USD/CAD Slips Below Key Level as Canadian Dollar Rises Amid Trade Hopes and Economic Data

Warren Takunda

Economic

Summary:

USD/CAD edges lower as optimism around U.S.-Canada trade negotiations supports the Canadian Dollar

SELL USDCAD

Close Time

CLOSED

1.40000

Entry Price

1.38500

1.41500

1.43931 +0.00457 +0.32%

12.2

Pips

Profit

1.38500

1.39878

Exit Price

1.40000

Entry Price

1.41500

The USD/CAD pair slipped below the critical 1.4000 level in European trading on Thursday, weighed down by a strengthening Canadian Dollar (CAD) as traders positioned for potential progress in U.S.-Canada trade negotiations. This dip came despite a modest recovery in the U.S. Dollar (USD), which saw limited action due to the Thanksgiving holiday in the U.S.

Market sentiment surrounding the Canadian Dollar improved after comments from U.S. President-elect Donald Trump, who threatened to impose a 25% tariff on imports from Canada and Mexico. While such protectionist rhetoric often rattles markets, analysts view this as a tactical move aimed at renegotiating the existing free trade agreements between the three countries.

“Targeting both countries suggests the threat was likely a strategic opening move in renegotiating the existing free trade agreement between the three nations,” said analysts at AscendantFX.

Trade negotiations will be pivotal for Canada, given its heavy reliance on energy exports to the U.S. Any significant trade restrictions could dent foreign inflows into the Canadian economy, potentially weighing on the CAD in the long run. However, for now, optimism around a favorable deal has bolstered the currency.

Investors are closely watching Canada’s upcoming third-quarter GDP report, due Friday. Economists forecast a 1% annualized growth rate, a marked slowdown from the 2.1% expansion seen in the previous quarter. A softer print could temper the CAD’s recent strength, especially if trade tensions escalate.

The Bank of Canada (BoC) has maintained a cautious stance, noting external risks, including U.S. trade policy, as potential headwinds. A weaker-than-expected GDP figure may add to speculation that the BoC will delay further tightening, adding pressure on the CAD.

Despite the Loonie’s gains, the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the greenback against a basket of major currencies, edged up to 106.40. The move came amid thin trading volumes due to Thanksgiving. Markets remain focused on the Federal Reserve’s next policy meeting in December, where expectations for a 25 basis point rate cut are rising.

The CME FedWatch tool indicates a 70% probability of a rate cut, with markets pricing in a reduction to 4.25%-4.50%. While the Fed has hinted at maintaining a data-dependent approach, any dovish tilt could further weigh on the USD, providing additional support for USD/CAD bears.

Technical Analysis

USD/CAD has broken below its rising channel, signaling a shift in market sentiment from bullish to bearish. The pair is now testing the critical 1.4000 psychological level, which also coincides with the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement of the recent uptrend originating from 1.3420. A decisive move below this threshold could confirm a deeper correction, setting the stage for further downside movement toward 1.3850. This lower support level holds significant technical importance, as it marks a previous consolidation zone and aligns with deeper Fibonacci retracement levels, making it a potential target for bearish traders.

If buyers manage to defend the 1.4000 level, any recovery will likely face initial resistance around 1.4045. A break above this point would negate the bearish outlook and signal a potential return to the broader bullish trend. Should the pair climb beyond this resistance, further gains could extend towards the next hurdle at 1.4080. However, until such a breakout occurs, the prevailing momentum remains tilted to the downside, with sellers maintaining control of the market.

The bearish trend will likely persist unless a decisive move above 1.4045 shifts momentum back in favor of bulls.

TRADE RECOMMENDATION

SELL USDCAD

ENTRY PRICE: 1.400

STOP LOSS: 1.4150

TAKE PROFIT: 1.3850

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Warren Takunda

Economic

Summary:

The euro eased from weekly highs on Thursday as investors took profits ahead of key inflation data from Spain and Germany.

