CAD/CHF Gains After US Election: Will the Uptrend Continue?

Forex

Summary:

On November 6, 2024, the CAD/CHF pair was trading around 0.6289 as the market reacted to the US presidential election results. The Canadian Dollar (CAD) received support from expectations of expansionary US fiscal policy, while the Swiss Franc (CHF) remained a safe-haven asset...

BUY CADCHF

EXP

TRADING

0.62890

Entry Price

0.63150

0.62700

0.62967 +0.00104 +0.17%

0.0

Pips

Flat

0.62700

Exit Price

0.62890

Entry Price

0.63150

On November 6, 2024, CAD/CHF was trading around 0.6289 , up slightly from the previous trading session. Following the US presidential election results, the Canadian dollar received support from expectations that expansionary fiscal policies under Donald Trump would boost global economic growth, especially for oil-exporting countries like Canada. Crude oil prices - one of the key factors affecting the CAD - also rose sharply, creating positive momentum for the currency.

Meanwhile, the Swiss franc has maintained its status as a safe haven asset amid volatile global financial markets. However, with increased risk sentiment in the market after the US election, demand for the CHF has somewhat decreased, helping CAD/CHF maintain its upward trend.

The Bank of Canada (BoC) is expected to leave interest rates unchanged at its upcoming meeting, but investors are still closely watching for signals on future monetary policy, especially as inflation in Canada shows signs of cooling.

Market psychology

Investor sentiment is currently tilted towards risk as the US election results have brought optimism to financial markets. Investors expect the new administration to continue implementing economic stimulus measures, creating a favorable environment for riskier assets such as the CAD. This has led to capital outflows from safe haven assets such as the CHF.

The Fear and Greed Index is currently at high levels, indicating that market sentiment is biased towards greed as investors seek opportunities from the global economic recovery after the US election. At the same time, the VIX index (a measure of market volatility) has slightly decreased, reflecting easing concerns about short-term systemic risks.

Trading data shows that large investors are increasing their long positions in CAD/CHF to take advantage of the CAD's bullish trend amid rising crude oil prices and a positive economic outlook from North America.

Technical analysis

On the M15 chart of CAD/CHF, the current price is hovering around 0.6289 after breaking above the important resistance at 0.6285. The current price is in the middle of the Bollinger Bands, indicating a strong potential move if the price breaks above the next resistance or support. The Stochastic on the M15 chart shows a strong buy signal as the indicator has exited the oversold zone and is currently at 68 , signaling a potential further upside.

The current price is above the Ichimoku cloud, further reinforcing the short-term bullish trend signal. The next resistance level is identified around the 0.6305 area, while the nearest support is located at the 0.6270 area.

Trading Recommendations

Based on fundamental and technical analysis:

Entry : Buy at current price around 0.6289

Take Profit : Set profit target at 0.6305 or further at strong resistance zone 0.6315

Stop Loss : Stop loss if price falls below the important support level at 0.6270 to protect capital from the risk of deeper correction.

Investors should closely monitor developments from the Bank of Canada (BoC) and Swiss National Bank (SNB) meetings in the coming weeks and adjust their trading strategies accordingly. Risk management is crucial as markets can be volatile on unexpected news related to monetary policy and crude oil prices.

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Adam

Forex

Summary:

On November 6, 2024, USD/JPY saw strong growth following the US presidential election results. With Donald Trump leading the way and the possibility of the Republican Party controlling Congress, the USD received strong support from expectations of new fiscal policies and rising bond yields...

BUY USDJPY

EXP

TRADING

154.137

Entry Price

155.000

153.500

154.397 -0.226 -0.15%

0.0

Pips

Flat

153.500

Exit Price

154.137

Entry Price

155.000

On November 6, 2024, USD/JPY was trading around 154.13, rising sharply after the US presidential election results showed Donald Trump leading the race. This has created a wave of USD buying on expectations of new fiscal policies that could include tax cuts and increased government spending, which would boost the US economy in the short term. In addition, US government bond yields have jumped to their highest level since July this year, with the 10-year bond yield reaching 4.5%, increasing the attractiveness of the USD compared to the Japanese Yen. Meanwhile, the Bank of Japan (BoJ) has maintained its easy monetary policy despite signs of tightening in the near future. However, uncertainty over the possibility of implementing these tightening measures due to the political situation in Japan has caused the Yen to continue to weaken. The difference in monetary policy between the US and Japan continues to be a key factor driving the USD/JPY exchange rate higher.

