Gold Holds Steady at $3,020 Amid Tariff Uncertainty, but Downside Risks Grow

Commodity

Summary:

Gold remains stable around $3,020 after Friday’s decline, as investors react to reports that U.S. President Donald Trump may scale back planned tariffs by April 2.

SELL XAUUSD

Close Time

CLOSED

3015.00

Entry Price

2986.00

3035.00

3019.23 -0.61 -0.02%

200.0

Pips

Loss

2986.00

3035.05

Exit Price

3015.00

Entry Price

3035.00

Gold prices have steadied around $3,020 as markets digest fresh developments on U.S. trade policy, with traders weighing the impact of President Donald Trump’s apparent decision to soften his stance on tariffs. Over the weekend, reports emerged that the Trump administration will not implement broad-based duties on imports as initially planned. Instead, officials suggest a more targeted approach, imposing tariffs on select industries and regions rather than applying a blanket increase across the board. The shift has provided some relief to financial markets, which had been bracing for a wave of retaliatory measures from key trading partners.

Despite this development, uncertainty remains high. Trump’s protectionist stance has been a cornerstone of his economic policy, and while easing the scope of tariffs reduces the risk of an all-out trade war, it does not eliminate the broader concerns surrounding supply chain disruptions and global economic growth. Market analysts argue that even with a 25% import tariff, the measure may not be enough to force large-scale reshoring of manufacturing back to the United States. Some economists suggest that for the Trump administration’s goal to materialize, far more aggressive tariffs—ranging from 100% to 200%—along with significant government subsidies, would be required to make it economically unfeasible for companies to maintain overseas production.

While the tariff shift has brought a sigh of relief to equity markets, gold remains at a crossroads. The precious metal has been supported by its safe-haven appeal amid geopolitical uncertainties and Federal Reserve policy shifts. However, with risk appetite improving slightly due to the tempered trade war fears, the upside for gold may now be limited. Additionally, the U.S. dollar has regained some strength, further capping gold’s ability to extend its recent rally.

Technical Analysis

Gold’s recent price action suggests that the metal is struggling to push higher, and in my opinion, a deeper correction is becoming increasingly likely. After a strong rally that took prices to the $3,035 resistance level, gold is now showing signs of exhaustion. The market tested this level multiple times but failed to break through, which signals that buyers might be losing momentum. This could be the first indication that a short-term top is forming.

At the moment, gold is holding steady around $3,020, but the way price action is developing, I wouldn’t be surprised if we see another attempt to break lower. The first key level I’m watching is $3,006. If gold drops below this support, I expect sellers to gain control and push the price toward $2,986, which is another major support area. This level has held strong in previous sessions, but if it fails, we could see an even deeper correction, potentially down to $2,950.

Looking at the chart, there’s also a clear head-and-shoulders pattern forming—a classic bearish signal. The market has already completed the right shoulder, and now we’re in the crucial retest phase. If gold can’t break above $3,035 convincingly, this pattern could play out fully, leading to a sharp decline.

For traders, this presents two potential setups. If gold manages to break above $3,035 and hold that level, then I’d be looking for a move toward $3,060 or even higher. But if the price continues to struggle at this resistance, it makes sense to start looking for short opportunities, targeting the support levels at $3,006 and $2,986.

TRADE RECOMMENDATION

SELL GOLD

ENTRY PRICE: 3015

STOP LOSS: 3035

TAKE PROFIT: 2986

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Warren Takunda

Commodity

Summary:

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil prices climbed higher in early European trading on Monday, continuing last week's positive momentum.

BUY WTI

Close Time

CLOSED

68.902

Entry Price

71.000

67.200

69.101 +0.046 +0.07%

52.5

Pips

Profit

67.200

69.427

Exit Price

68.902

Entry Price

71.000

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil prices started the week on a strong footing, sustaining gains in early European trading on Monday. The U.S. benchmark oil contract is holding firm above $68 per barrel, reflecting continued strength in demand expectations and a broadly positive outlook for the energy market. Brent crude, the international oil benchmark, also advanced, trading at $71.74 after closing at $71.70 on Friday.

The upward momentum in oil prices is being driven by multiple factors, including improving macroeconomic conditions in key consumer economies, geopolitical risks that pose threats to supply, and a technical setup that continues to favor bullish sentiment. Despite lingering concerns about global economic headwinds, investors appear increasingly confident in oil’s ability to hold its recent gains as market fundamentals remain supportive.

