slightly higher low of $2,612 on December 8, signaling bullish resilience as no new lows have been formed.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has dropped to 32, approaching oversold territory, and is accompanied by divergence at current levels. Previous lows saw higher RSI readings, suggesting weakening bearish momentum. Meanwhile, the 100- and 200-period moving averages hover just above $2,654, reinforcing the potential for continued range-bound movements and providing a pivot for possible rebounds.

A sustained break below $2,605 would invalidate this setup, opening the door to further declines. Conversely, a rebound from current levels could aim for the $2,721 resistance zone once again. For now, traders should monitor these key levels closely, as they are likely to shape gold's next significant move.

Trading Recommendations

Trading direction: Buy

Entry price: 2624

Target price: 2720

Stop loss: 2590

Validity: Dec 27, 2024 15:00:00

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Adam

Forex

Summary:

The market was pressured by the recovery of the AUD thanks to positive economic data in Australia and a stable monetary policy outlook from the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). Meanwhile, the EUR remained under pressure from the dovish policy decisions of the European Central Bank (ECB)...

SELL EURAUD

Close Time

CLOSED

1.65560

Entry Price

1.65000

1.65900

1.66779 +0.00693 +0.42%

34.0

Pips

Loss

1.65000

1.65900

Exit Price

1.65560

Entry Price

1.65900

On December 18, 2024, the EUR/AUD exchange rate was trading at 1.6556, down slightly from the previous session. The AUD was supported by positive factors, including strong labor data and higher prices for iron ore - Australia's main export - over the past week. On the contrary, the EUR was under pressure after the ECB decided to keep interest rates low and signaled continued loose monetary policy to stimulate the Eurozone economy.

Recent data shows that the Australian economy remains stable with the unemployment rate falling to 3.9%, lower than the forecast of 4.1%. This reinforces confidence in the Australian economic outlook and increases the attractiveness of the AUD compared to the EUR.

Market psychology

Current market sentiment is biased towards the AUD as investors value Australia’s economic stability over the uncertainties in the Eurozone. Investors have reacted positively to Australian employment data and expectations that the RBA will keep interest rates on hold in the near term, rather than cutting them as some had previously predicted.

Meanwhile, the EUR continues to be under pressure from internal factors such as slow economic growth and inflation below the ECB's target. With the ECB maintaining a dovish stance, capital is gradually shifting from the EUR to higher-yielding assets such as the AUD.

Technical analysis

EUR/AUD Drops Sharply: Will the Downtrend Continue?_1

On the H1 chart, the EUR/AUD pair is hovering below the Ichimoku cloud – a negative signal that suggests the downtrend is still dominant in the short term.

Price is below the Ichimoku cloud, confirming the bearish trend. The future cloud is also tilted to the negative with a clear downward slope.

The price is currently hovering near the middle of the Bollinger Bands but has yet to break above the resistance zone at 1.6575. The Bollinger Bands have not widened significantly, suggesting that price volatility may remain moderate.

The Stochastic indicator (5,3,3) has left the overbought zone and is crossing below the signal line, signaling the possibility of further downward correction in the short term.

If the price fails to break above the resistance zone at 1.6575, the downtrend will continue with the first target being the support zone at 1.6500 – where the MA50 line on the H1 timeframe converges.

Trading Recommendations

Based on technical and fundamental analysis, EUR/AUD is in a clear downtrend with the pressure from the recovery of AUD and the pressure from the ECB's dovish monetary policy on EUR. If the exchange rate fails to break the resistance zone at 1.6575, the downtrend is likely to continue in the short term.

Entry: Sell at current levels around 1.6556 or when price retests strong resistance at 1.6575.

Take Profit: Set profit target at nearest support zone at 1.6500 or deeper at 1.6450 if selling pressure increases.

Stop Loss: Place stop loss above the key resistance at 1.6590 to protect capital in case price breaks to the upside.

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Adam

Commodity

Summary:

On December 18, 2024, Brent crude oil prices were trading around $72.2/barrel, after touching a key support level of $72.0/barrel. The market is affected by factors such as weak demand prospects from China, fluctuations in the US dollar, and expectations that OPEC+ will maintain production cuts. In the coming time, the trend of Brent crude oil will depend on its ability to maintain this support zone and technical signals showing potential for recovery...

