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EURUSD Plunges Unabated，On Course to Test the 1.0 Support Level
Summary:
U.S. Non-Farm Employment Data for November Exceeds Expectations, but Unemployment Rate Rises. Market Expectations for a 25 Basis Point Rate Cut by the Fed in December Exceed 90%. In the Face of Trump's Tariff Threats, the European Central Bank May Adopt More Aggressive Rate Cut Measures.
CLOSED
1.05667
Entry Price
1.00700
TP
1.06500
SL
1.04249 +0.00643 +0.62%
186.6
Pips
Profit
1.00700
TP
1.03801
Exit Price
1.05667
Entry Price
1.06500
SL
Fundamentals
Last Friday, the fresh U.S. non-farm payrolls data for November was released. The data indicated that the U.S. non-farm payroll employment increased by 227,000 in November, surpassing the expected 220,000, while the previous value was revised up from 12,000 to 36,000. The unemployment rate for November stood at 4.2%, higher than the anticipated 4.1%, and unchanged from the previous month's 4.1%.
The rebound in non-farm employment suggests an overall positive trend in the U.S. job market. However, the rise in the unemployment rate reflects some weakness in household employment. Coupled with the weakening core retail data in October, the market expects the Federal Reserve to cut rates by 25 bps in December with a probability exceeding 90%.
Following the release of the non-farm data, the U.S. Dollar Index initially fell and then rose, maintaining an upward trend for the day. The market showed signs that the rate cut expectations have been digested, and the market sentiment may be more inclined towards an increase.
Furthermore, as Trump's inauguration approaches, his "America First" policy continues to put pressure on European assets. We believe that in response to the export pressure brought by Trump's tariff policies, the European Central Bank may adopt more aggressive rate-cut measures, which will continue to increase the downward pressure on the Euro.
Technical Analysis
On the weekly chart, EURUSD remains below the downtrend line. The medium-term trend still maintains a bearish outlook. Additionally, the asset broke through the key support level of 1.0500 in mid-November. With lower lows, the room for further decline has opened up.
On the daily chart, after effectively breaking through the 1.0500 support level, EURUSD began a technical rebound. After rebounding to the resistance level of 1.0620, signs of weakening appeared for EURUSD. Ultimately, the asset closed with a long upper shadow line, indicating that market sentiment is gradually returning to the bears. The asset may continue its previous downtrend. The first target to watch is the psychological level of 1.0000.
Traders are advised to focus on selling on rallies.
Trading Recommendations
Trading Direction: Sell
Entry Price: 1.0570
Target Price: 1.0070
Stop Loss: 1.0650
Valid Until: November 21, 2024, 15:00:00
Support: 1.0471/1.0334/1.0000
Resistance: 1.0629/1.0665/1.0783
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