Natural Gas: Russian Gas Production and Exports Both Fall in August

Summary:

Analysts point out that the main reason for the decline in Gazprom's gas exports to non-CIS countries in the first eight months is related to the decrease in Russian gas supplies to Europe. Preliminary statistics released by Gazprom on September 1 show that the company produced 288.1 billion cubic meters of natural gas in the first eight months of this year, down 14.6% year-on-year. Its gas exports to non-CIS countries amounted to 82.2 billion cubic meters, down 49.1 billion cubic meters or about 37.4% compared to the same period last year.

SELL NAT.GAS

EXP

EXPIRED

9.160

Entry Price

8.940

9.340

3.492 -0.010 -0.29%

Pips

EXPIRED

8.940

8.952

Exit Price

9.160

Entry Price

9.340

Fundamentals

Preliminary statistics released by Gazprom on September 1 show that the company produced 288.1 billion cubic meters of natural gas in the first eight months of the year, down 14.6% year-on-year. Its gas exports to non-CIS countries amounted to 82.2 billion cubic meters, down 49.1 billion cubic meters or about 37.4% compared to the same period last year.

Analysts point out that the main reason for the decline in Russian gas exports to non-CIS countries in the first eight months is related to the decrease in Russian gas supplies to Europe.

Affected by the crisis in Ukraine, the EU plans to reduce Russian gas imports by about 100 billion cubic meters by the end of this year, a drop of nearly two-thirds. According to the International Energy Agency, the EU's gas imports from Russia will be 155 billion cubic meters in 2021, accounting for about 45% of the EU's total gas imports and 40% of its total consumption.

Natural Gas: Russian Gas Production and Exports Both Fall in August _1

The above data show that Russian gas production in 2021 will be 514.8 billion cubic meters, an increase of 62.2 billion cubic metres from 2020.

Technical Analysis

2.1 Natural Gas Weekly Chart

Natural Gas: Russian Gas Production and Exports Both Fall in August _2

It's necessary to focus on the range of 7.970~7.620 in the weekly chart, where prices are supported by the upward trend line since July 8, 2022.

2.2 Natural Gas Daily Chart

Natural Gas: Russian Gas Production and Exports Both Fall in August _3

Prices are supported by the upward trend line. The upper rail of the downtrend channel above since August 23, 2022, is holding down prices to the downside, and the range is 7.974~7.845.

2.3 Natural Gas Hourly Chart

Natural Gas: Russian Gas Production and Exports Both Fall in August _4

When prices are running near the upward trend line of the weekly chart, the trend of this wave is bearish and prices have a tendency to go down this trend line, for the reason that the upper shadow of the minor wave candlestick is on the downward trend line of the weekly chart. The range is 8~7.86.

Natural Gas: Russian Gas Production and Exports Both Fall in August _5

Focus on natural gas during the day, and short natural gas at highs.

Entry Price: 9.160;

Take Profit: 8.940;

Stop Loss: 9.34.

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Thomas

Summary:

Although the short-term market sentiment of Ethereum tends to be negative, the decline continuity in recent days is insufficient. We do not rule out the possibility of a further rebound.

BUY ETH-USDT

Close Time

CLOSED

1550.00

Entry Price

1700.00

1450.00

2631.56 -31.08 -1.17%

859.3

Pips

Profit

1450.00

1635.93

Exit Price

1550.00

Entry Price

1700.00

Fundamentals

As the key data that could determine the Fed's policy, non-farm payrolls approaches, and markets are trading with more caution. Although the market expects that the labor market is still strong, which may support the Fed to raise interest rates further, the strong dollar continues to put pressure on cryptocurrencies.

However, the market has already digested the optimistic non-farm payrolls expectations, and the possibility of "buying expectations and selling facts" cannot be ruled out. Once the non-farm payrolls data is lower than expected, it may induce people to buy at lows in the crypto market and then trigger a volatile rebound.