Market psychology

Investor sentiment is currently tilted towards risk as the US election results have brought optimism to financial markets, especially the US stock market. The "Trump Trade" has returned on expectations that new fiscal stimulus measures will boost the economy and create a favorable environment for the US dollar. This is also reinforced by the sharp rise in bond yields, causing investors to divert capital from safe-haven assets such as the Japanese Yen. The Fear and Greed Index is currently at a high level, indicating that market sentiment is tilted towards greed as investors seek opportunities from the recovery of the US economy after the election. At the same time, the VIX index (a measure of market volatility) has decreased slightly, reflecting a reduction in concerns about short-term systemic risks. Trading data showed that large investors are increasing their long positions in USD/JPY to take advantage of the dollar's bullish trend amid higher bond yields and expectations of expansionary fiscal policy under Trump.

Technical analysis

On the M15 chart of USD/JPY (as shown in the image), the price is currently hovering around 154.13 after breaking above the key resistance at 154.00. This is the highest level since July 2024 and marks a strong rally of more than 300 pips in just a few hours after the election results. The current price is above the upper Bollinger Bands, indicating a strong trend and the possibility of further increases if the price stays above the resistance. The Stochastic on the M15 chart is in the overbought zone (above 80), but there is no clear sign of a reversal yet. This shows that buying pressure is still strong and the price may continue to maintain the uptrend in the short term. The price is also above the Ichimoku cloud, further reinforcing the current bullish signal.

The next resistance is identified around the 154.50 - 154.70 zone, while the nearest support is located in the 153.50 - 153.70 zone.

Trading Recommendations

Based on fundamental and technical analysis:

Entry : Buy at current price around 154.14.

Take Profit : Set target to take profit at 154.70 or further at strong resistance zone 155.00.

Stop Loss : Stop loss if price falls below the important support level at 153.50 to protect capital from the risk of deeper correction.

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Eva Chen

Commodity

Political

Summary:

Former President Trump defeated current Vice President Harris to win the 2024 U.S. presidential election. The U.S. dollar strengthened, leading to a significant sell-off of gold as investors sought higher-risk assets.

SELL XAUUSD

EXP

TRADING

2697.29

Entry Price

2625.00

2763.00

2656.73 -1.96 -0.07%

0.0

Pips

Flat

2625.00

Exit Price

2697.29

Entry Price

2763.00

Fundamentals

The latest results of the 2024 U.S. presidential election indicate that Republican candidate Donald Trump has secured 277 electoral votes, making him the 47th president of the U.S. As a result, the U.S. dollar has surged above 105.00, while gold has faced significant sell-offs, dropping to US$2,701, a decline of 1.32%.

The factors contributing to the decline in gold prices include the long-term favorable outlook for the U.S. dollar following Trump's victory. Trump has pledged to impose a 10% tariff on imported goods, with China expected to bear the brunt of these increased tariffs, alongside a reduction in corporate taxes. This scenario is likely to stimulate domestic investment, job creation, and overall demand, thereby heightening inflationary risks.

With Trump's victory now a certainty, investors are shifting their focus to the monetary policy decision that the Federal Reserve will announce on Thursday. According to the FedWatch tool from the Chicago Mercantile Exchange, the Fed is anticipated to lower interest rates by 25 basis points to a range of 4.50%-4.75%. Following Trump's win, investors will closely monitor the Fed's guidance on interest rates.

Overall, concerns regarding deficit spending and expectations of a more accommodative monetary policy from the Fed continue to drive up U.S. Treasury yields, prompting capital to flow out of non-yielding gold assets. Additionally, a surge in risk appetite, as evidenced by the strong rise in U.S. stock index futures, suggests that the path of least resistance for safe-haven assets like gold is downward.

