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Converging Trendlines Indicate Imminent Market Shift
Summary:
The lingering shadow of weak global oil demand refuses to dissipate, and there is limited support from geopolitical tensions. Oil prices struggle to rise.
TRADING
72.673
Entry Price
69.000
TP
74.500
SL
73.080 +0.285 +0.39%
0.0
Pips
Flat
69.000
TP
Exit Price
72.673
Entry Price
74.500
SL
Fundamentals
Recently, with the U.S. election results settled and tensions in the Middle East significantly reduced, the crude oil market briefly returned to a downtrend. However, a series of escalating conflicts between Russia and Ukraine, coupled with Moscow's lowering of the threshold for the use of nuclear weapons, have heightened tensions again, providing additional support for crude oil prices.
Nevertheless, the crude oil market is still dominated by supply and demand fundamentals. The impact of short-term geopolitical tensions on oil prices is limited. With the resumption of production at Norway's Johan Sverdrup oilfield, concerns about supply disruptions due to geopolitical tensions have been offset. Furthermore, the latest increase in U.S. crude oil inventories by 4.75 million barrels indicates that demand for crude oil remains weak, echoing the recent downward revisions of global oil demand forecasts by major energy agencies and investment banks. Even if OPEC+ postpones production increases again, it is difficult to change the current oversupply situation in the crude oil market. The outlook for oil prices is worrisome.
Technical Analysis
In the daily chart, oil prices continue to hover in the lower region of the year, with lower highs and converging trendlines. A new market turning point is getting closer. Once the key support around 70.7 is effectively broken, oil prices may accelerate their decline, potentially reaching the 2021 low of around 65.0.
Looking at the 1-hour chart, BRENT maintains a volatile pattern, presenting an expanding megaphone shape. After touching the upper edge of the megaphone, oil prices have retraced. Due to the weak short-term rebound, bears may make a comeback.
Traders are advised to focus on shorting BRENT at higher levels and may consider placing short orders around 72.8 once the price stabilizes. Targets can be at around 69.0, with the stop-loss placed above 74.0.
Trading Recommendations
Trading Direction: Sell
Entry Price: 72.8
Target Price: 69.0
Stop Loss: 74.5
Support: 70.7/69.0
Resistance: 73.0/74.0
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