Nickel Price Remain Weak, Providing Opportunities for Going Both Long and Short

Commodity

Summary:

The nickel price is still fluctuating due to the macroeconomic downward pressure and the gap between supply and demand, the market sentiment is wavering, and the weak and fluctuating pattern of nickel price remains unchanged.

BUY NICKEL

Close Time

CLOSED

21780.000

Entry Price

22200.000

21350.000

15640.980 +36.250 +0.23%

17752.5

Pips

Profit

21350.000

21957.525

Exit Price

21780.000

Entry Price

22200.000

Fundamentals

Macroscopically, global inflation is still high, many central banks led by the Federal Reserve are actively raising interest rates, and the US Dollar Index continues to strengthen, exerting greater pressure on the metal sector. In addition, under the background that most central banks in the world keep raising interest rates, there is a greater possibility of a global economic recession. China's major consumer areas of home appliances are dragged down by the property cycle, and the demand for nickel for stainless steel is weak.

However, with the rapid development of the global new energy automobile industry, the nickel demand growth rate has increased rapidly. The supply side was affected by the London Metal Exchange (LME) sanctions on Russian metals, and the market was worried about the restrictions on Russian nickel exports. It was also reported that Indonesia might levy an export tax on nickel ores. As the global nickel inventory is at a historical level as a whole, the supply may be slightly tight in the short term, which will support the nickel price to a certain extent.

In the short term, nickel price is still fluctuating repeatedly due to the macroeconomic downward pressure and the gap between supply and demand. The market sentiment is uncertain and it is difficult to have a clear trend.

Technical Analysis

NICKEL: Nickel Price Remain Weak, Providing Opportunities for Going Both Long and Short_1

In the 4H timeframe, NICKEL has generally maintained broad-band oscillation for the past three months, and maintained a weak oscillation pattern in the short term, showing a triangular convergence pattern, with resistance from the top and support from the bottom. Before breaking through and choosing any direction, there is an opportunity for going both long and short.

It is recommended to go long at the highs and go short at the lows, namely go long when the price goes down to near the support of the upward trend line of 21700, with the short-term target set near the resistance line of 22200 and the stop loss set below 21500.

Trading Recommendations

Trading direction: Long

Entry price: 21780

Target price: 22200

Stop loss: 21350

Support: 21500/21000

Resistance: 22200/22700

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Jason

Summary:

For now, it is still too early to try to weaken the dollar, which will likely continue to rise, meaning the euro remains in a downtrend overall. However, there is a risk of a retracement in the short term.

BUY EURUSD

EXP

EXPIRED

0.97550

Entry Price

0.98283

0.97186

1.04628 -0.00284 -0.27%

Pips

EXPIRED

0.97186

0.97697

Exit Price

0.97550

Entry Price

0.98283

Fundamentals

Due to the Fed's Beige Book and official speeches, the market once again recognized this: with the current inflationary pressure, the Fed will not be so fast to slow down interest rate hikes. As a result, the dollar rose, putting pressure on the euro, which almost gave back its gains since Monday and closed with a drop of 0.82%.

Judging from the manner of recent speeches by ECB officials, what is urgently needed is high inflation. As for the issue of economic recession, the ECB is ready for it. Data shows that the average probability of the eurozone falling into recession within a year is 70%. In addition, the eurozone is also facing a cost-of-living crisis, with most of the price pressure coming from energy costs. As winter approaches, the cost of living in the eurozone will worsen or deteriorate significantly.

For now, it is still too early to try to weaken the dollar, which will likely continue to rise until core inflation momentum slows and the Fed shifts to a less hawkish stance; neither is likely in the short term. This also means that the euro will remain on a decline in the short term.

However, be wary that the euro is at risk of retracing in the short term.

Technical Analysis

In the 4H chart, the euro is currently hovering near the top of the oscillation range 0.96764 - 0.97740. The above resistance is the 38.2% Fibonacci Retracements (0.98283). Attention needs to be paid to whether the euro stands stable above this line, as once it does, the euro may restart the retracement again. As for indicators, Stoch, DMI, and Ichimoku all show that the euro will rise in the short term, and the +DI in the DMI is at 15.8 and moving to the lower side; in the Ichimoku, the baseline and the conversion line cross and move divergently, showing that the euro may rise after a small decline. EURUSD: Euro May Face Retracement in Short Term, Could Try Going Long_1

EURUSD: Euro May Face Retracement in Short Term, Could Try Going Long_1

Trading Recommendations

Trading direction: Long

Entry price: 0.97550

Target price: 0.98283

Stop loss: 0.97186

Support: 0.97550/0.97134/0.96764

Resistance: 0.98000/0.98283/0.98518

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Jason

Summary:

The Beige Book and Fed officials' speeches have once again made the market realize that with the current inflationary pressures, the Fed is not that quick to slow down rate hikes. Market expectations for the terminal rate reached a high of around 4.977%.

