EURAUD Booms Amid Mixed Economy

Forex

Summary:

On 28/02/2025, the EURAUD pair trading around 1.5600 witnessed a strong move thanks to optimistic fundamentals from the European and Australian regions...

BUY EURAUD

Close Time

CLOSED

1.67700

Entry Price

1.70000

1.67300

1.68093 +0.01006 +0.60%

40.0

Pips

Loss

1.67300

1.67299

Exit Price

1.67700

Entry Price

1.70000

Overview

On the morning of February 28, 2025, the EURAUD pair was trading near 1.5600, as economic data from both Europe and Australia showed signs of a slight recovery after a period of prolonged volatility. According to the latest report from Reuters, the Eurozone PMI came in at 52.7, reflecting economic expansion, while Australian employment and consumer data showed positive signs, providing a foundation for the AUD. The balance between the pressure from the ECB's monetary policy - as they kept interest rates steady to support the economic recovery - and the positive factors from the Australian economic data helped to ease concerns about the decline.

At the same time, developments in trade negotiations and comments from experts from FXStreet also show that geopolitical risks are under control, creating a favorable backdrop for forex trading.

Market psychology

Investor sentiment in today's session showed a strong shift from risk aversion to opportunities in quality currency pairs. Trading reports on Reuters showed increased EURAUD buying volumes, as large financial institutions shifted positions from risky assets such as cryptocurrencies to foreign exchange, seeking safety amid positive macroeconomic data.

The VIX fear index fell slightly, confirming market confidence, while comments from FXStreet showed that experts see EURAUD's upside as supported by both fundamental and technical factors.

Technical analysis

On the EURAUD chart, the current price around 1.5600 is fluctuating between the support zone near 1.5550 and the resistance at 1.5650.

Bollinger Bands (20,0,2) show tight volatility, with the lower band decreasing, signaling a strong reaction when price touches the support level.

Furthermore, the IKH system with parameters 9,26,52 is generating a “Golden Cross” signal when the medium-term line crosses above the long-term line, confirming the uptrend. The Stochastic indicator (5,3,3) shows that the oversold zone is maintained in the morning trading session, opening up the possibility of a positive reversal as soon as buying pressure pushes the price above the resistance level of 1.5650.

The consensus among these technical indicators has strengthened the technical view and created a clear buy signal for the EURAUD pair.

Trading Recommendations

Based on the combination of positive macroeconomic data and consistent technical signals, a BUY EURAUD trading strategy is proposed.

Entry: 1.677

TP: 1.7 – corresponds to the resistance level confirmed on the chart.

SL: 1.673, ensures losses are limited in case of unexpected market reversal.

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

You understand and acknowledge that there is a high degree of risk involved in trading. Following any strategies or investment methods may lead to potential losses. The content on the site is provided by our contributors and analysts for information purposes only. You are solely responsible for determining whether any trading assets, securities, strategy, or any other product is suitable for investing based on your own investment objectives and financial situation.

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Adam

Forex

Summary:

The Fed has recently signaled the possibility of continuing to raise interest rates to control inflation, while the BoJ maintains flexible monetary policy to support the Japanese economy....

SELL USDJPY

EXP

EXPIRED

150.200

Entry Price

149.500

150.700

150.074 -0.521 -0.35%

Pips

EXPIRED

149.500

150.595

Exit Price

150.200

Entry Price

150.700

Overview

On February 28, 2025, the USD/JPY pair was trading around 150.25. The market is closely watching the moves of the Fed and the BoJ. The Fed has recently signaled the possibility of continuing to raise interest rates to control inflation, while the BoJ maintains a flexible monetary policy to support the Japanese economy. The difference in monetary policy between the two central banks has created upward pressure on the USD/JPY pair.

Market psychology

The current market sentiment reflects concerns about the global economic outlook and monetary policy. The Fed’s expected rate hike has put pressure on the USD, while the JPY is supported by its role as a safe haven asset amid economic uncertainty.