Path with the Least Risk in the 4H Timeframe Is Downward_1

Technical Analysis

On Wednesday, the gold price was heavily sold off to US$2,701 as Trump appeared poised to secure 270 electoral votes, marking the lower end of the previous range. It continues to show a downward trend in the 4H timeframe. The relative strength index is declining in tandem with the price, indicating a bearish trend accompanied by selling pressure.

With the critical neckline being breached, and in accordance with the principle that "The Trend is Your Friend," the gold price may weaken further in the short term. This movement could drive the XAUUSD down to the next support level at US$2,668, with additional declines potentially extending to US$2,625 to complete the formation of a "head and shoulders" pattern.

Nevertheless, from a medium to long-term perspective, gold remains in an upward trend and still holds the potential for a reversal, although it faces significant risks associated with testing unexpected major upward cycles. However, there are currently no technical indicators suggesting that such a scenario will materialize. A pullback is expected in the short term.

Trading Recommendations

Trading Direction: Sell

Entry Price: 2717

Target Price: 2625

Stop Loss: 2763

Deadline: November 21, 2024 23:55:00

Support: 2701, 2685, 2668, 2653

Resistance: 2717, 2726, 2739, 2750

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Alan

Forex

Political

Summary:

The U.S. presidential election is coming to an end, and currently, the probability of Trump's victory continues to rise. As a result, the U.S. dollar has been strengthening, pushing the USDCNH to surpass 7.19.

BUY USDCNH

EXP

PENDING

7.16100

Entry Price

7.29900

7.08600

7.19516 -0.00811 -0.11%

Pips

PENDING

7.08600

Exit Price

7.16100

Entry Price

7.29900

Fundamentals

The U.S. elections are coming to an end. As of the current European trading session, Trump is leading Harris by a significant margin. This has resulted in a strengthening of the U.S. dollar, which has led to a surge in the USDCNH, currently showing an increase of 1.18%. If the elections conclude today with Trump as the new president, the U.S. dollar may continue to rise.

However, it is important to note that China will hold a National People's Congress Standing Committee session from November 4 to November 8, during which the market widely anticipates the announcement of substantial fiscal stimulus policies. Analysts suggest that the outcome of the U.S. elections could influence the magnitude of these policies; if Trump is elected, the scale of stimulus may increase by 10% to 20% compared to current plans, potentially bolstering the CNH's exchange rate.

According to The Wall Street Journal, the specific scale of the policies may be revealed on the final day of the meeting. Although details remain unclear, the most optimistic market expectations suggest that the stimulus could reach as high as 10 trillion yuan.

Technical Analysis

A Surge in USD Is Expected Following the Winding Up of the U.S. Elections_1

During today's Asian trading session, the USDCNH has experienced a significant surge, with the maximum increase exceeding 900 points. The current exchange rate is trading around 7.1750.

In the 1D timeframe, the surge in the U.S. dollar is attributed to the increased probability of Donald Trump being re-elected as president. The USDCNH has broken through the previous high of 7.1635, indicating further upward potential, with the next target possibly testing the 7.30 level.

In terms of short-term trading strategy, given the current high increase, it is not recommended to chase the uptrend. Instead, it is recommended to wait for the USDCNH to stabilize around 7.1550 before considering going long.

Trading Recommendations

Trading Direction: Buy

Entry Price: 7.1610

Target Price: 7.2990

Stop Loss: 7.0860

Deadline: November 20, 2024 15:00:00

Support: 7.1635, 7.1483, 7.1166

Resistance: 7.1922, 7.2410, 7.3107

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Warren Takunda

Economic

Summary:

The Pound Sterling faces significant losses against the US Dollar, driven by Trump's lead in swing states and investor anticipation of a Fed rate cut. A further weakening of the GBP is expected, with a bearish outlook likely to persist.