BUY EURUSD

Close Time

CLOSED

1.05373

Entry Price

1.07420

1.04500

1.03985 +0.00075 +0.07%

44.9

Pips

Profit

1.04500

1.05822

Exit Price

1.05373

Entry Price

1.07420

The euro slipped during European trading on Thursday, retreating from its recent highs against the U.S. dollar as traders capitalized on gains. This pullback came ahead of key inflation reports from Spain and Germany, crucial indicators that could significantly influence the European Central Bank’s (ECB) policy decisions in the coming weeks.

After rallying sharply on Wednesday, the EUR/USD pair declined by 0.2%, trading around $1.0547. Earlier in the session, the pair had touched an intraday peak of $1.0569, before succumbing to selling pressure. This decline marked a reversal from Wednesday's impressive 0.75% gain, the largest single-day increase since early August, which pushed the pair to a weekly high of $1.0587.

This week's rally in the euro has been driven in part by comments from Isabel Schnabel, a key member of the ECB’s Executive Board. In an interview with Bloomberg, Schnabel emphasized that any potential interest rate cuts should proceed gradually, allowing the central bank to assess its monetary policy stance carefully. Her remarks underscored a cautious approach, with the ECB signaling that it does not intend to rush into easing monetary policy despite recent signs of slowing inflation.

Schnabel's comments had an immediate impact on market expectations. The probability of a 25-basis-point rate cut at the ECB’s December meeting dropped sharply, from 90% earlier in the week to around 65%. This shift reflects a more hawkish interpretation of the ECB’s policy trajectory, lending support to the euro.

Attention now turns to inflation data from Spain and Germany, which is due later today. These reports will provide important insights into whether the recent deceleration in inflation is broad-based or merely a temporary reprieve. The stakes are particularly high given that eurozone-wide inflation figures are set to be released on Friday, a day that could decisively shape market sentiment and the ECB’s policy outlook for December.

The importance of these inflation readings cannot be overstated. While the ECB has hinted at a willingness to begin easing monetary policy if inflation shows sustained signs of moderation, a resurgence in price pressures could force the central bank to maintain a more hawkish stance. This delicate balancing act between fostering economic growth and keeping inflation under control will be central to the ECB’s decisions in the coming months. Euro Retreats from Weekly Highs Amid Profit-Taking, Inflation Data in Focus_1

Euro Retreats from Weekly Highs Amid Profit-Taking, Inflation Data in Focus_1

From a technical perspective, the EUR/USD pair remains in a bullish corrective phase. On Wednesday, the pair managed to break through the key resistance level at $1.0563, a move that was confirmed by the daily candlestick closing above this threshold. This development bolsters the case for further gains in the near term, with the next significant target set at $1.0742.

However, this bullish outlook is not without risks. Should the pair fail to sustain its position above $1.0563, it could face renewed selling pressure, potentially pulling back toward the critical support level at $1.0475. The trading range for the day is expected to oscillate between $1.0480 on the downside and $1.0630 on the upside, though U.S. Thanksgiving holidays may lead to subdued market activity and lower liquidity.

TRADE RECOMMENDATION

BUY EURUSD

ENTRY PRICE: 1.05370

STOP LOSS: 1.0450

TAKE PROFIT: 1.0742

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Warren Takunda

Economic

Summary:

The Australian Dollar (AUD) remains subdued against the U.S. Dollar (USD), weighed down by renewed market concerns about U.S.-China tensions and the Federal Reserve's cautious stance on rate cuts.

SELL AUDUSD

Close Time

CLOSED

0.64800

Entry Price

0.63600

0.65600

0.62261 +0.00006 +0.01%

62.3

Pips

Profit

0.63600

0.64177

Exit Price

0.64800

Entry Price

0.65600

The Australian Dollar continues to struggle against the U.S. Dollar, extending its losses as the U.S. Federal Reserve remains cautious about future rate cuts. The Fed’s stance comes amid persistent inflation concerns and robust consumer spending. Additionally, geopolitical developments are weighing heavily on the AUD/USD pair, with the U.S. poised to introduce further restrictions on AI chip exports to China.

This renewed tension between the world's two largest economies poses a significant risk to Australia, given its close trade ties with China. The AUD's sensitivity to global risk sentiment has kept the currency under pressure, despite some positive domestic economic data.

