EUR/GBP Extends Losses Amid Weaker BoE Rate Cut Expectations

Forex

Economic

Summary:

EUR/GBP continues to decline amid shifting expectations for Bank of England rate cuts and concerns over Eurozone growth.

SELL EURGBP

Close Time

CLOSED

0.83180

Entry Price

0.82000

0.83600

0.83046 +0.00312 +0.38%

11.7

Pips

Profit

0.82000

0.83063

Exit Price

0.83180

Entry Price

0.83600

The EUR/GBP currency pair continues its downward trajectory, extending its losses for the fourth consecutive session and trading at approximately 0.8310 during the Asian hours on Friday. The Pound Sterling (GBP) has benefited from shifting market expectations, with traders scaling back their bets on a potential interest rate cut by the Bank of England (BoE) in 2024. Meanwhile, the Euro (EUR) faces pressure as concerns over economic growth in the Eurozone persist, adding to the volatility in the pair.

The primary catalyst for the Pound's recent outperformance has been data released last week indicating a pick-up in underlying price growth in the UK during October. This has prompted a reassessment of the likelihood of additional rate cuts from the BoE, which had previously been expected due to the nation's persistent inflationary pressures. The recent inflation data, which showed the Consumer Price Index (CPI) stabilizing at around 3% year-over-year instead of easing towards the BoE's 2% target, has led traders to reconsider their outlook for UK monetary policy.

BoE Deputy Governor Clare Lombardelli, in a speech at King’s Business School on Monday, emphasized that the central bank requires clearer evidence of easing inflation before considering further rate cuts. Lombardelli expressed concerns about the persistence of inflation, with wage growth holding steady between 3.5% and 4%, while CPI remains significantly above the target. The BoE’s cautious stance signals that the likelihood of a rate cut this year is diminishing, which has given the GBP a much-needed boost against its European counterpart.

Lombardelli's remarks echoed a broader sense of caution within the BoE, underscoring the risks of inflation remaining entrenched at higher levels. Her comments are particularly relevant as UK economic data continues to be under close scrutiny. Despite the reduced likelihood of a rate cut, economic indicators such as the labor market and inflation data will remain central to the BoE’s decision-making process, and market participants will be watching closely for any signals that may suggest a change in policy.

Looking ahead, UK economic data releases are expected to remain relatively light in the coming week, with the BoE's Financial Stability Report scheduled for release on Friday. However, the impact of this report is anticipated to be limited, with little expectation of it significantly moving the market in the near term. The UK’s economic trajectory will remain at the mercy of inflation and employment data, as well as the global macroeconomic environment.

On the other side of the channel, the Eurozone's economic situation is becoming increasingly worrying. European Central Bank (ECB) policymakers have expressed growing concern over slowing economic growth within the region, which has led to heightened expectations of a potential rate cut in December. However, uncertainty lingers over the potential size of this cut, with market participants divided on whether the ECB will adopt a more aggressive approach to support the struggling economy or choose a more measured response.

The upcoming release of the Eurozone's Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) on Friday will be closely scrutinized, as it could provide important clues on the ECB’s future policy stance. The market is expecting core HICP inflation to edge up slightly to 2.8% year-over-year in November, from 2.7% in October. While this may seem like a modest increase, it could complicate matters for ECB officials who have been emphasizing the possibility of further rate cuts, despite ongoing inflationary pressures.

The central challenge for the ECB is balancing its efforts to support the economy with the need to bring inflation down to its target of 2%. The recent uptick in inflation expectations could further delay any decision to cut rates, as inflationary pressures continue to weigh heavily on the region’s recovery prospects. The risk of stagflation, where high inflation persists alongside stagnant economic growth, is becoming a growing concern for both the ECB and the broader Eurozone.

Technical Analysis

The EUR/GBP pair has been trading within a bearish channel, with a strong resistance level at 0.8360 that has limited upside potential. The pair has formed several negative waves in recent sessions and is currently hovering near the 0.8315 mark. The major technical indicators are aligning to suggest a continuation of the bearish momentum, reinforcing the likelihood of further downside pressure in the near term.