SELL GBPUSD

EXP

TRADING

1.29000

Entry Price

1.27350

1.30000

1.29094 +0.00310 +0.24%

0.0

Pips

Flat

1.27350

Exit Price

1.29000

Entry Price

1.30000

The Pound Sterling (GBP) has taken a significant hit against the US Dollar (USD), plunging to near 1.2850 in early London trading hours on Wednesday. The dramatic fall follows investor reaction to exit poll results showing Republican candidate Donald Trump in a commanding position, particularly in key swing states. Trump's electoral momentum, including wins in North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Georgia, has set the stage for a potential reshaping of market dynamics, further fueling the rise of the US Dollar.

According to reports from the Associated Press, Trump has been declared the winner in crucial swing states and holds a leading position in others, including Michigan, Arizona, Nevada, and Wisconsin. With this, Trump's path to the White House has widened significantly, sending ripples through global financial markets. The market's immediate reaction reflects investor sentiment skewed toward a perceived risk-off outlook, evident in the sharp decline in risk-sensitive currencies, with the GBP being one of the hardest-hit.

This market reaction is driven by investors' growing apprehension over the potential economic policies under a second Trump administration. Trump's historical stance on protectionist trade policies, including increased import tariffs, raises concerns about trade relations with the UK, a major US trading partner. These tariffs could exacerbate export challenges for the UK economy, which is already grappling with the fallout from Brexit and ongoing global supply chain disruptions. Furthermore, Trump's pledge to lower corporate taxes, should he secure the presidency, is expected to solidify the Federal Reserve’s hawkish monetary stance, creating further pressure on currencies such as the GBP.

As the situation evolves, investors are rapidly shifting capital into ‘Trump trades’, betting on the potential economic shifts expected under a Trump-led administration. This capital flight into the US Dollar is pushing the Greenback to fresh highs, with the US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the USD against six major currencies, touching a four-month high of around 105.30.

In this risk-off environment, the Pound, along with other risk-sensitive currencies, has faced a battering. The GBP/USD pair, once hovering comfortably above the 1.3000 mark, now teeters around 1.2850, signaling a bearish outlook for the British currency in the immediate term. Investors are increasingly hedging against economic uncertainties, adjusting their portfolios to reflect the potential disruption in global trade flows that a Trump presidency could bring.

The US presidential election isn't the only event capturing investor attention this week. Thursday's Federal Reserve meeting is set to add another layer of complexity to the market's outlook. The Fed is widely expected to announce a 25 basis points (bps) interest rate cut, reducing the target range to 4.50%-4.75%. This decision is likely to inject additional volatility into the markets as traders digest the implications of this dovish policy shift amid a tight labor market and stubborn inflation.

Investors will closely scrutinize the Fed’s accompanying commentary for hints on future monetary policy directions. Despite the anticipated rate cut, the Fed's language on future tightening could add a hawkish twist to its guidance, which would likely underpin further USD strength. The market’s focus on US economic health and the Fed's trajectory of policy will only intensify as the election results unfold, placing the US Dollar in the driver’s seat for global currency markets.

Technical Analysis

From a technical perspective, the GBP/USD pair has now reached a critical juncture. The price has successfully hit the first bearish target at 1.2866, and it is currently pressing further lower, maintaining a negative bias. This suggests that the current downward pressure is likely to persist, with the next support level expected around 1.2735. This marks a continuation of the prevailing bearish correction for the pair.

Traders should remain cautious and consider a bearish outlook for the foreseeable future, especially if the price fails to break below the 1.2866 support. A failure to confirm a break at this level could potentially lead to a brief recovery, testing the 1.3000 resistance level before any subsequent attempts to push lower.

TRADE RECEOMMENDATION

SELL GBPUSD

ENTRY PRICE: 1.2900

STOP LOSS: 1.3000

TAKE PROFIT: 1.2735

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Warren Takunda

Economic

Summary:

The EUR/USD currency pair suffered significant losses as the US dollar surged following Donald Trump’s apparent victory in the US presidential race.

SELL EURUSD

EXP

TRADING

1.07600

Entry Price

1.06000

1.08400

1.07343 +0.00061 +0.06%

0.0

Pips

Flat

1.06000

Exit Price

1.07600

Entry Price

1.08400

The EUR/USD pair is experiencing significant turbulence, driven by the unfolding political landscape and shifting economic forecasts. With just days remaining before the US presidential election results are formally declared, markets are bracing for a potentially dramatic shift in economic policy, particularly as Republican candidate Donald Trump appears poised to take the Senate and secure a victory over Democratic rival Kamala Harris. This political shift is reverberating across financial markets, with the US Dollar (USD) maintaining a strong hold while the Euro (EUR) faces substantial pressure.

