Pending Orders Might Be the Best Choice

Commodity

Summary:

Gold prices ended last Friday's trading with a long upper shadow on the monthly candlestick, indicating that the market did not favor further bullish momentum. Whether gold is entering a bearish phase remains to be seen. Therefore, we believe that pending orders might be the safest option until prices break further.

SELL XAUUSD

Close Time

CLOSED

2365.00

Entry Price

2265.00

2397.00

2859.85 -16.99 -0.59%

302.1

Pips

Profit

2265.00

2334.79

Exit Price

2365.00

Entry Price

2397.00

Fundamentals

Gold prices ended last Friday's trading with a long upper shadow on the monthly candlestick, suggesting that the market did not favor further bullish momentum. Bears argue that the price breakout on May 24 confirmed the formation of a "head and shoulders" pattern, implying a potential drop below the previous low of $2,377 in the coming period. Consequently, during low trading volumes on Friday, profit-taking below the intraday high of $2,360 reinforced the bearish market outlook.

However, bulls remain optimistic, arguing that bears have not entirely forced a price collapse. They believe that significant support structures still exist below the current price, which bears failed to break last week. The bearish engulfing pattern from the previous week also failed to show subsequent downward movement.

The latest weekly gold survey shows that industry experts and retail traders share a consensus on the near-term outlook for gold, with most expecting an increase in prices, while a minority remain neutral or negative. Of the 10 Wall Street analysts surveyed, the majority have returned to a bullish stance: 6 experts (60%) expect gold prices to rise this week. Two analysts (20%) predict a decline, while an equal number expect sideways trading.

Meanwhile, the online survey received 222 responses, with retail investors' views aligning with the experts. 128 retail traders (58%) expect gold prices to rise this week. Another 53 (24%) predict a decline, while 41 respondents (18%) anticipate range-bound movement over the next week.

Pending Orders Might Be the Best Choice_1

Technical Analysis

According to our observations, gold prices have historically tended to decline in June, and the current "head and shoulders" pattern supports the notion that gold prices will follow a corrective path in the near future. Additionally, we believe that based on the Fed's rate cut trajectory and structural models, the bullish market has not completely ended. Therefore, the tug-of-war between bulls and bears may continue for some time. For investors, pending orders might be the best choice.

Trading Recommendations

Trading Direction: Short

Entry Price: 2365

Target Price: 2265

Stop Loss: 2397

Valid Until: 2024-06-18 23:55:00

Support: 2331, 2325, 2306

Resistance: 2339, 2347, 2356

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

You understand and acknowledge that there is a high degree of risk involved in trading. Following any strategies or investment methods may lead to potential losses. The content on the site is provided by our contributors and analysts for information purposes only. You are solely responsible for determining whether any trading assets, securities, strategy, or any other product is suitable for investing based on your own investment objectives and financial situation.

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Eva Chen

Forex

Central Bank

Summary:

The Japanese Ministry of Finance released data showing foreign exchange interventions amounting to 9.8 trillion yen from April 26 to May 29, setting a new monthly record.

SELL USDJPY

Close Time

CLOSED

156.066

Entry Price

150.810

158.000

150.697 +0.910 +0.61%

108.2

Pips

Profit

150.810

154.984

Exit Price

156.066

Entry Price

158.000

Fundamentals

According to the Japanese Ministry of Finance, 9.8 trillion yen was purchased between April 26 and May 29, exceeding the market estimate of 9.4 trillion yen. Japan's larger-than-expected yen buying intervention does not mean the Ministry of Finance will refrain from further actions to curb the yen's decline. Japan has ample reserves. We believe the Ministry of Finance's strategy is to carefully choose intervention timing to maximize impact rather than indiscriminately spending dollars. The risk of depleting their resources remains very limited.

Potential for Further Intervention Remains_1

Technical Analysis

Following the intervention at the end of April, USDJPY sharply fell from its 34-year high of 160.20. However, the pair has slowly but steadily recovered most of the lost ground and is attempting to retest recent multi-year highs.

Momentum indicators are weakening, though. The 4-hour MACD shows a bearish divergence, and a decisive break below the minor support at 156.36 would confirm a short-term top at 157.70. Should this support be breached, the target would be 151.86 and below, marking the third leg of the corrective pattern from 160.20. Conversely, a break above 157.70 would continue the rally from 151.86 to 160.20.

Overall, despite the strong sell-off after reaching a 34-year high, USDJPY has been steadily recovering. As prices approach levels that Japan seems willing to defend, increased volatility may occur. Additionally, the unexpected scale of forex intervention does not imply that Japan will ease its control over the exchange rate.

