Gold Suffers Major Losses as USD Hits Four-Month High in Wake of Trump’s Election Gains

Commodity

Summary:

Gold prices fell sharply to their lowest level in nearly three weeks, driven by a powerful surge in the US Dollar amid political uncertainty and rising bond yields

SELL XAUUSD

Close Time

CLOSED

2725.00

Entry Price

2680.00

2760.00

2652.91 -5.78 -0.22%

450.0

Pips

Profit

2680.00

2679.94

Exit Price

2725.00

Entry Price

2760.00

Gold prices (XAU/USD) are currently under intense pressure, having dropped to a nearly three-week low during the early European session on Wednesday. The precious metal has seen a sharp sell-off, diving into the $2,700 range, driven by a confluence of factors – political uncertainty, an overwhelmingly bullish US Dollar (USD), rising US Treasury bond yields, and an escalating risk-on environment. These elements have all come together to deliver a significant blow to gold’s price, leaving investors questioning the viability of the once safe-haven asset in this new market context.

At the heart of gold's latest struggle lies the unexpectedly strong performance of former President Donald Trump in the US presidential race. The initial exit poll results show Trump in the lead, with a 227-189 electoral vote tally in his favor over Vice President Kamala Harris. More importantly, Trump’s grip on key swing states – including Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin – has rekindled the so-called "Trump trade," triggering a sharp rally in the US Dollar. This political development has prompted aggressive selling across the precious metals market as investors reposition themselves amid the shifting political landscape.

Trump’s potential return to the White House has raised fresh concerns regarding inflationary pressures, particularly in the form of potentially new tariffs and increased deficit spending. These fears are evident in the bond market, where the yield on the benchmark 10-year US Treasury note surged by over 15 basis points, climbing nearly 3.5% intraday to 4.44% – the highest it has been since early July. The increase in bond yields makes gold, which offers no yield, less attractive compared to risk-free US government debt, further driving selling pressure on the metal.

In addition to the political dynamics, market sentiment is also shifting in a risk-on direction. The US equity futures have staged a strong rally in response to the election exit polls, with investors seemingly betting on a return to pro-business policies under a Trump presidency. As risk appetite surges, gold, traditionally viewed as a safe-haven asset, has been left vulnerable to further losses. This has contributed to capping any potential recovery in gold prices, with the market largely adopting a risk-on stance as a major theme.

Notably, the collapse in gold prices comes despite geopolitical tensions simmering in the Middle East. Reports that Iran is planning a retaliatory strike against Israel following the attack on its territory on October 26 have not provided the expected haven bid for gold. It seems that, in this environment, investors are more focused on the US political landscape and the economic implications of a potential Trump presidency than they are on traditional safe-haven factors.

Technical Analysis

From a technical perspective, gold prices have been consistently bearish, with the commodity recently breaching the first support target of $2,718.80 and now approaching the next target at $2,696.85. There is some indication of a modest recovery attempt at the moment, but this is seen as more of a correction within the larger bearish trend. The key resistance level to watch for is $2,746.00; as long as prices remain below this threshold, the downward trajectory is expected to continue, with further negative targets on the horizon.

Should gold manage to break above $2,746.00, the outlook would shift, signaling the potential for a more significant recovery. A move above this resistance could propel gold towards $2,789.90, resuming its previous bullish momentum within the broader upward channel that has been in play for some time. However, with current market conditions dominated by USD strength, rising bond yields, and a growing risk-on sentiment, such a scenario appears unlikely in the immediate term.

For today, the expected trading range for XAU/USD is between $2,710.00 on the downside and $2,765.00 on the upside. Given the prevailing trends, the bias remains firmly bearish, with further downside potential in the coming sessions.

TRADE RECOMMENDATION

SELL XAUUSD

ENTRY PRICE: 2725

STOP LOSS: 2760

TAKE PROFIT: 2680

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

You understand and acknowledge that there is a high degree of risk involved in trading. Following any strategies or investment methods may lead to potential losses. The content on the site is provided by our contributors and analysts for information purposes only. You are solely responsible for determining whether any trading assets, securities, strategy, or any other product is suitable for investing based on your own investment objectives and financial situation.

Add to Favorites

Manuel

Cryptocurrency

Summary:

This breakout could provide the momentum necessary for DOGE to target its local high at $0.2280, particularly if Trump secures a win in the U.S. elections.

