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Continuous Bearish Divergence at Highs, Potential Double Tops Suppression Will Appear
Summary:
Continuous USDJPY bearish divergence happens at highs in multiple timeframes. At present, a potential double tops pattern may appear near 137.0, making it bearish for the pair in the short term.
CLOSED
135.496
Entry Price
131.800
TP
136.500
SL
154.374 -1.891 -1.21%
10.5
Pips
Loss
131.800
TP
135.601
Exit Price
135.496
Entry Price
136.500
SL
Fundamentals
Due to the huge policy difference between the hawkish Federal Reserve and the dovish Bank of Japan, the JPY has been under severe pressure and depreciated sharply. However, the depreciation of the JPY seems to have gone too far, and the excessive depreciation has increased the import cost of Japanese companies. The market expects Japan's trade deficit will continue to widen sharply in May, raising the prospect of foreign exchange intervention by the Bank of Japan and the government.
However, the recent decline in international crude oil prices has partially eased the import costs of Japanese companies. If Japan's inflation level continues to stay above 2%, the policy changes by the Bank of Japan will be possible. It is difficult for the Bank of Japan to be immune to the collective tightening by peers such as the Federal Reserve and European Central Bank, and the depreciation of the JPY is expected to bottom out soon.
In the short term, attention should be paid to whether Japan's actual inflation level will prompt a change in the Bank of Japan's policy stance and to the possibility that a softening in the U.S. job market may herald an economic slowdown. Accordingly, USDJPY will peak soon.
Technical Analysis
In the daily chart, continuous USDJPY bearish divergence appears at highs. After breaking through 135.0, it did not surge as sharply as before and is still suppressed below 137.0. At present, it is possible to form a double-top pattern. It is recommended to stop to buy in when appreciating and try to go short instead.
According to the 4H chart, USDJPY has a limited boost above 135.0. Even if the USD strengthens, it does not prevent the exchange rate from continuous depreciation. The indicator RSI quickly dropped below 50. The bulls are significantly weakened, and the short-term bears are dominant.
It is recommended to go short with small positions when the price rebounds to near 135.5. The target is near the support of 131.7 and stop-loss near 136.0.
Trading Recommendations
Trading direction: Short
Entry price: 135.60
Target price: 136.50
Stop loss: 131.80
Support: 134.30/131.70
Resistance: 135.50/137.00
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