Irregular Head and Shoulders Pattern on Daily Chart Signals Increased Short-Term Bearish Outlook

Economic

Forex

Summary:

The UK economy continues to struggle. Weak economic growth and a contraction in the manufacturing sector have intensified market concerns over the GBP, potentially putting downward pressure on the currency.

SELL GBPCAD

Close Time

CLOSED

1.78265

Entry Price

1.73400

1.79330

1.79667 +0.00146 +0.08%

106.5

Pips

Loss

1.73400

1.79337

Exit Price

1.78265

Entry Price

1.79330

Fundamentals

On February 6, the UK's economic data remained lackluster. Amidst persistent inflationary pressures, the Bank of England (BoE) delivered another interest rate cut, lowering rates by 25 basis points to 4.5%, in line with market expectations. The market forecasts that the UK will see three more rate cuts this year. Despite the BoE's previous efforts to maintain high interest rates to curb inflation, the combination of weak economic growth and a contracting manufacturing sector has heightened concerns over the pound, likely leading to further downward pressure on the currency.

In contrast, the Bank of Canada (BoC)'s early initiation of a rate-cutting cycle to stimulate domestic economic recovery has provided support to the CAD. Additionally, as a major exporter of commodities, particularly energy, Canada is set to benefit from the global recovery in energy demand, which is expected to lend further support to the loonie. Moreover, the integration of the North American supply chain in 2025 and the easing of tariff threats from the US (with the Trump administration recently deciding to delay the implementation of tariffs on Canadian goods) have further bolstered market confidence in the CAD.

From a relative perspective, the GBP is likely to remain under pressure due to the strong expectations of BoE rate cuts and economic growth headwinds. Meanwhile, the CAD is expected to maintain a relatively stronger position against the GBP. As a result, the GBPCAD exchange rate is likely to face downward pressure.

Technical Analysis

On the daily chart, GBPCAD has maintained an upward trend since late September last year. Recently, the price has tested the resistance level of 1.8200 three times without achieving a decisive breakthrough. This has gradually exhausted the upward momentum, with the candlestick pattern forming an irregular head-and-shoulders top. Additionally, the asset's candlesticks have begun to fall below the MA60 and MA144, further increasing the likelihood of a short-term decline.

On the downside, the first target for GBPCAD is the neckline at 1.7500. Should this level be breached, the downside space will open up further, with the potential to fall to the platform support level at 1.7330.

Trading Recommendations

Trading Direction: Sell

Entry Price: 1.7830

Target Price: 1.7340

Stop Loss: 1.7933

Valid Until: February 28, 2025, 23:00:00

Support: 1.7676/1.7500/1.7330

Resistance: 1.7864/1.7922/1.8173

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Manuel

Central Bank

Economic

Summary:

EURCAD recently tested a local low at 1.4740 on February 7, forming an ascending channel structure.

BUY EURCAD

EXP

PENDING

1.47900

Entry Price

1.50000

1.47000

1.48784 -0.00036 -0.02%

Pips

PENDING

1.47000

Exit Price

1.47900

Entry Price

1.50000

European Central Bank (ECB) policymaker Boris Vujčić mentioned on Thursday that markets are anticipating three more rate cuts this year, noting that these expectations seem reasonable.

He also suggested that the ECB might adjust its wording on "restrictive policy" as soon as the March statement. Forecasts for rate cuts largely reflect the outlook for a notable decline in services inflation in the coming months.

Economic data from the eurozone on Thursday came in line with expectations, offering little new direction for traders. However, U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI) data, which mostly exceeded forecasts, provided some relief to investors concerned about persistent inflationary pressures. Core PPI inflation for the 12 months ending in January stood at 3.6% year-over-year, surpassing the 3.3% forecast but slightly below the revised 3.7% figure (previously reported at 3.5%).

Geopolitical and Trade Uncertainty Weighs on Market Sentiment

The ongoing geopolitical situation in Europe remains a key factor influencing market sentiment. Progress toward a peace agreement between Russia and Ukraine could provide a major boost to European economies by lowering energy costs and encouraging broader investment. This could translate into stronger economic growth, particularly if policy measures aimed at rebuilding infrastructure and restoring stability are implemented.

