Pound Sterling Drops Sharply as UK GDP and Factory Data Disappoint

Economic

Summary:

The British Pound fell significantly after data revealed a surprising contraction in the UK’s GDP and factory output for October, while expectations mount for volatile trading ahead of key economic releases next week.

SELL GBPUSD

Close Time

CLOSED

1.26300

Entry Price

1.23000

1.28000

1.22291 +0.00268 +0.22%

115.0

Pips

Profit

1.23000

1.25150

Exit Price

1.26300

Entry Price

1.28000

The British Pound Sterling (GBP) experienced a sharp selloff on Friday after dismal economic data highlighted persistent weakness in the United Kingdom’s economy. The Office for National Statistics (ONS) reported that the UK’s monthly Gross Domestic Product (GDP) declined by 0.1% in October, extending the contraction from September and falling short of economists’ forecasts for modest growth of 0.1%.

Adding to the bleak picture, both Industrial and Manufacturing Production contracted by 0.6% month-on-month, marking a second consecutive month of declines. Analysts had hoped for a rebound in factory output, but those expectations were dashed. On an annual basis, Industrial Production slipped by 0.7%, while Manufacturing Production stagnated.

The disappointing data underscores ongoing struggles in the UK’s industrial sector. Persistent weakness suggests that producers are scaling back operations in anticipation of reduced consumer demand, exacerbated by rising employer costs. The Labour Party’s recent policy to increase employers’ National Insurance (NI) contributions from 13.8% to 15% has further strained businesses, eliciting widespread dissatisfaction.

The Pound is likely to face heightened volatility in the coming week as investors brace for key economic releases, including UK employment figures for the three months ending October and November’s Consumer Price Index (CPI). Additionally, the Bank of England (BoE) will convene on Thursday to determine interest rates. While markets widely anticipate the BoE will maintain rates at 4.75%, any surprises could significantly impact the GBP’s trajectory.

The Pound’s decline coincides with contrasting developments in the United States, where the Dollar continues to strengthen. The US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the Greenback against a basket of major currencies, climbed above 107.00 on Friday, extending its six-day winning streak. The surge followed a hotter-than-expected US Producer Price Index (PPI) report for November, which revealed that both headline and core producer inflation accelerated to 3% and 3.4% year-on-year, respectively.

On a monthly basis, headline PPI rose by 0.4%, exceeding the previous 0.3%, while core PPI met expectations at 0.2%. The data suggests rising input costs that businesses may pass on to consumers, potentially fueling higher consumer inflation. This complicates the Federal Reserve’s efforts to balance economic growth with inflation control. While traders are pricing in a 25-basis-point rate cut at the Fed’s meeting next Wednesday, the higher-than-expected PPI could prompt the central bank to reconsider its policy-easing trajectory for January.

Technical Analysis

From a technical standpoint, the GBP/USD pair extended its downside momentum to trade near 1.2625 after failing to sustain levels above the 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 1.2715. The pair fell close to the upward-sloping trendline around 1.2610, originating from the October 2023 low of 1.2035.

The recent price action invalidated the inverted head-and-shoulders pattern highlighted in prior analyses, leaving the pair under sustained bearish pressure. Immediate support lies at 1.2565, which could serve as the next downside target. Conversely, a breach above the 1.2735 resistance level would halt the bearish trend and signal potential recovery attempts in the short term.

Expected Trading Range: 1.2575 (support) – 1.2730 (resistance). Trend Forecast: Bearish.

TRADE RECOMMEDNATION

SELL GBPUSD

ENTRY PRICE: 1.2630

STOP LOSS: 1.2800

TAKE PROFIT: 1.2300

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

You understand and acknowledge that there is a high degree of risk involved in trading. Following any strategies or investment methods may lead to potential losses. The content on the site is provided by our contributors and analysts for information purposes only. You are solely responsible for determining whether any trading assets, securities, strategy, or any other product is suitable for investing based on your own investment objectives and financial situation.

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Manuel

Cryptocurrency

Summary:

Consolidation phases often maintain consistent highs and lows, suggesting long opportunities targeting 0.0026.

