Pullback Is Coming to an End, and the Bullish Trend Is Set to Continue

Commodity

Central Bank

Summary:

The U.S. presidential election is reaching a critical phase. If Trump is elected, it could be beneficial for silver prices, whereas a Harris victory might negatively impact them. Additionally, this week, attention should be paid to the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting and Powell's speech.

BUY XAGUSD

Close Time

CLOSED

32.674

Entry Price

35.300

31.200

29.819 +0.186 +0.63%

147.4

Pips

Loss

31.200

Exit Price

32.674

Entry Price

35.300

Fundamentals

Today, the U.S. elections are reaching a critical phase, and it remains uncertain whether Trump or Harris will assume the presidency. However, the market anticipates that a Trump victory could stimulate demand, as his proposed economic policies are believed to potentially trigger inflation, which may drive silver prices to new highs. Conversely, if Harris is elected, it could alleviate inflation concerns, leading to a more subdued reaction in the metals market, as her policies are viewed as a continuation of the current Biden administration's economic strategies.

In addition to the U.S. elections, attention should also be paid to the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting on Friday. The significantly disappointing non-farm payroll data from last week has nearly solidified the expectation of a rate cut in November, which could further support rising silver prices. It is crucial to closely monitor the remarks from Fed Chairman Powell during the meeting, particularly regarding the potential for further easing if the U.S. economy shows signs of weakness.

Moreover, following Iran's announcement over the weekend of plans to retaliate against Israel, tensions in the Middle East are escalating, which may once again highlight the safe-haven attributes of gold and silver. Increased safe-haven buying, along with a rise in buying at the dips due to recent price corrections, could propel silver prices higher.

Technical Analysis

Pullback Is Coming to an End, and the Bullish Trend Is Set to Continue_1

In the 1D timeframe, silver has shown signs of a reversal since the pullback that began on October 22, with yesterday's candlestick forming a bullish doji at the critical support level of US$32.30. Meanwhile, it has retraced to the upward trend line, maintaining a slight upward momentum today, which indicates a bullish resonance. This suggests that silver may stabilize and rebound, potentially continuing its previous upward trend.

Currently, silver remains in an upward trend. If the price holds above the US$32.30 support level, it may sustain this upward trend in the future. Conversely, if it continues to decline, it could test the support range of US$31.60 to US$31.90.

It is recommended to go long at the lows.

Trading Recommendations

Trading Direction: Buy

Entry Price: 32.50

Target Price: 35.30

Stop Loss: 31.20

Deadline: November 19, 2024 15:00:00

Support: 32.23, 31.90, 31.34

Resistance: 33.11, 34.51, 34.85

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

You understand and acknowledge that there is a high degree of risk involved in trading. Following any strategies or investment methods may lead to potential losses. The content on the site is provided by our contributors and analysts for information purposes only. You are solely responsible for determining whether any trading assets, securities, strategy, or any other product is suitable for investing based on your own investment objectives and financial situation.

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Warren Takunda

Economic

Summary:

The USD/CAD pair is under pressure, trading around 1.3880, as steady oil prices provide support for the commodity-linked Canadian Dollar.

SELL USDCAD

Close Time

CLOSED

1.38800

Entry Price

1.37600

1.39500

1.44065 +0.00591 +0.41%

70.0

Pips

Loss

1.37600

1.39503

Exit Price

1.38800

Entry Price

1.39500

The USD/CAD exchange rate has extended its losses for the second consecutive session, now hovering around 1.3880 during European trading hours on Tuesday. This movement can be attributed to the resilience of the commodity-linked Canadian Dollar (CAD), which appears to have gained traction amid stable oil prices. As Canada stands as the largest oil exporter to the United States, the performance of crude oil is crucial for the CAD's strength.

At present, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil is maintaining its position at approximately $71.50 per barrel. This steadiness in oil prices comes as traders exercise caution, especially in light of the heightened uncertainties surrounding the U.S. presidential election, which is set to take place today. With former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris engaged in a neck-and-neck race, both candidates campaigned vigorously across key battleground states, such as Pennsylvania, on Monday—the final day of their campaigns. Polls suggest a dead heat between the two, and market observers are bracing for the possibility that the election results may take days to be finalized. Trump has already hinted at potential challenges to any unfavorable outcomes, reminiscent of the controversial aftermath of the 2020 election.