At the same time, trade tensions present a significant challenge. The persistent threat of tariffs continues to weigh on business confidence and consumer sentiment, creating an uncertain outlook for the euro. While speculative positioning shows that investors are reducing short positions on the currency, the overall market remains cautious as concerns about potential trade restrictions linger.

The ECB has already implemented five rate cuts since June of last year and has signaled the possibility of further monetary easing. Market participants expect at least three additional rate reductions in 2024, as policymakers attempt to steer inflation toward the central bank’s 2% target. The most recent rate cut in January lowered the deposit facility rate by 25 basis points to 2.75%.

Meanwhile, the Bank of Canada (BoC) also acknowledged the risks associated with trade policy uncertainty in its latest report. Officials noted that heightened tariff threats could dampen business confidence and consumer spending, reinforcing the case for maintaining a more accommodative monetary stance. EURCAD Eyes Rebound From the Lower Boundary of an Ascending Channel_1

EURCAD Eyes Rebound From the Lower Boundary of an Ascending Channel_1

Technical Analysis

EUR/CAD recently tested a local low at 1.4740 on February 7, forming an ascending channel structure. If geopolitical developments turn favorable, particularly with signs of progress in Eastern Europe, the euro could gain bullish momentum, reinforcing the pair’s upward trajectory.

At its recent low, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) reached 24, indicating deeply oversold conditions. This suggests that bearish pressure may be weakening, potentially setting the stage for a rebound.

Key technical levels to watch include the 100-period and 200-period moving averages, both positioned near 1.4880. A confirmed breakout above this zone could signal continued bullish momentum, while a failure to hold this level may lead to further downside pressure. A breakdown below 1.4740 would establish a new lower low, indicating a shift in market structure and potentially accelerating selling pressure.

Trading Recommendations

Trading direction: Buy

Entry price: 1.4790

Target price: 1.5000

Stop loss: 1.4700

Validity: Feb 25, 2025 15:00:00

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Manuel

Cryptocurrency

Summary:

If buyers successfully defend this area, the price could see an upward push toward $220, where the 200-period moving average currently resides.

BUY SOL-USDT

Close Time

CLOSED

195.54

Entry Price

219.00

182.00

173.31 +0.15 +0.09%

135.4

Pips

Loss

182.00

181.91

Exit Price

195.54

Entry Price

219.00

The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) is currently evaluating multiple Solana (SOL) ETF applications, marking a potential shift in its stance on crypto-based investment products. This comes as industry participants closely monitor the regulator’s evolving approach to such offerings.

Canary Capital’s Solana Trust became the latest addition to the growing list of proposed ETFs on Tuesday, joining filings from VanEck, 21Shares, and Bitwise. These applications seek to bring Solana investment products to Wall Street, further legitimizing the asset within traditional financial markets.

This wave of filings follows Grayscale’s Solana ETF application last week, which the SEC has officially acknowledged—potentially setting a precedent for broader approval across the industry.

"The SEC has made a significant shift regarding the Solana ETF—going from outright dismissing the idea to acknowledging Grayscale’s amended SOL ETF application," said Chris Chung, founder of Solana swap platform Titan, in a statement to Decrypt.

Adding to the momentum, Franklin Templeton’s integration with the Solana network has fueled speculation of an imminent SEC filing for its own Solana ETF. The firm, which recently registered a Solana trust in Delaware, has been vocal in its belief that SOL could emerge as the third-largest cryptocurrency after Bitcoin and Ethereum.

The Solana network is demonstrating remarkable growth, according to a recent report from investment firm Pantera Capital.

With an exponential surge in active users and transaction volumes, Solana is solidifying its position as a major player in the cryptocurrency ecosystem—despite still being in the early stages of adoption, the report states.

The potential approval of a Solana ETF could serve as a major catalyst for its global adoption, according to Pantera Capital, signaling a new era for institutional investment in SOL.

The network’s impressive performance in 2024 is evident in its key metrics. Monthly active addresses soared to nearly 160 million in December—a staggering 26-fold increase from the 6 million recorded at the end of 2023. This surge has surpassed even Pantera Capital’s most optimistic projections.

