Trump 2.0 Era Commences, Boosting Risk Appetite in US Equities

Winkelmann

Stocks

Summary:

Donald Trump held off from imposing new tariffs on his first day in office, which has catalyzed a rebound in US stocks.

BUY USNDAQ100

Close Time

CLOSED

21399.95

Entry Price

22200.00

20900.00

21715.85 +73.40 +0.34%

3306.5

Pips

Profit

20900.00

21730.60

Exit Price

21399.95

Entry Price

22200.00

Fundamentals

Prior to Trump's inauguration, market participants had anticipated that his proposed trade tariffs would exert significant pressure on the global economy and financial markets. Concerns also centered around his tax cut policies, which were expected to widen the fiscal deficit, coupled with the re-emergence of the government's debt ceiling issue. Additionally, the Fed's potential slowdown in rate cuts has led to a notable market adjustment in recent times.

With Trump's second official inauguration, this highly anticipated political event has finally concluded. Contrary to market expectations, Trump's inaugural address did not introduce any new content. More critically, on his first day in office, Trump did not immediately impose new tariffs. He said that he was not yet ready to implement a broad-based tariff. Reports suggest that any new taxes would be levied in a "moderate" manner. This has provided some relief to the anxious market, leading to a rise in risk appetite and a short-term boost to US stocks.

As the new president and administration signify a fresh start, optimism among traders regarding the US economic outlook has increased in the short term. Last week, major Wall Street banks released largely strong earnings reports, which have undoubtedly heightened market expectations for the upcoming US earnings season. This is favorable for further gains in US stocks in the near term, with the Nasdaq Composite, dominated by tech stocks, likely to continue leading the upward trend.

Technical Analysis

On the 4-hour chart, US stocks remain in a long-term bull market. Recently, the Nasdaq 100 (NDQ100) has continued to consolidate at high levels. After finding support from the ascending trend line, the NDQ100 has rebounded and broken above its recent descending trend line. Currently, the NDQ100 has completed a support confirmation and is biased towards further upside movement in the short term, with the potential to reach new highs.

Traders are advised to adopt a strategy of buying on dips, with a focus on entering long positions around the price level of 21,400. The target price should be set near 22,200, with a stop-loss placed below 21,000.

Trading Recommendations

Trading Direction: Buy

Entry Price: 21400

Target Price: 22200

Stop Loss: 20900

Support: 21000/20800

Resistance: 21880/22200

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

You understand and acknowledge that there is a high degree of risk involved in trading. Following any strategies or investment methods may lead to potential losses. The content on the site is provided by our contributors and analysts for information purposes only. You are solely responsible for determining whether any trading assets, securities, strategy, or any other product is suitable for investing based on your own investment objectives and financial situation.

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Adam

Forex

Summary:

On January 20, 2025, the CAD/CHF currency pair was trading around 0.6317. This fluctuation was influenced by the monetary policies of the Bank of Canada and the Swiss National Bank, along with the global oil price developments. In the coming period, the trend of CAD/CHF may continue to be influenced by macroeconomic and technical factors...

BUY CADCHF

Close Time

CLOSED

0.63399

Entry Price

0.63800

0.62500

0.63186 +0.00012 +0.02%

11.3

Pips

Loss

0.62500

0.63286

Exit Price

0.63399

Entry Price

0.63800

As of January 20, 2025, the CAD/CHF exchange rate is trading around 0.6317. The market is being influenced by the monetary policies of the Bank of Canada (BoC) and the Swiss National Bank (SNB). The BoC maintained its interest rate at 1.75%, while the SNB kept its interest rate at -0.75%, in order to support the economy amid slowing global growth. Oil prices, one of Canada's main exports, have fallen by 5% over the past month, negatively affecting the CAD.

Market psychology

The current market sentiment reflects investor caution in the face of global economic uncertainty. The VIX, a measure of expected volatility in the U.S. stock market, rose to 20, reflecting increased concerns. Investors sought safe-haven assets such as the Swiss franc, causing it to appreciate against the Canadian dollar.

Technical analysis

CAD/CHF trend may continue to be dominated_1

On the daily chart of the CAD/CHF currency pair, key technical indicators are providing important signals about the price trend. The 5-day exponential moving average (EMA) is currently at 0.63317, while the 10-day EMA is at 0.63151, suggesting a slight bullish bias in the short term.

However, the 20-day EMA is at 0.62962 and the 50-day EMA is at 0.62835, reflecting a medium-term bearish bias. The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at 61.95, in the neutral zone but trending towards overbought territory, suggesting a potential downside correction in the near future.

The Stochastic %K (14, 3, 3) indicator is at 86.13, in the overbought zone, reinforcing the possibility of a downside correction. The 20-day Commodity Channel Index (CCI) is at 136.13, indicating that the price is at a higher level than the average, which could lead to selling pressure. Taking these signals together, although there are signs of a short-term increase, selling pressure could increase, leading to the possibility of a downside correction in the near term.

