During Thursday's (November 2nd) Asian session, WTI crude oil oscillated narrowly, and it is currently trading at 80.6 dollars/bbl. Yesterday, the Federal Reserve suspended interest rate hikes as expected, and the dollar weakened. Meanwhile, Powell said that the Fed did not consider a rate cut. He emphasized that a rate cut was not discussed at all, and the purpose of the rate hike resolution was a suspension. Thus, the December rate hike will be traded. The crude oil inventories yesterday fluctuated little, and the oil price ascended and descended. The appreciation in oil prices was due to the Houthis joining the Israeli-Palestinian war, once pushing the oil price to its highest level at 83. Then, it plunged quickly, because the U.S. data was lower than expected, which further increased the investor's concern about the economy. Yesterday, we emphasized that going long at 80 will show a better profit and loss ratio and the space above can be extended to 82 and 83. Therefore, aggressive investors should catch more profits. But for us, this is not enough because WTI failed to reach the expected 80. Back to the fundamentals, after yesterday's decline, the bearish momentum has been completely released, boosting the possibility of today's rebound.  Inventory: As of the week of October 27th, the EIA crude oil stocks were 773,000 barrels compared to an expected 1.261 million barrels, and the previous number was 1.372 million barrels. The crude oil stocks in Cushing, Oklahoma were 272,000 barrels compared to a previous number of 213,000 barrels. Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) stocks were unchanged at 351.3 million barrels. About Gasoline, the stocks were 65,000 barrels compared to an expectation of -803,000 barrels, with a previous number of 156,000 barrels. Refined oil inventories were -792,000 barrels, the expected number was -1.54 million barrels, while the previous number was -1.686 million barrels. U.S. total EIA motor gasoline production implied demand data for the week to October 27 9,531,100 bpd, compared with 9,695,900 bpd previously.

Geopolitical News: Houthi spokesman Yahya Sarea said in a statement on the Houthi's Almasirah channel that the Houthis used a "large number" of ballistic missiles and drones to strike Israel on the same day. This is also since the current Israeli-Palestinian war, the first armed organization formally claimed the attack on Israel, while the other Middle East neighboring countries are still talking without action.

Today's focus: U.S. Initial Jobless Claims, Factory Goods Orders in September, and most importantly, the Nonfarm Payrolls to be released tomorrow. 

Yesterday, WTI crude oil declined for the third consecutive day, arriving at 83.1 and then plummeting to 80.1, closing the daily chart with a long-upper-shadow. After touching 80.1, WTI crude oil rebounded slightly in the Asian session today, and the bottom became stronger after yesterday's decline. Also, the bearish momentum faded tremendously. Now, WTI crude oil is under a trend to form a double bottom pattern, and a rebound is ready. Thus, investors should consider the situation at 83, as WTI failed twice to cross above it during the week. If WTI climbs above this area, it will further reach 85.5. However, the market is now trading a weakening supply/demand, and it will not turn significantly until an opportunity, or a surge in risk-aversion sentiment, emerges. Thus, investors should not expect a huge rebound, and stop being greedy. Instead, try to protect the profits, as WTI will be difficult to cross over 83.5.  

Today's trading recommendations: Buy at lows. If WTI retraced back to 80.6, try to go long with small positions and set the stop-loss at 80.1. To take profits, the first target will be at 83.5, where investors can reduce the position size and move the stop-loss to breakeven, and put the second target at 85.5. If WTI plummets to 79.5 again, investors should enter and go long, and stop loss by 0.5 dollars. The target to take profits is the same as the first target above.  

Trading direction: Long

Entry price: 80.500

Target price: 83.500

Stop loss: 80.000

Support: 80.100/78.300

Resistance: 81.500/83.500

During Thursday's (November 2nd) Asian session, spot gold oscillated narrowly, and it is now trading at 1985. The major news yesterday was the Fed stopping interest rate hikes as expected. Then, the ADP employment was worse than expected. Powell repeated the same topic during the speech, that the interest rate decision will be determined by future economic data, weighing on the dollars shortly. After reaching the bottom, gold rebounded in the hourly timeframe during the Asian session, and as the dollars weakened in the European and the U.S. sessions, gold once reached 1993.8. We also mentioned yesterday, that the retracement had not ended. It would not be smooth as there would be rebounds. Thus, investors should not chase the market. As a result, gold did rebound as high as we expected. We also suggested that investors go short at the 1993 level, and we made a profit of 21 dollars by taking profits at 1972. We have made big profits this week! Moreover, those who followed our instructions this week should have earned 100 dollars! Nevertheless, any plans will be useless without implementation. Therefore, we should make simple plans that are easy to be implemented and set certain target levels. If it is not the right trading time, we should just enjoy our lives without paying too much attention to the trade.   