BUY SOL-BTC

Close Time

CLOSED

0.0022150

Entry Price

0.0026000

0.0020800

0.0019470 +0.0000080 +0.41%

135.0

Pips

Loss

0.0020800

Exit Price

0.0022150

Entry Price

0.0026000

Blockchain data analytics company Chainalysis has announced new support for tracking activity within the Solana network. This enhancement allows for comprehensive monitoring of cryptocurrencies and tokens operating on Solana, broadening the scope of its blockchain analysis services.

Matthew Wilson, Chainalysis's Director of Product, shared the news via LinkedIn, stating: "Chainalysis has expanded its Solana coverage to include all Solana tokens within KYT and Reactor. From the moment an SPL contract is deployed, Chainalysis provides notifications, exposure metrics, and full tracing capabilities."

This development equips exchanges and businesses utilizing Chainalysis tools with detailed insights into tokens on Solana, ensuring robust compliance. Additionally, Wilson emphasized its utility for governments and security organizations in investigating fraud and scams associated with these assets.

Notably, this move includes support for tracking activity on platforms like Pump.fun, which facilitates the issuance of tokens and memecoins on Solana. While many well-known cryptocurrencies have emerged from this platform, it has also been linked to numerous scam projects.

The announcement comes on the heels of Arkham Intelligence's expansion into the Solana ecosystem, where they now provide detailed data on tokens, projects, and wallets. Both developments highlight the increasing importance of Solana in the blockchain space.

Moreover, this news aligns with a broader market trend, as the memecoin sector sees record-high trading volumes and capital inflows. Solana has emerged as a hub for such tokens due to the ease of creation offered by platforms like Pump.fun.

In a parallel development, asset management giant BlackRock has recommended certain investors allocate 2% of their portfolios to Bitcoin. This marks a significant shift, as it’s the first time the firm has issued specific guidance on Bitcoin allocation, signaling growing institutional confidence.

The recommendation appeared in a report shared by Bloomberg analyst Eric Balchunas, describing it as a positive step for Bitcoin adoption. As of now, BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) manages 530,831 BTC, valued at over $53.8 billion, making it the top-performing Bitcoin ETF.

Bitcoin itself has reached significant milestones, recently surpassing $100,000 per unit. However, the market remains highly volatile, driven by liquidation events and substantial trading volumes.

Adding to the momentum, newly elected U.S. President Donald Trump has reaffirmed plans to establish a strategic Bitcoin reserve for the country. In an interview with CNBC’s Jim Cramer, Trump reiterated his campaign promise to position the U.S. as a global leader in cryptocurrency innovation.

SOLBTC Triple Test Bullish Opportunities Ahead_1

Technical Analysis

For the SOLBTC pair, the price has once again reached the local low of 0.002144, marking the third test of this level. On each previous occasion, the price initiated a bullish move from this zone. Should the pattern repeat, a rally toward the upper boundary of the channel is possible. The RSI at 33.80 aligns with levels observed during prior rebounds, further supporting this potential scenario.

The 100- and 200-period moving averages are positioned in the middle of the channel, indicating a consolidating price range. Consolidation phases often maintain consistent highs and lows, suggesting long opportunities targeting 0.0026. Conversely, a break below 0.002144 could push the price down to 0.001976.

Trading Recommendations

Trading direction: Buy

Entry price: 0.002215

Target price: 0.002600

Stop loss: 0.002080

Validity: Dec 20, 2024 15:00:00

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Eva Chen

Central Bank

Forex

Summary:

On Thursday, against the backdrop of a declining US dollar, the EURUSD rebounded above 1.0500. However, the upside potential for EURUSD seems limited due to expectations of further rate cuts by the European Central Bank (ECB) in 2025. Attention is now turned to the ECB's policy statement and Lagarde's press conference.

BUY EURUSD

Close Time

CLOSED

1.04727

Entry Price

1.07090

1.03830

1.02608 +0.00264 +0.26%

89.7

Pips

Loss

1.03830

1.03826

Exit Price

1.04727

Entry Price

1.07090

Fundamentals

The focus of financial markets on Thursday was the ECB policy meeting. The market currently anticipates a 25bps cut in the benchmark interest rate at this meeting. Ahead of the ECB's policy statement, the EURUSD held onto gains above 1.0500.

