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Interest Rate Cut Cycle May Be Kicked Off
Summary:
The market generally anticipates that the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) will cut the interest rate by 25 basis points at its February interest rate decision. This may potentially open the RBA's interest rate cut cycle, and the Australian dollar may come under pressure and weaken.
CLOSED
0.62706
Entry Price
0.59900
TP
0.63400
SL
0.63497 -0.00508 -0.79%
69.4
Pips
Loss
0.59900
TP
0.63401
Exit Price
0.62706
Entry Price
0.63400
SL
Fundamentals
Recently, Australia released its CPI data for the fourth quarter of 2024, indicating an unexpected decline. The trimmed mean inflation rate in the fourth quarter of 2024 dropped to 3.2%, lower than the RBA's forecast of 3.4%. Moreover, the quarterly growth rate slowed to 0.5%, significantly lower than the expected 0.7%. This data is regarded as a key progress in the RBA's achievement of the inflation target, strengthening the market's confidence in the RBA's interest rate cut at the February interest rate decision.
Meanwhile, Australia's unemployment rate rose to 4.0% in December 2024. It indicates signs of weakness in the Australian labor market, further increasing the likelihood of an RBA interest rate cut.
As of February, the four major banks in Australia (Commonwealth Bank, Westpac Bank, National Australia Bank, and ANZ Bank) have all predicted that the RBA will cut the interest rate by 25 basis points to 4.10% at its meeting on February 18th. Also, the market pricing probability reaches 93%.
Currently, the market generally believes that the RBA's interest rate cut in February will be the beginning of an easing cycle, with an expected cumulative interest rate cut of 100 to 125 basis points in 2025.
Technical Analysis
Based on the daily chart, the overall trend of AUD/USD is in an outstanding downtrend. In addition, AUD/USD gapped down significantly and broke through the support level on February 3rd, recovering all the losses on the same day and rising for several consecutive trading days. However, the current candlestick pattern is still suppressed by the 60-day moving average. It hovers below the 60-day moving average and shows signs of weakening, indicating that the medium- to long-term bearish trend of this asset has not changed.
At present, if AUD/USD drops below the 60-day moving average, it may continue the previous downward trend. The first target for the decline will be the low of 0.6087 on February 3rd. If a new low is set, it may potentially fall below 0.60.It is recommended to sell at highs.
Trading Recommendations
Trading direction: Sell
Entry price: 0.6280
Target price: 0.5990
Stop loss: 0.6340
Valid Until: February 27, 2025 23:00:00
Support: 0.6232/0.6087/0.6000
Resistance: 0.6308/0.6330/0.6397
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