BUY DOGE-USDT

EXP

TRADING

0.18280

Entry Price

0.22500

0.14000

0.19844 +0.00676 +3.53%

0.0

Pips

Flat

0.14000

Exit Price

0.18280

Entry Price

0.22500

Dogecoin (DOGE) is one of the top-performing crypto assets, surging 12% within the past 24 hours. The growing positive sentiment around DOGE is largely tied to the anticipation of the U.S. presidential election results, with markets broadly forecasting a Republican win. This optimism has fueled DOGE’s impressive 65% rise since October 1st. Analysts speculate that if Donald Trump secures the presidency, Dogecoin could experience an additional 30% price jump within mere hours.

Elon Musk’s well-known affinity for DOGE has also bolstered the coin's appeal. Recently, Musk, CEO of Tesla, proposed establishing a “Department of Government Efficiency” to reduce bureaucracy and cut costs for taxpayers. Interestingly, the department’s acronym, D.O.G.E, mirrors Dogecoin’s ticker, adding to DOGE's visibility and potentially contributing to on-chain activity growth. According to IntoTheBlock data, the number of new DOGE addresses has surged by 100%, reaching close to 48,000 by the end of October.

Meme coins have seen significant gains, with Dogecoin leading among top 100 cryptocurrencies by market cap, rising over 12%. Other meme tokens like Shiba Inu (SHIB), Pepe (PEPE), and Dogwifhat (WIF) have also gained roughly 8% each, although DOGE clearly leads in both price action and overall visibility in the meme coin space.

Elon Musk, rumored to have spent over $130 million in support of Trump’s campaign, has made several references to DOGE at Trump’s campaign events. His playful endorsement adds another layer of intrigue to DOGE’s outlook and could positively influence investor sentiment.

The crypto sector has leaned toward supporting Trump, with the former president embracing the industry more openly this year. His pro-crypto promises include plans to bolster the Bitcoin mining industry, add cryptocurrency to the nation’s reserves, and transform the U.S. into a global hub for crypto innovation.

Polymarket, a blockchain-based prediction platform, places Trump’s victory odds at 60%, compared to 40% for Democratic candidate Kamala Harris. Though Trump’s chances have declined by 6% in the past week, they remain up by 11% over the last 30 days. The prediction contract currently has over $3 billion staked, reflecting strong public interest. DOGE Takes the Lead Amid Political Speculation_1

DOGE Takes the Lead Amid Political Speculation_1

Technical Analysis

DOGE recently broke past the $0.1750 resistance level, a price not seen since May 24. This breakout could provide the momentum necessary for DOGE to target its local high at $0.2280, particularly if Trump secures a win in the U.S. elections.

DOGE’s 100- and 200-day moving averages are positioned well below the current price, around $0.1126 and $0.1240, respectively. This consolidation above these key moving averages, combined with the geopolitical backdrop, could serve as a catalyst for DOGE to reach or even surpass its local high.

Trading Recommendations

Trading direction: Buy

Entry price: 0.1825

Target price: 0.2250

Stop loss: 0.1400

Validity: Nov 15, 2024 15:00:00

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

Add to Favorites

Manuel

Cryptocurrency

Summary:

Given Bitcoin's solid fundamentals in anticipation of a potential bull run, altcoins, especially Solana, are becoming increasingly appealing.

BUY SOL-USDT

EXP

TRADING

172.98

Entry Price

220.00

150.00

189.94 +4.43 +2.39%

0.0

Pips

Flat

150.00

Exit Price

172.98

Entry Price

220.00

Solana continues to dominate decentralized exchange (DEX) volumes, marking a strong user engagement and transaction fee generation that are essential for sustainable growth. These metrics also position Solana as an attractive ecosystem for new projects and traders seeking high activity levels and low-cost transactions, helping to drive further adoption.

Recent data highlights Solana’s clear lead over Ethereum’s network. Even with Ethereum's layer-2 solutions aiming to reduce fees, none have managed to match Solana’s impressive $11.86 billion in weekly DEX activity, emphasizing that low fees alone may not be enough to compete with Solana’s user base and ecosystem advantages.

In terms of revenue, Solana generated $20.5 million in fees over the past week, a significant figure given Ethereum’s $22.6 million in the same period, as reported by DefiLlama. This gap is all the more remarkable considering that Ethereum holds $47.5 billion in total value locked (TVL), nearly eight times Solana’s $6 billion. This performance underscores Solana’s efficiency in achieving high activity levels with lower TVL.

Staking yields further differentiate Solana’s network, with SOL holders earning a native staking return of 6.5%, leading to 66.9% of SOL’s circulating supply actively participating in network validation. In contrast, Ethereum’s staking rate stands at 28.6%, and BNB Chain’s at 22.4%, leaving a larger share of liquid supply available for immediate sale on these networks, which may influence market dynamics in times of high volatility.