As of Wednesday’s European session, EUR/USD nosedived to 1.0700, marking the lowest level in over four months. The pair showed a slight recovery to 1.0750, yet the overarching sentiment remains bearish. According to reports from The Associated Press, Trump is inching closer to securing the 270 electoral votes needed to form a government, with key battleground states showing a Republican surge. The political tides have shifted in favor of the GOP, adding volatility to market expectations.

The consequences of Trump’s victory are far-reaching, not just politically but also economically. Market participants have been pricing in the ramifications of Trump’s policy proposals, particularly his protectionist stance. His planned hikes on tariffs and promises to lower corporate taxes have raised concerns that such measures could create an environment of heightened inflation and business growth, which, while benefiting the US Dollar, will hurt the economies of major US trading partners such as the Eurozone, the UK, China, and Canada. The US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the greenback against a basket of six major currencies, surged to 105.30, further underlining the USD’s strengthening position in the wake of Trump’s advancing victory.

From a broader perspective, the economic outlook for the Eurozone is increasingly fragile. Analysts have warned that the implementation of Trump’s protectionist policies could deal a heavy blow to European economies. Dutch bank economists estimate that tariffs under Trump’s administration could shave off up to 1.5 percentage points from the Eurozone’s GDP, translating into a potential €260 billion loss based on the EU’s projected GDP of €17.4 trillion for 2024.

The Euro, already grappling with weak economic data and low inflationary pressures, finds itself in a particularly vulnerable position. There is growing concern that the European Central Bank (ECB) will be forced into a more aggressive stance on monetary policy to counteract the negative effects of Trump’s policies on European growth. The ECB is expected to lower interest rates further, with analysts predicting that the Deposit Facility Rate could be cut to near-zero levels by 2025. A 50-basis point rate cut at the ECB’s December meeting is now widely expected, marking the fourth such reduction this year.

As the Federal Reserve prepares to make its next interest rate decision on Thursday, investors will closely scrutinize any signals regarding the broader economic impact of Trump’s victory. According to the CME FedWatch tool, market participants have priced in a 25-basis point rate cut, lowering the Fed’s target range to 4.50%-4.75%. While this would be the second consecutive rate cut by the Federal Reserve, it is notably smaller than the 50 basis points cut delivered in September. With the US Dollar firmly on the rise, the Fed’s monetary policy is playing a critical role in maintaining the greenback’s strength, and market analysts will be eager to understand how the Fed plans to navigate the economic challenges posed by Trump’s protectionist policies.

Technical Analysis

From a technical analysis standpoint, EUR/USD remains firmly entrenched in a bearish trend. The pair recently broke below the 1.0760 level, achieving the anticipated target at 1.0700. This downward movement reinforces the prevailing bearish sentiment, particularly as political and economic uncertainties continue to cast a shadow over the Eurozone’s economic growth prospects. The immediate focus is on whether the pair can maintain its position below 1.0700, with the next target being 1.0600.

Should EUR/USD manage to break above 1.0760 and sustain trading above this level, there could be a potential for a recovery. A break above this resistance could lead the pair to test higher levels, with 1.0865 emerging as a potential target. However, given the current economic and political landscape, the overall trend remains tilted toward further losses for the Euro.

For today, the expected trading range for EUR/USD is between 1.0650 on the downside and 1.0900 on the upside. Given the mounting pressure on the Euro and the strength of the US Dollar, the bearish trend is likely to continue in the short term.