Technical Analysis

ETHUSDT: Try to Buy at Lows as the Short Continuity Bias to Weak_1

从日图看，ETHUSDT近期延续震荡破位下跌，不过短线持稳徘徊于1422上方，没有再破前低，后市倾向于进一步向上反弹修正。

ETHUSDT: Try to Buy at Lows as the Short Continuity Bias to Weak_2

In the 1H chart, ETHUSDT tends to be volatile in the short term, the low point is gradually rising, and it recovers quickly every time it goes down. The decline continuity is insufficient, and we do not rule out the possibility of a further rebound. The pressure near 1700 will be tested above.

It is recommended to bet on the rally. You can go long with small positions after the price rebounds near 1550 and stabilizes. The target can be set near the upper-pressure level of 1700, and the stop loss can be set below 1475.

Trading Recommendations

Trading Direction: Long

Entry Price: 1550

Target Price: 1700

Stop Loss: 1,450

Support: 1550/1420

Resistance: 1700/1610

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Jason

Summary:

After the unilateral decline, the EUR is currently in a slight retracement, and stays in a volatile range. The upcoming Non-Farm Payrolls may break this trend.

SELL EURUSD

Close Time

CLOSED

1.00199

Entry Price

0.99107

1.00842

1.03718 +0.00114 +0.11%

109.2

Pips

Profit

0.99107

0.99096

Exit Price

1.00199

Entry Price

1.00842

Fundamentals

The EUR fell unilaterally by more than 140 points on Thursday, and once fell to 0.99110 during the session, close to the low on August 23rd, and fell 1.06% at the close. The reason for the depreciation is the heating of market expectations for the Fed to raise interest rates in September due to the promising U.S. economic data. In addition, the continuous development of the energy crisis also weakens the EUR.

European countries are in full swing to reserve natural gas for the winter this year. However, due to the sharp plunge in natural gas from Russia, the energy supply situation in Europe is tight. Consequently, Switzerland, which mainly relied on Germany and France for power supply in the previous winter, was also affected. In addition, the construction of its natural gas storage was underdeveloped, and the risk of power shortage in Switzerland will be significant.

Faced with maintenance disruptions to Nord Stream 1 this week, there is growing expectation in Europe that the pipelines will be used as a means of forcing EU sanctions. Moreover, Germany is even bracing for continued disruption from more maintenance on the Nord Stream gas pipeline in mid-October.

Bonomi, President of the General Confederation of Italian Industry, Italy's largest chamber of commerce organization, told the media that if Russia completely stops its gas supply, Italy will have a natural gas gap of 4 billion cubic meters, which could not be covered even if Italy's natural gas reserves reach 90% of the maximum reserves set by the government. Eventually, if this gas gap is fully applied to the industrial sector, almost one-fifth of Italian industrial production will cease.

The U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls for August will be released today, and it is one of the key data to guide the Fed policymakers' meeting in September. It is expected that the market will have a new round of interest rate hike expectations, which will impact the EUR significantly.

Technical Analysis

Referring to the 4-hour chart, the EUR, which was originally at the top of the ascending channel, returned to the bottom of the channel and the bottom of the shock range of 1.00172--0.99107 after a round of decline yesterday. After being supported by the two, it retraced slightly. Besides, it is the key support that supports the EUR frequently in the recent period. If it falls below this line, the EUR will open a new round of downward space and go straight to 0.98309. At present, the EUR is still in a volatile situation, and the upcoming Non-Farm Payrolls may help break this shock. For indicators, Stoch and DMI both show that the EUR is currently in an appreciating trend, while the Ichimoku Kinko Hyo shows that the EUR is in a downward trend, but there are signs of a shift to a rising trend. Considering that Non-Farm Payrolls may be bullish for the USD, the EUR is weak, and the market is digesting the expectations for the ECB to raise interest rates, so it is recommended to keep going short after the EUR rebounds.