Additionally, decentralized exchange (DEX) trading volume on Solana has seen an unprecedented rise.

Throughout Q4 2024, Solana’s DEX volumes consistently outpaced those of Ethereum, reaching a remarkable $30 billion per month. This surge highlights the network’s growing dominance in the DeFi space, further solidifying its status as a top-tier blockchain. Solana Poised for a Surge as Institutional Interest Grows_1

Solana Poised for a Surge as Institutional Interest Grows_1

Technical Analysis

Solana has recently tested the $187 level multiple times, suggesting the formation of a strong support zone. If buyers successfully defend this area, the price could see an upward push toward $220, where the 200-period moving average currently resides.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is hovering at 46, indicating neutral momentum—neither oversold nor overbought. This suggests traders should remain cautious, as the market could still move in either direction.

Solana’s last major peak was $295 on January 19. If the price breaks above $220, the next key resistance level to watch would be $244. Conversely, a decisive break below the ascending trendline near $180 could open the door to further downside, potentially accelerating losses.

Trading Recommendations

Trading direction: Buy

Entry price: 196

Target price: 219

Stop loss: 182

Validity: Feb 25, 2025 15:00:00

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Eva Chen

Economic

Forex

Summary:

Amid preparations by former U.S. President Trump to impose reciprocal tariffs, investors are bracing for heightened uncertainty. EURUSD retreated from its high of 1.0440 during the day. As the European Central Bank (ECB) approaches a neutral stance, Bundesbank Executive Board member Joachim Nagel advocates for a gradual rate cut.

BUY EURUSD

EXP

PENDING

1.03400

Entry Price

1.06350

1.01900

1.04567 -0.00439 -0.42%

Pips

PENDING

1.01900

Exit Price

1.03400

Entry Price

1.06350

Fundamentals

As the U.S. dollar rebounded during the European session on Thursday, EURUSD gave back some of its earlier gains, falling from an intraday high of 1.0440 to below 1.0400. President Trump's post on his Truth Social account reaffirming the implementation of reciprocal tariffs spurred the dollar's recovery.

Reciprocal tariffs are expected to have a negative impact on the Eurozone economy. They would raise the import tariff on European automobiles from the current 2.5% to 10%. The U.S. is the second-largest market for EU auto exports after the UK, accounting for over 20% of the EU's total auto exports in 2023, according to data from the European Automobile Manufacturers Association (ACEA).

This situation could trigger a trade war between Europe and the U.S. On Tuesday, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen warned that the EU would take action to "safeguard its economic interests" and was prepared to adopt "appropriate countermeasures." Her remarks followed Trump's imposition of a 25% tariff on all imported steel and aluminum, which she said "would not go unchallenged."

Meanwhile, with the Eurozone economy showing signs of weakness and inflation pressures expected to rise back to the 2% target this year, the market strongly anticipates that the ECB will prolong its monetary easing cycle, keeping the euro's outlook fragile.

Speaking at the London School of Economics, Bundesbank Executive Board member Joachim Nagel emphasized that as the ECB approaches a neutral interest rate, a "gradual approach" becomes more appropriate. Given the current uncertainty, he argued that "there is no reason to rush into action."

Nagel remains confident that the inflation rate will return to the 2% target level by mid-year, stating, "We have not reached the target yet, but I am very confident that we will achieve it by mid-year." He also dismissed concerns that inflation would fall short of expectations.

The Correction Isn't Over – Seize the Dip for Profit_1

Technical Analysis

The outlook for EURUSD remains unchanged as the consolidation that began at 1.0176 continues. The bias remains neutral-leaning during the day. As long as the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of the 1.1213 to 1.0176 move, at 1.0572, holds, the outlook for EURUSD remains bearish.

On the downside, a break below 1.0176 would resume the entire downtrend that began at 1.1213. However, a decisive breach above 1.0572 would increase the chances of a reversal, targeting the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level at 1.0817.