If the bearish trend persists, EUR/GBP could experience additional losses, with the next support levels seen at 0.8285 and 0.8250. A break below 0.8250 would further confirm the downtrend and could open the door for even deeper declines.

The expected trading range for today is between 0.8250 and 0.8330, with a bearish outlook for the near term.

TRADE RECEMMENDATION

SELL EURGBP

ENTRY PRICE: 0.83180

STOP LOSS: 0.8360

TAKE PROFIT: 0.8200

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Warren Takunda

Economic

Summary:

The British Pound surges to a two-week high as the US Dollar weakens on light trading. Investors bet on slower BoE easing amid persistent inflation pressures.

BUY GBPUSD

Close Time

CLOSED

1.27001

Entry Price

1.30000

1.24900

1.25192 -0.00042 -0.03%

43.4

Pips

Profit

1.24900

1.27435

Exit Price

1.27001

Entry Price

1.30000

The British Pound Sterling (GBP) climbed to a two-week high against the US Dollar (USD) on Friday, nearing the 1.2750 mark as a softening Greenback and investor sentiment buoyed the currency. Trading volumes were subdued as U.S. markets remained closed for the Thanksgiving holiday, contributing to a thin liquidity environment that magnified the move.

The GBP/USD pair’s advance follows a week-long decline in the US Dollar, which is poised to end the week down by nearly 1.5%. The Dollar's weakness, reflected in the US Dollar Index (DXY) falling to a fresh two-week low of 105.60, comes as investors weigh the prospect of policy divergence between the Federal Reserve (Fed) and the Bank of England (BoE).

The US Dollar's decline began earlier in the week after President-elect Donald Trump’s nomination of hedge fund manager Scott Bessent as Treasury Secretary. Bessent’s reputation as a pragmatic leader calmed markets, dampening the so-called “Trump trades” that had previously buoyed the Dollar. In a Financial Times interview, Bessent emphasized gradual tariff implementation and fiscal discipline, pledging to cap the budget deficit at 3% of GDP—a move seen as stabilizing rather than disruptive.

However, the broader market’s focus remains squarely on the Fed’s next moves. According to the CME FedWatch tool, the probability of a 25-basis-point rate cut in December stands at 66%, with traders anticipating a total of 75 basis points of easing by the end of 2025. While a dovish Fed outlook weighs on the Dollar, the BoE's potential for more restrained easing is offering support to the Pound.

The Pound’s gains are rooted in expectations that the Bank of England will adopt a more measured approach to cutting rates, particularly given the UK's entrenched inflationary pressures. October's inflation report revealed that core CPI rose to 3.3%, while services inflation—closely monitored by the BoE—accelerated to 5%. These figures underscore persistent price pressures in the services sector, which could compel the BoE to maintain tighter monetary policy for longer.

In a speech earlier this week, BoE Deputy Governor Clare Lombardelli cautioned that inflation may persist above target, with wage growth stabilizing at 3.5%-4% and headline CPI potentially anchoring around 3%, rather than the desired 2%. This reinforces the view that the BoE’s rate cuts will be more gradual compared to the Fed, supporting the Pound’s strength.

Technical Analysis

Technically, the GBP/USD pair exhibits a bullish bias, with immediate resistance seen at 1.2730. A decisive break above this level could open the door to further gains, targeting 1.2800 and eventually 1.3000. However, failure to sustain momentum at these levels may trigger a downward correction, potentially resuming the broader bearish trend within the existing channel.

The expected trading range for the day is between the 1.2650 support and 1.2795 resistance. For now, the trend forecast remains bullish, with risks tilted towards continued gains if macroeconomic conditions align.

TRADE RECOMMENDATION

BUY GBPUSD

ENTRY PRICE: 1.2700

STOP LOSS: 1.2490

TAKE PROFIT: 1.3000

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Winkelmann

Commodity

Summary:

Changing geopolitical tensions have led to a seesaw between bulls and bears in gold prices. Traders are advised to avoid chasing the market and await clearer signals.