BUY BRENT

EXP

EXPIRED

72.280

Entry Price

73.500

71.500

72.627 +0.345 +0.48%

Pips

EXPIRED

71.500

72.387

Exit Price

72.280

Entry Price

73.500

On December 18, 2024, Brent crude oil prices were trading around $72.2/barrel, after falling from a recent peak of $73.0/barrel. This is an important support zone in the context of the market being pressured by the weak demand outlook due to slowing economic growth in China - the world's largest oil importer - and signs of increased supply from the US, Canada and Brazil.

However, oil prices also received support from geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and production cuts by OPEC+. The alliance has pledged to maintain production cuts until the end of 2024 and may extend them into 2025 to stabilize oil prices.

The weakness in the US dollar in the last two sessions also contributed to the support of Brent crude oil prices. The greenback fell after US inflation data showed that price pressures are easing, raising expectations that the Fed will not raise interest rates again in the current cycle.

Market psychology

Market sentiment remains sharply divided. On one side are concerns about weak demand, particularly from China, where the economy is recovering more slowly than expected from the Covid-19 pandemic. Recent data showed that China’s industrial output grew by just 3.8% in November, below the forecast of 4.2%, raising concerns about oil demand in the near term.

On the other hand, expectations that OPEC+ will continue to maintain its production cut policy have created bullish momentum for Brent crude. Recent trading data also shows increased buying pressure around the support level of $72.0/barrel, reflecting investors' expectations for a short-term recovery.

Technical analysis

The Stochastic indicator on the H1 chart has exited the oversold zone, indicating that selling pressure has eased and a short-term recovery is likely.

Brent Oil Rebounds from $72 Support: Is the Uptrend Sustainable?_1

This is the lowest level of the past week and is the convergence zone of the lower Bollinger Bands along with the important horizontal support line.

The price is currently below the Ichimoku cloud, indicating that the short-term trend is still bearish. However, if the price breaks above the middle Bollinger Bands at around $72.8/barrel and enters the resistance cloud, the bullish reversal signal will be clearer.

The RSI on the H1 chart is currently below 30 – oversold zone – indicating a potential bounce in the short term.

The Stochastic indicator (5,3,3) has crossed above the signal line in the oversold zone, reinforcing the buy signal. If the price holds above the support level of 72.0 USD/barrel and breaks through the resistance zone at 72.8 USD/barrel (the middle band of Bollinger Bands), the next target will be the strong resistance zone at 73.5 USD/barrel – where the MA50 line on the H1 frame converges.

Conversely, if the price convincingly breaks the $72.0/bbl support, bearish pressure could drag the price down to deeper support at $71.0/bbl – which corresponds to the next Fibonacci extension level.

Trading Recommendations

Based on technical and fundamental analysis, Brent crude oil price is currently at an important support level with the potential for a short-term recovery if it holds above USD 72.0/barrel. However, the market still faces many unpredictable fluctuations due to unclear supply-demand balance and complex geopolitical factors.

Entry: Buy at current levels around $72.2/bbl or when price retests strong support at $72.0/bbl.

Take Profit: Set profit target at nearest resistance zone of 73.5 USD/barrel or higher at 74.0 USD/barrel if bullish momentum is strong.

Stop Loss: Place stop loss below the key support level at $71.5/barrel to protect capital in case price breaks down.

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Eva Chen

Central Bank

Forex

Summary:

The market anticipates that the likelihood of the Bank of Japan (BOJ) raising interest rates this Thursday is below 20%, a significant drop from the previous expectation of 70%. As the expectations for a rate hike diminish, the yen has once again weakened, potentially compelling the BOJ to take action.

BUY USDJPY

EXP

PENDING

152.500

Entry Price

159.250

149.300

156.302 -1.112 -0.71%

Pips

PENDING

149.300

Exit Price

152.500

Entry Price

159.250

Fundamentals

This week, despite the meetings held by the central banks of the US and the UK, the BOJ is expected to take center stage. The anticipated normalization of monetary policy by the BOJ has garnered significant attention, making this week's meeting particularly noteworthy.

For several months, the BOJ has been advocating for a more proactive policy shift. In 2024, the BOJ has already implemented several adjustments to its monetary policy. Notably, in July, the BOJ raised its policy interest rate to approximately 0.25% while simultaneously halting its quantitative and qualitative monetary easing measures, as well as its yield curve control framework.