For the ECB, debate also revolves around the scale of its next move. Recent speculation about a 50bps rate cut has been largely dispelled by comments from ECB officials. A more likely outcome is a 25bps reduction in the deposit rate to 3.00%.

However, market participants are closely watching the tone of the ECB's statement and press conference. Amid weak economic activity, inflation is expected to stabilize at the target level in the middle of 2025. The ECB will make it clear that continued easing will be needed next year.

Currently, investors are expecting rate cuts at every meeting, with the deposit rate potentially reaching 1.75% by the end of 2025. However, such an aggressive pace of rate cuts could push rates below neutral levels.

EURUSD: Navigating Choppy Waters with Strategic Buy-Low, Sell-High Tactics _1

Technical Analysis

In terms of market impact, the EURUSD has fallen sharply after failing to break through the 1.0600 psychological level and is now challenging the 1.0500 level. Over the past month, the asset has been trading within a narrow range between 1.0450 and 1.0600. Oscillators indicate further declines ahead. The Relative Strength Index has fallen below the neutral level of 50, and the MACD lines are moving below the 0 axis.

On the downside, a break below the 1.0471 support level for EURUSD would indicate that the corrective rebound from the 1.0330 level has completed at 1.0629, and the decline from 1.1213 is set to resume. The intraday bias will first return to the downtrend at 1.0330, followed by 1.0254. Additionally, in this scenario, persistent trading below the key Fibonacci level of 1.0404 would bring a stronger bearish implication.

On the other hand, if the price breaks through the MA20 of 1.0530, the market may return to the key level of 1.0600. If the market shows sufficient strength this time and breaks through this area, the next resistance could come from 1.0665.

Overall, since its peak at 1.1215, EURUSD has been strongly bearish. Only a breakthrough of the MA200 at 1.0830 could potentially turn the outlook bullish.

Trading Recommendations

Trading Direction: Buy

Entry Price: 1.0465

Target Price: 1.0709

Stop Loss: 1.0383

Deadline: December 27, 2024, 23:55:00

Support: 1.0479/1.0461/1.0426

Resistance: 1.0530/1.0568/1.0600

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Warren Takunda

Commodity

Summary:

Silver prices surged to a five-week high, driven by expectations of a Fed rate cut and moderate inflation data. The market awaits China’s economic policy update, which could boost demand for silver.

BUY XAGUSD

EXP

EXPIRED

31.800

Entry Price

34.000

30.200

29.660 +0.051 +0.17%

Pips

EXPIRED

30.200

29.698

Exit Price

31.800

Entry Price

34.000

Silver prices surged to a fresh five-week high, reaching approximately $32.30 during Thursday’s European trading session, as traders have fully priced in expectations of a Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rate cut in the upcoming policy meeting on Wednesday. The optimistic sentiment surrounding the white metal comes as investors anticipate that the Fed will implement a 25 basis point (bps) reduction in rates, bringing the target range to 4.25%-4.50%. This shift is particularly beneficial for non-yielding assets like silver, which stand to gain as lower interest rates reduce the opportunity costs of holding such metals.

The uptick in silver prices is also fueled by broader market expectations that the Fed will adopt a more dovish stance in response to recent economic data. The release of the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) for November revealed moderate growth in rental prices, a key component of inflation, which has further intensified the outlook for a dovish Fed. The headline CPI, which tracks the overall inflation rate, rose by 2.7% year-over-year, while the core CPI, excluding the more volatile food and energy components, increased by 3.3%, both in line with market expectations.

This data has reinforced expectations that inflationary pressures are easing, giving the central bank more room to lower borrowing costs. In response, the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the strength of the dollar against a basket of six major currencies, dropped to around 106.50, while 10-year U.S. Treasury yields edged higher, approaching 4.30%. The drop in the dollar’s value typically benefits precious metals, as they become more affordable for investors holding other currencies.