SELL USDX

Close Time

CLOSED

112.995

Entry Price

112.372

113.475

107.500 +0.290 +0.27%

48.0

Pips

Loss

112.372

113.486

Exit Price

112.995

Entry Price

113.475

Fundamentals

The USD bottomed out from a two-week low on Wednesday as the 10-year US bond yield rose to a 14-year high to drive the greenback stronger, fully recovering Monday's decline brought about by new UK Chancellor of the Exchequer Jeremy Hunt's overturning of PM Truss's economic plan to close 0.81% higher.

There are several issues requiring our attention from the Fed's Beige Book released yesterday.

Sales remained subdued due to limited inventories, higher auto prices and rising interest rates. With a 40% weighting in core goods, autos undoubtedly have the most significant impact and are a major factor in commodity inflation, this implies a possible slowdown in core commodity inflation.

Travel and tourism activity grew strongly, driven by continued strength in leisure activity and a rebound in business travel; this implies increased inflationary pressure on core services such as airfares and leisure accommodation, which have repeatedly 'topped' the CPI sub-component.

Rising mortgage rates and higher house prices further weakened single-family housing starts and sales, pushing up flat rentals and rents, which have generally remained high. The housing market accounts for one-third of the weight of core inflation, and the ongoing rate hikes by the Federal Reserve have led to lending rates also climbing, which could cause a group of potential home buyers to turn to renting, thereby maintaining or even raising prices in the rental market; this means that core inflation has a long way to go before slowing down.

The Beige Book also shows that overall labour market conditions remain tight, wage growth remains the norm, and it is expected to continue to increase. Price growth remains high, and expectations for price increases are generally slowing as we look ahead.

Overall, the Beige Book shows no shortage of inflationary pressures, enough for the market to realise that with current inflationary pressures, the Fed is not that quick to slow down rate hikes.

In addition, the 10-year US bond yield rose 12.7 basis points to 4.13% at one end, the highest since June 2008. Policy-sensitive 2-year US bond yields rose 12 basis points intraday to 4.55%, the highest level since August 2007.

Meanwhile, Federal Reserve officials Evans, Bullard and Kashkari also spoke yesterday. Evans said the Fed was mindful of the impact of its actions on the economy, but that fighting inflation remained the primary job and that inflation risks remained skewed to the upside. The policy rate is more appropriately between 4.5% and 4.75% next year. Bullard said the Fed may choose to bring forward the tightening in 2023 to 2022 and that the Fed should not react to a fall in the stock market. Kashkari, on the other hand, believes that headline inflation may have peaked but has yet to see evidence of a top in core inflation. The risk of under-raising rates is greater than the risk of over-raising rates. Core inflation needs to be seen to stabilise before the Fed is likely to pause in raising rates sometime next year.

All of the above has led to a hawkish shift in market expectations for the Fed's interest rate trajectory, with expectations for the terminal rate reaching a high of around 4.977%. The market is now pricing in a 91% probability of a 75 basis point hike in November, a 12% probability of a 100 basis point hike and a 75% probability of a 75 basis point hike in December.

Technical Analysis

In the 4-hour chart, the dollar is temporarily blocked by 112.906, a line that is considered short-term solid resistance and had supported the dollar on several occasions last week. The critical support below is the 50.0% golden ratio (112.372); this line is exceptionally crucial, once it holds below this line, the dollar will have the conditions for a deep retracement, the first two trading days, although there is a drop below this line, but did not hold below this line, can only be considered a false break. The key resistance above the 13-day high, that is, the 38.2% golden ratio (113.943), breakthrough this line again to refresh the 20-year high is just around the corner. Indicators, Stoch, DMI and a flat sheet of Ichimoku show that the dollar is currently in a downtrend, taking into account the position of +DI in the DMI (25.4) and a flat sheet of Ichimoku, the turnaround line through the benchmark line, and the two trends are entirely divergent, coupled with yesterday's surge, so you can try to short the dollar to catch the chance brought by the pullback. USDX: USD Regains Support From Rate Hike Expectations, Short-Term Risk of Pullback_1

USDX: USD Regains Support From Rate Hike Expectations, Short-Term Risk of Pullback_1

Trading Recommendation

Trading direction: short

Entry price: 112.995

Target price: 112.372

Stop loss: 113.475

Support: 112.605, 112.372, 111.853

Resistance: 112.906, 113.500, 113.943

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Warren Takunda

Traders' Opinions

Summary:

The pair is still trending upward, but the current level appears to be a good resistance level. Taking a short trade will be done patiently after the breakout. Waiting for a clean escape from that range to look for opportunites to short this pair.

