Silver Lagging Behind Gold, Short-Term Weakness Possible

Commodity

Summary:

Amidst the Fed's dovish stance and escalating geopolitical tensions, gold and silver have maintained a bullish trend. However, while gold prices continue to hit record highs, silver has shown signs of stalling, warranting caution about the risk of short-term consolidation and correction.

SELL XAGUSD

Close Time

CLOSED

31.100

Entry Price

29.200

31.800

29.610 +0.053 +0.18%

70.0

Pips

Loss

29.200

31.802

Exit Price

31.100

Entry Price

31.800

Fundamentals

Last week, the Fed kicked off an easing cycle by cutting rates by 50 basis points, exceeding expectations of a 25-basis-point cut. Lower interest rates reduce the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets such as gold and silver, boosting their prices to recent peaks. Concurrently, heightened geopolitical tensions in the Middle East—specifically, the escalation involving Israel and Hezbollah airstrikes—have raised concerns over a broader conflict in the region, further underpinning precious metal prices, particularly highlighting gold's traditional role as a safe-haven asset.

Given the current market conditions and the Fed's dovish posture, silver appears bullish in the short term. Yet, there's a concerning observation—the divergence between gold and silver, as gold keeps reaching new highs while silver shows signs of stagnation. The diminished correlation between the two metals is partly attributed to silver's stronger industrial component, which is affected by economic slowdowns in major Asian economies. Moreover, persistently high prices for both metals hinder consumer demand growth in Asian retail markets, signaling investors to remain aware of underlying negative factors and the risks associated with crowded long positions in the short term.

Technical Analysis

Silver Lagging Behind Gold, Short-Term Weakness Possible _1

In the weekly chart, XAGUSD oscillates at high levels. It has risen for two weeks, approaching the annual high swiftly. However, a new direction is absent before hitting a new high.

Silver Lagging Behind Gold, Short-Term Weakness Possible _2

Regarding the 4H chart, XAGUSD retains its recent bullish momentum. Breaking above 31.7 would pave the way for testing significant resistance at 32.0 and 32.5. Nevertheless, silver has been lingering near July's highs for several days without progressing further, indicating technical overbought conditions and bearish divergence, with weakening upside momentum. A pullback scenario cannot be ruled out.

It is better to stop chasing the uptrend. Investors should sell when XAGUSD reaches 31.1, and set the target at 29.0. The stop-loss should be above 31.7.

Trading Recommendations

Trading direction: Sell

Entry price: 31.1

Target price: 29.2

Stop loss: 31.8

Support: 30.0/29.0

Resistance: 31.3/32.0

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

You understand and acknowledge that there is a high degree of risk involved in trading. Following any strategies or investment methods may lead to potential losses. The content on the site is provided by our contributors and analysts for information purposes only. You are solely responsible for determining whether any trading assets, securities, strategy, or any other product is suitable for investing based on your own investment objectives and financial situation.

Add to Favorites

Adam

Forex

Summary:

As of 23/09/2024, GBP/JPY is trading at 191.157 after a strong sell signal. A clear bearish divergence on the CCI indicator coupled with a correction from the resistance near 192.50 creates a short-term selling opportunity...

SELL GBPJPY

Close Time

CLOSED

190.800

Entry Price

187.000

192.500

195.394 +0.371 +0.19%

170.0

Pips

Loss

187.000

192.500

Exit Price

190.800

Entry Price

192.500

On September 23, 2024, GBP/JPY was trading around 191.157 and showing a strong bearish correction signal. The pair bounced from the resistance zone near 192.50, but with the bearish divergence on the CCI indicator, the short-term downtrend is clearer. In addition, political and economic factors from the UK, including high inflation and concerns about the Bank of England's monetary policy, are creating selling pressure.

On the Japanese side, the Yen continued to maintain its strong position as investors turned to safe-haven assets amid global volatility. This led to further downward pressure on the GBP/JPY pair.

Market psychology

Market sentiment is bearish on GBP, driven by factors such as inflation and sluggish growth in the UK economy. Following the Bank of England’s decision to leave interest rates unchanged, investors are concerned that the possibility of persistent inflation could devalue the pound. At the same time, the Japanese market, with its stable monetary policy and conservative leanings, continues to boost the value of the Yen, pushing GBP/JPY into a short-term downtrend.