Australia's total new capital expenditure rose by 1.1% quarter-on-quarter in Q3, beating market expectations of a 0.9% increase. This marks a notable rebound from a 2.2% contraction in the previous quarter, indicating a recovery in business investment. However, the data was insufficient to lift the AUD significantly as external risks overshadowed the domestic outlook.

Markets remained subdued, with trading volumes thinning due to the Thanksgiving holiday in the U.S. This lull, however, is unlikely to last as Monday’s announcement of AI chip sanctions could reignite volatility.

The upcoming sanctions targeting China's AI sector are expected to have ripple effects on global markets. Given Australia’s heavy reliance on Chinese demand for commodities, any slowdown in China’s economy could directly impact Australian exports.

Market participants are closely watching how China will respond to these measures, especially with President-elect Donald Trump signaling a more aggressive trade policy. His plan to increase tariffs on all Chinese imports by 10% further exacerbates concerns, raising the specter of a broader trade conflict.

The Federal Reserve’s recent FOMC minutes revealed a cautious approach to rate cuts, driven by steady inflation and a resilient labor market. October’s PCE Price Index showed a year-over-year increase of 2.3%, up from 2.1% in September. Meanwhile, the core PCE, a preferred inflation gauge, ticked up to 2.8%, signaling persistent inflationary pressures.

In contrast, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) has maintained a hawkish outlook despite recent soft inflation data. October’s monthly Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 2.1% year-over-year, falling short of expectations. Nonetheless, the RBA remains focused on keeping inflation within its 2-3% target range.

Australia’s major banks, including Westpac and NAB, have pushed back their rate cut forecasts to May 2024, reflecting uncertainty about the timing of monetary easing. CBA and ANZ, however, maintain a more aggressive stance, anticipating a cut as early as February.

Technical Analysis

Risk aversion has been a dominant theme, driving demand for the U.S. Dollar. The AUD/USD pair remains under downward pressure, trading near key support levels. The pair’s inability to break above 0.6500 suggests continued weakness.

Technical indicators point to a bearish outlook, with the EMA50 forming strong resistance. A break below 0.6440 could open the door for further losses toward 0.6355. The expected trading range for the day is between 0.6410 support and 0.6510 resistance.

TRADE RECOMMENDATION

SELL AUDUSD

ENTRY PRICE: 0.6480

STOP LOSS: 0.6560

TAKE PROFIT: 0.6360

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Manuel

Economic

Central Bank

Summary:

The EUR/USD reached a local low of 1.0330 on November 22 before rebounding toward the 1.0449 zone, a level previously tested on October 3 and acting as support. S

BUY EURUSD

Close Time

CLOSED

1.05218

Entry Price

1.07850

1.04000

1.03985 +0.00075 +0.07%

61.8

Pips

Profit

1.04000

1.05836

Exit Price

1.05218

Entry Price

1.07850

On Tuesday, Mario Centeno, an ECB policymaker and head of Portugal's central bank, expressed concerns about the Eurozone's economy, describing it as "stalling" and facing "mounting downside risks." Among these, Centeno highlighted tariffs threatened by former U.S. President Trump as an additional challenge. On monetary policy, he warned of the risk that inflation might fail to meet the ECB's target, emphasizing the importance of not delaying rate cuts for too long.

In contrast, Isabel Schnabel, a member of the ECB’s Executive Board, played down fears of inflation falling short of the bank's target. Speaking with Bloomberg on Wednesday, Schnabel pointed to persistently high inflation in the services sector. On the outlook for interest rates, she stated, "Given the inflation outlook, I believe we can gradually move toward neutrality if incoming data continues to confirm our baseline."

A rate cut by the ECB at its December meeting appears almost certain. However, market participants remain divided on the likely magnitude of the cut. According to a note from ING analysts, "The prevailing view is that there’s no fiscal salvation in the Eurozone, and the only way to address current woes is for the ECB to cut rates faster than usual. Markets are pricing in a 37 bps probability of a 50 bps rate cut in December, with short-term rate spreads between the U.S. and Eurozone still wide at 190 bps."

Investors will closely watch the preliminary Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) data for November, covering the Eurozone and its largest economies, set to be released on Thursday and Friday.