Looking ahead, market participants are eagerly awaiting the outcome of China’s high-level economic work conference, a two-day closed-door meeting where Chinese leadership will unveil the country’s economic agenda for 2025. Analysts anticipate that China’s government may roll out a significant stimulus package aimed at bolstering domestic consumption and stabilizing the country’s real estate sector. Given silver’s extensive use in industrial applications, including solar energy, electric vehicles, and mining, any substantial economic stimulus from China would likely spur demand for the metal, further supporting its price trajectory.

Technical Analysis

From a technical perspective, silver’s recent price movement reinforces the expectation of continued bullish momentum in the near term. The market has now resumed its upward trajectory, which positions silver to potentially hit the next resistance level at $32.86. A break above this level could pave the way for further gains, with $34.00 emerging as the next target. As long as the price stays above key support levels, the bullish trend remains intact.

However, traders should be mindful of the downside risks. If silver fails to maintain its upward trajectory and falls below the $31.45 mark, this could signal a reversal in sentiment, with prices turning lower. In such a scenario, the bullish wave would lose momentum, and silver prices could see a decline.

For the day ahead, the expected trading range for silver is between the support level of $31.60 and resistance at $32.50. Given the overall bullish outlook, the trend remains positive, with the potential for further gains if silver can continue to maintain its upward momentum.

TRADE RECOMMENDATION

BUY XAGUSD

ENTRY PRICE: 31.800

STOP LOSS: 30.200

TAKE PROFIT: 34.00

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Warren Takunda

Economic

Summary:

The NZD/USD pair gives up earlier gains as the US Dollar recovers despite traders anticipating a 25 basis point cut in US interest rates.

SELL NZDUSD

Close Time

CLOSED

0.57950

Entry Price

0.57000

0.58600

0.56014 +0.00187 +0.33%

26.7

Pips

Profit

0.57000

0.57683

Exit Price

0.57950

Entry Price

0.58600

The NZD/USD currency pair, which had shown signs of recovery earlier on Thursday, quickly surrendered its intraday gains as the US Dollar regained strength across the board. This turn of events, despite market expectations of a dovish Federal Reserve (Fed) stance, underlines the ongoing pressure on the New Zealand Dollar. As of the early North American session, the Kiwi pair slid back below the critical 0.5800 level, continuing its struggle in a broader bearish trend.

This reversal comes after a brief period of optimism, during which market participants had priced in a potential 25 basis point rate cut from the Federal Reserve following its two-day monetary policy meeting. Despite the Fed's dovish outlook, which suggests that US interest rates could be reduced to 4.25%-4.50%, the US Dollar managed to recover much of its recent losses, prompting a renewed sell-off in the NZD/USD pair.

The Kiwi has faced significant headwinds for more than two months, languishing near a two-year low. The ongoing deterioration of the New Zealand Dollar's outlook is attributed to several factors, most notably the aggressive interest rate cuts implemented by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ). In a bid to address economic slowdowns, the RBNZ has slashed its Official Cash Rate (OCR) by a cumulative 125 basis points in three consecutive policy meetings this year, bringing it to its current level of 4.25%.

The central bank's actions reflect the increasingly challenging economic landscape in New Zealand, driven by slowing inflationary pressures, a weakening labor market, and disappointing business activity. The RBNZ's response to these developments has been a necessary one; however, it has come at a cost to the value of the New Zealand Dollar, which has struggled to find any lasting support.

At the same time, the US Dollar has been gaining ground on global markets, buoyed by expectations that US fiscal policy under President-elect Donald Trump will inject inflationary pressures into the economy. The anticipated implementation of higher import tariffs and tax cuts is seen as potentially boosting inflation, which in turn strengthens the appeal of the US Dollar relative to other currencies. This has exacerbated the downward pressure on the Kiwi, which has been further weakened by the Fed's dovish stance.

Technical Analysis

Technically, the NZD/USD pair is currently showing some bullish divergence, but this pattern seems unlikely to trigger a substantial reversal in the near term. The short-term outlook for the pair remains decidedly bearish, with the likelihood of a continued decline towards the 0.5700 level. Despite the brief uptick above the 0.5800 mark, the broader trend remains negative, and the pair will likely struggle to maintain gains in the face of persistent pressure from the US Dollar.