Trading Recommendations

Trading Direction: Short

Entry Price: 156.90

Target Price: 150.81

Stop Loss: 158.00

Valid Until: 2024-06 - 18 23:55:00

Support: 156.36, 155.86, 155.17

Resistance: 157.48, 157.70, 157.99

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Eva Chen

Commodity

Economic

Summary:

Oil prices further retreated from $77.00, repricing Sunday's disappointing OPEC+ meeting. Additionally, the crude oil market will face a slew of economic data this week, expected to intensify volatility.

SELL WTI

Close Time

CLOSED

74.201

Entry Price

67.700

79.200

69.285 -0.652 -0.93%

117.3

Pips

Profit

67.700

73.028

Exit Price

74.201

Entry Price

79.200

Fundamentals

Market reaction to the decision of OPEC+ to extend production cuts until 2025 has been lukewarm, as the announcement had been priced in for some time. On the other hand, the International Energy Agency lowered its demand forecast for this year, which could lead to persistently high global inventories.

Meanwhile, with US May nonfarm payrolls data due on Friday, clues about the US dollar's direction may emerge from this week's employment indicators. Strong job figures might keep the Fed hawkish, which isn't favorable for risk assets like commodities as it signals weakened corporate and consumer spending. On the flip side, soft employment data may suggest upward potential for oil prices if traders perceive a less optimistic Fed policy.

Bearish Pressure Returns, Selling at Highs Recommended_1

Technical Analysis

WTI crude oil prices remain within a range, having recently tested the $80.00 top and now retraced below $75.00. A rebound could see it back towards nearby resistance. The middle of the range has held around $78.50-$79 per barrel as it aligns with moving averages.

Speaking of which, the 100 SMA is below the 200 SMA, indicating that the path of least resistance is downward, or that support levels are more likely to continue being breached. A stronger downturn could push oil back towards the bottom area around $70.00, with a break below the range support potentially triggering a decline equal to the pattern's height.

The stochastic oscillator can continue to fall before reaching oversold territory, hence bearish pressure may still be at play.

The RSI seems poised to rise to reflect the return of upward pressure, and oscillators have ample upside room before reflecting exhaustion among buyers.

Trading Recommendations

Trading Direction: Short

Entry Price: 77.00

Target Price: 67.70

Stop Loss: 79.20

Valid Until: 2024-06 - 18 23:55:00

Support: 74.64, 73.67, 71.43

Resistance: 75.99, 77.50, 79.11

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Warren Takunda

Commodity

Summary:

Gold prices are struggling for direction after a volatile Friday session. While cooler-than-expected inflation data initially triggered a rally, a return of risk appetite and lingering uncertainty over interest rates saw those gains fade.

SELL XAUUSD

Close Time

CLOSED

2320.00

Entry Price

2270.00

2360.00

2859.85 -16.99 -0.59%

400.0

Pips

Loss

2270.00

2360.01

Exit Price

2320.00

Entry Price

2360.00

Gold prices (XAU/USD) are stuck in a tug-of-war on Monday, oscillating between modest gains and losses in the $2,330s. This indecision follows a volatile Friday session that saw the yellow metal initially surge on cooler-than-expected US inflation data, only to relinquish those gains later.

PCE Surprise Fuels Short-Lived Rally

Gold initially spiked to a three-week high of $2,359 on Friday after the release of the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index, the Federal Reserve's preferred inflation gauge. Core PCE inflation came in at 0.2% month-over-month in April, lower than the anticipated 0.3%. This data sparked speculation that the Fed might ease its tightening grip on interest rates sooner than previously thought. A potential September rate cut, up from the previously estimated 50% chance, briefly bolstered gold's appeal as a non-yielding asset.

Rally Fades as Risk Appetite Returns

However, the gold rally proved short-lived. As the Asian session transitioned into a more risk-on environment, the safe-haven demand for gold waned. Investors remain cautious about the long-term trajectory of interest rates, with concerns about stubbornly high inflation still lingering. The Fed itself hasn't provided a clear roadmap for future policy decisions, adding to the uncertainty.

Technical Analysis

From a technical analysis perspective, the outlook for gold remains bearish. A critical concern for bulls is the persistence of the "head and shoulders" pattern.This bearish reversal signal suggests a potential decline if confirmed. For the pattern to be invalidated, a decisive break and hold above both $2,340 and $2,360 resistance levels would be necessary.

The 4-hour chart adds further weight to the bearish case. The sequence of declining peaks and troughs, coupled with the recent break of a major trendline, suggests a short-term downtrend is in place. This technical setup favors short positions over longs.

However, it's important to note that the medium and long-term trends for gold remain bullish. The risk of a recovery remains high, but current price action isn't supportive of such a move at the moment.

A break above the peak of the rectangular consolidation zone at $2,362 would be required to cast doubt on the integrity of the short-term downtrend. Otherwise, further weakness is likely on the horizon, with potential downside targets in the $2,27-$2,280 range.