As the U.S. Dollar (USD) faces downward pressure ahead of this pivotal election, the improving yields on U.S. Treasuries may serve to temper any significant declines in the dollar’s value. The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY), which gauges the greenback against a basket of six major currencies, is currently trading at around 103.80. Meanwhile, the yields on 2-year and 10-year U.S. Treasury bonds stand at 4.17% and 4.30%, respectively, suggesting a mixed outlook for the USD amid the prevailing uncertainty.

On the CAD front, expectations are building ahead of the Bank of Canada's (BoC) upcoming monetary policy meeting in December, where analysts anticipate a substantial rate cut. Governor Tiff Macklem has hinted at the possibility of a 50 basis point (bps) reduction, which could further impact the CAD's trajectory. As market participants gear up for the release of Canada’s International Merchandise Trade data—covering both imports and exports—scheduled for today, the focus will soon shift to the BoC Summary of Deliberations and the Ivey Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) data set to be released on Wednesday.

Technical Analysis

From a technical standpoint, the USD/CAD pair is fluctuating around the EMA50, which has formed a solid support level. A breakthrough above this barrier is needed for the pair to test the first correctional level at 1.3831. Should the price breach this level, it could extend the bearish wave to target 1.3753. Additionally, the stochastic oscillator is losing its positive momentum, reinforcing a negative outlook, particularly as long as the price remains below the resistance level of 1.3960.

For today, traders should anticipate a trading range between 1.3830 on the support side and 1.3965 on the resistance front, with a bearish trend forecast prevailing in the short term.

TRADE RECOMMENDATION

SELL USDCAD

ENTRY PRICE: 1.3880

STOP LOSS: 1.3950

TAKE PROFIT: 1.3760

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Manuel

Economic

Political

Summary:

BUY EURUSD

Close Time

CLOSED

1.08198

Entry Price

1.09800

1.07300

1.04066 +0.00156 +0.15%

89.8

Pips

Loss

1.07300

1.07296

Exit Price

1.08198

Entry Price

1.09800

The U.S. is entering a decisive phase with its upcoming presidential election, featuring a close race between Republican Donald Trump and Democrat Kamala Harris. As Americans head to the polls, markets remain highly sensitive, with significant implications for future U.S. economic policies driving investor sentiment. These policy changes could lead to diverging paths for fiscal and monetary approaches, contributing to heightened anticipation and uncertainty in the markets.

Adding further weight to the week, the Federal Reserve is expected to make a rate decision between November 4 and November 8, with a 25-basis-point rate cut already factored into current market prices. Analysts expect an additional 25-basis-point reduction in December and potentially more cuts in the following months, aligning the Fed’s actions with economic pressures that may intensify based on the election outcome. Given the expected rate cut and its potential impact on market sentiment, the Fed’s decision could amplify market volatility significantly, especially if unexpected shifts occur.

On Friday, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported that October’s Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) rose by only 12,000, well below the forecasted 113,000 and showing a marked slowdown from September’s revised 223,000 gain (originally 254,000). Despite steady unemployment at 4.1%, job reductions in the manufacturing sector highlight a key structural shift, with 46,000 jobs cut in October, totaling 93,000 since February. While job losses in manufacturing continue, the growth in services counters this trend, underscoring a characteristic shift in post-industrial economies. Interestingly, a similar employment decline in manufacturing between 2006-2008 did not result in a downturn or prompt the Fed to hasten rate cuts, providing context for the current economic landscape.

In a separate commentary, ECB Vice President Luis de Guindos noted that while Eurozone disinflation is progressing, risks to the inflation outlook remain, per Scotiabank’s Chief FX Strategist Shaun Osborne. This statement suggests the ECB may proceed cautiously with rate reductions, even as market participants anticipate another deposit rate cut. Although a further ECB rate cut is widely anticipated, debates continue over whether the bank will adhere to its typical 25-bps cut or pursue a more substantial reduction. Concerns over persistently low inflation, with levels still below the 2% target, add pressure for a potentially more aggressive cut from the ECB.