Investors are now closely monitoring developments from both countries, while global uncertainty, including geopolitical and economic factors, further strengthens the selling sentiment towards the pair.

Technical analysis

On the H1 chart, the GBP/JPY pair shows a clear bearish divergence on the CCI indicator at -133.59, signaling a strong bearish correction. The Bollinger Bands show that the price has touched the upper band and is now returning to the middle band, indicating that selling pressure is increasing.

The nearest important support level is at 190.50, if broken, the pair could continue to decline further towards 189.80. The resistance level near 192.50 remains important, and with a correction from this level, the pair could continue its downtrend in the short term.

With the appearance of bearish divergence signals from CCI and strong selling pressure, GBP/JPY is likely to continue its downtrend in the short term. Investors can consider selling orders when the price remains below 191.50, with targets at 190.50 and 189.80.

Trading Recommendations:

Entry (Order level): 190,800

Take Profit (Profit Target): 187.00

Stop Loss: 192.50

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

Add to Favorites

Manuel

Central Bank

Economic

Summary:

The price appears to have established sufficiently strong support, as it has not formed a lower low since the previous low of August 28, when it reached 1.6255.

BUY EURAUD

Close Time

CLOSED

1.63517

Entry Price

1.66300

1.62450

1.65793 +0.00304 +0.18%

106.7

Pips

Loss

1.62450

Exit Price

1.63517

Entry Price

1.66300

Fundamentals

The European Central Bank (ECB) has decided to lower interest rates by 0.25 percentage points, bringing the rate down to 3.5%. This move comes in response to decreasing inflation in the Eurozone and emerging signs that the region's economy may be stagnating.

During a recent press conference, ECB President Christine Lagarde announced that the decision to reduce the deposit rate for the second time this year was unanimous. This contrasts sharply with the previous reduction in June, where there was dissent from Austria’s central bank head, Robert Holzmann.

Some policymakers at the European Central Bank (ECB) have indicated their preference for a gradual approach to policy easing, as they seek further evidence pointing to a slowdown in inflationary pressures. This week, ECB officials, including Governing Council member Peter Kazimir, Executive Board member Isabel Schnabel, and Bundesbank President Joachim Nagel, stated that price pressures remain higher than the bank would like.

More recently, Isabel Schnabel remarked on Thursday that persistent inflation in the services sector is keeping overall inflation elevated. During European trading hours, comments from ECB Vice President Luis de Guindos also suggested that he would like to see more positive data on inflation before considering any further interest rate reductions. Guindos noted, "We will have more information in December than in October

ECB Governing Council member Gediminas Šimkus remarked on Tuesday that "the likelihood of a rate cut in October is very small." Meanwhile, ECB Chief Economist Philip Lane emphasized on Monday the need for flexibility in the pace of policy adjustments, adding that wage growth is occurring "as anticipated" and will likely remain "elevated and volatile" until the latter half of 2024. This indicates that inflation may persist at relatively high levels, leading Lane to advocate for a cautious stance regarding future rate cuts.

Turning to the Australian Dollar (AUD), it remains resilient as positive employment data from Australia has tempered market expectations for the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) to begin cutting interest rates this year. The Australian employment report for August revealed that employers added 47.5K new jobs, surpassing estimates of 25K and closely mirroring the previous figure of 48.9K, which was revised down from 58.2K.

The Australian Dollar held steady despite the People’s Bank of China (PBoC) deciding to maintain interest rates unchanged.

Despite the mixed economic outlook for Australia, the RBA's hawkish stance on inflation has led market expectations to lean towards a modest rate cut of 25 basis points in 2024. This marks a shift from the more aggressive easing cycle previously anticipated, largely due to persistent inflationary pressures. Buy Opportunity Bouncing from Key Ascending Trendline Support_1

Buy Opportunity Bouncing from Key Ascending Trendline Support_1

Technical Analysis

Currently, the Australian Dollar is trading at 1.6395, finding support around the 200-period moving average at 1.6353, which aligns with a bullish trendline originating from the low of July 7, when it fell to 1.6015. The recent local high stands at 1.7180, reached on August 4.