The pair's resistance is seen at the 0.5860 level, which continues to cap any significant upward movement. The EMA50 (50-period Exponential Moving Average) remains a key technical indicator, reinforcing the bearish bias as it provides resistance to any rally attempts. In the near term, the expected trading range for NZD/USD is between the support at 0.5750 and resistance at 0.5850. Traders will be closely watching for any developments that might shift the technical landscape, but for now, the bearish outlook prevails.

TRADE RECOMMENDATION

SELL NZDUSD

ENTRY PRICE: 0.5795

STOP LOSS: 0.5860

TAKE PROFIT: 0.5700

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

Add to Favorites

Warren Takunda

Economic

Summary:

USD/JPY Pulls Back From Highs as Bulls Face Resistance at 152.90

BUY USDJPY

Close Time

CLOSED

152.301

Entry Price

155.000

151.000

157.344 -0.104 -0.07%

56.4

Pips

Profit

151.000

152.865

Exit Price

152.301

Entry Price

155.000

The USD/JPY pair reversed earlier gains, retreating from a high of 152.90 as bulls paused amid dovish commentary from the Bank of Japan (BoJ) and strong U.S. economic data. While immediate sentiment remains positive, the pair faces key resistance at 152.70, with broader bullish momentum intact. Market participants focus on upcoming U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI) and Jobless Claims data for further direction.

The USD/JPY pair's upward trajectory hit a pause on Thursday as the pair edged lower, breaking a three-day winning streak. Following a sharp ascent earlier this week, the pair struggled to sustain momentum above 152.90, a level that marks significant technical resistance. At the time of writing, USD/JPY trades with moderate losses, drawing market attention to the imminent release of key U.S. economic data, including Producer Price Index (PPI) and Initial Jobless Claims.

From a broader perspective, however, the Greenback continues to enjoy a strong bullish trend against the Japanese Yen. This sustained upward pressure is primarily underpinned by a divergence in monetary policy outlooks between the United States and Japan. Dovish remarks from BoJ officials, signaling no urgency to tighten monetary policy, have cast doubts over any meaningful changes in the upcoming monetary policy meeting, keeping the Yen under pressure.

The Bank of Japan has reiterated its dovish stance, with key policymakers emphasizing the need for maintaining ultra-loose monetary policy until inflation becomes sustainably anchored above the 2% target. This cautious approach comes amid lingering concerns over wage growth and core inflation trends in Japan. Markets now speculate that the central bank will delay any major policy changes in its next meeting, reinforcing bearish sentiment on the Yen.

The BoJ’s dovish posture contrasts sharply with the hawkish Federal Reserve, which has maintained higher interest rates to combat persistent inflationary pressures. The result has been a widening yield differential between U.S. and Japanese government bonds, further bolstering the Greenback’s appeal.

Adding to the Dollar’s support, U.S. economic data continues to paint a picture of resilience. The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield has climbed to 4.30%, up from 4.12% a week ago, reflecting robust market confidence. U.S. inflation accelerated in November at its fastest pace in seven months, reigniting speculation that the Federal Reserve may hold rates higher for longer into 2024. This has diminished expectations for monetary easing in 2025, further strengthening the Greenback.

Market focus today shifts to the release of November’s Producer Price Index and the latest Jobless Claims data. Analysts anticipate factory gate prices to show an uptick, reflecting persistent inflationary pressures. Meanwhile, initial unemployment claims are expected to decline, signaling continued strength in the labor market. These developments could validate the narrative of a resilient U.S. economy and lend additional support to the Dollar.

Technical AnalysisFrom a technical perspective, USD/JPY has found significant resistance at 152.70 after reaching this level earlier in the week. The pair’s recent retreat suggests a short-term pullback as it gathers momentum for another attempt to breach this key resistance zone. A successful breakout above 152.70 would pave the way for further upside toward the next target at 155.00.

The positive outlook is reinforced by the influence of a double-bottom pattern, which suggests continued bullish momentum on both intraday and short-term bases. However, any downside break of 151.20 could trigger intraday losses, with the pair potentially testing support near 150.18 before resuming its upward trajectory.