Trading Recommendations

Trading Direction: Buy

Entry Price: 1.0340

Target Price: 1.0635

Stop Loss: 1.0190

Valid Until: February 28, 2025, 23:55:00

Support: 1.0337/1.0281/1.0209

Resistance: 1.0440/1.0532/1.0628

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Eva Chen

Forex

Economic

Summary:

The US dollar faced some selling pressure on Wednesday and Thursday, hitting a new weekly low during the Asian trading session. Despite higher-than-expected US inflation data in January and a weakening expectation for rate cuts by the Fed, which should have been a tailwind for the dollar, technical analysis suggests otherwise.

SELL USDX

Close Time

CLOSED

107.200

Entry Price

105.800

108.600

106.500 +0.240 +0.23%

55.0

Pips

Profit

105.800

106.650

Exit Price

107.200

Entry Price

108.600

Fundamentals

On Wednesday evening, US inflation data came in above expectations across the board. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) for January increased by 3.0% YoY and 0.5% MoM, exceeding the expected 2.9% and 0.3%, respectively. The Core CPI, which excludes the more volatile food and energy prices, rose by 0.4% MoM and 3.3% YoY, also surpassing expectations.

The rise in inflation was primarily driven by housing prices. A robust labor market and lingering inflation risks could prompt the Fed to maintain interest rates at their current levels in the near term. Subsequently, Fed Chair Jerome Powell testified before the House of Representatives, adopting a hawkish stance. He noted that the January CPI data indicate progress on inflation but that the target has not yet been fully achieved, and he preferred to keep policy restrictive for now.

Austan D. Goolsbee, the President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago and a voting member this year, described the latest CPI data as “alarming.” The market now expects the Fed to cut rates only once in 2025, by 25 basis points, with the first rate cut delayed from September to December.

Following the release of US inflation data and Powell’s remarks, the 10-year Treasury yield stood at 4.634%, while the 2-year Treasury yield was at 4.380%. The US Dollar Index rose by 0.5%, with all indicators climbing after the CPI report.

However, as Russia and Ukraine agreed to begin peace talks, market sentiment shifted in favor of risk assets.

US President Donald Trump confirmed that he had held a “lengthy and productive” conversation with Russian President Vladimir Putin, who agreed to initiate peace talks with Ukraine. This development led to a more optimistic market sentiment and a sharp decline in the US dollar.

Technical Analysis

Despite a brief rally in the US dollar following the CPI data release, it remains capped below the resistance level of 108.40, consistent with our previous analysis. The triangular consolidation pattern continues to be key to the trend. A breakout is expected to lead to a more pronounced movement in the dollar.

From a technical perspective, the dollar is still at risk of a pullback if it fails to break through the 108.40 resistance level. However, the MA100 is providing strong support. Traders should closely monitor the weekly closing price. If it closes as a bearish Doji, it would signal a potential continuation of the downward trend, and trading strategies should focus on positioning for further declines.

Trading Recommendations

Trading Direction: Sell

Entry Price: 108.20

Target Price: 105.80

Stop Loss: 108.60

Valid Until: February 28, 2025, 23:55:00

Support: 107.49/107.30/106.97

Resistance: 108.00/108.54/108.79

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Warren Takunda

Economic

Summary:

The USD/CAD currency pair has fallen below the crucial 1.4300 mark, driven by risk-on market sentiment as news of a potential Russia-Ukraine truce eases geopolitical tensions.

SELL USDCAD

Close Time

CLOSED

1.42900

Entry Price

1.40000

1.44100

1.42163 +0.00427 +0.30%

122.8

Pips

Profit

1.40000

1.41672

Exit Price

1.42900

Entry Price

1.44100

The USD/CAD currency pair saw a sharp decline on Thursday, dropping below the key 1.4300 level during the European trading session. This move reflects a shift in market sentiment, as global investors embraced a more risk-on attitude. The catalyst for this change in mood came after US President Donald Trump confirmed that the leaders of Russia and Ukraine had agreed to engage in talks to end their nearly three-year-long war. The potential for a peaceful resolution sparked optimism, cooling geopolitical tensions and boosting demand for riskier assets, including the Canadian Dollar (CAD), which gained ground in the process. However, despite this positive shift in sentiment, the US Dollar (USD) continues to exhibit strength, bolstered by expectations that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will maintain its hawkish stance and keep interest rates elevated for an extended period.