Furthermore, SOL’s inflation rate has decreased to 5.4% from 5.7% over the past three months, according to StakingRewards. This reduction enhances the net yield for participants in Solana’s validation process, addressing previous concerns about SOL’s inflation rate and making it more appealing for long-term holders.

The crypto industry has recently leaned towards pro-Trump sentiment, as the former U.S. president incorporated the new asset class into his political discourse. Trump’s promises to support Bitcoin mining, add cryptocurrency to national reserves, and position the U.S. as a global cryptocurrency hub resonate with many crypto investors.

After trading below $67,000 in early morning EDT hours, Bitcoin (BTC) surged above $70,000, posting a 3% increase in the last 24 hours, though it remains down nearly 5% from last Tuesday, when it nearly reached its historical high of $73,700.

The U.S. elections are likely a significant factor behind Bitcoin’s recent price swings. Analysts had previously suggested that this major event could inject volatility into the crypto market, possibly affecting prices until election results are announced on Friday.

Some observers predict that Bitcoin may experience fluctuations of up to $8,000 in either direction before the U.S. election winner is officially declared, underscoring the current market sensitivity. DEX Volumes on Sol Leading Towards a Bullish Breakout_1

DEX Volumes on Sol Leading Towards a Bullish Breakout_1

Technical Analysis

Given Bitcoin's solid fundamentals in anticipation of a potential bull run, altcoins, especially Solana, are becoming increasingly appealing. Currently trading at $172, Solana has found support from bullish momentum near its 100- and 200-day moving averages, positioning it for a potential breakout.

The RSI is crossing the 58 level, indicating that there is no overbought condition, which leaves room for further buying interest. If a Trump victory announcement fuels market optimism, it could accelerate price action for Solana. A breakout above the descending trendline may drive SOL up towards the $220 level, making this a pivotal time for potential gains.

Trading Recommendations

Trading direction: Buy

Entry price: 172

Target price: 220

Stop loss: 150

Validity: Nov 15, 2024 15:00:00

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

Add to Favorites

Eva Chen

Forex

Political

Summary:

The EURUSD is consolidating below 1.0900 amid a cautiously optimistic sentiment. Bulls need a robust rebound above 1.1000 to regain control. The spread of Eurozone government bonds may fluctuate following the U.S. elections.

SELL EURUSD

EXP

PENDING

1.09500

Entry Price

1.05770

1.10590

1.07320 +0.00038 +0.04%

Pips

PENDING

1.05770

Exit Price

1.09500

Entry Price

1.10590

Fundamentals

On Tuesday during the European session, the EURUSD consolidated, falling below 1.0900. The uncertainty surrounding the outcome of the U.S. presidential election lingers, leading to a stabilization of the U.S. dollar in a cautiously optimistic environment.

The yield spread of Eurozone government bonds is approaching the fair value indicated by Citigroup's model, but it may change following the U.S. election. Analysts noted, "Historical precedents suggest that if the Republican Party wins, the yield spread of Eurozone government bonds faces the risk of widening, while a Democratic victory poses a risk of narrowing." However, they mentioned that given the current pricing conditions, a Republican candidate like Trump winning in a divided Congress could be neutral for the spread.

Meanwhile, a victory for Democratic candidate Harris is expected to narrow the spread, while a significant Republican win would likely lead to an expansion of the spread.

MARKET WATCH: The EURUSD has nearly maintained its gains from the past few days, which were based on the European Central Bank's (ECB) opposition to a 50 basis point rate cut in December, last Friday's weak U.S. employment report, and yesterday's Iowa poll results indicating that Harris may perform better than expected. If a clear election result emerges tomorrow, the market is likely to have a strong directional bias.

Technical Analysis

The EURUSD is showing a cautiously optimistic momentum on the day of the U.S. elections, with the potential to break through the consolidation range of 1.0880-1.0914 over the past three trading days.

Recently, the EURUSD has rebounded from a short-term low of 1.0760, and this upward movement may continue. However, the 55-day SMA, currently at 1.0935, is expected to present significant resistance, limiting the potential for further gains. On the downside, a break of the minor support at 1.0831 would first retest 1.0760, followed by the 61.8% retracement level of 1.0740, which lies between 1.0447 and 1.1213.