Technical analysis

USD/JPY Faces Selling Pressure: Will the Downtrend Continue?_1

On the M15 chart, the USD/JPY pair shows important signals:

Bollinger Bands (20,0,2): Price is currently hovering near the upper band of the Bollinger Bands, indicating a short-term uptrend. A break above the upper band could signal a continuation of the uptrend.

Ichimoku Kinko Hyo (9,26,52): Price is above the Ichimoku cloud, along with the Chikou Span line cutting above the price, confirming a strong uptrend.

Stochastic Oscillator (5,3,3): The Stochastic indicator is in the overbought zone, suggesting a possible short-term downside correction before continuing the uptrend.

Trading Recommendations

Based on fundamental and technical analysis, investors can consider the following USD/JPY short strategy:

Entry: Consider selling at 150.00 - 150.20 if price corrects slightly and holds below the 150.50 resistance.

Take Profit (Taking profit price): Short-term taking profit target at 149.50 - 149.00, corresponding to the next support level.

Stop Loss: Place stop loss above 150.70 to limit risk in case price reverses to the upside.

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Warren Takunda

Commodity

Summary:

Gold prices remain on the defensive for the second consecutive day, pressured by a strengthening US Dollar and expectations of a hawkish Federal Reserve.

SELL XAUUSD

EXP

TRADING

2860.00

Entry Price

2806.00

2900.00

2891.80 +33.96 +1.19%

0.0

Pips

Flat

2806.00

Exit Price

2860.00

Entry Price

2900.00

Gold prices (XAU/USD) are struggling to gain traction in the early European session on Friday, trading around the $2,864–2,863 region, just above a two-week low. The persistent strength in the US Dollar (USD), fueled by expectations that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will maintain its restrictive monetary policy amid sticky inflation, continues to weigh on the yellow metal. Despite a prevailing risk-off mood and sliding US Treasury bond yields, gold has failed to attract safe-haven demand, extending its downside for the second consecutive day.

The US Dollar has staged a notable rebound from its recent two-month low, driven by renewed speculation that the Fed will delay interest rate cuts longer than previously anticipated. Data released on Thursday confirmed that inflation remains a key concern, reinforcing the case for the central bank to maintain a higher-for-longer interest rate stance. According to the latest estimates, the US economy expanded at an annualized pace of 2.3% in the fourth quarter of 2024, in line with previous projections. However, the GDP Price Index—a key measure of inflation—was revised higher to 2.4% from the initial estimate of 2.2%, underscoring the persistence of inflationary pressures.

Fed officials have consistently cautioned against premature rate cuts, with several policymakers reinforcing the need for vigilance. Kansas City Fed President Jeff Schmid highlighted the rise in consumer inflation expectations, emphasizing the need for the central bank to remain focused on containing price pressures. Meanwhile, Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack suggested that interest rates are likely to remain on hold for the foreseeable future, as inflation data presents growing challenges for policymakers. Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker echoed similar concerns, acknowledging that progress toward the Fed's 2% inflation target has slowed significantly. This shift in rate expectations has provided strong support for the USD, making non-yielding assets like gold less attractive. As a result, XAU/USD has been unable to recover despite broader market uncertainty.

The near-term trajectory for gold is likely to be influenced by the upcoming release of the US Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index, the Fed's preferred gauge for measuring inflation. Any upside surprise in the PCE data would further cement expectations of a prolonged high-rate environment, potentially pushing the USD higher while exerting additional downward pressure on gold prices. Conversely, any signs of cooling inflation could revive hopes of Fed rate cuts, providing some relief for XAU/USD. Beyond monetary policy, concerns over potential trade disruptions are also adding to market unease. Former US President Donald Trump has reiterated his stance on implementing tariffs, with plans to impose levies on Canada and Mexico set to take effect on March 4. Additionally, Trump has threatened to announce a 25% tariff on European Union imports, raising fears that trade tensions could fuel further inflationary pressures. If these policies materialize, they could complicate the Fed’s efforts to bring inflation under control, reinforcing the case for maintaining restrictive monetary conditions.