EURUSD: Non-Farm Payrolls May Induce a New Round of Decline in EUR_1

Trading Recommendations

Trading direction: Short

Entry price: 1.00199

Target price: 0.99107

Stop loss: 1.00842

Support: 0.99521/0.99107/0.98309

Resistance: 1.0000/1.00410/1.00769

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Jason

Summary:

The Non-Farm Payrolls may slow down, but the degree of slowdown is not expected to be enough to dispel expectations of aggressive interest rate hikes by the Fed, which may be bullish for the USD.

BUY USDX

Close Time

CLOSED

109.187

Entry Price

110.000

108.400

107.820 +0.100 +0.09%

40.1

Pips

Profit

108.400

109.588

Exit Price

109.187

Entry Price

110.000

Fundamentals

The USD appreciated almost unilaterally on Thursday, hitting a 20-year high of 109.977 again during the session, before closing with 0.87% up. Additionally, the number of jobless claims reported yesterday fell to a two-month low, while layoffs fell in August. Moreover, the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) survey showed that manufacturing employment rebounded significantly in August after three months of contracting. Besides, businesses continued to hire at a strong pace in August, with few signs of layoffs, hiring freezes, or headcount reductions through attrition. It exhibits a very competitive labor market compared to a similar scenario in 2021 with a fast-moving business cycle, making companies reluctant to lay off workers easily. Generally, it reinforces the view that demand for workers is strong.

It's not surprising that the USD is hitting new highs but just a matter of time since the Jackson Hole Global Banking Conference. More surprisingly, the USD could run with such a trend before the Non-Farm Payrolls announcement. Supported by solid economic data, market expectations for the Fed to raise interest rates by 75 basis points for the third consecutive time at the September meeting are rising, and the Fed funds rate futures market showed in the ending session that the possibility of a 75-basis-point rate hike in September was about 77.1%.

The U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls for August will be announced today, with the current market expectations for this ranging from 75,000 to 452,000. The lacking concentration of market expectations means a possible increase in volatility. However, mainstream expectations are that employment will slow, with 298,000 new jobs added. Any signs of a sharp slowdown in job growth, coupled with a deeper slowdown in the U.S. Labor Department's average hourly earnings data, could help push market expectations for turning to a 50-basis-point Fed rate hike. However, the question now is how much does the labor market need to slow to satisfy the Fed? Clearly, as of the last Non-Farm Payrolls, the three-month Non-Farm Payrolls average was 437,000, much higher than the 300,000 emphasized by Biden. It means that if the result of the Non-Farm Payrolls is not over dreadful, the Fed may conclude that aggressive rate hikes are still necessary for driving a labor market slowdown, which will also heat the market's expectations again for the Fed to raise interest rates by 75 basis points in September.

Furthermore, with the labor force participation rate still hot, even a slowdown in overall payroll growth from July's highs could lead to a drop in the unemployment rate. That means the U.S. unemployment rate could hit its lowest level in half a century in August, which also means more upward pressure on wages.

The Non-Farm Payrolls is one of the key data guiding the Fed policymakers' meeting in September. At present, it will be more likely to be bullish for the USD. Even after hitting new highs, the USD has still room to extend further as it is supported by a slowing global economy, especially the European energy crisis.

Technical Analysis

Referring to the 4-hour chart, the USD has broken through the 109.187--108.564 shock range and is currently hovering at the top of the upward channel. Due to the approaching Non-Farm Payrolls, the market is thinly traded, and the USD is expected for a horizontal price movement before the Non-Farm Payrolls. Besides, the Non-Farm Payrolls will create a new trend for USD, breaking through the top barrier of the channel or falling back from high. Considering that the Non-Farm Payrolls is at a critical time and the market's expectations for it are extensive, there has been a round of rising market expectations yesterday, which may lead to short-term fluctuations in the USD shortly after the release of the Non-Farm Payrolls data. It means that the market is judging whether the data is enough to support the Fed to raise interest rates by 75 basis points in September. During this gap, the USD may have a round of decline, and then the final direction will be decided according to the results. It is expected that the USD will first depreciate and then rise during the Non-Farm Payrolls period.