SELL EURNZD

Close Time

CLOSED

1.72000

Entry Price

1.68000

1.75000

1.84011 +0.00460 +0.25%

78.7

Pips

Profit

1.68000

1.71213

Exit Price

1.72000

Entry Price

1.75000

EURNZD:Could This Be The End Of The Uptrend_1

EURNZD is still trending upward, but the current level appears to be a good resistance level and its also the upper band of the channel it has been confined it , will be expecting a bounce from this confluence zone Patiently waiting for any reversal signs before taking a position.

EURNZD:Could This Be The End Of The Uptrend_2

As of the 4 hour chart, EURNZD broke the longterm trendline that had been acting as support since August and is moving downward. The price is expected to move back to its daily support zone of 1.700. It will be bullish, however, if the price rises above the range.

TRADE RECOMMENDATION

SELL EURNZD

ENTRY PRICE :1.7200

STOP LOSS : 1.7500

TAKE PROFIT :1.6800

EXP : 30 OCTOBER

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Winkelmann

Commodity

Summary:

Under an unfavorable macro environment, copper demand may become weaker, so copper prices are overall bearish.

SELL COPPER

Close Time

CLOSED

7470.000

Entry Price

7250.000

7725.000

9227.100 -49.900 -0.54%

25500.0

Pips

Loss

7250.000

7729.205

Exit Price

7470.000

Entry Price

7725.000

Fundamentals

The U.S. September CPI again exceeded expectations. The core CPI recorded 6.6%, a new high since August 1982. It seems that high inflation has become entrenched. The Fed's efforts to keep raising interest rates seem to have had little effect. And as the labor market remains strong and wages are also growing steadily, the Fed has reasons to continue to maintain an aggressive tightening policy. Under this hawkish stance, the dollar index continues to climb. As a representative of commodities, dollar-denominated copper is still under huge bearish pressure.

At the same time, most central banks are in a cycle of interest rate hikes, which has undermined the financing environment and increased the risk of a global recession. This in turn could weaken consumer demand for the commodity copper. Although the global copper inventory is still low, copper demand may be hit by the potential spread of the pandemic in winter in the northern hemisphere.

Overall, the copper demand is expected to decline due to the economic downturn, especially in China's real estate industry which remains weak overall despite some signs of stabilization. Copper consumption in the real estate chain including home appliances will continue to remain weak. Therefore, copper prices may start a new round of downtrends.

Technical Analysis

COPPER: Copper Prices May Start a New Downtrend on Weaker Demand Expectations_1

In the 4-hour chart, COPPER overall is swinging widely to the downside as suppressed by the trend line above. It has fallen below the previous weak consolidating range between 7475 and 7620. The bearish trend has been further solidified. It is expected to again test the September lows near 7220 in the coming sessions. In the short term, we will wait for shorting opportunities after full adjustment and a rebound to confirm the above pressure.

It is mainly recommended to go short at highs. We can create short positions after the price rebounds to around 7475 and stabilizes. The short-term target can be located near the support level of 7220, and the stop loss can be set above 7675.

Trading Recommendations

Trading direction: Short

Entry price: 7470

Target price: 7250

Stop loss: 7725

Support: 7350/7220

Resistance: 7475/7620

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Winkelmann

Russia-Ukraine Conflict

Commodity

Summary:

The expectations of a significant Fed rate hike continue to rise, and U.S. Treasury Securities yields continue to soar, posing an obvious suppression on the gold price. There is still the possibility of further decline in the short term.

SELL XAUUSD

Close Time

CLOSED

1638.00

Entry Price

1605.00

1662.00

2757.84 -12.96 -0.47%

240.0

Pips

Loss

1605.00

1662.10

Exit Price

1638.00

Entry Price

1662.00

Fundamentals

Recently, the conflict between Russia and Ukraine continued to escalate. Putin announced that the four regions including Kherson that joined Russia through a referendum had entered a "state of war", and the battle of Kherson was imminent. In addition, interest rate hikes by central banks have deepened fears of a global recession, with the Federal Reserve's Beige Book saying that companies are more pessimistic about the economic outlook, providing some opportunities for gold prices to rebound.