SELL XAUUSD

Close Time

CLOSED

2675.00

Entry Price

2630.00

2690.00

2626.44 +9.73 +0.37%

150.0

Pips

Loss

2630.00

2690.00

Exit Price

2675.00

Entry Price

2690.00

Fundamentals

Entering November, financial markets have become increasingly volatile, particularly after Trump's victory in the U.S. election. The "Trump trade" dominated the market for a time. It is widely believed that Trump may continue to push for strict trade protection measures such as increased tariffs, which will lead to rising inflation and potentially slow down the Fed's rate cuts, or even rate hikes. This further boosted the U.S. dollar, yet gold still reached a historical record high near the 2800 mark. However, as the dust settled on the U.S. election and Trump's new cabinet nominations were gradually announced, political uncertainty decreased. Coupled with eased tensions in the Middle East, the safe-haven demand for gold diminished, leading to some profit-taking by bulls. Gold prices subsequently fell sharply, with fundamental support almost entirely eroding.

However, the long-dormant Russia-Ukraine conflict suddenly escalated. The exchange of long-range missiles between the two countries and Russia's lowering of conditions for the use of nuclear weapons have reignited geopolitical tensions, increasing safe-haven sentiment and attracting some gold bulls back, which gradually provides some support for gold prices. The Middle East and Russia-Ukraine situations remain highly uncertain and have become key factors driving recent gold price fluctuations. Gold price trends are highly unstable, with bullish and bearish prospects frequently changing, adding considerable difficulty to trading operations. Therefore, traders need to pay more attention to risk and timing.

Technical Analysis

Monthly Bull Run Coming to an End, More Volatility Expected Ahead_1

In the monthly chart, as November enters its final trading day, coinciding with the U.S. Thanksgiving holiday, trading is relatively light. Barring any surprises, XAUUSD will end its monthly uptrend, and the market may enter a long consolidation phase.

Monthly Bull Run Coming to an End, More Volatility Expected Ahead_2

In the 4-hour timeframe, gold bulls and bears have recently taken turns dominating the market. There has been a wide range of volatile seesawing, with several V-shaped reversals. Therefore, traders should be cautioned against chasing trends. Currently, gold prices are in a phase that resembles a descending wedge consolidation. Although the price has broken above 2660 briefly, it should not be seen as a bullish reversal. Further observation is needed for upward breakouts. If the 2680 level is not breached, gold prices may turn downward again.

Traders are advised to apply the strategy of buying low and selling high. We can consider shorting when prices stabilize near 2680. The target is set around 2630, with the stop loss placed above 2680.

Trading Recommendations

Trading Direction: Sell

Entry Price: 2675

Target Price: 2630

Stop Loss: 2690

Support: 2650/2630

Resistance: 2700/2680

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Adam

Forex

Summary:

The Canadian Dollar (CAD) is supported by a recovery in oil prices and a positive outlook for the Canadian economy, while the Swiss Franc (CHF) is under pressure from reduced demand for safe-haven assets. The uptrend in CAD/CHF could continue if technical indicators confirm buy signals...

BUY CADCHF

Close Time

CLOSED

0.63040

Entry Price

0.63100

0.62930

0.62518 -0.00059 -0.09%

11.0

Pips

Loss

0.62930

0.62913

Exit Price

0.63040

Entry Price

0.63100

On November 28, 2024, the CAD/CHF pair was trading around 0.63030, with an intraday high of 0.63031 and a low of 0.62987. The CAD found upside momentum thanks to the recovery in oil prices, one of Canada's main exports. Increased oil demand from China and OPEC+ production cut commitments have helped stabilize oil prices, creating conditions for the CAD to rise.

In contrast, the CHF is under downward pressure as safe-haven flows decline due to improved global risk sentiment. The Swiss National Bank (SNB) has maintained a cautious monetary policy, but the lack of strong support for the CHF has made it difficult for it to compete with the CAD in the current environment.

Market psychology

Investor sentiment on CAD/CHF is currently tilted to the positive side. According to data from Forex Sentiment, about 58% of investors are holding long positions on the pair, reflecting the belief that the uptrend will continue in the short term.

The Fear and Greed Index shows market sentiment is at “Greed,” with investors shifting to riskier assets like stocks and high-yield bonds. This is further strengthening the CAD as international capital continues to flow into Canada.