Meanwhile, in the U.S., the second reading of Q3 GDP is expected to show robust economic growth at 2.8%, unchanged from the preliminary estimate. Personal spending for October is forecast to rise by 0.4%, while both headline and core PCE price index readings are projected to climb from September, reaching 2.3% and 2.8%, respectively.

These data points may heighten concerns among some policymakers that progress on inflation has stalled since the summer. Strong growth and rising PCE figures could dampen expectations for a December rate cut by the Fed, particularly as policymakers have grown increasingly cautious, as reflected in the minutes from the November FOMC meeting. Potential Retracement Could Open Buying Opportunities_1

Potential Retracement Could Open Buying Opportunities_1

Technical Analysis

The EUR/USD reached a local low of 1.0330 on November 22 before rebounding toward the 1.0449 zone, a level previously tested on October 3 and acting as support. Since then, the pair has retraced to 1.0550. Should the 1.0520 level hold firm, it could pave the way for a renewed bullish push toward the 1.0785 region.

The 100- and 200-period moving averages are positioned well above the current price, at approximately 1.0830, indicating that the pair remains significantly below these long-term averages. The recent downward movement appears overextended, with key support levels briefly breached before being recovered, suggesting the potential for a corrective move higher.

From a Fibonacci perspective, a retracement to the 50% level near 1.0785 aligns with a notable price resistance zone. If this resistance is reached, it may serve as a key level to assess the pair's momentum for further upside or a potential reversal.

Trading Recommendations

Trading direction: Buy

Entry price: 1.05220

Target price: 1.07850

Stop loss: 1.0400

Validity: Dec 5, 2024 15:00:00

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Manuel

Cryptocurrency

Summary:

The recent rally saw SHIB peak at 0.00003060 before consolidating at 0.00002351, a critical price level. Historically, this zone has served as a turning point for upward moves.

BUY SHIB-USDT

Close Time

CLOSED

0.000025610

Entry Price

0.000045840

0.000021000

0.000021648 -0.000001239 -5.41%

62.3

Pips

Profit

0.000021000

0.000026233

Exit Price

0.000025610

Entry Price

0.000045840

Shiba Inu debuted in August 2020 as a memecoin, created by an anonymous developer known as Ryoshi. Initially, it functioned as an ERC-20 token on the Ethereum blockchain. Over time, its low per-token price and growing adoption highlighted the need for a more efficient transaction system, especially as the project expanded, driven by an ambitious roadmap.

The solution to these challenges emerged as Shibarium, a Layer 2 (L2) blockchain designed to operate on Ethereum, offering faster and cheaper transactions. Officially launched in August 2023—three years after SHIB's inception—Shibarium represents a critical step in scaling the Shiba Inu ecosystem.

Layer 2 solutions, akin to building highways over congested roads, alleviate transaction bottlenecks and reduce processing costs. Ethereum’s popularity as one of the most widely used blockchains underscores the necessity of L2 solutions like Shibarium, alongside other notable platforms such as Arbitrum, Optimism, Polygon, and Base.

Shibarium enhances Shiba Inu's ecosystem by delivering:

Speed and Efficiency: Transactions are processed significantly faster than on Ethereum’s mainnet, reducing wait times. This efficiency benefits both casual users and developers who rely on rapid, cost-effective transactions.

Security: Leveraging Ethereum’s Proof of Stake (PoS) consensus mechanism, Shibarium ensures energy-efficient and fraud-resistant transaction validation.

Scalability: By managing transactions off Ethereum's mainnet, Shibarium can handle high activity volumes without slowdowns, maintaining smooth network operations even during peak usage.

Compatibility: Seamless integration with Ethereum-based projects and tools simplifies the development and deployment of decentralized applications (dApps). This interoperability allows Shibarium to capitalize on Ethereum's ecosystem while introducing technical improvements.

Token Burning: A portion of transaction fees is used to burn SHIB tokens, effectively reducing supply. This deflationary measure could positively influence the token’s value over time.

To further enhance its ecosystem, the Shiba Inu project proposed creating a Strategic Hub for Innovation and Blockchain (S.H.I.B.) in a U.S. city. This hub aims to transform the location into a global center for blockchain technology and sustainable development.