From a broader perspective, the price trend since the peak of 1.1274 (reached in 2023) is viewed as a consolidation pattern within the upward trend that began from the low of 0.9534 (in 2022). The decline from 1.1213 is considered the third phase of this trend. The downside potential should be constrained by the 50% retracement level of 1.0404, which is from the range between 0.9534 (a low in 2022) and 1.1274, to facilitate a later recovery of the upward trend.

Overall, despite the recent rebound of the EURUSD from a three-month low of 1.0760, it is not out of the woods yet. To mitigate downside risks and restore the previous positive trend, the EURUSD must consistently break through the 1.1000 threshold.

Trading Recommendations

Trading Direction: Sell

Entry Price: 1.0950

Target Price: 1.0577

Stop Loss: 1.1059

Deadline: November 20, 2024 23:55:00

Support: 1.0880, 1.0831, 1.0760

Resistance: 1.0914, 1.0935, 1.0955

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

Add to Favorites

Adam

Forex

Summary:

On November 5, 2024, the USD/CHF pair is being influenced by the US presidential election and monetary policies from the Federal Reserve (Fed). In the coming time, the trend of USD/CHF may be dominated by macroeconomic and political factors....

BUY USDCHF

Close Time

CLOSED

0.86279

Entry Price

0.86700

0.86000

0.87550 -0.00094 -0.11%

42.1

Pips

Profit

0.86000

0.86700

Exit Price

0.86279

Entry Price

0.86700

As of November 5, 2024, USD/CHF is trading around 0.8628. The market is being influenced by the US presidential election, with the possibility of changes in fiscal policy and public spending if there is a change in the ruling party. The Fed is expected to cut interest rates by another 0.25% this week, putting pressure on the USD. In contrast, the Swiss National Bank (SNB) has maintained a stable monetary policy, protecting the Swiss Franc as a safe haven asset. This difference between the two central banks is an important factor affecting the USD/CHF exchange rate. The technical chart shows that USD/CHF is in a consolidation phase, with important support and resistance levels at 0.8524 and 0.8736, respectively.

Market psychology

Current investor sentiment reflects concerns about the election results and the outlook for the US economy. Investors are seeking safer assets such as gold and government bonds. Trading data shows that large investors are adjusting positions to hedge against political risks. This uncertainty has increased demand for the Swiss franc, although the US dollar has maintained its strength on expectations of new economic policies after the election.

Technical analysis

USD/CHF Tăng Trưởng Trong Bối Cảnh Bầu Cử Mỹ và Chính Sách Tiền Tệ: Cơ Hội Mua?_1

On the M15 chart for USD/CHF, the price is hovering near support at 0.8615 and resistance at 0.8640. The Stochastic indicator shows buying pressure as the indicator enters oversold territory, signaling a possible bullish reversal. The Bollinger Bands indicate strong volatility, with a potential upside if the price breaks above the current resistance. The SMA is also above the EMA, confirming that the short-term uptrend could continue.

Trading Recommendations

Based on fundamental and technical analysis:

Entry: Buy at current price around 0.8628.

Take Profit: Set target profit at 0.8670.

Stop Loss: Stop loss if price falls below 0.8600.

Investors should closely monitor developments from the US election and the Fed's decision to adjust their trading strategy to suit the market situation. Risk management is extremely important in the current high volatility environment, so careful consideration should be given before making investment decisions.

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

Add to Favorites

Adam

Forex

Summary:

On November 5, 2024, the USD/JPY market experienced notable fluctuations due to the impact of the US presidential election and the monetary policy decisions of the Federal Reserve (Fed). In the coming time, the trend of USD/JPY may continue to be influenced by political and macroeconomic factors....

SELL USDJPY

Close Time

CLOSED

152.500

Entry Price

151.600

153.000

154.398 -0.225 -0.15%

50.0

Pips

Loss

151.600

153.005

Exit Price

152.500

Entry Price

153.000

On November 5, 2024, USD/JPY was trading around 152.50. The market is focused on the results of the US presidential election, with the possibility of changes in fiscal policy and public spending if there is a change in the ruling party. At the same time, the Fed is expected to cut interest rates by another 0.25% this week, putting pressure on the USD. These factors are making the currency market more volatile than ever. In addition, the economic situation in Japan also plays an important role as the Bank of Japan (BoJ) continues to maintain an easy monetary policy to stimulate economic growth. The difference in monetary policy between the two countries is a key factor affecting the USD/JPY exchange rate.

Market psychology

Current investor sentiment reflects concerns about the election results and the outlook for the U.S. economy. The Fear and Greed Index shows caution as investors seek safer assets such as gold and government bonds. Trading data shows that large investors are adjusting positions to hedge against political risks. This uncertainty has increased demand for the Japanese yen as a safe-haven asset, although the U.S. dollar has remained strong on expectations of new economic policies after the election.