USDX: Non-farm Payrolls May Provide Upside Support for USD_1

Trading Recommendations

Trading direction: Long

Entry price: 109.187

Target price: 110.00

Stop loss: 108.400

Support: 109.187/108.564/108.081

Resistance: 109.668/110.00/110.50

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Winkelmann

Summary:

The non-farm payrolls for August will be released. The market expects that the data will show a strong job market and prompt the Fed to raise interest rates sharply by 75 basis points in September. The short-term gold price is still facing greater downward pressure. However, optimistic expectations of non-farm payrolls have been partially priced in, gold has been technically oversold, and there is also the need for a rebound. It is necessary to make preparations around 1680.

BUY XAUUSD

EXP

EXPIRED

1682.00

Entry Price

1710.00

1665.00

2887.83 -9.76 -0.34%

Pips

EXPIRED

1665.00

1729.66

Exit Price

1682.00

Entry Price

1710.00

Fundamentals

U.S. jobless claims fell to their lowest level in two months last week and layoffs fell in August, as labor market resilience continued to dispel fears of a recession. The ISM manufacturing PMI data was also better than market expectations, showing that the U.S. economy continued to expand, providing more room for the Fed to aggressively raise interest rates.

The non-farm payrolls for August will be released, which will be one of the key data to guide the Fed policymakers' meeting in September. Recent data has also boosted expectations of optimistic non-farm payrolls and the market expects employment data to remain strong, with economists polled by Reuters forecasting a gain of 300,000 jobs in August. With the labor force participation rate still hot, even if overall job growth slows from July's high, the unemployment rate could fall to its lowest level in half a century. The strong non-farm payrolls report means that the Fed must continue aggressively raising rates to slow down the labor market, helping the dollar continue to strengthen.

In addition to the Fed, the European Central Bank (ECB) is also desperately catching up with the Fed under high inflation pressure, and more ECB officials are calling for a large-scale interest rate hike to combat inflation that may exceed 10% in the next few months. Now, the Fed and the ECB are expected to raise interest rates by 75 basis points in September, and other major global central banks, such as the Bank of England, the Reserve Bank of Australia, and the Bank of Canada, are also expected to raise interest rates. This will increase the opportunity cost of holding unyielding gold and continue to weigh on gold prices. Bulls can only hope for worsening non-farm payroll data and a continued inflation decline; until then, gold is still biased to be bearish.

However, it should be noted that the current gold price has partially priced in the expectation of positive non-farm payroll performance. If the non-farm payroll data is not exceptionally good, you need to be wary of the possibility of a short-term volatile rebound or a bottoming out in the intraday gold price.

Technical Analysis

XAUUSD: Prepare for the August Non-Farm Payrolls_1

In the daily chart, the short-term bears of XAUUSD are strong, the indicator RSI continues to extend to the oversold area, the decline is expected to further extend to the neckline support level of 1680, and even the possibility of breaking below 1680 is not ruled out.

XAUUSD: Prepare for the August Non-Farm Payrolls_2

In the 4H chart, XAUUSD maintains a downward trend, the short-term gold price is close to the key support near 1680, and the indicator RSI has fallen to the oversold area. The possibility of a volatile rebound and retracement cannot be ruled out in the following trading sessions.

It is recommended to try to go long with small positions when the price falls to 1680. The target can be set near the upper-pressure level of 1710, and the stop loss can be set below 1680.