The hub could spur the development of new applications and use cases for SHIB, increasing its value proposition among investors and developers alike. Additionally, supportive economic policies, such as deregulation and public-private partnerships, could provide a favorable environment for the hub’s success. Shibarium and SHIB´s Ecosystem Advancements Spark Optimism_1

Shibarium and SHIB´s Ecosystem Advancements Spark Optimism_1

Technical Analysis

Shiba Inu reached a cycle high of 0.00004584 on March 5 but experienced a pullback to a low of 0.000010 by August 5. Since then, the token has resumed its bullish momentum, supported by fundamental developments.

The recent rally saw SHIB peak at 0.00003060 before consolidating at 0.00002351, a critical price level. Historically, this zone has served as a turning point for upward moves. The ongoing consolidation suggests the potential for another bullish surge, possibly toward the 0.00004584 resistance level.

Adding to the optimism, moving averages are on the verge of forming a bullish crossover, which could add further upward pressure on SHIB's price. Combined with Shibarium’s advancements and ecosystem upgrades, these factors align to position SHIB for a potential rally.

Trading Recommendations

Trading direction: Buy

Entry price: 0.00002572

Target price: 0.00004584

Stop loss: 0.00002100

Validity: Dec 10, 2024 15:00:00

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Adam

Forex

Summary:

The Euro (EUR) faced pressure from weak economic data from the Eurozone, while the Canadian Dollar (CAD) was supported by a recovery in oil prices and positive expectations from the Bank of Canada (BoC)...

SELL EURCAD

Close Time

CLOSED

1.48352

Entry Price

1.48200

1.48550

1.49657 +0.00545 +0.37%

15.2

Pips

Profit

1.48200

Exit Price

1.48352

Entry Price

1.48550

On November 28, 2024, the EUR/CAD pair was trading around 1.48352, with an intraday high of 1.48450 and a low of 1.48350. The Euro continued to be under pressure due to weak economic data from the Eurozone, including the services and manufacturing PMI indexes falling below 50 – a sign of economic contraction. This increased expectations that the European Central Bank (ECB) will maintain its dovish monetary policy in the near term.

The Canadian dollar, on the other hand, has been supported by a rebound in oil prices, Canada’s main export. Crude oil prices rose slightly after OPEC+ reaffirmed its commitment to cut production to support the market. In addition, inflation in Canada is cooling but remains high enough for the BoC to keep interest rates steady for the time being.

Market psychology

Investor sentiment on EUR/CAD is currently tilted to the negative side. According to data from Forex Sentiment, more than 60% of investors are holding short positions on the pair, reflecting the belief that the downtrend will continue in the short term.

The Fear and Greed Index shows that market sentiment is neutral, but the weakness of the Eurozone and the relative strength of the CAD have fueled bearish sentiment towards the Euro. In addition, institutional investors are also shifting away from risky assets like the Euro to safer or potentially higher-yielding assets like the CAD.

Technical analysis

EUR/CAD Giảm Mạnh: Xu Hướng Giảm Có Tiếp Tục?_1

The current price is hovering near the lower band of the Bollinger Bands at 1.48350, signaling that the market may have entered an oversold state in the short term. The expanding Bollinger Bands indicate increased price volatility recently, with the middle band (1.48427) acting as important resistance if the price attempts to recover.

If the price fails to break above this mid-band in the coming hours, the bearish trend will be further reinforced and the next target will be the deeper support zone around 1.48200.

The Stochastic indicator is currently hovering around 54.01 – close to neutral territory but showing signs of turning bearish. This suggests a possible downside correction before the main trend resumes.

Trading Recommendations

EUR/CAD is under strong downward pressure due to the weakness of the Euro on weak economic data from the Eurozone and the relative strength of the CAD on the recovery of oil prices and positive expectations from the BoC. Technical indicators also suggest that the downtrend is likely to continue if the price fails to break above key resistance levels in the coming time.

Based on technical analysis and current market situation:

Entry: Consider entering a SELL order around the current price of 1.48352 if price fails to break above the resistance at 1.48450 – 1.48500.

