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Correction Not Over Yet, More Efforts Needed for An Uptrend
Summary:
Gold has plummeted from its highs, and bears remain strong. A short-term rally was not strong enough to change the bearish trend. The XAUUSD pair will mainly be volatile ahead of the PCE announcement.
CLOSED
2343.56
Entry Price
2325.00
TP
2382.00
SL
2774.73 +15.01 +0.54%
22.8
Pips
Loss
2325.00
TP
2345.84
Exit Price
2343.56
Entry Price
2382.00
SL
Fundamentals
Last week, the market again expected the timing of the Fed's first rate cut to be delayed from September to November, due to the hawkish speeches of Fed officials and better-than-expected US economic data. Gold's rally to record highs came to an abrupt halt and quickly turned downward, falling from a high of 2450 to 2325.
As the U.S. dollar index weakened and tensions in the Middle East rose because Israeli troops exchanged fire with Egyptian soldiers, safe-haven buying for gold increased, which boosted gold prices on Monday. The overall upward trend remained unchanged. However, as traders are keeping a close eye on the PCE data due this week to seek more signals of the Fed's monetary policy path, gold prices are likely to remain volatile in the short term.
Technical Analysis
Judging from the weekly chart, XAUUSD plummeted after hitting a record high last week, showing a bearish engulfing pattern at a high level, with greater short-term bearish pressure.
In the 4h timeframe, XAUUSD rebounded slightly after a rapid sharp decline, but the bulls failed to take chances to establish a sufficient advantage. In addition, with the resistance from the previous trend line, gold needs to at least stand above 2380 before it returns to the uptrend. In the absence of new fundamental catalysts, gold prices are likely to remain volatile between 2355 and 2325.
It is recommended that traders mainly use a range trading strategy in the short term, which is buying low and selling high. Specifically, you can try to take short positions around 2350, with the target at around 2325, and the stop loss above 2380.
Trading Recommendations
Trading Direction: Short
Entry Price: 2350
Target Price: 2325
Stop Loss: 2382
Support: 2325/2300
Resistance: 2355/2380
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