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Go Short at the Highs Using the Neckline as a Benchmark
Summary:
Amidst the various ambiguous breakouts, the market is expected to see a pullback as the key neckline is found; it is recommended to go short at the highs using the neckline as a benchmark.
CLOSED
30.579
Entry Price
28.890
TP
33.000
SL
29.524 +0.505 +1.74%
242.1
Pips
Loss
28.890
TP
33.001
Exit Price
30.579
Entry Price
33.000
SL
Fundamentals
The precious metals market continued to retract gains on Tuesday, with investors closely monitoring two inflation reports this week that could solidify the Federal Reserve's policy trajectory for the rest of the year.
Over the past five trading days, gold prices have struggled to achieve further breakthroughs due to various factors, including a strengthening U.S. dollar and soaring U.S. Treasury yields, resulting in sustained downward pressure for consecutive days.
Silver, a sister commodity to gold, did not maintain its upward momentum after testing a 12-year high last week and opened the week below US$32.00.
U.S. Treasury yields rose across the board, with the benchmark 10-year yield surpassing 4.01%, the 2-year yield climbing to 4%, and the 30-year yield increasing to 4.29%. This development is deemed bearish for the metals market, as it raises the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding precious metals.
Despite the recent decline in the U.S. Dollar Index (USDX), it has surged by 2% over the past week. The strengthening of the U.S. dollar simultaneously poses challenges for U.S. dollar-denominated commodities, as it increases the purchasing cost for investors.
In terms of data, inflation will be the predominant factor influencing the market this week. Currently, the market anticipates that the Consumer Price Index for the U.S. in September will slow to 2.3%, with the core inflation rate, which excludes the more volatile energy and food components, expected to remain unchanged at 3.2%. Producer prices are predicted to remain flat, while core producer prices are expected to rise significantly.
These reports may determine whether the Fed will gradually lower interest rates. Following the Fed's substantial 50 basis point rate cut last month, there is a growing expectation that the Fed will adopt a more cautious approach when easing restrictive monetary policies.
Technical Analysis
The spot silver price has maintained a strong position since testing a 12-year high of US$32.71 on September 26, and it broke this level again last Friday, signaling a solid prospect for further gains in the market.
In fact, the XAGUSD slightly breached the left shoulder at US$32.28 on September 27 (as seen in the 4H timeframe), providing early indications for continued upward movement. Additionally, last Friday's resurgence, which reached a peak of US$32.95, confirmed this outlook. However, the recent closing price in the 4H timeframe failed to surpass the previous high (the September 26 peak), casting doubt on the sustainability of the subsequent rise. This also demonstrates that the high of US$32.95 from last Friday may reflect speculative sentiment.
With the U.S. dollar strengthening and U.S. Securities yields continuing to rise, amid various ambiguous breakouts, we anticipate that the XAGUSD will likely experience a retreat in the near term. It is recommended to go short at the highs using the neckline as a benchmark. Trend prediction: Neutral.
Trading Recommendations
Trading Direction: Sell
Entry Price: 31.80
Target Price: 28.89
Stop Loss: 33.00
Deadline: October 23, 2024 23:55:00
Support: 30.88, 30.35, 29.71
Resistance: 31.74, 32.28, 32.95
Risk Warnings and Disclaimers
You understand and acknowledge that there is a high degree of risk involved in trading. Following any strategies or investment methods may lead to potential losses. The content on the site is provided by our contributors and analysts for information purposes only. You are solely responsible for determining whether any trading assets, securities, strategy, or any other product is suitable for investing based on your own investment objectives and financial situation.
USD/CHF is currently trading near the upper band of the Bollinger Bands, indicating that the market is in a bearish correction. The important support zone is at 0.8520, and if the price breaks this level, USD/CHF could continue to decline further. USD/CHF is moving within the Ichimoku cloud, a sign of a tug-of-war between buyers and sellers. However, if the price fails to break the resistance level of 0.8600, the downtrend could continue. The RSI indicator is at 53.31, indicating that the market is not currently in an overbought or oversold state. However, if the RSI continues to decline, it will further reinforce the downtrend of USD/CHF in the coming trading sessions.
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