Technical Analysis

From a technical standpoint, gold's recent price action has confirmed a bearish bias. The metal has failed to hold above key resistance levels, indicating potential for further downside movement. The immediate resistance zone stands around $2,889, where sellers are likely to remain active. Any price increases toward this level could present fresh selling opportunities. On the downside, $2,840 serves as the key support level for the day. A decisive break below this threshold could accelerate declines, opening the door for further losses toward $2,806. A break above $2,870 would be needed to challenge the broader bearish outlook. If gold fails to sustain gains above this level, selling pressure is expected to persist, reinforcing the downward momentum.

TRADE RECOMMENDATION

SELL GOLD

ENTRY PRICE: 2860

STOP LOSS: 2900

TAKE PROFIT: 2806

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Warren Takunda

Economic

Summary:

USD/CHF trades near 0.8995 in early European hours as market sentiment reacts to US President Donald Trump’s confirmation of impending tariffs on Mexico and Canada.

BUY USDCHF

Close Time

CLOSED

0.90050

Entry Price

0.90600

0.89700

0.89695 -0.00575 -0.64%

35.0

Pips

Loss

0.89700

0.89698

Exit Price

0.90050

Entry Price

0.90600

The US Dollar strengthened against the Swiss Franc early Friday, pushing USD/CHF toward 0.8995 as traders reacted to President Donald Trump’s reaffirmation of trade tariffs. Trump announced that starting March 4, goods imported from Mexico and Canada would face a 25% tariff due to ongoing concerns about drug inflows into the United States. Additionally, Chinese imports will be hit with an extra 10% duty, escalating trade tensions with major US partners.

This unexpected development has reignited concerns over global trade, increasing the appeal of safe-haven assets such as the Swiss Franc. Historically, tariffs have triggered volatility in currency markets, and Friday’s developments suggest that traders will closely watch how global supply chains and economic forecasts are impacted in the coming weeks.

Alongside trade developments, the Federal Reserve’s stance on monetary policy remains a crucial factor for USD/CHF movement. Market expectations of Fed rate cuts have fluctuated, with traders currently pricing in around 58 basis points (bps) of easing by the end of 2024. However, Federal Reserve officials have provided mixed signals, complicating the outlook.

Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack emphasized that interest rates are on hold for now, reinforcing a cautious approach by policymakers. Similarly, Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker supported maintaining current rates, citing the need for more economic clarity before adjusting policy. This lack of consensus within the Fed suggests that upcoming inflation data, particularly the US Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index for January, could play a pivotal role in shaping expectations.

While the Greenback has found some strength, the Swiss Franc continues to be buoyed by its status as a traditional safe-haven currency. Uncertainty in global markets, particularly concerning geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, has led to increased demand for CHF. Should risk sentiment deteriorate further, USD/CHF could struggle to maintain its current gains.

Another crucial factor weighing on the Swiss Franc is the country’s inflation data. Switzerland’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) for January eased to 0.4%, the lowest level in nearly four years. This has strengthened expectations that the Swiss National Bank (SNB) may implement rate cuts in its March meeting, a move that could put additional downward pressure on CHF.

Technical Analysis

From a technical perspective, USD/CHF has been testing the 0.9014 resistance level, with recent price action indicating a potential shift back to a bullish trend. However, negative signals from key technical indicators suggest that the pair may struggle to sustain an upside breakout.

If buyers manage to push the pair above 0.9014, further resistance can be expected near 0.9060, a level that has historically served as a turning point for price action. On the downside, a failure to maintain bullish momentum could see USD/CHF retrace toward the 0.8970 level, with additional support at 0.8925.

TRADE RECOMMENDATION

BUY USDCHF

ENTRY PRICE: 0.90050

STOP LOSS: 0.8970

TAKE PROFIT: 0.9060

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Warren Takunda

Commodity

Summary:

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil is set to close February with its first monthly decline since November, as concerns over global fuel demand and an economic slowdown in the U.S. eclipse supply-side risks.