Take Profit: Set profit target at nearest support zone around 1.48200 or deeper at 1.48100 if the downtrend continues.

Stop Loss: Place stop loss above the key resistance level at around 1.48550 to protect the position.

Conclude

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Adam

Forex

Summary:

The US Dollar (USD) continued to be supported by positive economic data from the United States and expectations that the Fed will maintain its tight monetary policy. Meanwhile, the Swiss Franc (CHF) was pressured by reduced demand for safe-haven assets...

BUY USDCHF

Close Time

CLOSED

0.88099

Entry Price

0.88350

0.87980

0.89961 +0.00057 +0.06%

25.1

Pips

Profit

0.87980

0.88350

Exit Price

0.88099

Entry Price

0.88350

As of November 28, 2024, the USD/CHF pair is trading around 0.88100. The US dollar has found upside momentum thanks to positive economic data from the United States, including the third quarter GDP report showing the economy grew at a stronger-than-expected rate of 3.2%. This reinforced expectations that the US Federal Reserve (Fed) will maintain its tight monetary policy in the near term.

In contrast, the Swiss franc is under pressure as safe-haven flows ease due to improved global risk sentiment. However, geopolitical tensions between Russia and Ukraine remain a mild support for the CHF in the short term.

Market psychology

The market sentiment on USD/CHF is currently tilted to the positive side. According to data from Forex Sentiment, about 62% of investors are holding long positions on the pair, reflecting the belief that the uptrend will continue in the short term.

The Fear and Greed Index shows market sentiment is at “Greed,” with investors shifting to riskier assets like stocks and high-yield bonds. This further strengthens the USD as international capital continues to flow into the United States.

In addition, trading volume in the forex market has also increased significantly in the past hours, especially in long positions on USD/CHF, indicating strong expectations for the pair's recovery.

Technical analysis

USD/CHF Tăng Nhẹ: Xu Hướng Tăng Có Tiếp Tục?_1

The current price is hovering near the middle line of the Bollinger Bands at 0.88100, signaling that the market is in a consolidation phase after the previous decline. The current Bollinger Bands are quite narrow, indicating low volatility and a high probability of a breakout from the current price range if the trading volume increases in the coming hours.

The middle band of the Bollinger Bands acts as important support if the price starts to correct lower again. If the price breaks above the upper band at around 0.88165 – 0.88170, the uptrend will be further reinforced.

The Stochastic indicator is currently hovering around 23.38 – near the oversold zone (20). This suggests a possible short-term technical recovery before the uptrend continues. If the Stochastic indicator crosses above 50 in the coming hours, this will further reinforce the buy signal.

Trading Recommendations

USD/CHF is showing signs of recovery thanks to the strength of the USD supported by the positive economic outlook from the US and the weakness of the CHF due to the lack of safe-haven flows. Technical indicators also show that the uptrend is likely to continue if the price stays above the important support levels and breaks through the nearest resistance zone in the coming time.

Based on technical analysis and current market situation:

Entry: Consider entering a BUY order around the current price of 0.881 if price holds above the important support zone around 0.88200 – 0.88250.

Take Profit: Set a target to take profit at the nearest resistance zone around 0.88350 or deeper at 0.88400 if the uptrend continues.

Stop Loss: Place stop loss below the important support level at 0.87980 to protect the position.

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Data

USD/CAD Slips Below Key Level as Canadian Dollar Rises Amid Trade Hopes and Economic Data

Euro Retreats from Weekly Highs Amid Profit-Taking, Inflation Data in Focus

Australian Dollar Under Pressure as U.S. Dollar Strengthens Amid Fed's Caution and AI Chip Sanctions on China

Technical Analysis

Potential Retracement Could Open Buying Opportunities

Technical Analysis

Shibarium and SHIB´s Ecosystem Advancements Spark Optimism

Technical Analysis

EUR/CAD Drops Sharply: Will the Downtrend Continue?

Market psychology

Technical analysis

Trading Recommendations

Conclude

USD/CHF Slightly Up: Will the Uptrend Continue?

Market psychology

Technical analysis

Trading Recommendations

Risk Disclosure