Trading Recommendations

Trading Direction: Long

Entry Price: 1682.0

Target Price: 1710.0

Stop Loss: 1665.0

Support: 1671/1680

Resistance: 1710/1700

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Eva Chen

Summary:

USDCAD rose for the third consecutive day and broke above the 1.3200 level, gaining 0.56% on the day. The recent upward movement of the USDCAD lows suggests that the pair is again motivated to break above the July high of 1.3220, and a break above 1.3220 in a few trading days could continue the uptrend in USDCAD. However, an overbought RSI in the near term may temporarily limit the upside range of USDCAD.

SELL USDCAD

Close Time

CLOSED

1.31800

Entry Price

1.28500

1.34000

1.43097 +0.00280 +0.20%

59.0

Pips

Profit

1.28500

1.31210

Exit Price

1.31800

Entry Price

1.34000

Fundamentals

On Thursday, the USDCAD rose strongly for the third consecutive session and tested its highest level since July 14 during the New York session. The pair's strong upward momentum is being driven by a combination of factors, which has bulls waiting for a break above the previous high at the 1.3223 level.

The current risk sentiment in the market is that investors remain concerned about a further downturn in the global economy, coupled with the spread of the localized pandemic in China increasing the authorities' adoption of restrictive measures to weaken energy demand, which in turn has dragged crude oil prices to a week and a half low and weakened the CAD linked to crude oil. In addition, potentially bullish sentiment around the USD also helped push the USDCAD higher.

Meanwhile, firm market expectations that the Fed will stick to its aggressive policy continue to support further gains in U.S. Treasury yields. Indeed, the 2-year U.S. bond yield, which is highly sensitive to expectations of a rate hike, rose to its highest level in 15 years.

On top of that, the USD continues to benefit from widespread risk aversion. The fundamental backdrop seems to be firmly tilted in favor of the USD bulls and supports the prospect of further appreciation of the USDCAD.

Investors will now continue to look forward to important U.S. economic data releases, including Friday's U.S. August non-farm payrolls report. This, along with U.S. bond yields and risk sentiment, will affect the USD and provide fresh impetus to the USDCAD pair. Traders may also take cues from oil price developments to take advantage of short-term opportunities.

USDCAD: Despite Bullish Sentiment Prevails, Beware of Profit-Taking By Bulls_1

Technical Analysis

Over the last three trading days, the USDCAD has continued to move higher and is now above the 1.3200 integer mark, within reach of the previous highs.

On the short-term charts, the USD's strong move higher has not weakened and the broader trend strength signals (daily and weekly) remain consistent with the intraday oscillation signals. At least in the short term, the risk appetite is more inclined toward the USD.

A series of higher lows for the pair suggests that bulls have a strong interest in pushing the pair back to the July highs at 1.3223, with a bullish breakout likely to occur at any time within a few trading days. However, an overbought Relative Strength Index in the near term could temporarily limit the upside of the pair.

Although the bulls have the upper hand and are getting closer to the supply area at the 1.3223 level, it is necessary to beware of profit-taking by the bulls. It is recommended to go short at highs instead of chasing the bullish.

Trading Recommendations

Trading Direction: Short

Entry Price: 1.3180

Target Price: 1.2850

Stop Loss: 1.3400

Valid Until: 2022-09-15 20:00:00

Support: 1.3075, 1.3050

Resistance: 1.3200, 1.3330

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Eva Chen

Summary:

The latest U.S. jobs report will be released this Friday, and it will test the view that the economy is sound. The business survey shows some weakness in job growth, but no significant change yet, as the "summer effect" may push down the employment data, thus significantly cutting the possibility of a 75 basis point rate hike by the Fed this month.

BUY XAUUSD

Close Time

CLOSED

1685.00

Entry Price

1780.00

1657.00

2887.83 -9.76 -0.34%

11.8

Pips

Profit

1657.00

1686.18

Exit Price

1685.00

Entry Price

1780.00

Fundamentals

A heated debate about the strength of the U.S. economy is underway. Pessimists cite a host of leading indicators such as new business orders, consumer confidence, housing data, and the yield curve, all of which suggest a sharp slowdown in economic activity is just around the corner.