SELL WTI

EXP

TRADING

69.500

Entry Price

67.000

71.000

69.233 -0.545 -0.78%

0.0

Pips

Flat

67.000

Exit Price

69.500

Entry Price

71.000

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil prices edged lower on Friday, trading near $69.90 per barrel during Asian market hours, after recording gains in the previous session. Crude remains on track for its first monthly decline since November, weighed down by mounting concerns over global fuel demand, recession fears, and the broader impact of fresh U.S. tariffs on key trading partners.

While geopolitical risks have periodically lifted oil prices, demand-side worries have taken precedence. The slowdown in the U.S. economy, evidenced by weaker GDP growth and rising jobless claims, has amplified concerns over fuel consumption, reinforcing downward pressure on prices.

President Donald Trump’s unexpected tariff announcement has sent ripples through the energy market. His administration plans to impose a 10% tariff on Canadian energy imports starting March 4, as part of a broader package that includes a 25% levy on Mexican and Canadian goods. This move could have far-reaching consequences for North American energy trade, potentially disrupting long-standing supply chains and leading to higher domestic fuel prices.

Canada remains the largest supplier of crude oil to the U.S., with approximately 3.8 million barrels per day exported south of the border. A 10% tariff would add significant costs to refiners dependent on Canadian crude, likely resulting in higher consumer fuel prices if the costs are passed on. Additionally, this policy could incentivize Canadian producers to seek alternative markets, further complicating North America’s energy landscape.

On Thursday, crude oil prices briefly surged more than 2% after Trump revoked a license allowing U.S. oil giant Chevron to continue operating in Venezuela. The decision halts Chevron’s exports of roughly 240,000 barrels per day from the sanctioned OPEC nation, impacting about a quarter of Venezuela’s total oil output.

This move is seen as part of a broader strategy to tighten pressure on Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro, but it also introduces fresh uncertainty into global oil markets. Analysts speculate that Venezuela’s state-run oil firm, PDVSA, may attempt to redirect its crude exports to Asian markets, particularly China and India, diminishing U.S. leverage over the country’s oil revenues.

Despite the initial price spike, traders quickly shifted focus back to demand fundamentals, limiting the rally’s sustainability.

The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies (OPEC+) faces a critical decision on whether to proceed with planned output increases in April or maintain current production levels. The uncertainty surrounding U.S. sanctions on Venezuela, Iran, and Russia has made the cartel’s next move less predictable.

OPEC+ typically finalizes supply decisions a month in advance, meaning it has until March 5-7 to confirm its strategy for April. However, internal divisions and external geopolitical risks have complicated consensus-building within the group. A more cautious approach may be adopted, given the fragile demand outlook and looming macroeconomic headwinds.

Technical Analysis

From a technical perspective, WTI crude tested key resistance at $70.30 but failed to sustain a daily close above this level. The 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA50) aligns with this resistance, adding further strength to it.

Meanwhile, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is losing positive momentum, signaling a potential short-term pullback. WTI has rebounded from its long-term rising support but now faces a horizontal resistance level at $70.80. Given these technical indicators, a local bearish correction is expected, with traders eyeing a potential downside move toward $68.00 before the next major support zone comes into play.

Traders may consider short positions near $70.30, with a target of $67.00 and a stop-loss above $71.00, as bearish momentum appears to be gaining traction.

TRADE RECOMMENDATION

SELL WTI

ENTRY PRICE: 69.50

STOP LOSS: 71.00

TAKE PROFIT: 67.00

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Manuel

Forex

Economic

Summary:

This could be the early formation of a double bottom pattern, which may signal a potential bullish reversal.