Stronger-than-expected U.S. retail sales data and a resilient labor market have reinforced optimism about consumer spending, which in turn supports demand for gasoline and other petroleum products. In China, the latest industrial production figures pointed to steady output growth, easing worries over a sharp downturn in the world’s largest oil-importing nation. These signs of stable demand from the two largest crude consumers have been instrumental in propping up prices.

At the same time, geopolitical risks continue to influence market sentiment. Heightened tensions in the Middle East, particularly surrounding Iran and Western powers, have raised fears of potential supply disruptions. The risk of maritime security threats in key shipping lanes, including the Strait of Hormuz, remains a significant concern for traders. Any escalation in geopolitical instability could lead to further price volatility, reinforcing oil’s appeal as a risk-sensitive commodity.

Monetary policy remains another crucial factor shaping oil price movements. The Federal Reserve’s decision to keep interest rates unchanged has prevented a significant appreciation in the U.S. dollar, which has helped crude oil maintain its strength. However, if the Fed signals a prolonged period of high interest rates in its upcoming meetings, the dollar could strengthen, making oil more expensive for holders of other currencies and potentially capping further gains.

Technical Analysis

From a technical perspective, WTI crude oil has confirmed a breakout above the key resistance level of $68.00, signaling continued bullish momentum. Prices remain supported by the 50-period simple moving average, reinforcing the short-term uptrend.

As long as WTI stays above this threshold, traders will likely continue to favor the upside, with the next target set near $69.50. A move beyond that level could open the door for a test of the psychologically significant $71 mark. Conversely, any pullback below $67.50 could indicate a potential retracement, with stronger support found near $66.80.

TRADE RECOMMENDATION

BUY WTI

ENTRY PRICE: 68.90

STOP LOSS: 67.20

TAKE PROFIT: 71.00

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Adam

Forex

Summary:

On March 24, 2025, GBP/USD traded around 1.2929, down 0.14% on the day after hitting a peak of 1.2975 — its highest since November 2024 — before retreating below the psychological 1.2950 mark. The March Flash PMI showed a strong recovery in UK services activity with the Services PMI rising to 53.2...

SELL GBPUSD

Close Time

CLOSED

1.29200

Entry Price

1.28500

1.29600

1.29394 -0.00035 -0.03%

10.8

Pips

Profit

1.28500

1.29092

Exit Price

1.29200

Entry Price

1.29600

Overview

On March 24, 2025, GBP/USD traded around 1.2929, down 0.14% on the day after hitting a peak of 1.2975 — its highest since November 2024 — before falling back below the psychological 1.2950 mark. March Flash PMIs showed a strong recovery in UK services activity, with the Services PMI rising to 53.2, but the Manufacturing PMI fell to 44.6, marking the fastest decline in manufacturing output in nearly a year and a half amid headwinds from US tariffs.

The Bank of England (BoE) decided to keep interest rates at 4.50% by an 8‑1 majority, emphasizing its cautious stance in the face of persistent inflationary pressures and global uncertainty.

Meanwhile, the USD continues to be supported by US Treasury yields anchored around 4.28% and expectations that the Fed will maintain its hawkish stance despite risks of a US economic slowdown.

Market psychology

Sentiment is currently mixed as investors have pushed their long GBP/USD position ratio to 71%, but this is a contrarian signal that suggests that the longs are taking a bigger risk and the downtrend is likely to continue. The next few days will depend on US PMI data (21:45 GMT) and the speech of BoE Governor Andrew Bailey.

Technical analysis

GBP/USD Weakens Below 1.2950: Will Short-Term Downtrend Continue?_1

Technical analysis on M15 chart shows that GBP/USD is trading below Senkou Span A of Ichimoku Cloud and SMA50 (around 1.2940), confirming that the short-term downtrend is still dominant. Bollinger Bands (20,0,2) are widening with the price heading towards the lower band around 1.2890, reflecting strong selling momentum. Stochastic (5,3,3) has not entered oversold territory but %K has crossed below %D, confirming bearish pressure. Daily Camarilla Pivot identifies resistance at 1.2967 and nearest support at 1.2888, followed by 1.2840

Trading Recommendations

Entry: 1.2920

TP: 1.2850

SL: 1.2960

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Alan

Forex

Summary:

While the rebound in the services PMI provides short-term support for the British pound, the weakness in manufacturing, coupled with the stagflationary risks of a "wage-price" spiral, suggests that the pound may face significant downward pressure.