Meanwhile, Germany’s economic condition is in the spotlight amid concerns of a potential recession and inflation uncertainties. Preliminary GDP data for Germany and the Eurozone are due Wednesday, with economists predicting a 0.3% contraction in Germany’s GDP year-over-year for Q3 following a stagnant Q2. Conversely, the Eurozone is projected to show growth at 0.8%, up from 0.6%, indicating a divergence in regional economic strength. Buying Opportunities With Upcoming Elections and Fed Rate Cut_1

Buying Opportunities With Upcoming Elections and Fed Rate Cut_1

Technical Analysis

The EUR/USD has recently found support near an ascending trendline, marking a local low of 1.0767 on October 21. This move established a higher low without forming new lows, potentially increasing upward pressure and strengthening the bullish outlook. The 100- and 200-day moving averages currently align with the price level around 1.0876, providing technical support.

A potential ascending channel formation suggests further upward movement. With the U.S. presidential election set for tomorrow and an anticipated Fed rate cut, there is a possibility for USD weakening, which could drive EUR/USD higher. If this upward momentum continues, the pair may reach the 0.50 Fibonacci retracement level, near 1.09835, positioned close to a resistance zone.

Trading Recommendations

Trading direction: Buy

Entry price: 1.0820

Target price: 1.0980

Stop loss: 1.0730

Validity: Nov 15, 2024 15:00:00

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Manuel

Cryptocurrency

Political

Summary:

With the likelihood of increased volatility surrounding the U.S. election results, a buying position around the 2,300 level could be viable, particularly if a long-term bullish trend materializes.

BUY ETHFI-USDT

EXP

EXPIRED

2310.000

Entry Price

3300.000

2000.000

1.909 -0.150 -7.29%

Pips

EXPIRED

2000.000

1.529

Exit Price

2310.000

Entry Price

3300.000

In a recent November 4 filing with the SEC, Michigan's state pension fund disclosed that it holds 460,000 shares in both the Grayscale Ethereum Trust and the Ethereum Mini Trust, expanding its cryptocurrency exposure beyond its prior investments in the ARK 21Shares Bitcoin ETF. This position, recorded on September 30, marks a growing trend among U.S. pension funds, which increasingly view crypto assets as part of their long-term strategy.

Earlier in July, Michigan’s State Retirement System (SMRS) announced an initial $6.59 million investment in ARKB (ARK Invest and 21Shares’ Bitcoin ETF), which has since appreciated to roughly $6.9 million. Around that same time, Jersey City’s mayor, Steven Fulop, revealed that the city’s pension fund had begun investing in Bitcoin ETFs. This growing institutional acceptance, recently underscored by Matthew Sigel of Vaneck, points to a larger shift in financial sentiment toward cryptocurrencies as pension funds now consider them viable assets for portfolio diversification.

Michigan’s foray into Grayscale's Ethereum funds reflects a broader movement within conservative financial sectors to engage with digital assets. Other entities, such as Wisconsin’s Investment Board and the pension funds for Houston’s firefighters and Ontario’s teachers, are following similar paths. These collective moves into the digital asset market highlight a strong institutional acceptance of cryptocurrency investments, signaling that even traditionally conservative funds recognize the mainstreaming of digital assets.

Ethereum’s network received another significant boost recently when its co-founder, Vitalik Buterin, announced a fourfold reduction in Ethereum gas fees. This reduction aims to minimize transaction costs and improve network efficiency. Besides making transactions more affordable, the gas fee cut could yield several benefits, including:

Enhanced Efficiency: By lowering costs, the network can handle more transactions per second (TPS), increasing overall throughput.

Greater Accessibility: With reduced fees, Ethereum becomes more accessible to smaller-scale users, potentially attracting a broader base and encouraging wider blockchain adoption.

Smart Contract Development: Developers could see lower costs for deploying and executing contracts, fostering innovation and expanding Ethereum’s ecosystem.

These structural improvements arrive as the cryptocurrency market experiences high volatility due to the upcoming U.S. presidential elections. Voters will decide between Republican Donald Trump and Democrat Kamala Harris, with recent polls giving Trump a slight edge (58.9%) over Harris (41.1%) according to Polymarket. Trump's policy remarks have often been interpreted as favorable toward digital assets, suggesting that a Trump victory could be bullish for crypto. Institutional Buying and US Election Volatility as Catalysts for Ethereum_1

Institutional Buying and US Election Volatility as Catalysts for Ethereum_1

Technical Analysis

ETH has been trading lower, currently near 2,382 USD, with both 100- and 200-day moving averages nearby, which could act as support and prompt a potential reversal.