Trading Recommendations

Based on fundamental and technical analysis, investors can consider the following levels:

Entry: 0,6340

Take Profit: 0,6380

Stop Loss: 0,6250

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Adam

Forex

Summary:

On 20/01/2025, the EUR/AUD market experienced notable volatility with factors such as the monetary policy of the European Central Bank (ECB) and the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) influencing it. In the coming period, the trend of EUR/AUD may continue to be influenced by interest rate decisions and the global economic situation....

BUY EURAUD

Close Time

CLOSED

1.66301

Entry Price

1.66600

1.65500

1.66312 +0.00131 +0.08%

29.9

Pips

Profit

1.65500

1.66609

Exit Price

1.66301

Entry Price

1.66600

On January 20, 2025, the EUR/AUD exchange rate was trading around 1.6579. The market is being influenced by the monetary policies of the ECB and RBA. The ECB is expected to cut interest rates this year, with inflation expected to fall to its 2% target by mid-year. Meanwhile, the RBA is facing pressure to tighten monetary policy to control inflation, especially as the Australian labor market shows signs of cooling.

Market psychology

Current market sentiment reflects concerns about the global economic outlook and monetary policy. Investors are seeking safety in defensive assets such as gold and bonds. Trading data shows that large investors are adjusting positions and moving away from risky assets such as cryptocurrencies and stocks.

Technical analysis

EUR/AUD Surges: Will the Uptrend Continue?_1

On the EUR/AUD chart, the price is hovering near the support at 1.6550 and the resistance at 1.6660. The RSI (14) is at 49.672, indicating a neutral market. The Stochastic (9.6) is at 21.141, in the oversold zone, suggesting a possible bullish reversal in the short term. The Bollinger Bands show that the price is approaching the lower band, suggesting a possible bounce from this support zone.

The Ichimoku Kinko Hyo indicator shows that the price is currently below the cloud, indicating a medium-term downtrend. The MA5 moving average is at 1.6578 (buy signal), MA10 is at 1.6591 (sell signal), MA20 is at 1.6593 (sell signal), MA50 is at 1.6574 (buy signal), MA100 is at 1.6586 (sell signal), and MA200 is at 1.6603 (sell signal). The divergence between the short-term and long-term MAs indicates uncertainty in the current trend.

Trading Recommendations

Entry: Buy at 1.663, based on buy signal from Stochastic indicator and position near support level.

Take Profit: Set take profit at 1.666 near important resistance level.

Stop Loss: Set a stop loss at 1.655 to manage risk in case the market moves against your prediction.

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Adam

Forex

Summary:

The USD/JPY pair is trading around 155.98, reflecting the Japanese Yen's appreciation ahead of the inauguration of US President Donald Trump. Factors such as the US's new trade policy and the possibility of the Bank of Japan (BoJ) raising interest rates are strongly affecting this currency pair...

BUY USDJPY

Close Time

CLOSED

156.000

Entry Price

157.000

155.000

155.854 +0.372 +0.24%

100.0

Pips

Loss

155.000

Exit Price

156.000

Entry Price

157.000

On January 20, 2025, the USD/JPY exchange rate was trading at 155.98, indicating a rise in the value of the Japanese Yen against the US Dollar. The move was largely driven by expectations of trade policy from the new Trump administration and the possibility of a rate hike by the BoJ this week. According to Reuters, the BoJ is expected to raise its policy rate this week, sending short-term borrowing costs to levels not seen since the 2008 global financial crisis.

Market psychology

Investors are cautious about the uncertainty surrounding U.S. trade policy. Despite reports that President Trump will not impose new tariffs on his first day in office, the market remains concerned about the possibility of future trade measures. Dow Jones futures rose after reports that Trump would not impose new tariffs on his first day in office, reflecting investor optimism, according to MarketWatch.

Technical analysis

Japanese Yen Gains Ahead of Trump Inauguration: Will USD/JPY Continue to Fall?_1

On the daily chart, USD/JPY is hovering near a key support level at 154.98, a one-month high. The RSI (14) is at 49.78, indicating a neutral market. The EMA (5) is at 156.40, presenting a mild buy signal. However, the CCI (20) is at -135.93, presenting a strong sell signal. The conflicting technical indicators suggest that the market could remain volatile in the short term.

Trading Recommendations

Entry: 156

Take Profit: 157

Stop Loss: 155

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Adam

Economic

Forex

Summary:

On January 20, 2025, the AUD/USD exchange rate was trading around 0.6213, reflecting the weakening of the Australian Dollar ahead of the inauguration of US President Donald Trump. Factors such as new trade policies and the global economic outlook are strongly influencing this currency pair...