SELL GBPUSD

EXP

TRADING

1.29316

Entry Price

1.25200

1.30500

1.29394 -0.00035 -0.03%

0.0

Pips

Flat

1.25200

Exit Price

1.29316

Entry Price

1.30500

Fundamentals

Today's release of the UK's March PMI data presents a mixed picture of results.

Specifically, the preliminary March Manufacturing PMI registered at 44.6, marking a sixth consecutive month of contraction and the lowest level since Q4 2023. The output index plunged into contraction territory for the first time since October 2023, while new orders plummeted due to declining exports, particularly to the EU. Concurrently, output price inflation surged to its highest level since April 2023, driven by escalating labor costs, including increases in National Insurance contributions and minimum wage adjustments.

Furthermore, the manufacturing confidence index declined to its lowest point since November 2022, pressured by rising raw material costs that are squeezing profit margins. This situation exacerbates the pressure to reduce inventories, creating a negative feedback loop with weakening demand.

It's noteworthy that while the preliminary March Services PMI reached a seven-month high of 53.2, the growth is concentrated in seasonal consumption sectors such as tourism and entertainment. Corporate surveys indicate that the growth rate of new orders has slowed for three consecutive months. The current expansion in the service sector relies on the residual impact of post-Olympics infrastructure investment. Fiscal tightening (a GBP5 billion cut in welfare) and high mortgage rates (averaging 5.8%) may suppress consumer momentum over the next three months.

Overall, although the rebound in the Services PMI provides short-term support for the British pound, the collapse in manufacturing (a PMI of 44.6, nearing the recession threshold) and the stagflation risk of a "wage-inflation" spiral suggest that the pound may face significant depreciation pressure.

Technical Analysis

Pound Will Face Greater Depreciation Pressure_1

In the 4H timeframe, the GBPUSD has entered a period of consolidation at elevated levels following a recent bullish surge. However, the declining highs and lows suggest waning bullish momentum, increasing the likelihood of a subsequent decline.

Furthermore, the candlestick pattern in the 4H timeframe hints at the potential formation of a head and shoulders top. If the right shoulder materializes, it would significantly increase the probability of a GBPUSD downturn, with an initial downside target testing the 1.2500 support level.

Trading Recommendations

Trading Direction: Sell

Entry Price: 1.2945

Target Price: 1.2520

Stop Loss: 1.3050

Valid Until: April 7, 2025 23:00:00

Support: 1.2887, 1.2500

Resistance: 1.2973, 1.3014

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Adam

Forex

Summary:

On 24/03/2025, USD/CHF traded around 0.8818, up 0.14% on the day as the USD recovered from losses on rising US Treasury yields and expectations that the Fed will maintain its hawkish stance on monetary policy....

BUY USDCHF

Close Time

CLOSED

0.88249

Entry Price

0.88700

0.87900

0.88337 +0.00149 +0.17%

13.2

Pips

Profit

0.87900

0.88381

Exit Price

0.88249

Entry Price

0.88700

Overview

The SNB has just cut its key interest rate from 0.50% to 0.25% in response to inflation of just 0.3% - the lowest in nearly four years and increasing downside risks. The CHF therefore weakened against the USD (USD/CHF rose to 0.8803 immediately after the decision). The Fed maintained a "wait and see" stance but kept interest rates high in the context of US inflation still not reaching 2% and the yield on 10-year US Treasury bonds hovering around 4.28%, supporting the strength of the USD.

At the same time, improving global risk sentiment (White House adjusting tariff policy; easing geopolitical tensions) reduces demand for safe haven franc.

Market psychology

Forex Client Sentiment shows that 81% of traders are long USD/CHF – a contrarian signal that USD/CHF is likely to rise further due to excessive short selling. FastBull Market Sentiment is bullish on average, reinforcing the short-term bullish scenario.

Technical analysis

USD/CHF bounces sharply: Short-term buying opportunity appears_1

The current USD/CHF price (0.8837) is above the short-term SMA50 (~0.8800) and above the Senkou Span A of the Ichimoku Cloud, confirming the short-term uptrend.

Bollinger Bands (20,0,2) are expanding, price is approaching the upper band (0.8840), signaling strong bullish momentum.