Two weeks ago, the market estimated a roughly 70% probability of a 25 basis point rate hike by the BOJ. At that time, our assessment was that this did not align with the BOJ's policy trajectory, given its historical reputation for indecisiveness. However, over the past two weeks, numerous reports have emerged, leading the market to believe that the likelihood of a 0.25% rate increase by the BOJ this Thursday is now less than 20%.

The BOJ indeed has a tendency to create surprises when least expected. Over the past few months, a significant challenge for the BOJ has been the weakness of the yen, which has once again depreciated in the last two weeks as market expectations for interest rate hikes have diminished.

With the USDJPY currently approaching the psychological threshold of 155.00, will the BOJ take action? We maintain the view that the BOJ will remain on hold during this week's meeting and will adopt a flexible approach in the new year.

Historically, the BOJ has occasionally relied on verbal intervention to stabilize exchange rates, but that strategy seems to have passed. The BOJ may choose to follow market trends, especially as it appears to have recognized the inevitability of a global trade war in the wake of Trump's administration, prompting a response through currency depreciation to counter rising tariffs.

However, the possibility of unexpected developments cannot be ruled out, which adds to the excitement surrounding this week's meeting.

It's Merely a Matter of Time as the Upward Channel Has Been Established_1

Technical Analysis

Technically, the USDJPY has been experiencing a robust upward movement since it bottomed out around 148.600 on December 3.

The uptrend has been rapid, gaining momentum after breaking through the descending trendline. Currently, ahead of the BOJ's meeting, bulls appear to be firmly in control.

The 50-day SMA is on the verge of crossing above the 100-day SMA, which can be interpreted as a bullish golden cross pattern indicating potential further upside. Although this is a lagging indicator, it does suggest that a bullish momentum has developed for the USDJPY in December

The uptrend from the rebound at 148.64 remains intact, with intraday bias leaning towards retesting the high of 156.74. If this level is sustained, it would reinstate the entire uptrend that commenced from 139.57, targeting 159.25.

On the downside, a break below the weak support at 152.84 would shift the intraday bias to neutral. However, as long as the support at 148.64 holds, the risk will continue to favor the upside.

Trading Recommendations

Trading Direction: Buy

Entry Price: 152.50

Target Price: 159.25

Stop Loss: 149.30

Valid until: January 1, 2025 23:55:00

Support: 152.20, 151.00, 150.34, 149.35

Resistance: 153.84, 155.89, 156.74, 157.85

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Eva Chen

Central Bank

Forex

Summary:

The GBPUSD rebounded to 1.2700 on Tuesday. UK data revealed that the ILO unemployment rate remained stable at 4.3% for the three months ending in October, while the annual wage inflation rate rose to 5.2%, providing support for the pound.

BUY GBPUSD

Close Time

CLOSED

1.27062

Entry Price

1.30500

1.25500

1.25573 +0.00575 +0.46%

156.2

Pips

Loss

1.25500

Exit Price

1.27062

Entry Price

1.30500

Fundamentals

Signs of weakness have emerged in the UK labor market for November, with employment numbers decreasing by 35,000 MoM to 30.4 million, reflecting a decline of 0.1%. Meanwhile, the YoY growth rate of median monthly earnings has slowed to 6.3%, down from 7.9% the previous month.

Over the three months leading up to October, the employment rate saw a slight increase of 0.1 percentage points to 74.9%, while the unemployment rate also edged up to 4.3%, rising by 0.1 percentage points. The inactivity rate has decreased by 0.2 percentage points to 21.7%, indicating some progress in reintegrating inactive workers back into the labor force.

Overall, wage growth remains robust; for the three months ending in October, average earnings excluding bonuses rose by 5.2% YoY, surpassing the previous month's 4.9%. Including bonuses, the average wage also increased by 5.2% YoY, up from 4.4% last month. This rise in income may exert pressure on the Bank of England (BOE) as policymakers strive to balance the need to temper inflation with persistently high wage growth.

MARKET WATCH: The BOE faces a challenging balancing act as it prepares for its next policy decision. Despite signs of contraction in the UK economy, the latest inflation expectations survey from the BOE highlights a growing public concern regarding inflation. The average inflation expectation for the coming year has risen from 2.7% in August 2024 to 3%, while the long-term expectation (over five years) has climbed to 3.4%, up from 3.2% in the previous survey.

