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NZD/USD Faces Downward Pressure Amid Fresh Tariff Threats and Dovish RBNZ Expectations
Summary:
The NZD/USD currency pair remains under significant downward pressure for the second consecutive day, trading around 0.5660 early on Tuesday.
TRADING
0.56600
Entry Price
0.55800
TP
0.57300
SL
0.56465 -0.00113 -0.20%
0.0
Pips
Flat
0.55800
TP
Exit Price
0.56600
Entry Price
0.57300
SL
The NZD/USD pair is experiencing a marked decline, with the currency pair trading around the 0.5660 level during the early European hours on Tuesday, continuing its downward trajectory for the second day in a row. This movement reflects a broader market sentiment shift driven by the emergence of new geopolitical and economic risks that have taken center stage.
The fresh downward pressure on the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) can be largely attributed to the latest developments surrounding US trade policy. On Monday evening, US President Donald Trump made a significant announcement that the United States would impose tariffs on imports of computer chips, pharmaceuticals, steel, aluminum, and copper. The move is part of Trump's ongoing "America First" economic agenda, aimed at reshoring critical supply chains to the US and boosting domestic manufacturing. Trump's rhetoric signals a potential escalation of tensions with global trading partners, especially those in Asia, which could have significant ripple effects on currency markets.
In addition to the import tariff proposals, the President's advisers are also considering imposing a 25% tariff on imports from Mexico and Canada, which could take effect as soon as February 1. Such threats further stoke fears of a global economic slowdown, particularly in sectors sensitive to trade policy and international supply chains. This uncertainty has contributed to a risk-off sentiment in the market, with investors favoring safe-haven assets, such as the US Dollar, over riskier currencies like the NZD.
The broader impact of these geopolitical tensions is evident in the US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the USD against a basket of six major currencies. The index has hovered near the 108.00 mark, suggesting a robust demand for the greenback amidst heightened global risks. US economic data later today will be closely scrutinized, with traders eyeing key releases such as Durable Goods Orders, the Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index, and the Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index. These data points could either reaffirm or challenge the current market outlook for the US economy, which remains a pivotal factor for global currency movements.
Domestically, the Kiwi Dollar is further pressured by market expectations surrounding the Reserve Bank of New Zealand's (RBNZ) upcoming monetary policy decisions. With a dovish bias already embedded in the market, investors are anticipating a 50 basis point rate cut from the RBNZ during its next policy meeting on February 19. This would follow the two previous rate cuts delivered by the central bank earlier in the cycle, underscoring New Zealand's ongoing economic challenges. The market is now pricing in a total of 100 basis points of rate cuts for the remainder of 2025, signaling concerns over inflation, economic growth, and the potential long-term impacts of external shocks.
The RBNZ's dovish stance has been driven by a combination of domestic factors, including sluggish inflationary pressures and weak demand in key sectors. New Zealand’s Prime Minister Christopher Luxon, speaking in parliament on Tuesday, acknowledged the challenges the economy faces but remained optimistic about the country’s growth prospects in 2025. He highlighted the government’s focus on lifting incomes, strengthening local businesses, and creating new opportunities, especially in the wake of the economic hurdles of 2024. Promising signs, such as low inflation, falling interest rates, rising wages, and improving business and consumer confidence, were cited as indicators that New Zealand is on the right path to recovery.
However, these positive signs are unlikely to offset the external pressures weighing on the NZD. Traders are increasingly concerned that the combination of aggressive US trade policies and a dovish RBNZ could further depress the Kiwi Dollar, particularly against a backdrop of a strong and resilient US Dollar.
Technical Analysis
From a technical perspective, the NZD/USD currency pair has formed a rising wedge pattern, which is typically indicative of a bearish continuation. This chart pattern suggests that the NZD/USD is facing downward pressure, with the likelihood of further declines in the coming sessions. A key support level lies at the recent low of 0.5540, which remains a significant target for bears.
As of the current trading session, the NZD/USD has already broken through the 0.5650 support level, signaling that the bearish momentum is gaining traction. A sustained break below this level would open the door for further declines, with the next potential target being the 0.5580 support zone. On the other hand, a move above the 0.5738 resistance level would negate the bearish outlook, potentially sending the pair back toward higher levels in the short term.
The expected trading range for today is between 0.5605 (support) and 0.5705 (resistance). Given the broader market dynamics and the dovish expectations surrounding the RBNZ, the overall bias for the NZD/USD remains bearish in the near term.
TRADE RECOMMENDATION
SELL NZDUSD
ENTRY PRICE: 0.56600
STOP LOSS: 0.57300
TAKE PROFIT: 0.5580
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