The price appears to have established sufficiently strong support, as it has not formed a lower low since the previous low of August 28, when it reached 1.6255. This could signal the beginning of a bullish momentum towards the 1.6630 zone, where the next significant resistance lies.

Trading Recommendations

Trading direction: Long

Entry price: 1.6390

Target price: 1.6630

Stop loss: 1.6245

Validity: Oct 03, 2024 15:00:00

Support: 1.6450, 1.6567, 1.6632

Resistance: 1.6319, 1.6289, 1.6258

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

Add to Favorites

Manuel

Central Bank

Economic

Summary:

If the resistance zone is not decisively breached, we could witness the onset of a downward impulse towards the lower range.

SELL GBPNZD

Close Time

CLOSED

2.13500

Entry Price

2.11450

2.14300

2.21120 -0.00119 -0.05%

190.3

Pips

Profit

2.11450

2.11597

Exit Price

2.13500

Entry Price

2.14300

Fundamentals

After a recent monetary policy meeting, Andrew Bailey, the Governor of the Bank of England (BoE), pointed out the importance of being cautious about making quick or significant interest rate cuts. This comment arises as inflation in the United Kingdom remains above the BoE's 2 percent target.

In the latest vote, the monetary policy committee decided by a margin of eight to one to maintain the current interest rate, opting against any immediate changes. This decision followed a narrowly supported rate cut in August. Interestingly, one committee member advocated for a reduction in the rate to 4.75% during this meeting.

According to data released by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) on Wednesday, the inflation rate in the UK remained steady at 2.2% year-over-year in August, unchanged from July. This figure is just above the BoE's inflation target but represents a significant decline from the peak of over 11% experienced at the end of 2022, which marked a four-decade high.

Additionally, retail sales data for the UK in August surpassed expectations. Retail sales, a crucial indicator of consumer spending, increased robustly by 2.5% year-over-year, outperforming initial estimates of 1.4% and surpassing the previous month’s growth of 1.5%. On a monthly basis, retail sales rose by 1%, well above the expected 0.4% increase and significantly higher than the 0.5% growth recorded in July.

Meanwhile, the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) has strengthened in response to better-than-expected Gross Domestic Product (GDP) data for the second quarter. New Zealand’s economy contracted by 0.2% after a modest expansion of 0.1% in the previous quarter. Notably, this contraction was less severe than anticipated, with forecasts predicting a decline of 0.4%.

Looking ahead, investors are keenly awaiting the interest rate decision from the People's Bank of China (PBoC), set to be announced on Friday. Given that New Zealand is one of China’s largest trading partners, a moderate decision from the PBoC could further bolster the NZD.

Selling Opportunities in GBPNZD From the Upper Range Bound_1

Technical Analysis

Currently, the GBPNZD pair is trading at 2.133 after rejecting resistance near 2.13560, having reached an intraday high of 2.1368. This price action has produced a candle pattern indicative of a potential reversal. If the resistance zone is not decisively breached, we could witness the onset of a downward impulse towards the lower range.

The 100-period and 200-period moving averages are situated around 2.1230, making this zone an attractive entry point for traders. Furthermore, the highest price reached in the current range on August 22 has yet to be closed by any candlestick, suggesting that new local highs have not been established. If new lows materialize, we may observe a bearish breakout.

Conversely, should we witness a bullish breakout, buying momentum could carry the price towards the 2.150 mark, offering traders potential opportunities for profit.

Trading Recommendations

Trading direction: Short

Entry price: 2.1350

Target price: 2.1145

Stop loss: 2.1430

Validity: Sep 27, 2024 15:00:00

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

Add to Favorites

Adam

Commodity

Summary:

WTI crude oil prices are trading around 71.137, with bullish signals after hitting a short-term bottom at 70.00. Technical data and indicators suggest long-term buying potential, with a possible price target of 72.50 if the bullish momentum continues...