In addition, trading volumes in the forex market have also increased significantly in the past hours, especially in long positions on CAD/CHF, indicating strong expectations for the pair's recovery.

Technical analysis

On the M15 chart of CAD/CHF, some important technical signals from Bollinger Bands and Stochastic provide a clear view of the current trend:

The current price is hovering near the middle line of the Bollinger Bands at 0.63030, signaling that the market is in a consolidation phase after the previous decline.

The current Bollinger Bands are quite narrow, indicating low volatility and a breakout from the current price range is very likely if trading volume increases in the coming hours.

The middle band of the Bollinger Bands acts as important support if the price starts to correct lower again. If the price breaks above the upper band at around 0.63100 – 0.63150, the uptrend will be further reinforced.

The Stochastic indicator is currently hovering around 31.91 – near the oversold zone (20). This suggests a possible short-term technical recovery before the uptrend continues. If the Stochastic indicator crosses above 50 in the coming hours, this will further reinforce the buy signal.

The 0.63100 – 0.63150 zone is an important resistance level that the price needs to overcome to confirm a stronger uptrend. The nearest support zone is located at 0.62950 – 0.62970. If the price breaks below this zone, the short-term downtrend may resume.

Trading Recommendations

Overall, CAD/CHF is showing signs of recovery, supported by the strength of CAD supported by positive economic outlook from Canada and the weakness of CHF due to lack of safe-haven capital inflows. Technical indicators also suggest that the uptrend is likely to continue if the price remains above important support levels and breaks through the nearest resistance zone in the near term.Based on technical analysis and current market situation:

Entry: Consider entering a BUY order around the current price of 0.63030 if price holds above the important support zone around 0.62950 – 0.62970.

Take Profit: Set a target to take profit at the nearest resistance zone around 0.63100 or deeper at 0.63150 if the bullish momentum continues.

Stop Loss: Place stop loss below the important support level at 0.62930 to protect the position.

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Adam

Forex

Summary:

The Euro (EUR) is facing weakness due to weak economic data from the Eurozone, while the Australian Dollar (AUD) is supported by positive factors from the commodity market. The downtrend could continue if technical indicators confirm sell signals...

SELL EURAUD

Close Time

CLOSED

1.62324

Entry Price

1.62100

1.62550

1.67036 +0.00570 +0.34%

22.6

Pips

Loss

1.62100

1.62651

Exit Price

1.62324

Entry Price

1.62550

On November 28, 2024, the EUR/AUD pair was trading around 1.62224, with an intraday high of 1.62295 and a low of 1.62195. The euro continued to be under pressure due to weak economic data from the Eurozone, including the services and manufacturing PMI indexes falling below the 50 threshold – a sign of economic contraction. This increased expectations that the European Central Bank (ECB) will maintain its dovish monetary policy in the near term.

In contrast, the Australian dollar was supported by a recovery in commodity prices, especially iron ore – Australia’s main export. Increased demand from China helped boost prices and allowed the AUD to appreciate against the euro.

Market psychology

Investor sentiment on EUR/AUD is currently tilted to the negative side. According to data from Forex Sentiment, more than 60% of investors are holding short positions on the pair, reflecting the belief that the downtrend will continue in the short term.

The Fear and Greed Index suggests that market sentiment is neutral, but the weakness in the Eurozone and the relative strength of the AUD have fueled bearish sentiment towards the Euro. In addition, institutional investors are also shifting away from riskier assets like the Euro and towards safer or potentially higher-yielding assets like the AUD.

Technical analysis

On the EUR/AUD M5 chart, some important technical signals from Bollinger Bands and Stochastic provide a clear view of the current trend:

The current price is hovering near the middle band of the Bollinger Bands at 1.62224, signaling that the market may have entered an oversold state in the short term. The expanding Bollinger Bands indicate increased price volatility recently, with the middle band acting as important resistance if the price attempts to recover.

If the price fails to break above this mid-band in the coming hours, the bearish trend will be further reinforced and the next target will be the deeper support zone around 1.62100.