TRADE RECOMMENDATION

SELL GOLD

ENTRY PRICE : 2320

STOP LOSS : 2360

TAKE PROFIT :2270

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Jason

Summary:

The release of the U.S. PCE did not change the dominant expectation of a delayed interest rate cut. Coupled with easing geopolitical tensions and decreased safe-haven demand, short-term gold prices are expected to continue to decline.

SELL XAUUSD

Close Time

CLOSED

2343.00

Entry Price

2316.91

2367.00

2859.85 -16.99 -0.59%

260.9

Pips

Profit

2316.91

2316.89

Exit Price

2343.00

Entry Price

2367.00

Fundamentals

Gold prices saw thin trading during the Asian and European sessions last Friday, but the volatility intensified during the U.S. session due to US PCE data. Following the data release, gold experienced a short-term rise of approximately US$14 and then retreated by nearly US$40 from its peak, finally closing down 0.68%.

Overall, the U.S. PCE data did not provide much support for expectations of a rate cut. With CPI and PPI coming before, it can be concluded that PCE inflation will slow down, hence the market already had expected that, which limited the rise in gold prices. Furthermore, this PCE release was due to a slowdown in volatile items, so this slowdown may be only temporary.

Based solely on this data, the justification for a rate cut is not confirmed, hence causing a sharp drop in gold prices.

Moreover, a few days ago, U.S. President Biden announced his "Gaza Peace Plan", which Israel has agreed to, and the proposal has been transmitted to Hamas through Qatar.

The new proposal is divided into three phases, with the first phase lasting six weeks. This will involve a comprehensive and complete ceasefire, the withdrawal of Israeli forces from all densely populated areas in Gaza, and the release of some hostages including women, the elderly, and the wounded in exchange for the release of several hundred Palestinian prisoners.

Israel and Hamas will "negotiate necessary arrangements for the entry into the second phase that will lead to a permanent cessation of hostilities." In the second phase, all remaining living Israeli hostages, including male soldiers, will be released. Israeli forces will also withdraw from Gaza during this stage.

In the third phase, the main reconstruction program in Gaza will begin.

Whether Hamas will agree is unknown for now. But until there is an outcome, the risk aversion caused by the geographical dispute will cool down. Admittedly, this may be full of "hardship", but at least it is a "hope".

The cooling of risk sentiment is likely to keep gold under pressure. Amid expectations of delayed rate cuts following the release of PCE data, gold may remain subdued under the dual pressures until market prices in these events, with no major data releases expected (such as job openings, ADP, non-farm payrolls).

Technical Analysis

In the 4H timeframe, gold is currently supported temporarily by the Fibonacci retracement at 1.272 (2323.98), with the bottom of the upward channel also located near this level, which can be considered a key support. A break below this level would initiate a new round of decline. The short-term strong resistance lies at 2363.14. If gold breaks above this level, it could form a head and shoulders bottom pattern, indicating potential further upside in the future.

In terms of indicators, both the baseline and conversion line are consolidating, with the price significantly diverging from both, suggesting that gold is poised for a short-term uptrend. In the DMI, after the +DI crossed -DI, both are showing a downtrend, with +DI at 14.5, indicating that gold is likely to experience an uptrend after a minor decline.

Overall, the short-term rise in gold is just a retracement, so we can go short on it after its rise.

Gold Will Decline as Short-term Bearish Sentiment Prevails_1

Trading Recommendations

Trading Direction: Short

Entry Price: 2343

Target Price: 2316.91

Stop Loss: 2367

Support: 2323.98, 2316.91, 2300

Resistance: 2329.12, 2335.42, 2347.24, 2363.14

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Jason

Summary:

The PCE data only slightly boosted rate cut expectations. Currently, the market is focused on this Friday's nonfarm payrolls to gauge the Fed's subsequent policy path, and expectations of delaying rate cuts will dominate before that.

BUY USDX

Close Time

CLOSED

104.434

Entry Price

105.517

103.600

107.180 +0.010 +0.01%

108.3

Pips

Profit

103.600

105.518

Exit Price

104.434

Entry Price

105.517

Fundamentals

Last Friday, the highly anticipated April PCE data was released, showing a year-on-year increase of 2.7% and a month-on-month increase of 0.3%, both matching previous values and expectations. Core PCE rose by 2.8% year-on-year, in line with previous values and expectations, and by 0.2% month-on-month, slightly below previous values and expectations. The US dollar index exhibited an interesting trend post-data release: it first plummeted, then recovered, ultimately closing down 0.11%.

