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Riding the Range– Opportunities for High-Low Plays
Summary:
The Bank of Canada (BOC) lowered interest rates to 2.75%, warning that monetary policy cannot counteract the impact of the trade war.
TRADING
1.43845
Entry Price
1.41450
TP
1.46000
SL
1.44199 -0.00193 -0.13%
0.0
Pips
Flat
1.41450
TP
Exit Price
1.43845
Entry Price
1.46000
SL
Fundamentals
During Thursday's Asian session, USDCAD attracted some dip-buying around the 1.4300 level, reversing part of the previous day's losses. Although spot prices climbed to around 1.4400 in the final hour, several factors are likely to limit any meaningful upside.
The seventh consecutive rate cut of BOC overnight, coupled with the escalating trade war between the U.S. and Canada, continued to weigh on the Canadian dollar. In its statement, the central bank emphasized that rapidly changing trade policies have injected "more uncertainty than ever before" into the economic outlook.
The central bank acknowledged that the escalation of trade tensions and new tariffs imposed by the U.S. could dampen economic growth while adding to inflationary pressures. It stressed that monetary policy "cannot offset the impact of the trade war."
Nevertheless, BOC indicated its commitment to preventing sustained inflationary pressures from rising prices. Board members will closely monitor the downside pressures on inflation caused by economic weakness, as well as the upside pressures resulting from cost increases due to tariffs and other trade barriers.
Market Observations: BOC appears to be ensuring that tariffs will persist and will exert significant downside pressure on the Canadian economy. Although recent strong economic data suggested that the central bank could have paused rate cuts, past performance is irrelevant as the narrative has completely changed, incorporating the high uncertainty of the trade war. Our latest forecasts reflect a slight economic contraction, primarily because Canadian exporters will face an effective tariff rate of 12.5% for at least the next six months. This is a significant shift from the previous tariff rate of below 2%.
As long as tariff pressures remain, the Bank of Canada should maintain a dovish stance. We expect the overnight rate to reach 2.25% by June, but further upside potential is limited due to the delicate balance of managing inflation expectations.
Technical Analysis
During the day, the trend of USDCAD currently remains neutral. The price action since the high of 1.4791 is viewed as a corrective pattern, with the rebound from 1.4150 marking the second wave.
On the upside: If the price breaks above 1.4541, the trend will target 1.4629, as well as the 100% Fibonacci retracement level from 1.4238 to 1.4150. However, for now, the strong resistance at 1.4791 is expected to cap the upside and trigger a third wave of rebound.
On the downside: If the price falls below 1.4238, it will confirm that the third wave of rebound has begun through the support level at 1.4150.
Trading Recommendations
Trading Direction: Sell
Entry Price: 1.4430
Target Price: 1.4145
Stop Loss: 1.4600
Valid Until: March 28, 2025, 23:55:00
Support: 1.4355/1.4241/1.4151
Resistance: 1.4484/1.4544/1.4595
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