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Temporary Pullback Fuels Bullish Momentum
Summary:
Last Friday, the US October non-farm payrolls data significantly undershot expectations, making a Fed rate cut in November a foregone conclusion, which could potentially support further upside for gold.
CLOSED
2738.78
Entry Price
2835.00
TP
2695.00
SL
2624.10 +7.39 +0.28%
437.8
Pips
Loss
2695.00
SL
2694.85
Exit Price
2738.78
Entry Price
2835.00
TP
Fundamentals
Last Friday, the US Department of Labor released the October non-farm employment report. The report indicated that the US added 12,000 non-farm jobs in October, significantly lower than the expected 113,000. The previous figure was also revised down from 254,000 to 223,000. The substantial miss in non-farm employment data reflects a slowing trend in the US labor market. Concurrently, this weakness may amplify market concerns about US economic growth, thereby increasing the safe-haven demand for gold.
Post the non-farm report, the next key events to watch are Tuesday's US Presidential Election and Friday's interest rate decision meeting of the Fed.
In terms of the US Presidential Election, the outcome between Trump or Harris remains uncertain. This political uncertainty allows the safe-haven properties of the gold to shine. Attention should be paid to how the election results will impact subsequent fiscal policies in the US.
Regarding the rate decision meeting, the significant miss in non-farm data has made a November rate cut by the Fed a foregone conclusion. Expectations for a substantial rate cut in December are also rising. The latest data from the CME Fed Watch indicates a 98.9% probability of a 25 bps rate cut in November, a 1.1% chance of holding the current rate steady, a 17.1% probability of a cumulative 25 bps rate cut by December, and an 82.7% probability of a cumulative 50 bps rate cut. This could potentially support a continued rise in gold prices.
Technical Analysis
From a daily chart perspective, gold remains in a bullish trend. However, due to the excessive price increase in the previous period, most profit-taking buyers have chosen to lock in their profits, driving gold to initiate a short-term consolidation phase.
Looking at the 4-hour chart, after reaching a record high of $2789.94 last Thursday, gold faced pressure below the Fibonacci 1.618 extension level at $2790.64 and began a significant correction, with a drop exceeding $50.
Currently, there are signs that gold prices are stabilizing near $2730. If the price continues to decline, it may test the previous low of $2708.59. In the short term, the gold price trend is more inclined towards consolidation, but gold is still in a bullish trend. Therefore, traders are advised to focus on going long at lows.
Trading Recommendations
Trading Direction: Buy
Entry Price: 2735.00
Target Price: 2835.00
Stop Loss: 2695.00
Deadline: November 18, 2024, 15:00:00
Support: 2730.10/2708.59/2685.48
Resistance: 2762.13/2778.24/2789.94
Risk Warnings and Disclaimers
You understand and acknowledge that there is a high degree of risk involved in trading. Following any strategies or investment methods may lead to potential losses. The content on the site is provided by our contributors and analysts for information purposes only. You are solely responsible for determining whether any trading assets, securities, strategy, or any other product is suitable for investing based on your own investment objectives and financial situation.
On the M15 chart, GBP/JPY is trading above its 50-day moving average, indicating a steady uptrend. The RSI is at 60, not yet in overbought territory, indicating room for further upside. However, the strong resistance at 198.00 could be a test for the pair. If it can break through this level, GBP/JPY could aim for 200.00. Conversely, if it fails to break through, the pair could correct to the support level at 196.00.
On the daily chart, AUD/JPY is trading above its 50-day moving average, indicating a steady uptrend. The RSI is at 60, not yet in overbought territory, suggesting room for further upside. However, the strong resistance at 101.00 could be a test for the pair. If it breaks above this level, AUD/JPY could target 102.50. Conversely, if it fails to break above this level, the pair could correct to the support level of 99.50.
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