Data: U.S. October ISM Manufacturing PMI fell to 46.7, the largest single-month decline in more than a year, hitting a three-month low. It was expected to be flat and the previous reading was 49. Among them, the new orders hit a new low since May. The U.S. Markit Manufacturing PMI was finalized at 50 in October, while the expected figure was 50, the preliminary figure was 50, and the final figure for September was 49.8. Besides, ADP employment increased by only 113,000, and wages grew at the lowest rate in two years. September JOLTS job openings were reported at 9.55 million, which exceeded market expectations.

News: The Fed decided to slow down the pace of interest rate hikes in November, and the target range for the federal funds rate will be maintained between 5.25% and 5.50%. Powell said he "currently does not have the confidence" to assess whether the Fed's interest rate policy has been sufficient to reduce inflation, and the Fed will pay attention to more economic data to measure the sustainability of the recent declining inflation. If the economic data supports interest rate hikes, the Fed will consider raising interest rates. However, interest rate cuts are not currently on the agenda.

Geopolitical News: According to Israeli media citing the Israeli Ministry of Health, the Israeli side has more than 1,400 people died during this round of conflict. The death toll on both the Palestinian and Israeli sides has exceeded 10,035. Meanwhile, the Bolivian government announced its decision to sever diplomatic relations with Israel.

Today's focus: The U.S. Initial Jobless Claims, the Monthly Factory Orders in September, and the Nonfarm Payrolls data to be announced tomorrow. 

Yesterday, gold rebounded driven by a weaker dollar. It once reached 1993.8, followed by a quick plunge to its lowest level at 1969.8, so that we made a profit of 21 dollars. Regarding the pattern yesterday, gold closed with a doji star that has a long-upper-lower shadow, indicating a complex oscillating pattern. At the beginning of a downtrend formation, there are always small rebounds and big pullbacks. Gold has depreciated for 3 days this week, which may imply the start of a downtrend. We should not expect too much for the rest two days, and just keep waiting for opportunities. Trading should be simple but investors are complicated. Now, the oscillation center of gold decreases, and the MACD movement tends to be flat at highs, forming a death cross. Therefore, we remain bearish on gold until the overbought conditions ease and the retracement is sufficient. Today, the oscillating range will be from 1965 to 1993, and aggressive investors could do short-term trade and sell at highs in this range.  

Trading Recommendations: Sell at highs. If gold ascends to 1993, investors could go short with small positions, and set the stop-loss at 1998. To take profits, the first target will be at 1980, where they can reduce the position size and move the stop-loss to breakeven, and the second target should be at 1965. Meanwhile, if gold appreciates to 2008 again, investors could go short with small positions for the second time, and set the stop-loss between 2010 and 2012, with the same target as the first trade.  

Trading direction: Short

Entry price: 1993

Target price: 1965

Stop loss: 1998

Support: 1970.000/1953.000

Resistance: 1983.000/1997.000

WTI crude oil futures made a notable recovery, surpassing the $82.5 per barrel mark on Wednesday, bouncing back from a recent two-month low. This resurgence followed the release of data from the Energy Information Administration (EIA), which revealed a smaller-than-expected increase in crude oil inventories.

The EIA report indicated that U.S. crude oil inventories rose by 0.774 million barrels during the previous week. This figure fell short of market expectations, which had projected a 1.261 million barrel increase. The data offered some relief to oil markets, suggesting that supply dynamics might not be as bearish as previously feared.

Investor attention was split between these inventory figures and the eagerly anticipated Federal Reserve monetary policy meeting. The market awaited insights into the future trajectory of interest rates, a factor that can significantly influence oil prices.

While the ongoing conflict in the Middle East remained a cause for concern, the primary focus shifted to the Federal Reserve's decision. The central bank was widely expected to maintain interest rates at their current levels. However, investors were acutely aware that the meeting held clues about a potential rate hike scheduled for December.

A rate hike in December could have implications for both economic growth and oil demand. Tightening monetary policy can slow down economic activity, potentially leading to reduced energy consumption. This dual influence of interest rates on the broader economy and the energy sector made the Fed's stance a critical factor for oil market participants.

The short-term technical analysis for USOIL (U.S. Crude Oil) suggested a trading range between $83.11 and $81.58. If the price were to rise and stabilize above $82.500, this scenario would indicate a bullish trend, with the potential to target the $85 level, considered a robust resistance line.

Conversely, a decline in price below $81.58 and the establishment of stability below that level could signal a bearish trend, potentially targeting $80.78.

In conclusion, WTI crude oil prices managed to stage a recovery from their recent lows, largely in response to favorable EIA inventory data. As investors eagerly awaited the Federal Reserve's monetary policy meeting outcome, the oil market remained cautious about the ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. The Fed's decision and the potential for a December rate hike kept oil market participants on edge, with both supply and demand dynamics in play. The technical analysis for USOIL provided key levels to watch, reflecting the market's ongoing uncertainty.