With the likelihood of increased volatility surrounding the U.S. election results, a buying position around the 2,300 level could be viable, particularly if a long-term bullish trend materializes. In a full bull run scenario, the target might reach toward the 3,343 level, aligning with a broader upward momentum.

If market dynamics shift with either a confirmed election outcome or a renewed interest in Ethereum.

Trading Recommendations

Trading direction: Buy

Entry price: 2310

Target price: 3300

Stop loss: 2000

Validity: Nov 15, 2024 15:00:00

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Adam

Forex

Summary:

On November 5, 2024, the price of gold (XAU/USD) traded around 2,737 USD/ounce, reflecting a slight fluctuation trend in the context of the market being affected by interest rate pressure and geopolitical factors...

BUY XAUUSD

Close Time

CLOSED

2737.00

Entry Price

2745.00

2730.00

2634.92 +18.21 +0.70%

70.0

Pips

Loss

2730.00

2729.96

Exit Price

2737.00

Entry Price

2745.00

Spot gold (XAU/USD) is trading at $2,737.23/ounce, within a range of $2,735.11 to $2,738.18. The gold market is currently being influenced by macro factors such as monetary policy pressure from the US Federal Reserve (Fed), as the organization continues to maintain high interest rates to control inflation. Along with that, geopolitical tensions in the Middle East continue to be a factor supporting gold prices as investors seek safe assets and wait for information on the US presidential election.

Market psychology

Investor sentiment remains cautious amid economic and political risks. Data from the VIX index and the accumulation trend of capital into gold ETFs show that the demand for holding gold as a hedge against risks is increasing. In the third quarter of 2024, capital into gold ETFs reached the highest level since 2020, reflecting concerns about inflation and the global economic outlook.

Technical analysis

The 15-minute chart of XAU/USD shows a period of oscillation around $2,737.23/ounce. In the recent trading session, the price fell from an intraday high of $2,738.18 to a low of $2,735.11, indicating a narrow range movement. The CCI is currently at -38, reflecting a market condition that is not yet oversold but showing that selling pressure is present. However, with the CCI gradually rising from the previous level below -100, the signal may be shifting towards a slight uptrend in the short term.

Bollinger Bands show that the gap between the two bands is gradually narrowing, indicating a decrease in volatility compared to previous sessions. The current price is moving below the 20-period moving average (blue line), which indicates that the bearish pressure is still dominant but is showing signs of slowing down as the price has not fallen to the lower band of the Bollinger Bands. This could be a signal that the market is ready to recover if it receives support.

Based on the short-term trend and technical data, the $2,735 price area can be considered as an important support level in the current scenario. If the price continues to fluctuate and establish a base at this level, a bullish move could be possible, especially if the RSI or CCI starts to exit the negative zone. The next short-term resistance level is at $2,740, where the price has failed to overcome in the past few trading sessions.

Overall, with signals from the CCI indicator starting to rise and Bollinger Bands showing signs of the market being in an accumulation state, the XAU/USD price is likely to increase slightly in the next sessions. Investors should consider placing buy orders at the current price range with a take profit level around 2,745-2,750 USD and a stop loss at 2,730 USD to limit risks.

Trading Recommendations

Based on technical analysis and fundamental factors, investors can consider the following trading strategies:

Entry: Buy at $2,737/ounce.

Take Profit: 2,745 USD/ounce.

Stop Loss: 2,730 USD/ounce.

Note: Investors should closely monitor news and macroeconomic data from the US and geopolitical factors that directly affect gold prices, in order to adjust trading strategies appropriately and preserve capital.

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Adam

Cryptocurrency

Summary:

Bitcoin (BTC) is trading around $67,000 as of November 5, 2024, after nearing its previous record high. The price surge was fueled by expectations for the outcome of the US presidential election and large inflows into Bitcoin ETFs...

BUY BTC-USDT

Close Time

CLOSED

68027.9

Entry Price

69000.0

67000.0

95711.4 -2821.5 -2.86%

1027.9

Pips

Loss

67000.0

66986.0

Exit Price

68027.9

Entry Price

69000.0

Bitcoin has gained nearly 10% over the past week, reaching $72,987, close to its record high of $73,798 set in March.