Market sentiment surged after Trump’s announcement that both Russian President Vladimir Putin and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky had agreed to start discussions aimed at ending the prolonged conflict. This announcement, coming after nearly three years of devastating war, ignited optimism that a resolution could be on the horizon. As a result, global equity markets rallied, and demand for risk-sensitive assets increased. The Canadian Dollar, in particular, was buoyed by the optimism surrounding the potential for peace and the rise in oil prices—Canada’s main export—making it one of the day’s better performers against the US Dollar.

Despite the CAD’s relative outperformance, the US Dollar held firm against most of its peers, including the Loonie. The USD’s resilience is underpinned by concerns about future US trade policies and the continued support of the Fed’s interest rate strategy. Trump is expected to announce reciprocal tariffs later today as part of his “tariff-for-tariff” policy, which has been a hallmark of his economic agenda. This potential escalation in trade tensions between the US and its trading partners adds an element of caution to the market, even as geopolitical tensions ease in other parts of the world. The looming threat of tariffs, coupled with the Fed's policy stance, suggests that the US Dollar could remain well-supported in the coming weeks.

At the same time, the outlook for the Canadian Dollar has been somewhat clouded by the dovish stance of the Bank of Canada (BoC). The BoC cut its key interest rate by 25 basis points to 3% last month in response to global economic uncertainty, with Governor Tiff Macklem emphasizing that concerns over trade tensions—particularly Trump’s tariff threats—were contributing to the decision. As a result, expectations remain high that the BoC could continue to reduce interest rates in the months ahead, which may keep downward pressure on the Canadian Dollar, particularly against a relatively strong US Dollar.

Technical Analysis

From a technical perspective, the USD/CAD pair has shown signs of weakness, particularly with the break below the critical 1.4300 support level. This level, which had previously acted as a robust support zone, has now been breached, signaling the potential for further downside pressure. A sustained period of trading below the 1.4300 level would likely accelerate the bearish momentum, opening the door to deeper declines.

The 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA), now sitting at 1.4331, has recently been broken to the downside, reinforcing the negative sentiment in the short term. This level now acts as newfound resistance, preventing any immediate upside moves. The 200-day SMA, at 1.3872, remains a crucial long-term support zone, and a retracement to this level could provide a more substantial buying opportunity for long-term traders.

Key technical indicators also support the bearish outlook. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands at 42.68, indicating that while there is bearish momentum, the pair is not yet in oversold territory, suggesting room for further downside. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) has dipped further into negative territory, confirming a continuation of the downside bias.

Looking ahead, should the price remain below the 1.4300 level, the immediate downside targets include the psychological 1.4200 handle, followed by a deeper pullback toward the 1.4000 mark. However, a recovery above 1.4300 would likely neutralize the short-term bearish pressure, potentially leading to a consolidation phase or even a modest rebound.

TRADE RECOMMENDATION

SELL USDCAD

ENTRY PRICE: 1.4290

STOP LOSS: 1.4410

TAKE PROFIT: 1.4000

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Warren Takunda

Commodity

Summary:

Gold prices continue their ascent, spurred by market participants seizing the opportunity to buy the dip.

BUY XAUUSD

Close Time

CLOSED

2920.00

Entry Price

2980.00

2900.00

2935.98 -3.28 -0.11%

172.7

Pips

Profit

2900.00

2937.27

Exit Price

2920.00

Entry Price

2980.00

Gold prices have surged once again, fueled by a robust wave of buying activity from market participants capitalizing on the dip. At the time of writing on Thursday, gold (XAU/USD) had climbed to $2,920, a significant rebound after a brief dip the previous day. This movement comes despite several macroeconomic and geopolitical headwinds, including concerns over persistent U.S. inflation and the potential for a peace deal between Ukraine and Russia, which has raised some uncertainty in the markets.