BUY WTI

EXP

EXPIRED

71.137

Entry Price

73.000

70.000

1.760 -0.020 -1.12%

Pips

EXPIRED

70.000

2.015

Exit Price

71.137

Entry Price

73.000

On September 20, 2024, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil was trading at 71.137 after a correction to 70.00 . This is considered a strong support level in the oil market, and prices have bounced from this level as fundamentals remain supportive of the long-term growth trend. Oil prices are supported by stable global energy demand, while geopolitical factors and adverse weather in key oil-producing regions also play a role in supporting oil prices.

The crude oil market is now awaiting further stimulus from the upcoming OPEC+ meetings as well as the oil production situation in the US and the Middle East. Analysts predict that without a significant increase in supply, global energy demand will continue to remain stable, helping WTI maintain its upward momentum.

Market psychology

The current market sentiment is quite positive for WTI crude oil, with expectations that supportive supply and demand factors will help oil prices continue to rise. Investor sentiment has improved after oil prices bounced from the 70.00 support level, and the Stochastic Oscillator indicator on the chart shows that the market has moved out of oversold territory, signaling potential growth.

Fundamentals also support the recovery in oil prices, especially as recent global economic data shows recovery in major economies, thereby boosting energy demand.

Technical analysis

The H1 chart of WTI crude oil shows that the price has bounced from 70.00, with support from the Bollinger Bands indicator. The current price is approaching the middle line of the Bollinger Bands, signaling a recovery. The Stochastic Oscillator is also showing a buy signal, at 77.10, indicating that the market is moving out of the oversold zone.

Ichimoku Cloud shows that WTI is starting to move above the cloud, signaling that the uptrend could continue. Strong support near 70.00 is still holding, and if WTI continues to break above the resistance at 71.50, the price could rise to the 72.50 area or higher.

The next resistance level to watch is 72.50, while the important support level continues to be 70.00. If the price holds above this level, the possibility of long-term growth is very high.

Given the current technical and fundamental factors, the WTI uptrend is likely to continue in the long term. Investors can consider buying orders when the price remains above 71.00, with a short-term target of 72.50 and a long-term target of 73.00.

Trading Recommendations

Entry (Order level): 71,137

Take Profit: 72.50 and 73.00

Stop Loss: 70.00

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

Add to Favorites

Adam

Forex

Summary:

On 20/09/2024, the AUD/USD pair was trading around 0.67980 after experiencing a short-term decline and bouncing from the 0.6785 support zone. With selling pressure easing...

BUY AUDUSD

Close Time

CLOSED

0.67980

Entry Price

0.68500

0.67700

0.62112 +0.00088 +0.14%

52.0

Pips

Profit

0.67700

0.68500

Exit Price

0.67980

Entry Price

0.68500

On September 20, 2024, the AUD/USD pair was trading around 0.67980, showing signs of recovery after a sharp decline to 0.6785. Despite the previous strong volatility due to the impact of the Fed's interest rate decision and global economic factors, the market is currently showing short-term stability. The AUD is supported by signs of recovery from the Australian economy, especially from manufacturing and export indicators. In addition, the weakness of the USD after the Fed's interest rate cut decision continues to facilitate the AUD's upward momentum.

Market psychology

The current market sentiment is bullish for AUD/USD. Investors believe that the stability of the Australian economy, along with the interest rate cuts from the US, will continue to support the AUD in the short term. Demand for commodities from China – Australia’s major trading partner – is also showing signs of recovery, providing further support for the currency. At the same time, investors expect that under current conditions, the USD will continue to weaken, especially if the Fed shows a more dovish stance on monetary policy.

Technical analysis

Tín hiệu mua AUD/USD vì triển vọng tăng ngắn hạn sau đợt điều chỉnh_1

On the M15 chart, AUD/USD is showing signs of recovery from the 0.6785 support level and is currently trading around 0.67980. The Bollinger Bands show that the price is breaking out of the lower band and moving up near the middle band, signaling a short-term bullish reversal. The CCI is also trending up from the oversold level of -49.72, suggesting that the market has the potential for a stronger recovery.