The price increase was fueled by expectations of former President Donald Trump’s victory in the upcoming election, with his pledge to establish a national Bitcoin reserve and economic policies favorable to cryptocurrencies. In addition, large capital inflows into Bitcoin ETFs, with a net increase of $917.2 million on November 1, also contributed to the increase in BTC prices.

Market psychology

Investors are currently buying Bitcoin, based on expectations of favorable monetary policies if Trump is re-elected. However, the election race remains tense, with the potential for high volatility in the short term. In addition, the increase in investment in Bitcoin ETFs shows growing confidence in the digital asset.

Technical analysis

Bitcoin tăng mạnh gần mức cao kỷ lục: Động lực và triển vọng tiếp theo_1

On the M15 chart, Bitcoin is trading above its 50-day moving average, indicating a steady uptrend. The RSI is at 70, near the overbought zone, suggesting a possible short-term correction. The strong resistance at $67,899 could be a test for BTC. If it breaks through this level, Bitcoin could aim for $69,000. Conversely, if it fails to break through, BTC could correct to the support level of $67,000.

Trading Recommendations

Given the current fundamentals and technical factors, Bitcoin buy orders are considered reasonable. However, investors need to closely monitor global economic and political developments, especially the US presidential election results and policies related to cryptocurrencies.

Entry : $68,000

Take Profit : $69,000

Stop Loss : $67,000

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Eva Chen

Economic

Forex

Summary:

A Trump victory could reduce the likelihood of a Fed rate cut, potentially benefiting the dollar.

BUY USDX

Close Time

CLOSED

103.790

Entry Price

106.130

102.300

107.950 -0.010 -0.01%

234.0

Pips

Profit

102.300

106.130

Exit Price

103.790

Entry Price

106.130

Fundamentals

US former President Donald Trump's tariff and immigration policies are expected to drive inflation, while tax cuts may lead to short-term economic growth.

Last Friday, the US 10-year Treasury yield rose to 4.40%, reaching a four-month high. If Trump wins the election and the Republicans secure control of Congress, the 10-year Treasury yield could approach 5%.

Additionally, a Republican-controlled Congress could introduce higher tariffs, potentially driving up rates, especially on the back end of the yield curve. This would lead to an increased supply of US Treasuries to cover the massive fiscal deficit, thereby pushing long-term yields higher. These factors would likely reduce the possibility of a Fed rate cut and lead to a notable and positive reaction in the dollar.

In contrast, if the Democrats win, higher taxes on businesses and high-income households may dampen economic growth. Deflation could be a concern to prompt the Fed to adopt more aggressive easing policies, which would likely push rates lower, especially on the front end of the curve, creating a bearish outlook for the dollar.

As for the Fed's policy outlook, two additional rate cuts are anticipated before the end of the year, each by 25 basis points—one this month and one in December. The Fed is more likely to slow or pause the rate-cut cycle based on inflation recovery rather than strong employment data, given its dual mandate.

Technical Analysis

The US Dollar Index (USDX), which measures the dollar's performance against a basket of major currencies, reached an 11-week high of 104.63 last week but showed bearish signals in the daily chart, suggesting that bulls may lose momentum and pause for consolidation in the near term.

Technically, the USDX may have formed a short-term top at 104.63. However, as long as the 23.6% retracement level of 100.15 to 104.63 at 103.57 holds, the consolidation phase should be relatively short. A breakout above 104.63 would resume the rally toward resistance at 106.13.

On the other hand, a decisive drop below 103.57 would open the door for a deeper correction to the 38.2% retracement level of 102.91, near the 55-day SMA (currently at 102.86).

Overall, the dollar's rebound from the 100.15 bottom appears strong yet not overwhelmingly so, which suggests the rebound could turn into an upward trend rather than just a correction. The current trajectory resembles the slow bull pattern that began in July 2023. Based on current fundamentals, this rally could push the dollar back to the 110.00 level.

Trading Recommendations

Trading Direction: Buy

Entry Price: 103.50

Target Price: 106.13

Stop Loss: 102.30

Valid Until: Nov 19, 2024 23:55:00

Support: 103.57, 103.42, 103.22

Resistance: 104.31, 104.63, 104.80

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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