However, optimists such as Fed Chairman Jerome Powell noted that the labor market is essentially at full employment and argued that the economy is still in good shape. It is hard to have a recession when the unemployment rate is at its lowest level in five years.

The problem with this logic is that employment is a lagging indicator. When investors look at employment data, they are looking back in time. The labor market always looks to be performing very strongly until a recession hits. The other problem is that once you dig deeper into the reasons behind it, the number of jobs is not as strong.

Nonfarm payrolls come from the "establishment" survey, while the unemployment rate is from the "household" survey. Recently there has been a huge divergence between the two types of surveys.

For example, the nonfarm payroll number represents an increase of nearly 2 million jobs in the U.S. economy since March of this year, while the household survey shows no job growth at all. A key difference is that people with two jobs are double-counted twice in the nonfarm payrolls, but only once in the household survey.

So the "significant" job growth of recent months may simply be people taking another job as they struggle to make ends meet.

Obviously, investors are most interested in the final employment numbers for non-farm payrolls. As for the risks, the business survey suggests that disappointment is more likely than positive surprise in this report. The S&P Global Purchasing Managers' Index shows the slowest job growth in nearly a year, as companies facing uncertain demand and rising costs delay replacing employees who voluntarily leave.

Finally, a critical key factor may push down the August nonfarm payroll data. That is the often overlooked "summer effect", which makes the monthly non-farm payrolls report the lowest employment growth month in years. The reason is that every year August is the most concentrated month for Americans to travel and spend on vacation, and also the month when they are least likely to look for work. Looking at last month's report card, where employment numbers were significantly higher than (twice) expected, job growth may be nearing its peak. Combined with all the factors we have mentioned, it may have contributed to the August non-farm payrolls growth falling short of the previous or expected value thus significantly cutting the possibility of a 75 basis point Fed rate hike in September.

XAUUSD: "Summer Effect" May Push Down August Non-Farm Payrolls Data, Thus Significantly Cutting Possibility of 75 BPS Fed Rate Hike in September_1

Technical Analysis

Gold prices have moved lower for the sixth consecutive session, keeping the upside blocked and running back down. And prices are running along the lower Bollinger Bands adding further bearish signals. In addition, the technical indicators are also re-enforcing their short signals and the short-term moving averages are still putting pressure on their rebound. As the focus turns to the U.S. jobs report, a broader strengthening of the USD could coincide with a fall in gold below $1680 to indicate that the bears are looking to maintain absolute control. However, the downside channel is also becoming quite congested as the key prior support at the $1,680 level gets closer, as bears could take profits at any time. It is recommended to buy the dips or wait and see, instead of chasing shorting.

Trading Recommendations

Trading Direction: Long

Entry Price: 1685

Targe Price: 1780

Stop Loss: 1657

Valid Until: 2022-09-15 20:00:00

Support: 1680, 1675

Resistance: 1710, 1725, 1735, 1765

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Natural Gas: Russian Gas Production and Exports Both Fall in August

Fundamentals

Technical Analysis

ETHUSDT: Try to Buy at Lows as the Short Continuity Bias to Weak

Fundamentals

Technical Analysis

Trading Recommendations

Non-Farm Payrolls May Induce a New Round of Decline in EUR

Fundamentals

Technical Analysis

Trading Recommendations

Non-farm Payrolls May Provide Upside Support for USD

Fundamentals

Technical Analysis

Trading Recommendations

Prepare for the August Non-Farm Payrolls

Fundamentals

Technical Analysis

Trading Recommendations

Despite Bullish Sentiment Prevails, Beware of Profit-Taking By Bulls

Fundamentals

Technical Analysis

Trading Recommendations

"Summer Effect" May Push Down August Non-Farm Payrolls Data, Thus Significantly Cutting Possibility of 75 BPS Fed Rate Hike in September

Fundamentals

Technical Analysis

Trading Recommendations

Risk Disclosure