TRADE RECOMMENDATION

SELL EURUSD

ENTRY PRICE: 1.0760

STOP LOSS: 1.0840

TAKE PROFIT: 1.0600

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Warren Takunda

Commodity

Summary:

Gold prices fell sharply to their lowest level in nearly three weeks, driven by a powerful surge in the US Dollar amid political uncertainty and rising bond yields

SELL XAUUSD

Close Time

CLOSED

2725.00

Entry Price

2680.00

2760.00

2656.73 -1.96 -0.07%

450.0

Pips

Profit

2680.00

2679.94

Exit Price

2725.00

Entry Price

2760.00

Gold prices (XAU/USD) are currently under intense pressure, having dropped to a nearly three-week low during the early European session on Wednesday. The precious metal has seen a sharp sell-off, diving into the $2,700 range, driven by a confluence of factors – political uncertainty, an overwhelmingly bullish US Dollar (USD), rising US Treasury bond yields, and an escalating risk-on environment. These elements have all come together to deliver a significant blow to gold’s price, leaving investors questioning the viability of the once safe-haven asset in this new market context.

At the heart of gold's latest struggle lies the unexpectedly strong performance of former President Donald Trump in the US presidential race. The initial exit poll results show Trump in the lead, with a 227-189 electoral vote tally in his favor over Vice President Kamala Harris. More importantly, Trump’s grip on key swing states – including Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin – has rekindled the so-called "Trump trade," triggering a sharp rally in the US Dollar. This political development has prompted aggressive selling across the precious metals market as investors reposition themselves amid the shifting political landscape.

Trump’s potential return to the White House has raised fresh concerns regarding inflationary pressures, particularly in the form of potentially new tariffs and increased deficit spending. These fears are evident in the bond market, where the yield on the benchmark 10-year US Treasury note surged by over 15 basis points, climbing nearly 3.5% intraday to 4.44% – the highest it has been since early July. The increase in bond yields makes gold, which offers no yield, less attractive compared to risk-free US government debt, further driving selling pressure on the metal.

In addition to the political dynamics, market sentiment is also shifting in a risk-on direction. The US equity futures have staged a strong rally in response to the election exit polls, with investors seemingly betting on a return to pro-business policies under a Trump presidency. As risk appetite surges, gold, traditionally viewed as a safe-haven asset, has been left vulnerable to further losses. This has contributed to capping any potential recovery in gold prices, with the market largely adopting a risk-on stance as a major theme.

Notably, the collapse in gold prices comes despite geopolitical tensions simmering in the Middle East. Reports that Iran is planning a retaliatory strike against Israel following the attack on its territory on October 26 have not provided the expected haven bid for gold. It seems that, in this environment, investors are more focused on the US political landscape and the economic implications of a potential Trump presidency than they are on traditional safe-haven factors.

Technical Analysis

From a technical perspective, gold prices have been consistently bearish, with the commodity recently breaching the first support target of $2,718.80 and now approaching the next target at $2,696.85. There is some indication of a modest recovery attempt at the moment, but this is seen as more of a correction within the larger bearish trend. The key resistance level to watch for is $2,746.00; as long as prices remain below this threshold, the downward trajectory is expected to continue, with further negative targets on the horizon.

Should gold manage to break above $2,746.00, the outlook would shift, signaling the potential for a more significant recovery. A move above this resistance could propel gold towards $2,789.90, resuming its previous bullish momentum within the broader upward channel that has been in play for some time. However, with current market conditions dominated by USD strength, rising bond yields, and a growing risk-on sentiment, such a scenario appears unlikely in the immediate term.

For today, the expected trading range for XAU/USD is between $2,710.00 on the downside and $2,765.00 on the upside. Given the prevailing trends, the bias remains firmly bearish, with further downside potential in the coming sessions.

TRADE RECOMMENDATION

SELL XAUUSD

ENTRY PRICE: 2725

STOP LOSS: 2760

TAKE PROFIT: 2680

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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CAD/CHF Gains After US Election: Will the Uptrend Continue?

Market psychology

Technical analysis

Trading Recommendations

USD/JPY Strong Growth After US Election: Potential Buying Opportunity?

Market psychology

Technical analysis

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Path with the Least Risk in the 4H Timeframe Is Downward

Fundamentals

Technical Analysis

Trading Recommendations

A Surge in USD Is Expected Following the Winding Up of the U.S. Elections

Fundamentals

Technical Analysis

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Risk Disclosure