ENTRY PRICE : 82.50

STOP LOSS : 80.00

TAKE PROFIT : 85.00

The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) has had a rocky start to November as labor market statistics for the country brought disappointing news, leaving their mark on the currency's performance and raising questions about the Reserve Bank of New Zealand's (RBNZ) future monetary policy decisions.

Here are the key points that have contributed to the NZD's recent struggles:

Weakened Labour Market: New Zealand's labour market data for the third quarter unveiled negative employment changes. Unemployment increased by 8,000, resulting in a 0.2% decrease in employment compared to the second quarter. This performance fell significantly short of market expectations for 0.4% employment growth. The unemployment rate also saw a rise from 3.6% to 3.9%, and the participation rate declined to 72% from 72.50% in the second quarter.

Easing Wage Pressures: Wage pressures in New Zealand's labour market have eased as conditions deteriorated. The labour cost index dropped to 4.1% year-on-year in the third quarter, down from 4.3%. The market had expected a figure of 4.2%. This suggests that labour cost growth in the private sector might have peaked.

Impact on RBNZ:The disappointing labour market data have reduced the likelihood of further interest rate hikes by the RBNZ. Analysts had previously contemplated the possibility of a rate hike in either December or February, but the weaker data have cast doubt on the prospects of such a move.

NZD Performance:Unsurprisingly, the NZD has weakened against all G10 currency pairs due to the labour market data. The Pound to New Zealand Dollar exchange rate stands at 2.0879, the Euro to New Zealand Dollar rate is at 1.8165, and the New Zealand Dollar to U.S. Dollar rate is at 0.5820.

ANZ Expectations: Despite the recent data, ANZ continues to anticipate a 25 basis point rate hike by the RBNZ. However, their confidence in this move has diminished, with February now seen as the likely timing for the hike.

Market Reaction: The market reacted swiftly to the data, with the New Zealand Dollar facing selling pressure. The 2-year swap rate fell by around 6 basis points, and the NZD/USD exchange rate declined by approximately 40 basis points.

Furthermore, the NZD/USD currency pair has displayed a bearish trend for a significant portion of 2023, influenced by multiple technical observations and recent market dynamics. Recent lows and bearish momentum suggest a potential continuation of this trend, with the pair reaching a fresh low for 2023 at 0.5815. The critical support level at 0.5800 has emerged as a key zone to watch, with a sustained move below potentially indicating further downside. The yearly trend has been downward, moving from a high of 0.6534 to 0.5887, and despite a minor correction phase, the overall trend remains bearish. A short swing trade setup is proposed, with a short entry at 0.58, a stop loss at 0.605, and a take profit target at 0.57, reflecting the prevailing bearish sentiment.

ENTRY PRICE : 0.5800

STOP LOSS : 0.6050

TAKE PROFIT : 0.5700

The ADP private sector employment growth in the U.S. in October was lower than expected, with an increase of 113,000 jobs instead of the expected 135,000. The breakdown by industry shows that the number of commodity production jobs increased slightly by 6,000, while the number of service jobs increased by 107,000. When considering the scale of enterprises, small enterprises contributed 19,000 jobs, medium-sized enterprises contributed 78,000 jobs, and large enterprises added 18,000 jobs.

There is a remarkable trend in the field of wages. The salary of employees staying in their current posts increased by 5.7% year-on-year, the lowest growth rate since October 2021. On the other hand, the salary of employees who quit jobs increased by 8.4%, which was the least significant. These are the figures since July 2021.

Nela Richardson, the chief economist of ADP, said: "We didn't see a specific industry leading the way in recruitment in October. In addition, the sharp increase in wages we observed in the post-pandemic stage seems to be weakening. "

She further added: "The October data provides a comprehensive view of the employment sector. Despite the slowdown in the job market, it is still strong enough to maintain strong consumer spending. "

According to market observation, the employment of private enterprises in the U.S. in October was much lower than expected, but this probably underestimated the health of the labor market, because the labor market is still tense.

The ADP report released on Wednesday showed that the number of private enterprise employees increased by 113,000 in October, instead of the expected 135,000. The lower-than-expected growth may reflect the strike of United Automobile Workers (UAW) against the three major automakers, which may weaken employment in manufacturing. The government reported last week that at least 30,000 UAW members took part in the strike during the investigation in October.

Despite the fact that the Fed has raised rates by 525 basis points since March 2022, the labor market remains strong.