However, the USD and gold price correlation is relatively strong. The overall situation remains that the USD is stronger than the gold price. As long as inflation does not cool down quickly, the Fed may raise interest rates further and push up the USD and U.S. Treasury Securities, posing an obvious suppression on the gold price. Meanwhile, the latest CPI data released by the UK, the eurozone, Canada, and other countries remains high, reinforcing the expectation that central banks in these countries and regions will raise interest rates significantly in the future. It is difficult for gold prices to continue to perform well in such an environment.

Technical Analysis

XAUUSD: Gold Price Develops Towards 1600 with Heated Rate Hike Expectations_1

In the 1D timeframe, The XAUUSD continued its recent downward trend and has successively lost 1660 and 1640. The bearish signal has been further strengthened. The short-term bias is to test the support near 1620, and will even further fall to near 1600.

XAUUSD: Gold Price Develops Towards 1600 with Heated Rate Hike Expectations_2

In the 4H timeframe, the short-term gold price was once close to 1620. The indicator RSI entered the oversold zone and the price quickly rebounded to above 1630. However, the overall downward trend remained intact. The short-term rebound space was limited. Patience is needed to wait for the opportunity to go short after the complete adjustment, and attention should be paid to the resistance near 1640 above. If the rebound is confirmed but doesn't break the resistance, the gold price will continue its downward trend under pressure.

It is recommended to go short at the highs, namely to go short with small positions when the price rebounds to near 1640, with the target set near the lower integer level of 1600 and the stop loss above 1660.

Trading Recommendations

Trading direction: Short

Entry price: 1638.0

Target price: 1605.0

Stop loss: 1662.0

Support: 1620/1600

Resistance: 1660/1640

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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King Ten

Forex

Summary:

The euro area has been struggling between bull and bear markets recently. The early bearish fundamentals have been digested, and there is no better news. Perhaps Wall Street's target temporarily turned to a more exciting GBP, and the EUR is waiting for new stimulation to become more volatile.

SELL EURUSD

Close Time

CLOSED

0.98000

Entry Price

0.94000

1.00000

1.04628 -0.00284 -0.27%

28.4

Pips

Profit

0.94000

0.97716

Exit Price

0.98000

Entry Price

1.00000

Fundamentals

The core CPI of the eurozone came in at 6% YoY in September, compared to the expected 6.1%, and the previous 6.1%.

The EUR has recently been stable at around 0.97 to 0.99. In the short term, the market digests the bearish factors, but there is also a lack of bullish catalysts. Besides, the EUR may continue to fluctuate in this range for some time. The ECB will hold a meeting on October 27th, which will no doubt be a hawkish meeting, with a rate hike of 75 bps, and a discussion about balance sheet shrinkage starting from March 2023. It will support the EUR. But now the biggest uncertainty is the war, as Putin held a national security council meeting yesterday, declaring a state of war in four regions in eastern Ukraine. If Russia takes advantage of the winter to escalate the war further, the EUR could fall below 0.95 against the dollar.

Technical Analysis

Referring to the daily chart, EURUSD shows a clear bearish trend currently with a complete descending channel. Currently, it locates at the upper area of the channel. It is recommended to go short at highs.

Trading Recommendations

Trading direction: Short

Entry price: 0.98000

Target price: 0.94000

Stop loss: 1.00000

Support: 0.95000/0.94000

Resistance: 0.99000/1.00000

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Data

Nickel Price Remain Weak, Providing Opportunities for Going Both Long and Short

Fundamentals

Technical Analysis

Trading Recommendations

Euro May Face Retracement in Short Term, Could Try Going Long

Fundamentals

Technical Analysis

Trading Recommendations

USD Regains Support From Rate Hike Expectations, Short-Term Risk of Pullback

Fundamentals

Technical Analysis

Trading Recommendation

Could This Be The End Of The Uptrend

TRADE RECOMMENDATION

Copper Prices May Start a New Downtrend on Weaker Demand Expectations

Fundamentals

Technical Analysis

Trading Recommendations

Gold Price Develops Towards 1600 with Heated Rate Hike Expectations

Fundamentals

Technical Analysis

Trading Recommendations

Short-Term Volatility Eases, Waiting for New Stimulus

Fundamentals

Technical Analysis

Trading Recommendations

Risk Disclosure