SELL AUDUSD

Close Time

CLOSED

0.62572

Entry Price

0.62000

0.62800

0.62557 -0.00164 -0.26%

22.8

Pips

Loss

0.62000

0.62802

Exit Price

0.62572

Entry Price

0.62800

On January 20, 2025, the AUD/USD exchange rate was trading at 0.6213, indicating a weakening of the Australian Dollar against the US Dollar. This decline was largely due to expectations of tough trade policies from the new administration of President Donald Trump, including the imposition of 25% tariffs on imports from Canada and Mexico, and 10% on Chinese goods. These measures could negatively impact global trade, especially export-dependent economies like Australia.

Market psychology

Investors are cautious about the uncertainties surrounding US trade policy. Despite positive signs from the call between President Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping, the market remains concerned about the possibility of an escalation in trade tensions. The VIX volatility index rose slightly, reflecting investors’ concerns about market volatility in the near term.

Technical analysis

On the chart, AUD/USD is hovering near key support at 0.6131, the lowest level since April 2020. The RSI is showing oversold signals, suggesting a short-term recovery. However, the main trend remains bearish, with the nearest resistance at 0.6300. A break below the 0.6131 support level could open the way for a deeper decline towards 0.6000.

Trading Recommendations:

Entry: 0,6240

Take Profit: 0,6200

Stop Loss: 0,6280

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Warren Takunda

Economic

Summary:

USD/CAD rises sharply to nearly 1.4430, driven by investor caution ahead of President-elect Donald Trump’s return to the White House and the potential for heightened trade tensions with Canada.

BUY USDCAD

Close Time

CLOSED

1.44700

Entry Price

1.46500

1.43700

1.43483 +0.00269 +0.19%

100.0

Pips

Loss

1.43700

1.43686

Exit Price

1.44700

Entry Price

1.46500

the USD/CAD pair surged sharply, climbing to near 1.4430 in Friday's North American session, as market participants remain increasingly cautious. This rise comes amid heightened uncertainty surrounding US President-elect Donald Trump's impending return to the White House on Monday, and the possibility of significant trade policy shifts that could negatively impact the Canadian economy.

At the heart of market concerns lies the potential for Trump to implement his planned tariff increases, which have already drawn attention to the possibility of a global trade war. On the heels of his re-election, many expect Trump's first major economic move to involve the release of a new tariff policy, with an anticipated 25% tariff hike on US imports. Canada, as one of the largest trading partners of the United States, is particularly vulnerable to these changes. If implemented, the tariffs could lead to a 2% increase in costs for Canadian exports to the US, which would likely weigh on Canada's economic growth and have broader ripple effects on the country's business environment.

The economic uncertainty stemming from the tariff threat has caused investors to reassess Canada's economic outlook, with analysts projecting that the Bank of Canada (BoC) may be forced to adopt more dovish measures in the face of mounting pressure. Derek Holt, an economist at Scotiabank, warned that significant tariffs on Canadian exports could trigger deflationary pressures, prompting the BoC to ease its policy further. “If Canada gets hit with large tariffs and they don't retaliate, then the disinflationary effects would likely prompt considerably more easing by the Bank of Canada,” Holt said. This expectation of a rate cut is supported by recent polling, which indicates a near certainty that the BoC will reduce its key interest rate by 25 basis points (bps) to 3% during its next scheduled meeting in January.

Meanwhile, the US Dollar has been climbing higher, bolstered by investor sentiment that the Federal Reserve could ease its restrictive monetary policy more than anticipated. The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback's value against a basket of six major currencies, reached 109.15, indicating a firm upward bias for the dollar. This strength is largely attributed to a recent softening of inflation pressures in the United States. Data from the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) for December showed a surprising deceleration in core inflation, reinforcing traders’ expectations that the Fed could pursue more dovish measures to support the US economy. As inflation slows and economic growth faces uncertainty, the central bank may consider cutting interest rates at a faster pace than previously expected.

The weakening of the Canadian Dollar (CAD) has also played a crucial role in the recent bullish run for the USD/CAD currency pair. With traders remaining cautious and the BoC expected to lower rates, the Canadian Dollar has been on the back foot, further pushing the currency pair toward its recent highs.

Technical Analysis

The technical outlook for USD/CAD remains strongly bullish, with the pair successfully reaching its initial target of 1.4467 and attempting to break through this level in the current trading environment. If the pair manages to break above 1.4467, the next key resistance level will be at 1.4650, providing a potential target for the bullish momentum to extend. The positive influence of the 50-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA) on the chart adds to the optimism for the continuation of the upward trend.