The rise in inflation expectations is critical for policymakers, as the public's outlook on future inflation can significantly influence current consumption patterns. If individuals anticipate an increase in prices, they may choose to boost their spending now, thereby elevating demand and further driving up actual inflation. This creates a self-reinforcing cycle.

Despite these inflation concerns, the BOE is under increasing pressure to lower interest rates, with the market forecasting three to four rate cuts by 2025. This action aims to stimulate economic growth amid a slowdown; however, inflation risks constrain the BOE's capacity to act.

The BOE's statement this week must carefully balance these conflicting dynamics - addressing inflation concerns while avoiding additional suppression of the economic recovery.

Technical Analysis

The GBPUSD continues to trade within a range, maintaining a neutral bias for the day. The relative strength index in the 4H timeframe is slightly above 50, indicating seller hesitation.

On the downside, a break below the weak support level at 1.2615 would suggest that the rebound from 1.2486 has concluded. This would likely lead to a retest of such a low, with a breakout targeting the crowded support range at 1.2298.

However, a break above 1.2810 would shift the bias to the upside, facilitating a more robust rebound.

Trading Recommendations

Trading Direction: Buy

Entry Price: 1.2650

Target Price: 1.3050

Stop Loss: 1.2550

Valid until: January 1, 2025 23:55:00

Support: 1.2635, 1.2615, 1.2565

Resistance: 1.2765, 1.2810, 1.2835

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Eva Chen

Commodity

Central Bank

Summary:

The gold price is struggling to gain any significant momentum, remaining within a narrow trading range. Expectations of a less dovish stance from the Federal Reserve and rising U.S. Securities yields are constraining the appeal of non-yielding gold.

BUY XAUUSD

Close Time

CLOSED

2640.31

Entry Price

2706.00

2600.00

2623.41 +28.97 +1.12%

44.5

Pips

Profit

2600.00

2644.76

Exit Price

2640.31

Entry Price

2706.00

Fundamentals

This Monday and Tuesday, trading in the precious metals market was subdued, with gold prices experiencing a slight decline, followed closely by silver prices. However, the prices of these two precious metals have not deviated significantly from critical levels, as the market is currently in a phase of liquidation and repositioning ahead of the upcoming U.S. data releases.

The lack of market activity has led spot gold to fall below US$2,640 for the first time since December 9, marking a daily decrease of 0.52%. Spot silver has also seen a decline of over 1.00% during the day, currently priced at US$30.21.

Today's primary external market influences include a modest strengthening of the U.S. Dollar Index (USDX) and rising U.S. Securities yields. Goldman Sachs no longer anticipates that the Fed will implement another rate cut in January and expects that Powell will convey this message during this week's Federal Open Market Committee statement and press conference.

The preliminary reading of the U.S. S&P Global Purchasing Managers' Index released on Monday exceeded expectations, reinforcing the view of stable economic growth in the fourth quarter and indicating that the Federal Reserve is likely to gradually ease monetary policy by 2025.

Later today, U.S. retail sales are expected to reflect robust consumer spending in November. Against this backdrop, investors remain confident that the Fed will lower interest rates on Wednesday, although a hawkish forward guidance is anticipated. This has led to an increase in U.S. Treasury yields and put pressure on gold prices.

Despite this, gold bulls maintain a recent technical advantage, although it has diminished somewhat. Prices are still in an uptrend in the 1D timeframe, although with limited movement. The next upward target for the bulls is US$2,706. The first resistance level is today's high of US$2,658, followed by the overnight high of US$2,664. The next near-term target for the bears is the strong support level at US$2,629. The first support level is today's low of US$2,637, followed by US$2,630.

Uptrend Remains Intact Despite the Weak Momentum_1

Technical Analysis

Technically, the US$2,643-US$2,637 range currently appears to safeguard gold prices before they potentially slide towards the critical level of US$2,629. Following that, the monthly low range of US$2,614-US$2.,600 will be closely monitored; a decisive break of this range would be interpreted as a new bearish trigger, paving the way for a significant reversal in gold prices.

