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Focus on the 1.4 Threshold
Summary:
The USDCAD continues to attract buying at the dips, supported by various factors. The Bank of Canada's (BOC) ongoing interest rate cuts have contributed to the weakening of the Canadian dollar.
CLOSED
1.39152
Entry Price
1.40590
TP
1.38000
SL
1.44068 +0.00048 +0.03%
20.0
Pips
Profit
1.38000
SL
1.39352
Exit Price
1.39152
Entry Price
1.40590
TP
Fundamentals
On Wednesday during the European session, the USDCAD approached its highest level since August 5, fluctuating around the 1.3920-1.3925 range, seemingly poised to continue the upward trend observed over the past month. Various factors may continue to exert pressure on the Canadian dollar, coupled with a resurgence of buying interest in the U.S. dollar, affirming the recent positive outlook for the USDCAD.
Meanwhile, the dovish remarks from BOC Governor Tiff Macklem have further depressed Canadian dollar assets.
Earlier, Macklem explained the rationale behind last week's 50 basis point rate cut during a session of the House of Commons Finance Committee, emphasizing that "inflation has now returned to the 2% target." He highlighted that Canada is currently experiencing a "low inflation" period, with the BOC's primary objective being to "maintain a low and stable inflation rate" while successfully "stabilizing the economy."
Macklem noted that interest rate cuts are also aimed at "stimulating a rebound in demand" while the economy remains "weak". Looking ahead, the BOC anticipates that, supported by lower interest rates, the Canadian economy will "gradually" strengthen in 2025 and 2026.
If economic conditions align with the BOC's outlook, Macklem expects to "further reduce the policy interest rate" to sustain demand and keep inflation stable around the target.
However, he clarified that decisions on timing and scale will be data-driven, with BOC will take monetary policy decisions "one at a time".
On the other hand, the U.S. dollar continues to attract some buying at the dips, preventing a slight pullback from the highest levels since July 30, as more investors accept that the Federal Reserve will continue to implement modest rate cuts. This still supports rising U.S. Treasury yields, which in turn bolsters the prospects for further appreciation of the U.S. dollar, indicating that the path of least resistance for the USDCAD is upward.
Technical Analysis
Since the rebound from the support level of 1.3421, the USDCAD has showed a pronounced bullish momentum, with buyers pushing the price close to a three-month high around 1.3946. The USDCAD has appreciated by 4.6% during this rebound, and the medium-term outlook has shifted to positive.
From a momentum perspective, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is moving above the 70 level, while the MACD is losing some momentum above its zero line. Both indicators suggest that the market is overextended and may continue to expand, although a pullback could also occur.
A more significant upward movement could propel the market past the 1.3946 threshold, potentially breaking through the 22-month high of 1.3976. A decisive break above this resistance range would confirm the resumption of a larger upward trend.
On the downside, a drop below the minor support level of 1.3875 would shift the intraday bias and initially lead to consolidation.
Overall, the USDCAD continues to maintain a positive upward trend, with only a drop below the 200-day SMA (located around 1.3680) likely to alter the bias to neutral.
Trading Recommendations
Trading Direction: Buy
Entry Price: 1.3900
Target Price: 1.4059
Stop Loss: 1.3800
Deadline: November 14, 2024 23:55:00
Support: 1.3876, 1.3838, 1.3811
Resistance: 1.3946, 1.3976, 1.4000
Risk Warnings and Disclaimers
You understand and acknowledge that there is a high degree of risk involved in trading. Following any strategies or investment methods may lead to potential losses. The content on the site is provided by our contributors and analysts for information purposes only. You are solely responsible for determining whether any trading assets, securities, strategy, or any other product is suitable for investing based on your own investment objectives and financial situation.
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