The USD/JPY pair’s ongoing bullish trajectory underscores the powerful interplay between monetary policy divergence and economic fundamentals. As the BoJ continues to signal caution, the Yen remains vulnerable, particularly in an environment of rising U.S. yields and robust data. While short-term pullbacks may occur, the broader trend remains firmly in favor of the Greenback, barring any unexpected dovish pivot from the Federal Reserve or significant policy surprises from the BoJ. For traders, the focus remains on key technical levels, with a sustained break above 152.70 likely signaling the next leg higher.

TRADE RECOMMENDATION

BUY USDJPY

ENTRY PRICE: 152.30

STOP LOSS: 151.00

TAKE PROFIT: 155.00

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Warren Takunda

Economic

Summary:

The Australian Dollar (AUD) staged a sharp recovery following stronger-than-expected domestic employment data but has encountered resistance at 0.6435.

SELL AUDUSD

Close Time

CLOSED

0.63950

Entry Price

0.62000

0.64800

0.61907 +0.00161 +0.26%

24.2

Pips

Profit

0.62000

0.63708

Exit Price

0.63950

Entry Price

0.64800

The Australian Dollar has clawed back some ground from year-to-date lows, spurred by an impressive Australian labor market report. However, its momentum has faltered near the 0.6435 level, with the Greenback's enduring strength continuing to weigh heavily on the pair.

Earlier today, Australia reported a net gain of 36.6K jobs in November, significantly outpacing the 25K forecast and the downwardly revised 12.1K increase seen in October. The uptick was coupled with a notable drop in the unemployment rate, which declined to 3.9%, marking its lowest level since March and beating market expectations of a rise to 4.2%.

This robust labor market data signals resilience in the Australian economy, despite recent dovish signals from the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). On Tuesday, the RBA’s monetary policy statement highlighted concerns about the global economic slowdown, with the central bank emphasizing a cautious stance on rate hikes. However, today’s labor data somewhat counterbalances this narrative, suggesting a tighter labor market than previously thought.

The Australian Dollar’s recovery efforts remain hampered by the persistent strength of the US Dollar. The USD remains buoyed by economic data that reinforces the narrative of US economic exceptionalism. The Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the currency against a basket of six major peers, hovers near two-week highs, bolstered by higher Treasury yields.

Earlier this week, US consumer inflation data for November showed its fastest acceleration in seven months, hinting at sustained price pressures. Later today, attention will turn to US Producer Price Index (PPI) figures and weekly jobless claims, which are expected to further underscore the strength of the US labor market and economy.

Technical Analysis

Technically, AUD/USD has struggled to maintain upward momentum despite positive employment data. The pair approached the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA50), which continues to exert downward pressure. Additionally, the stochastic oscillator shows waning bullish momentum, increasing the likelihood of a bearish reversal in upcoming sessions.

Key support levels for the pair lie at 0.6360, with the next major downside target pegged at 0.6200. On the upside, breaching resistance at 0.6450 would signal the potential for a short-term bullish correction.

Despite the positive employment figures, the Australian Dollar faces an uphill battle. The broader macroeconomic environment remains challenging, with the USD continuing to benefit from stronger economic fundamentals and higher interest rates. Unless the AUD/USD can break above the critical 0.6450 resistance level, the pair is likely to resume its downward trajectory in the near term.

TRADE RECOMMENDATION

SELL AUDUSD

ENTRY PRICE: 0.6395

STOP LOSS: 0.6480

TAKE PROFIT: 0.6200

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Pound Sterling Drops Sharply as UK GDP and Factory Data Disappoint

Technical Analysis

SOLBTC Triple Test Bullish Opportunities Ahead

Technical Analysis

Navigating Choppy Waters with Strategic Buy-Low, Sell-High Tactics

Fundamentals

Technical Analysis

Trading Recommendations

Silver Price Surge Driven by Fed Expectations and China’s Stimulus Speculation

NZD/USD Surrenders Intraday Gains Amid US Dollar Rebound Despite Dovish Fed Expectations

Dovish BoJ Leaves Yen Vulnerable; USD/JPY Eyes Break Above 152.70

Australian Dollar Hits Resistance as US Economic Strength Caps Recovery

Technical Analysis

Risk Disclosure