The Stochastic indicator is currently hovering around 83.21 – near the overbought zone (80). This suggests a small correction is likely before the downtrend continues.

The 1.62300 – 1.62400 zone is the key resistance that the price needs to overcome to confirm any recovery. Besides, the nearest support zone is located at 1.62100 – 1.62050. If the price breaks below this zone on high volume, the next target will be the deeper support zone around 1.61900.

Trading Recommendations

In summary, EUR/AUD is under strong downward pressure due to the weakness of the Euro on weak economic data from the Eurozone and the relative strength of the AUD on the recovery of commodity prices and the positive outlook from the Australian market. Technical indicators also suggest that the downtrend is likely to continue if the price fails to break above important resistance levels in the near term.

Based on technical analysis and current market situation:

Entry: Consider entering a SELL order around the current price of 1.62224 if price fails to break above the resistance at 1.62300 – 1.62400.

Take Profit: Set profit target at nearest support zone around 1.62100 or deeper at 1.61900 if the downtrend continues.

Stop Loss: Place stop loss above the key resistance level at around 1.62450 to protect the position.

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Warren Takunda

Economic

Summary:

USD/CAD edges lower as optimism around U.S.-Canada trade negotiations supports the Canadian Dollar

SELL USDCAD

Close Time

CLOSED

1.40000

Entry Price

1.38500

1.41500

1.43992 +0.00518 +0.36%

12.2

Pips

Profit

1.38500

1.39878

Exit Price

1.40000

Entry Price

1.41500

The USD/CAD pair slipped below the critical 1.4000 level in European trading on Thursday, weighed down by a strengthening Canadian Dollar (CAD) as traders positioned for potential progress in U.S.-Canada trade negotiations. This dip came despite a modest recovery in the U.S. Dollar (USD), which saw limited action due to the Thanksgiving holiday in the U.S.

Market sentiment surrounding the Canadian Dollar improved after comments from U.S. President-elect Donald Trump, who threatened to impose a 25% tariff on imports from Canada and Mexico. While such protectionist rhetoric often rattles markets, analysts view this as a tactical move aimed at renegotiating the existing free trade agreements between the three countries.

“Targeting both countries suggests the threat was likely a strategic opening move in renegotiating the existing free trade agreement between the three nations,” said analysts at AscendantFX.

Trade negotiations will be pivotal for Canada, given its heavy reliance on energy exports to the U.S. Any significant trade restrictions could dent foreign inflows into the Canadian economy, potentially weighing on the CAD in the long run. However, for now, optimism around a favorable deal has bolstered the currency.

Investors are closely watching Canada’s upcoming third-quarter GDP report, due Friday. Economists forecast a 1% annualized growth rate, a marked slowdown from the 2.1% expansion seen in the previous quarter. A softer print could temper the CAD’s recent strength, especially if trade tensions escalate.

The Bank of Canada (BoC) has maintained a cautious stance, noting external risks, including U.S. trade policy, as potential headwinds. A weaker-than-expected GDP figure may add to speculation that the BoC will delay further tightening, adding pressure on the CAD.

Despite the Loonie’s gains, the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the greenback against a basket of major currencies, edged up to 106.40. The move came amid thin trading volumes due to Thanksgiving. Markets remain focused on the Federal Reserve’s next policy meeting in December, where expectations for a 25 basis point rate cut are rising.

The CME FedWatch tool indicates a 70% probability of a rate cut, with markets pricing in a reduction to 4.25%-4.50%. While the Fed has hinted at maintaining a data-dependent approach, any dovish tilt could further weigh on the USD, providing additional support for USD/CAD bears.

Technical Analysis

USD/CAD has broken below its rising channel, signaling a shift in market sentiment from bullish to bearish. The pair is now testing the critical 1.4000 psychological level, which also coincides with the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement of the recent uptrend originating from 1.3420. A decisive move below this threshold could confirm a deeper correction, setting the stage for further downside movement toward 1.3850. This lower support level holds significant technical importance, as it marks a previous consolidation zone and aligns with deeper Fibonacci retracement levels, making it a potential target for bearish traders.