BUY ETH-USDT

EXP

TRADING

2226.42

Entry Price

2800.00

1840.00

2283.08 -4.32 -0.19%

0.0

Pips

Flat

1840.00

Exit Price

2226.42

Entry Price

2800.00

Ethereum’s price has stabilized near $2,300 after a steep 20% drop over three days, bottoming out at $2,255. This sharp decline rattled market sentiment, as ETH had not traded at these levels since October 2024. However, signs of resilience are emerging in the derivatives market, hinting at a potential recovery.

ETH futures with a 30-day expiration are now trading at a 7% premium over the spot market, slightly up from 6% two days ago. A premium between 5% and 10% is generally considered neutral, as traders expect higher returns for longer settlement periods. This subtle shift suggests diminishing bearish pressure below $2,600, which could bolster confidence among bullish investors.

In regulatory news, Ethereum-based development firm Consensys announced that the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has decided to close its ongoing case against the company, which primarily focused on MetaMask, one of the most widely used cryptocurrency wallets.

Consensys CEO Joe Lubin confirmed the development in a lengthy statement on X, explaining that the resolution came after an agreement between the company and the SEC. While the formal dismissal is still pending, this decision effectively ends a legal battle that had posed a threat to innovation within the crypto sector.

The case dates back to June 2023, when the SEC sued Consensys, alleging that MetaMask’s staking services violated securities laws. The lawsuit, filed in the U.S. District Court for the Eastern District of New York, was part of former SEC Chair Gary Gensler’s broader efforts to assert regulatory authority over cryptocurrencies.

One of the key turning points in the dispute came when Consensys counter-sued the SEC, forcing the regulator to abandon its investigation into Ethereum. This legal victory helped solidify ETH’s status as a non-security, paving the way for the approval of Ethereum-based exchange-traded funds (ETFs) in the U.S. last year.

"Every legal and policy victory is hard-fought, but each one is a crucial step toward a better financial system and a more open internet," Lubin wrote, expressing optimism about Consensys’ prospects for the coming year. With regulatory conditions shifting, he believes the company is well-positioned to drive further innovation in the crypto space.

In another major regulatory development, the SEC has notified Gemini, the crypto exchange founded by the Winklevoss twins, that it will not take legal action against the company at this time.

Cameron Winklevoss, co-founder of Gemini, shared the news via X on February 26, posting the notification from the SEC along with his reflections on the case. This marks a significant milestone in Gemini’s regulatory battle, offering some relief to the platform amid ongoing scrutiny of the crypto industry. A Double Bottom Could Be Forming, Buyers May Step In Soon_1

A Double Bottom Could Be Forming, Buyers May Step In Soon_1

Technical Analysis

Ethereum has once again dropped to $2,240 amid a wave of liquidations, bringing it closer to the local low of $2,095 reached on February 2 during previous market turbulence. This could be the early formation of a double bottom pattern, which may signal a potential bullish reversal. If buyers successfully defend the $2,000 support level, a renewed upward push could follow.

The RSI on the daily chart has dropped to 27, indicating strong oversold conditions. Historically, such levels have often preceded recoveries, making this a key moment for traders watching for a potential bounce.

The 100-day and 200-day moving averages are currently positioned at $2,266 and $2,935, respectively, leaving room for a recovery toward these levels. The $2,844 area remains the most significant local resistance zone, making it a potential target in the medium term.

However, traders should also keep an eye on the $2,092 level, which ETH has tested twice in recent downturns, each time finding strong buying support. A retest of this zone is possible, and if it holds, it could provide the foundation for a stronger bullish move.

Trading Recommendations

Trading direction: Buy

Entry price: 2230

Target price: 2800

Stop loss: 1840

Validity: Mar 12, 2025 15:00:00

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Manuel

Cryptocurrency

Summary:

This decline brings BTC closer to the 200-day moving average, a key technical zone that investors and traders will closely monitor.

