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FOMC Remained Hawkish: XAU/USD Dipped over 20 dollars
Summary:
The FOMC held a meeting early this morning and put forward many "hawkish" views on raising the interest rate. Almost all officials voted to raise the interest rate to 25 bps, with a minority saying to increase a further 50 bps, which caused XAUUSD and non-US currencies to plummet.
CLOSED
1832.00
Entry Price
1820.00
TP
1837.00
SL
2622.76 -26.57 -1.00%
50.0
Pips
Loss
1820.00
TP
1837.00
Exit Price
1832.00
Entry Price
1837.00
SL
Fundamentals
Minutes of FOMC February meeting: some officials prefer a 50bps rate hike, some believe that the monetary policy is not tight enough, and it is important that the overall financial environment should match the degree of monetary policy restrictions imposed by FOMC. After the release of the minutes, the market almost fully digested the expectation of a cumulative rate hike of 75bps in June.
The risk of a U.S. recession this year remains "very high", as inflation hits a 40-year high. The statement showed that "continued rate hikes" were still needed, but shifted the focus from the pace of hikes to the "degree", a nod to the fact that policymakers feel they may be approaching a rate that is adequate to ensure steady progress in reducing inflation.
Data since the last meeting have shown that the economy continued to grow and employment was growing rapidly while making less progress back toward the Fed's 2% target.
The meeting showed that policymakers remain concerned about the risks that they may have to take more measures to control inflation.
According to the minutes, "policymakers agreed that over the past year, the FOMC had made significant progress in its restrictive monetary policy and that the economy had continued to grow amid a tight labor market."
Technical Analysis
The U.S. dollar index rebounded, hitting a high of 104.61 during the session, and closed up 0.34% at 104.52. The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield continued to hover high and closed at 3.927%.
The U.S. dollar index weakened slightly during the Asian session, down about 0.19% at 104.33.
In yesterday's meeting, officials agreed to raise interest rates, and the question was how much to raise. The vast majority supported a 25 basis point increase, the remaining few agreed to raise 50 basis points.
XAUUSD dipped almost $20 from $1846 to $1823. Gold prices fell may due to the hawkish attitude of the Fed, and the current rate hike will suppress gold prices.
From technical analysis, the price broke through 1830-1832. The price is trading sideways in the short term and trying to break through again. The main catalyst is yesterday's meeting minutes, which gave gold new momentum. The 1818-1820 area will become support for gold, and the further target will be 1800, which is also the price support within the 1-hour chart.
Trading Recommendations
Trading Direction: Short
Entry Price: 1832
Target Price: 1820
Stop Loss: 1837
Support: 1818-1820
Resistance: 1841-1846
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