If AUD/USD stays above 0.6785, there is a possibility of further upside towards the resistance at 0.6830 and above that at 0.6850. However, if the price breaks below the support, a deeper correction towards 0.6770 is possible, but the probability is low due to positive technical signals.

Based on the current technical indicators, the AUD/USD uptrend may continue in the short term. Traders should consider buying when the price remains above 0.6785, with targets at 0.6830 and 0.6850. However, attention should be paid to the important support level at 0.6785, if broken, the uptrend may be reversed.

Trading Recommendations:

Entry (Order level): 0.67980

Take Profit: 0.6830 and 0.6850

Stop Loss: 0.6770

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

Add to Favorites

Alan

Forex

Central Bank

Summary:

The Fed announced a rate cut, and the dollar entered a depreciation cycle. Canada's domestic economy is sending optimistic signals and the Canadian dollar is expected to strengthen. USDCAD will continue to decline as the technical rally comes under pressure.

SELL USDCAD

Close Time

CLOSED

1.35694

Entry Price

1.32800

1.36600

1.44432 +0.00412 +0.29%

2.2

Pips

Profit

1.32800

1.35672

Exit Price

1.35694

Entry Price

1.36600

Fundamentals

On 18 September, the Fed announced a 50bp cut in the target range for the federal funds rate to between 4.75% and 5%. This is the Fed's first rate cut since March 2020, and it also means that the Fed has begun to shift from a monetary policy tightening cycle to an easing cycle. At the same time, this rate cut represents a weakening of the dollar.

Looking at Canada, Canada's retail sales are likely to surge in August after strong growth in July. This indicates a strong rebound in retail sales after two consecutive quarters of shrinking sales. Compared to the latest GDP figures, the report sends a more optimistic signal about the strength of Canada's economy. According to Canada's latest GDP data, economic growth stalled in June and July. The data is likely to give central bankers more confidence that they can tame inflation without tipping the economy into a recession.

Overall, the dollar was forced to depreciate due to the Fed's rate cuts. The Canadian dollar is expected to strengthen, which has benefited from positive signals from the domestic economy. As a result, USDCAD is likely to weaken.

Technical Analysis

As the Pair Is Bearish, Continue to Short After the Rebound_1

Trading on the daily chart, USDCAD broke the upward channel from the end of last year to August this year and began to rebound after falling to support at 1.3440. At present, the price has rebounded below the platform of 1.3600, which was broken in the previous period, forming a strong pressure level. At the same time, the 1.3600 pressure level has not been effectively broken through for 9 consecutive trading days, indicating that the resistance is relatively strong. The market sentiment is gradually turning bearish.

At present, the short-term trend of USDCAD is biased towards the downside. Currently, you should pay attention to whether the asset will fall below 1.3440. If it breaks, the first target will fall to 1.3280. Traders are advised to go short at high.

Trading Recommendations

Trading Direction: Sell

Entry Price: 1.3580

Target Price: 1.3280

Stop Loss: 1.3660

Deadline: Oct. 4, 2024, 15:00:00

Support: 1.3531/1.3510/1.3439

Resistance: 1.3575/1.3599/1.3646

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

Add to Favorites

Daily News

Remarks of Officials

Central Bank

Forex

FastBull Events

FastBull Featured

Devin

Mohammad Omar

Recent Searches

Top Searches

Markets

News

Analysis

User

24/7

Economic Calendar

Education

Data

Silver Lagging Behind Gold, Short-Term Weakness Possible

Fundamentals

Technical Analysis

Trading Recommendations

GBP/JPY faces downward pressure

Market psychology

Technical analysis

Trading Recommendations:

Buy Opportunity Bouncing from Key Ascending Trendline Support

Fundamentals

Technical Analysis

Selling Opportunities in GBPNZD From the Upper Range Bound

Technical Analysis

WTI rebounds after correction

Market psychology

Technical analysis

Trading Recommendations

AUD/USD Buy Signal on Short-Term Upside Prospects After Correction

Market psychology

Technical analysis

Trading Recommendations:

As the Pair Is Bearish, Continue to Short After the Rebound

Fundamentals

Technical Analysis

Trading Recommendations

Risk Disclosure