BUY BTC-USDT

EXP

TRADING

84474.0

Entry Price

100000.0

72000.0

90125.0 +94.0 +0.10%

0.0

Pips

Flat

72000.0

Exit Price

84474.0

Entry Price

100000.0

Spot Bitcoin ETFs in the U.S. recorded their seventh consecutive session of outflows on Wednesday, with investors pulling out $754 million. This brings the total withdrawals over this period to nearly $3 billion, according to data from SoSoValue.

The group experienced an unprecedented session on Tuesday when investors withdrew over $1 billion—the largest single-day outflow to date. While outflows slowed on Wednesday, the ongoing trend highlights a broader risk-off sentiment in the market, prompting investors to exit Bitcoin-backed funds.

BlackRock’s IBIT led the outflows, registering its largest daily net capital withdrawal of $418 million. Fidelity’s spot ETF, FBTC, followed with a $145.6 million outflow.

The trend was overwhelmingly negative for Bitcoin ETFs, with only three funds managing to remain neutral, while none recorded net inflows. The remaining seven products—including those managed by Grayscale, Ark, Bitwise, Franklin Templeton, and Invesco—saw outflows ranging from $9 million to $60 million by the end of the session.

Meanwhile, Texas is moving closer to establishing a strategic Bitcoin reserve after state lawmakers granted a key initial approval for the bill supporting this initiative.

The Texas Strategic Bitcoin Reserve Act (SB 21) was approved by the Senate’s Business and Commerce Committee and now heads to the full chamber for further voting, Bitcoin Magazine reported on X this Thursday. The bill secured unanimous support, with all nine committee members voting in favor.

Texas Representative Giovanni Capriglione introduced the legislation in December, aiming to position the state at the forefront of what appears to be a new era for digital assets in the U.S.

The proposal aligns with the vision of incoming President Donald Trump, who emphasized during his 2024 campaign the need for the U.S. to assume a leadership role in emerging sectors like cryptocurrencies. His agenda includes the potential creation of a federally managed Bitcoin strategic reserve.

This approval in Texas follows a similar legislative move in Oklahoma earlier this week, marking significant steps toward recognizing Bitcoin as a sovereign strategic reserve asset in the U.S.

On Tuesday, members of Oklahoma’s State House Committee voted in favor of a bill to establish a state Bitcoin reserve. The proposal, HB 1203, passed with a decisive 12-2 vote, moving it to a full legislative vote in the local chamber. Bitcoin Faces Heavy ETF Outflows but Finds Technical Support_1

Bitcoin Faces Heavy ETF Outflows but Finds Technical Support_1

Technical Analysis

Bitcoin has retraced from its all-time high of $110,000, reached on January 20. Since then, it has dropped to a local low of $83,300—levels not seen since November 13, shortly after the U.S. elections. This decline brings BTC closer to the 200-day moving average, a key technical zone that investors and traders will closely monitor. Many could view the current dip as a potential buying opportunity.

The RSI currently sits at 22, signaling clear oversold conditions on the daily chart. Such low RSI levels have not been seen since August 2023, when Bitcoin was trading around $24,200—a significantly lower price compared to today’s levels. This notable divergence could set the stage for renewed buying interest, potentially fueling a recovery in the near term.

Trading Recommendations

Trading direction: Buy

Entry price: 84400

Target price: 100000

Stop loss: 73000

Validity: Mar 12, 2025 15:00:00

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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EURAUD Booms Amid Mixed Economy

Overview

Market psychology

Technical analysis

Trading Recommendations

USD/JPY Faces Selling Pressure: Will the Downtrend Continue?

Overview

Market psychology

Technical analysis

Trading Recommendations

Gold Price Under Pressure Amid Stronger USD, Market Eyes US PCE Data for Direction

USD/CHF Strengthens Amid Trump Tariffs, But Safe-Haven Appeal Caps Gains

WTI Crude Faces First Monthly Decline Since November as Demand Woes Overshadow Supply Risks

A Double Bottom Could Be Forming, Buyers May Step In Soon

Technical Analysis

Bitcoin Faces Heavy ETF Outflows but Finds Technical Support

Technical Analysis

Risk Disclosure