According to CME "FedWatch", the probability that the Fed will keep the interest rate unchanged in the range of 5.25%-5.50% at this meeting is 97.6%, and the probability of raising interest rates by 25 basis points to the range of 5.50%-5.75% is 0%. The probability of keeping interest rates unchanged by December is 69.1%, the probability of raising interest rates by 25 basis points is 29.3%, and the probability of raising interest rates by 50 basis points is 3.6%.

As major economic events will be announced one after another, the AUD, relative to risk-sensitive assets, has not fallen with the strong rise of the USD, but has risen together with the USD.

The AUDUSD continues to trade in a range on Wednesday, remaining neutral to positive during the session; a limited recovery would put the AUDUSD in a corrective mode in the 1D timeframe, but would not trigger a reversal scenario, as the outlook remains bearish; meanwhile, the 0.6400 resistance level is intact. If the current positive momentum continues to be strong, we would categorize this performance as a return to the demand zone (0.6400); new weakness may return when the price completes the test of the demand zone; a break below the previous low of 0.6270 would be the primary target for bears.

On the downside, a break below 0.6270 would resume the decline initiated from 0.7156, targeting the 0.6195 range, close to the 0.6169 medium-term support.

From a larger perspective, the downward trend from 0.8006 (the high in 2021) may continue. A decisive break above 0.6169 would target the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement at 0.6021 of the range from 0.8006 ~ 0.6169 ~ 0.7156. It is recommended to go short at the highs with a return of the demand area of 0.6400.

Trading direction: Short

Entry price: 0.6400

Target price: 0.6195

Stop loss: 0.6501

Deadline: 2023-11-15 23:55:00

Support: 0.6285, 0.6272, 0.6200

Resistance: 0.6365, 0.6398, 0.6452

After a nearly 4% drop on Monday, WTI crude oil fell below US$80.50 (the previous low) on Tuesday, and fell 2.70% in the day, erasing all the gains after the attack on Israel on October 7.

Since the outbreak of the Palestinian-Israeli conflict on October 7, the geopolitical situation has become the focus of attention in the crude oil market in October. Judging from the price trend, the international crude oil price has not rebounded sharply due to the relatively limited influence of Palestine and Israel on the supply and demand of the crude oil market and the fact that the conflict between Palestine and Israel has not expanded with the efforts of all parties.

So far, the impact of the conflict between Palestine and Israel on crude oil prices is more focused on market sentiment, which has led to oil price fluctuations, but at present, the actual impact of the conflict on the supply and demand side of crude oil is still relatively small, which also leads to the rebound of crude oil prices still lacking support.

As the geopolitical situation in the Middle East continues to develop, the geographical premium of the oil market rose. Since the outbreak of the Palestinian-Israeli conflict, WTI crude oil once exceeded US$90.00 in intraday trading in late October, reversing the decline of oil prices in early October and then falling back. Considering that neither Palestine nor Israel is a major oil producer, market pricing has stabilized without further escalation.

However, under the influence of the broader geopolitical situation, small-scale conflicts between the U.S., Iran, Lebanon, and Syria are inevitable, and the geopolitical premium concerns brought about by them will not be eliminated soon. Oil prices may fall back after rebounding.

WTI crude oil is moving strongly higher in a narrow range early Wednesday, relying on the 100-day SMA, after falling nearly 6% over the past two days. Meanwhile, new bears are facing greater downside resistance in the area. The area has so far failed to break significantly, as the key factor influencing the trend was the triggering of stop-loss orders (US$80.50) and bear profit-taking.

On the other hand, fundamentals clashed with each other, with record monthly U.S. crude oil production adding to the pressure, coupled with an unexpected contraction in China's factory activity in October, while the market continued to closely monitor developments in the Middle East.

Investors also turn their attention to some key U.S. economic data today, including the October Manufacturing PMI, labor sector reports (October ADP Private Sector Employment and September JOLTS Job Openings), and the EIA Crude Oil Inventories report, which precedes the key event today - the Fed rate hike decision.

The new bears are now expected to lift the weekly close further above US$83.00 in an attempt to correct the strong bearish pattern in the 1D timeframe even further, creating some long traps in the week ahead and boosting the prospects for a longer-term decline.

Moreover, a clear break of the market above the integer threshold of US$80.50 will push the bears to attack the psychological support at US$80.00 and the negative signal of the 200-day SMA of US$78.10.

Finally, bearish sentiment is expected to remain in the near term, and it is clearly not wise to go short at this point in time, as investors will take advantage of the opportunity to build long positions at the end of the bearish trend. It is recommended to go short at the highs in the coming week, as it is bullish in the short term (as shown in the chart).

Trading direction: Long

Entry price: 81.50

Target price: 87.00

Stop loss: 80.00

Deadline: 2023-11-15 23:55:00

Support: 81.01, 80.73, 80.00, 78.10

Resistance: 82.30, 82.78, 83.98, 84.31