Breaking it down, the largest contributors to the decline in goods inflation were gasoline, recreational goods, vehicles, and other nondurable goods. Within services, the largest contributors to the increase were housing and utilities (led by housing), health care (both outpatient services and hospitals), and financial services and insurance (led by financial service charges, fees, and commissions). These increases were partly offset by a decrease in transportation services (led by air transportation).

It is clear that transportation services (led by air transportation) were the primary reason for the overall PCE not increasing. The prices of transportation services (led by air transportation) are directly tied to crude oil prices. Therefore, this data slowdown is due to high-volatility items, which are inherently unstable. In other words, this slowdown might just be temporary.

This single data point does not justify rate cuts. The Fed would need to see two consecutive slowing CPI reports or a slowdown in the real economy exceeding their expectations to justify a rate cut.

As the market tends to react to data immediately, rate cut expectations slightly rose post-data, and the US dollar index fell briefly. However, as the data was interpreted further, revealing the persistent nature of inflation, the US dollar index quickly rebounded after hitting a short-term low.

Overall, this data only slightly boosted rate cut expectations. The interest rate swap market pricing remained stable after the data release, with at least one rate cut expected from the Fed in 2024.

Currently, the market is focused on this Friday's nonfarm payrolls to gauge the Fed's subsequent policy path, and expectations of delaying rate cuts will dominate before that.

Technical Analysis

In the 4-hour chart, the US dollar index found support at the bottom of its recent range following last Friday's low. Given the light trading on Monday, the US dollar index is expected to continue fluctuating within this range. Short-term resistance is at 104.768; breaking this level could lead to a test of the range's top.

In terms of indicators, in the Ichimoku cloud, the baseline and the conversion line are moving horizontally, with the price temporarily blocked by the conversion line, indicating an upcoming upward trend for the index. In the DMI, +DI is below, at 17.3, indicating the index will continue to rise after a slight decline.

Overall, the trading strategy for the day is to buy low.

Short-term Trend Expected to Remain Upward_1

Trading Recommendations

Trading Direction: Long

Entry Price: 104.479

Target Price: 105.517

Stop Loss: 103.6

Support: 104.383, 104.00, 103.473

Resistance: 104.768, 105.071, 105.517

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Winkelmann

Cryptocurrency

Summary:

Despite the unfavorable impact of the hawkish Fed, Bitcoin is bucking the trend and is expected to hit an all-time high again. This week's U.S. nonfarm payrolls will be a catalyst.

BUY BTC-USDT

Close Time

CLOSED

68338.6

Entry Price

73000.0

63900.0

80843.8 -4655.8 -5.45%

734.1

Pips

Profit

63900.0

69072.7

Exit Price

68338.6

Entry Price

73000.0

Fundamentals

Cryptocurrencies such as Bitcoin and Ethereum ascended under unfavorable impacts from the hawkish Fed in May. Especially, Ethereum surged more than 30% in May, which was mainly attributed to the regulator's support for the U.S. spot Ethereum ETFs, boosting the crypto market.

With the U.S. PCE price index coming in slightly lower than expected last Friday, easing inflation data and improved prospects for interest rate cuts supported Bitcoin prices. Besides, the U.S. nonfarm payrolls report, which will be announced in the first week of June, could be the next catalyst for Bitcoin's rise. Bitcoin is even expected to re-test or break through the all-time high of $73,000, which was set in March of this year.

Technical Analysis

Targeting New High and Waiting for New Catalyst _1

In the 4H chart, BTCUSD has oscillated for a long time. It has rebounded and left the consolidating area recently, with the pattern center lifted continuously. When the U.S. Treasury yields and gold prices plummeted, Bitcoins stayed above $68000. With the support of the ascending trendline, bulls consolidated horizontally and sought momentum, and Bitcoins will likely hit the previous high soon.

It is recommended to buy Bitcoins at lows. When BTCUSD retraces to $68,000, investors can go long on it and set the target near the historical high of $73,000. The stop-loss can be set below $64,700.

Trading Recommendations

Trading direction: Long

Entry price: 68000

Target price: 73000

Stop loss: 63900

Support: 64600/667000

Resistance: 73000/71500

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Pending Orders Might Be the Best Choice

Fundamentals

Technical Analysis

Trading Recommendations

Potential for Further Intervention Remains

Fundamentals

Technical Analysis

Trading Recommendations

Bearish Pressure Returns, Selling at Highs Recommended

Fundamentals

Technical Analysis

Trading Recommendations

Gold Stutters After PCE Inflation Surprise, Technicals Remain Bearish

Gold Will Decline as Short-term Bearish Sentiment Prevails

Fundamentals

Technical Analysis

Trading Recommendations

Short-term Trend Expected to Remain Upward

Fundamentals

Technical Analysis

Trading Recommendations

Targeting New High and Waiting for New Catalyst

Fundamentals

Technical Analysis

Trading Recommendations

Risk Disclosure