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The Bottom Pattern Solid, Rally Can Be Expected
Summary:
The dollar has not fallen further since December but has fluctuated in a narrow range at the bottom. For now, the shape of the bottom is relatively solid. With the accumulated energy is sufficient, the rebound may be imminent.
CLOSED
104.000
Entry Price
108.000
TP
101.000
SL
107.430 +0.220 +0.21%
26.5
Pips
Profit
101.000
SL
104.265
Exit Price
104.000
Entry Price
108.000
TP
Fundamentals
For statistics, the Initial monthly wholesale inventory rate in the United States in November was 1%, higher than the expected 0.4% and the previous value of 0.5%. US FHFA House Price Index came in at 0% m/m in October, higher than expectations of -0.8% and lower than the previous reading of 0.10%. The U.S. S&P/Case-Shiller 20-City Composite Home Price Index (SPCS20RSA) in October was 8.64% y/y, higher than the expected 8.00% and lower than the previous 10.43%. What’s more, the U.S. Merchandise Trade Deficit was $83.3 billion in November, the lowest since December 2020, which is also well below economists' median forecast of $96.3 billion and the $98.8 billion deficit in goods trade in October. The U.S. data is mixed, with little impact on the dollar. In other words, the dollar has blunted against the data.
Overall, China has completely eased entry and exit restrictions yesterday, and optimism about reopening to improve the market has weighed on the dollar, which continues to hover at a nearly half-year low. However, since December, the dollar has not gone further down but has oscillated in a narrow range at the bottom, and the current technical form at the bottom is more solid, with sufficient accumulated energy. In addition, the yield on the 10-year Treasury note rose 9.3 bps to 3.845%, a new high in nearly a month and a half, which also largely reflects the Fed's tightening expectations. This may give the dollar greater support and rebound thrust. Therefore, the dollar will usher in a relatively comfortable rally at the beginning of the year. In addition, it is difficult for the US to avoid a recession at the beginning of next year under the choice of de-inflation, the first of which is risk assets dominated by US stocks. The market risk aversion after financial risk exposure will also support the phased strengthening of the US dollar.
Technical Analysis
Trading at the daily chart, the Dollar Index has been oscillating near the half-year low for a month, with a solid bottom pattern. Besides, the MACD has revealed a golden cross after the bullish divergence, which is gradually widening upward. The short-term bottoming signal has been strengthened. The Dollar Index may shift to bullish afterward.
Trading Recommendations
Trading Direction: Long
Entry Price: 104.000
Target Price: 108.000
Stop Loss: 101.000
Support: 103.400/100.000
Resistance: 105.800/109.300
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