If buyers manage to defend the 1.4000 level, any recovery will likely face initial resistance around 1.4045. A break above this point would negate the bearish outlook and signal a potential return to the broader bullish trend. Should the pair climb beyond this resistance, further gains could extend towards the next hurdle at 1.4080. However, until such a breakout occurs, the prevailing momentum remains tilted to the downside, with sellers maintaining control of the market.

The bearish trend will likely persist unless a decisive move above 1.4045 shifts momentum back in favor of bulls.

TRADE RECOMMENDATION

SELL USDCAD

ENTRY PRICE: 1.400

STOP LOSS: 1.4150

TAKE PROFIT: 1.3850

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Warren Takunda

Economic

Summary:

The euro eased from weekly highs on Thursday as investors took profits ahead of key inflation data from Spain and Germany.

BUY EURUSD

Close Time

CLOSED

1.05373

Entry Price

1.07420

1.04500

1.03975 +0.00065 +0.06%

44.9

Pips

Profit

1.04500

1.05822

Exit Price

1.05373

Entry Price

1.07420

The euro slipped during European trading on Thursday, retreating from its recent highs against the U.S. dollar as traders capitalized on gains. This pullback came ahead of key inflation reports from Spain and Germany, crucial indicators that could significantly influence the European Central Bank’s (ECB) policy decisions in the coming weeks.

After rallying sharply on Wednesday, the EUR/USD pair declined by 0.2%, trading around $1.0547. Earlier in the session, the pair had touched an intraday peak of $1.0569, before succumbing to selling pressure. This decline marked a reversal from Wednesday's impressive 0.75% gain, the largest single-day increase since early August, which pushed the pair to a weekly high of $1.0587.

This week's rally in the euro has been driven in part by comments from Isabel Schnabel, a key member of the ECB’s Executive Board. In an interview with Bloomberg, Schnabel emphasized that any potential interest rate cuts should proceed gradually, allowing the central bank to assess its monetary policy stance carefully. Her remarks underscored a cautious approach, with the ECB signaling that it does not intend to rush into easing monetary policy despite recent signs of slowing inflation.

Schnabel's comments had an immediate impact on market expectations. The probability of a 25-basis-point rate cut at the ECB’s December meeting dropped sharply, from 90% earlier in the week to around 65%. This shift reflects a more hawkish interpretation of the ECB’s policy trajectory, lending support to the euro.

Attention now turns to inflation data from Spain and Germany, which is due later today. These reports will provide important insights into whether the recent deceleration in inflation is broad-based or merely a temporary reprieve. The stakes are particularly high given that eurozone-wide inflation figures are set to be released on Friday, a day that could decisively shape market sentiment and the ECB’s policy outlook for December.

The importance of these inflation readings cannot be overstated. While the ECB has hinted at a willingness to begin easing monetary policy if inflation shows sustained signs of moderation, a resurgence in price pressures could force the central bank to maintain a more hawkish stance. This delicate balancing act between fostering economic growth and keeping inflation under control will be central to the ECB’s decisions in the coming months. Euro Retreats from Weekly Highs Amid Profit-Taking, Inflation Data in Focus_1

Euro Retreats from Weekly Highs Amid Profit-Taking, Inflation Data in Focus_1

From a technical perspective, the EUR/USD pair remains in a bullish corrective phase. On Wednesday, the pair managed to break through the key resistance level at $1.0563, a move that was confirmed by the daily candlestick closing above this threshold. This development bolsters the case for further gains in the near term, with the next significant target set at $1.0742.

However, this bullish outlook is not without risks. Should the pair fail to sustain its position above $1.0563, it could face renewed selling pressure, potentially pulling back toward the critical support level at $1.0475. The trading range for the day is expected to oscillate between $1.0480 on the downside and $1.0630 on the upside, though U.S. Thanksgiving holidays may lead to subdued market activity and lower liquidity.

TRADE RECOMMENDATION

BUY EURUSD

ENTRY PRICE: 1.05370

STOP LOSS: 1.0450

TAKE PROFIT: 1.0742

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Monthly Bull Run Coming to an End, More Volatility Expected Ahead

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Risk Disclosure