Stochastic (5,3,3) has left the oversold zone and %K (34) has just crossed above %D (18), generating the first buy signal. Daily Camarilla pivot gives resistance at 0.8841 (R1) and support at 0.8799 (S1). A successful breakout above 0.8841 will open the way to 0.8870–0.8895 (pivot R2).

Trading Recommendations

Entry: 0.8820–0.8825 when price holds above SMA50 and Tenkan‑sen

Take Profit 1: 0.8870 (resistance pivot R2): 0.8895 (upper BB pivot R3)

Stop Loss: 0.8790 (below S1 pivot support and lower BB)

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Adam

Forex

Summary:

On 24/03/2025, EUR/CAD traded at 1.5521, holding on to the short-term uptrend after bouncing from the 1.5502–1.5503 support zone on the M15 timeframe. The euro continues to be underpinned by expectations that the ECB will keep interest rates unchanged at its April meeting, despite pressure for further cuts as inflation is falling faster than expected....

BUY EURCAD

EXP

EXPIRED

1.55100

Entry Price

1.55800

1.54900

1.53997 -0.00033 -0.02%

Pips

EXPIRED

1.54900

1.54536

Exit Price

1.55100

Entry Price

1.55800

Overview

On March 24, 2025, EUR/CAD opened at 1.5510, bottoming out at 1.5503 before recovering to 1.5521, closing around 1.5533. The ECB is considering cutting interest rates in April as Eurozone inflation slows faster than expected, but remains cautious due to global trade uncertainty and a high euro.

In contrast, the CAD was hit hard by the drop in WTI crude oil prices to $78/barrel, which directly impacted Canada’s oil-export-dependent economy. Canada’s February CPI data showed the index rising 2.6% YoY, higher than the forecast of 1.9%, largely due to the temporary price shock from the end of the “GST holiday”. Meanwhile, Canada’s January GDP is forecast to have increased 0.3% MoM, reinforcing expectations that the BoC will cut interest rates more slowly due to rising recession risks.

Market psychology

According to Forex Client Sentiment, 82% of traders are short EUR/CAD, creating a contrarian signal for the pair to bounce further. While CAD typically rises along with oil, the current oil price correction has weakened CAD despite a relatively stable Canadian economic outlook. EUR/CAD is also benefiting from a global “risk-on” trend as the Eurozone services PMI improves against weak data from Japan and Canada.

Technical analysis

EUR/CAD shows short-term bullish trend amid economic data wave and oil price volatility_1

On the 15-minute chart, EUR/CAD bounced sharply from the lower Bollinger Band at ~1.5502 and is now approaching the middle band (1.5530), indicating signs of consolidation before breaking the resistance at 1.5557. Ichimoku Cloud shows the price is above Senkou Span A and B, Tenkan‑sen (1.5525) has just crossed above Kijun‑sen (1.5515), reinforcing the short-term uptrend. Chikou Span is also above the price line of the previous 26 sessions, confirming the bullish strength.

Stochastic (5,3,3) just generated a buy signal when %K crossed %D from the oversold zone (41.5 13.8), predicting continued recovery.

RSI (14) at 50.3 shows neutral momentum but tilted to the upside.

A break of 1.5557 could see EUR/CAD heading towards the next resistance at 1.5580–1.5630 (61.8% Fib retracement of the downtrend from 1.5857 to 1.5502). Supportive information includes softer-than-expected Canadian GDP data and a dovish ECB. A break below 1.5500 could see the pair test 1.5470–1.5430 (S3 pivot and March low). CAD strength could recover if the Canadian CPI report surprises strongly or oil prices rebound.

Trading Recommendations

Entry: 1.5480–1.5525 when price holds above Tenkan‑sen and lower BB.

Take Profit: at 1.5580 (TP1) and 1.5630 (TP2) respectively.

Stop Loss: 1.5490 (below lower BB and S2 pivot).

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Eva Chen

Cryptocurrency

Summary:

Reports indicate that the White House is narrowing the scope of tariffs set to take effect on April 2, potentially removing a range of industry-specific tariffs. This development set a "positive" tone for the cryptocurrency market during Monday's Asian and European trading sessions, driving major cryptocurrencies higher.

BUY BTC-USDT

EXP

TRADING

87474.3

Entry Price

96200.0

83000.0

87252.2 -515.9 -0.59%

0.0

Pips

Flat

83000.0

Exit Price

87474.3

Entry Price

96200.0