Technical analysis

USD/JPY Tăng Trưởng Trong Bối Cảnh Bầu Cử Mỹ: Xu Hướng Nào Sẽ Thống Trị?_1

On the M5 chart, USD/JPY is hovering near the resistance at 153.86 after breaking above previous resistance levels at 147.50-150.00. The Stochastic indicator shows selling pressure but is entering the oversold zone, signaling a possible bullish reversal. The Bollinger Bands indicate strong volatility, with a possible rise in price if the current resistance level is broken.

Trading Recommendations

Based on fundamental and technical analysis

Entry: Buy at current price around 152.50.

Take Profit: Set target profit at 155.60.

Stop Loss: Stop loss if price falls below 153.00.

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

Add to Favorites

Alan

Commodity

Central Bank

Summary:

The U.S. presidential election is reaching a critical phase. If Trump is elected, it could be beneficial for silver prices, whereas a Harris victory might negatively impact them. Additionally, this week, attention should be paid to the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting and Powell's speech.

BUY XAGUSD

Close Time

CLOSED

32.674

Entry Price

35.300

31.200

31.036 -0.125 -0.40%

147.4

Pips

Loss

31.200

Exit Price

32.674

Entry Price

35.300

Fundamentals

Today, the U.S. elections are reaching a critical phase, and it remains uncertain whether Trump or Harris will assume the presidency. However, the market anticipates that a Trump victory could stimulate demand, as his proposed economic policies are believed to potentially trigger inflation, which may drive silver prices to new highs. Conversely, if Harris is elected, it could alleviate inflation concerns, leading to a more subdued reaction in the metals market, as her policies are viewed as a continuation of the current Biden administration's economic strategies.

In addition to the U.S. elections, attention should also be paid to the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting on Friday. The significantly disappointing non-farm payroll data from last week has nearly solidified the expectation of a rate cut in November, which could further support rising silver prices. It is crucial to closely monitor the remarks from Fed Chairman Powell during the meeting, particularly regarding the potential for further easing if the U.S. economy shows signs of weakness.

Moreover, following Iran's announcement over the weekend of plans to retaliate against Israel, tensions in the Middle East are escalating, which may once again highlight the safe-haven attributes of gold and silver. Increased safe-haven buying, along with a rise in buying at the dips due to recent price corrections, could propel silver prices higher.

Technical Analysis

Pullback Is Coming to an End, and the Bullish Trend Is Set to Continue_1

In the 1D timeframe, silver has shown signs of a reversal since the pullback that began on October 22, with yesterday's candlestick forming a bullish doji at the critical support level of US$32.30. Meanwhile, it has retraced to the upward trend line, maintaining a slight upward momentum today, which indicates a bullish resonance. This suggests that silver may stabilize and rebound, potentially continuing its previous upward trend.

Currently, silver remains in an upward trend. If the price holds above the US$32.30 support level, it may sustain this upward trend in the future. Conversely, if it continues to decline, it could test the support range of US$31.60 to US$31.90.

It is recommended to go long at the lows.

Trading Recommendations

Trading Direction: Buy

Entry Price: 32.50

Target Price: 35.30

Stop Loss: 31.20

Deadline: November 19, 2024 15:00:00

Support: 32.23, 31.90, 31.34

Resistance: 33.11, 34.51, 34.85

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

Add to Favorites

Daily News

Remarks of Officials

Central Bank

Forex

FastBull Events

FastBull Featured

Devin

Mohammad Omar

Recent Searches

Top Searches

Markets

News

Analysis

User

24/7

Economic Calendar

Education

Data

Gold Suffers Major Losses as USD Hits Four-Month High in Wake of Trump’s Election Gains

DOGE Takes the Lead Amid Political Speculation

DEX Volumes on Sol Leading Towards a Bullish Breakout

Technical Analysis

Focus on U.S. Elections

Fundamentals

Technical Analysis

Trading Recommendations

USD/CHF Gains Amid US Elections and Monetary Policy: Buying Opportunity?

Market psychology

Technical analysis

Trading Recommendations

USD/JPY Gains Amid US Election: Which Trend Will Dominate?

Market psychology

Technical analysis

Trading Recommendations

Pullback Is Coming to an End, and the Bullish Trend Is Set to Continue

Fundamentals

Technical Analysis

Trading Recommendations

Risk Disclosure