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Exercise Caution Against Buying at the Uptrend while Approaching the Stage High
Summary:
Gold has continued to make new highs over the last week with the spot price approaching the threshold of US$2,600. Silver is enjoying a new momentum boost, but silver's upward momentum will remain in gold's shadow.
CLOSED
31.500
Entry Price
28.800
TP
32.480
SL
29.786 -0.102 -0.34%
98.0
Pips
Loss
28.800
TP
32.481
Exit Price
31.500
Entry Price
32.480
SL
Fundamentals
Last week, gold prices reached a historic high with an increase of 3.3%. This surge in gold prices also propelled silver prices significantly higher, with a remarkable gain of 10%, surpassing US$31.00 per ounce.
As a non-yielding commodity asset, silver becomes more attractive to investors in a low-interest-rate environment, as the opportunity cost of holding silver decreases. Consequently, compared to other assets, silver may offer better returns for investors.
Despite the substantial fluctuations in silver prices last week, its overall price trajectory remains relatively stable when compared to gold. The gold-silver ratio successfully maintained support above 83 points, which is well above the low of 72.67 points recorded in May.
The latest trading price for December gold futures stands at US$2,607 per ounce, reflecting a decrease of 0.13% for the day. Meanwhile, December silver futures are trading at US$31.06 per ounce, showing a intraday decline of 0.53%.
In a report released last week, we forecast that silver prices will rise to US$31.50, and we do not anticipate that silver prices will align with the bullish expectations for gold. We expect that silver still has some upside potential, although the path with minimal risk appears to be downward.
Technical Analysis
Technically, silver prices surged past the psychological threshold of US$30.00 last Friday, concurrently breaching a short-term descending trendline, which is viewed as a new catalyst for continued upward momentum. Furthermore, the oscillators in the 1D timeframe have gained positive traction, bolstering the prospects for additional appreciation.
Subsequently, the breakout above the threshold of US$31.00 confirmed a constructive outlook for bulls, with expectations that prices could ascend towards the next significant resistance zone between US$31.45 and US$31.56. Continued buying interest may prompt bulls to refocus on a new uptrend, targeting the threshold of US$32.00.
However, technical formations suggest that bullish momentum may stall around the US$31.50 range, potentially retracing to the mid-level of the previous rally near US$29.80, with a deeper pullback poised to revisit the starting point of US$28.80. This pattern aligns with harmonic structures and the principles of Elliott Wave Theory.
Trading Recommendations
Trading Direction: Sell
Entry Price: 31.50
Target Price: 28.80
Stop Loss: 32.48
Deadline: October 2, 2024 23:55:00
Support: 30.59, 29.83, 28.87
Resistance: 31.45, 31.73, 32.31
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