On the other hand, today's peak at US$2,658 and the overnight high of US$2,664 will continue to serve as immediate resistance for bulls aiming to test the US$2,678 level. A break of this resistance could lead to sustained upward momentum, with gold prices likely aiming to reclaim the US$2,700 threshold. Any subsequent rise is expected to encounter resistance at US$2,706, and a breakout above this level would signal the potential for greater upward movement.

Trading Recommendations

Trading Direction: Buy

Entry Price: 2632

Target Price: 2706

Stop Loss: 2600

Valid until: January 1, 2025 23:55:00

Support: 2632, 2629, 2614

Resistance: 2645, 2658, 2664

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Warren Takunda

Commodity

Traders' Opinions

Summary:

Silver prices have dropped to a two-week low of $30.30 as bond yields climb, driven by expectations of a less aggressive Federal Reserve rate-cutting cycle in 2025.

SELL XAGUSD

Close Time

CLOSED

30.300

Entry Price

29.600

30.800

29.524 +0.505 +1.74%

11.5

Pips

Profit

29.600

30.185

Exit Price

30.300

Entry Price

30.800

Silver prices have fallen to a two-week low, currently hovering near $30.30, as bond yields continue their upward momentum ahead of the Federal Reserve's much-anticipated policy decision. The white metal has struggled to maintain momentum as the US Treasury bond yields extend their winning streak, further exacerbating concerns about the outlook for non-yielding assets like silver. The expectation that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates by 25 basis points (bps) to 4.25%-4.50% on Wednesday is failing to provide much-needed support for silver, as market participants increasingly brace for a slightly hawkish tone regarding the Fed’s longer-term rate outlook.

Silver’s decline is largely tied to the rise in US Treasury yields, which continue to dominate market sentiment. On Tuesday, the 10-year US Treasury yield extended its rally for a seventh consecutive day, surging to near 4.42%. This persistent rise in yields has put downward pressure on silver, as higher yields increase the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets like the precious metal. With US Treasury yields benefiting from expectations of a more gradual policy easing by the Fed in 2025, the outlook for silver remains fragile.

The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the value of the US dollar against a basket of major currencies, has also moved higher, settling around the 107.00 mark. A stronger dollar typically dampens demand for commodities priced in dollars, further weighing on silver prices. The correlation between a rising dollar and weakening silver has been a consistent theme in recent months, and the ongoing strength of the greenback suggests that silver could face continued challenges.

The Federal Reserve is expected to announce a 25 basis point cut in interest rates on Wednesday, taking the key borrowing rate down to a range of 4.25%-4.50%. This would mark a shift in the Fed’s policy stance, as the central bank has been tightening monetary policy for most of the year to combat inflation. However, investors are increasingly cautious about the pace of future rate cuts, particularly with inflationary pressures remaining resilient.

A Bloomberg survey indicates that the Fed may reduce rates by three times in 2025, but the pace of easing will be more gradual than initially anticipated. This comes as economists express growing concerns about inflationary risks, with many believing that price pressures may persist longer than expected. While the risk of a recession has eased somewhat, the upside risks to inflation are still significant, leaving the Fed in a delicate balancing act as it navigates the road ahead.

Market participants are closely watching for any signs from Fed Chairman Jerome Powell during his press conference following the policy decision. Investors will be looking for guidance on how the Fed plans to navigate future economic challenges, including potential fiscal policies under the incoming administration of President Donald Trump. Trade, immigration, and tax policies are all factors that could have significant inflationary impacts, and Powell’s remarks could provide crucial insight into how these factors might influence the central bank’s monetary stance.

Technical Analysis

From a technical standpoint, silver is showing signs of sustained weakness. The metal’s recent drop below the 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at around $31.00 has set the stage for further declines. On Tuesday, silver briefly dipped to $30.30, marking a two-week low and reinforcing the bearish sentiment.

Silver’s price action has shown consistent negative trades, with the metal continuing to move away from the $30.63 level. This movement suggests that the bearish trend could extend for the remainder of the day, with the next key support level at $29.63. If silver maintains its position below $30.63, the downtrend is likely to continue, with $29.60 being the next target for bears.

The trading range for silver on Tuesday is expected to be between the support level at $29.90 and the resistance at $30.80. If the price fails to break above $30.80, the likelihood of further downside pressure remains high.

TRADE RECOMMENDATION

SELL SILVER

ENTRY PRICE: 30.30

STOP LOSS: 30.80

TAKE PROFIT: 29.60

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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