The surge in gold prices follows a favorable shift in investor sentiment, with traders disregarding U.S. January Consumer Price Index (CPI) data, which showed a hotter-than-expected inflation reading. Even with the U.S. Federal Reserve’s ongoing commitment to controlling inflation through monetary tightening, market participants seem increasingly convinced that gold remains a resilient safe-haven asset in these uncertain times.

Additionally, traders have largely brushed aside the potential geopolitical ramifications of a peace deal between U.S. President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin. The two leaders have reportedly had discussions outlining the framework for a peace agreement concerning the ongoing Ukraine conflict. While such developments could signal a potential easing of geopolitical tensions, they have not been enough to dampen gold’s bullish momentum, indicating that investors are prioritizing the metal’s safe-haven appeal in the face of broader uncertainties.

Gold’s rally has coincided with the release of January's U.S. CPI data, which showed an inflation rate that exceeded expectations. While this data initially spurred concerns about the Federal Reserve’s next steps, it also reinforced the notion that the central bank may keep interest rates elevated for a longer period to combat inflationary pressures. Despite the uptick in U.S. Treasury yields in response to the CPI data, gold prices have shown resilience, with the precious metal continuing to attract buying interest.

The bond market's reaction to the CPI report suggests that U.S. yields could continue to rise, signaling the Fed's readiness to maintain its hawkish stance. However, this could create a paradox of sorts: If yields rise while gold prices also increase, it may signal an increasing divergence between the two assets. Traditionally, higher yields would be seen as a negative for gold, as the metal does not offer a yield of its own, but this time, gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset seems to be overriding these historical trends.

Meanwhile, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's testimony before Congress has further fueled expectations of prolonged tight monetary policy. Powell reiterated the Fed’s commitment to managing inflation, which has led to a reassessment of market expectations for interest rate cuts in 2025. The CME FedWatch tool now shows a 64.3% probability that the Fed will keep rates unchanged through June 2025, up from 50.3% prior to the release of the January CPI data. This shift suggests that the Fed is prepared to maintain restrictive monetary policy for longer to curb inflation, a stance that could continue to support gold prices.

Gold’s safe-haven status has been particularly attractive as the geopolitical situation remains uncertain. While there is growing optimism regarding a potential peace deal between the U.S. and Russia, market sentiment remains cautious. The news of potential peace talks between the two leaders has caused some volatility in the currency markets, with the euro gaining against the U.S. dollar, which in turn has softened the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY). This weaker dollar has provided a supportive backdrop for gold, which is typically inversely correlated with the greenback.

As talks between Trump and Putin progress, markets will likely remain sensitive to any developments related to the Ukraine conflict. Any positive outcomes from these discussions could prompt risk-on sentiment, potentially leading to a decline in demand for gold. However, the path to peace remains fraught with uncertainty, and as long as geopolitical tensions persist, gold may continue to attract buying interest from investors seeking refuge from market volatility.

Technical Analysis

From a technical perspective, gold remains firmly within a bullish bias. Prices are showing strong support from the 50-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA), which is aiding the continuation of its upward trajectory. As of the latest data, gold prices are consolidating within a key buying zone between $2,900 and $2,907. Should prices manage to hold above the $2,907 resistance level, gold could be poised to test new highs and potentially set a new all-time record, surpassing its previous peak of $2,942 then $2,980.

A key level to watch for the coming days is the $2,918 to $2,920 range. If gold manages to consolidate above this zone, it would provide further confirmation that the bullish momentum is likely to continue. Market participants will also be closely watching for any signs of a breakout or reversal, as gold remains sensitive to changes in both macroeconomic conditions and geopolitical risks.

TRADE RECOMMENDATION

BUY GOLD

ENTRY PRICE: 2920

STOP LOSS: 2900

TAKE PROFIT: 2980

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Irregular Head and Shoulders Pattern on Daily Chart Signals Increased Short-Term Bearish Outlook

Fundamentals

Technical Analysis

Trading Recommendations

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Geopolitical and Trade Uncertainty Weighs on Market Sentiment

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The Correction Isn't Over – Seize the Dip for Profit

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USD/CAD Slips Below Key 1.4300 Level as Market Sentiment Turns Risk-On Amid Russia-Ukraine Truce Optimism

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Risk Disclosure