However, a failure to maintain the bullish trajectory could see the pair face some correction. A break below the 1.4335 support level would indicate a potential reversal in market sentiment, with the pair likely to test the 1.4220 zone before any further upward attempts. As such, the market remains highly sensitive to developments surrounding Trump's upcoming tariff announcements, and any signs of easing trade tensions or aggressive actions from the US could send the Canadian Dollar into further weakness.

For the day ahead, the expected trading range for USD/CAD is between the 1.4390 support level and the 1.4525 resistance level. Given the technical setup and the ongoing fundamental headwinds facing the Canadian economy, the bias remains strongly bullish for USD/CAD in the short term.

TRADE RECOMMENDATION

BUY USDCAD

ENTRY PRICE: 1.4470

STOP LOSS: 1.4370

TAKE PROFIT: 1.4650

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Warren Takunda

Cryptocurrency

Summary:

Bitcoin’s price has surged to a new all-time high of $109,588, driven by bullish sentiment, increased institutional participation, and anticipation of President-elect Donald Trump’s inauguration.

BUY BTC-USDT

Close Time

CLOSED

107976.6

Entry Price

118000.0

102000.0

105410.6 +1456.4 +1.40%

5976.6

Pips

Loss

102000.0

101967.7

Exit Price

107976.6

Entry Price

118000.0

Bitcoin (BTC) has surged to a new all-time high of $109,588 on Monday, marking a significant milestone in its remarkable rally. This surge follows a series of factors that have contributed to a surge in both retail and institutional interest in the cryptocurrency. Notably, the upcoming inauguration of President-elect Donald Trump is being viewed as a key event that could trigger further gains, as crypto traders expect both volatility and bullish momentum in the short term.

The ascent of Bitcoin beyond $100,000 is not only a reflection of its growing adoption but also an indication of the deepening enthusiasm among investors. As the price touched the $109,588 mark, Bitcoin’s open interest crossed a monumental $71 billion, signaling a marked increase in market participation. The crypto market is beginning to heat up as traders position themselves for potential profits in anticipation of significant price movements.

One of the most noteworthy aspects of Bitcoin’s recent rally is the increased demand for leveraged positions. Traders are embracing upside leverage as they position themselves for further price appreciation, buoyed by the growing sentiment that Bitcoin is entering a phase of price discovery. As a result, Bitcoin’s volatility has surged to 73%, indicating a high level of market uncertainty but also a pronounced appetite for risk among traders.

The rapid climb in Bitcoin’s price has triggered the formation of a new bullish trend, with many speculating that the inauguration of President-elect Donald Trump could act as a key catalyst for continued gains in the cryptocurrency market. In the run-up to the event, crypto enthusiasts are betting on the continuation of upward price action, positioning for a stronger long-term trajectory.

Bitcoin’s rally is also a direct reflection of its ongoing institutional adoption. After a somewhat volatile 2024, institutional investors have returned to the space, bolstering liquidity and reinforcing the perception that Bitcoin is increasingly being recognized as a legitimate asset class. The fact that Bitcoin has reached its current levels is a testament to the asset’s maturing infrastructure, which is now able to handle the influx of institutional capital with greater ease.

Technical Analysis

Technical indicators support the view that Bitcoin is set to continue its rise. The cryptocurrency successfully breached its previous target of $108,350, clearing the way for further upward movement. As Bitcoin approaches the psychological barrier of $110,000, we are watching closely for signs of any short-term pullbacks or corrections. However, experts suggest that the path is now clear for the cryptocurrency to potentially test higher targets, with some forecasting a potential price of $118,000.

At present, the immediate support for Bitcoin is seen at $106,500, with resistance pegged at $111,000. A break below the $104,900 level would bring the price under negative pressure, possibly leading to a retracement toward the $98,930 support zone. However, given the current bullish sentiment and the anticipated influence of upcoming events, the longer-term outlook for Bitcoin remains positive.

TRADE RECOMMENDATION

BUY BITCOIN

ENTRY PRICE: 108000

STOP LOSS: 102000

TAKE PROFIT: 118000

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Trump 2.0 Era Commences, Boosting Risk Appetite in US Equities

Fundamentals

Technical Analysis

Trading Recommendations

CAD/CHF trend may continue to be dominated

Market psychology

Technical analysis

Trading Recommendations

EUR/AUD Surges: Will the Uptrend Continue?

Market psychology

Technical analysis

Trading Recommendations

Japanese Yen Gains Ahead of Trump Inauguration: Will USD/JPY Continue to Fall?

Market psychology

Technical analysis

Australian Dollar Weakens Ahead of Trump Inauguration

Market psychology

Technical analysis

USD/CAD Rallies Amid Market Caution Ahead of Trump’s Inauguration and Potential Tariff Hikes

Bitcoin Reaches New Heights, Surpassing $109,000 as Traders Brace for Market Volatility Ahead of Trump’s Inauguration

Technical Analysis

Risk Disclosure