On Monday (June 26th), spot gold rebounded slightly during the Asian session and is currently trading near $1926. The geopolitical situation has been volatile and unpredictable over the weekend. First, the head of Russia's "Wagner" group, Prigozhin, claimed that his militants had taken over the headquarters of Russia's southern military district and were approaching Moscow. Putin explained that Prigozhin would be prosecuted. Then the Belarusian President's office said that the Russian mercenary leader Prigozhin has agreed to stop the activities of Wagner fighters in Russia, agreed to de-escalate the situation, and ordered the withdrawal of troops to their bases, and that the criminal case against Prigozhin will be dropped and he will go to Belarus. Now, the world, the U.S., NATO, and investors are all confused as the 'civil war' ends within one day. It has little impact on trading and today sees a normal opening. Gold prices oscillated slightly, but as geopolitical tensions rose during the weekend, the oscillations of gold could be more violent this week.

Data: U.S. June Markit manufacturing PMI value was 46.3, lower than the expected value of 48.5 and the previous value of 48.4. In addition, U.S. June Markit services PMI value was 54.1, slightly higher than the expected value of 54 and lower than the previous value of 54.9.

Key data for investors to watch today: Germany's June IFO Business Climate Index, the U.K. June CBI retail sales differential. Key events to watch: the Bank of Japan releases a summary of comments regarding the June monetary policy meeting, the Bank of England monetary policy member Dingella delivers a speech, and the ECB Forum on Central Banking will be held until the 28th of June.

Daily chart: Last week's continuous downward consolidations released a certain adjustment and rebound demand. Last Friday, a rapid pull-up, an oversold adjustment, took place, but gold retraced later, demonstrating that the market sentiment is still weak. Furthermore, the current SMAs are under a bearish divergence pattern, indicating the weakness of gold. Therefore, investors could consider the support and resistance of the averages today, focusing on the resistance near the 10-day SMA ($1938), where gold rebounded last Friday without crossing through. Gold's strength is determined by whether can hold $1938. If it stands stably above $1938, gold may reach $1950, or $1970. Instead, if gold runs under $1938 weakly, try to target $1910 or even $1900.

Trading recommendations today: Trade according to the short-term oscillations since there is no sign of a clear direction. Consider the resistance near $1930 today, and look above the resistance at $1938 if gold climbs up. If gold falls from high, it will be confirmed technically failing to surge higher and turn weaker. Then, investors should care about the support near $1910, and gold will not move much during the Asian session. Moreover, gold is relatively strong based on what happened during the weekend. Therefore, try to go long at lows during the U.S. session despite a small space. For further instructions, investors should consider short-selling near $1938. In general, the trading range will be $1920-$1938, where investors should buy low and sell high instead of chasing the trend.

Trading direction: Long 

Entry price: 1920

Target price: 1938

Stop loss: 1908

Support: 1920.000/1910.000

Resistance: 1930.000/1938.000

The upcoming week presents several key factors that could influence the EUR/USD exchange rate, including German economic data, inflation figures, and comments from ECB members.

To kick off the week, the market will be closely watching the German Ifo Business Climate Index, which is scheduled for release on Monday. This index is a significant gauge of business sentiment in Germany and can impact the overall market sentiment. The following day, attention will shift to the German GfK consumer climate numbers, which will provide insights into consumer confidence and spending patterns in the country.

Given concerns about the German economic recession and the global macroeconomic environment, there is a possibility that the Business Climate Index and its sub-components may decline. However, the tight labor market conditions in Germany could provide some support to the Consumer Climate Index, limiting its downside potential.

Later in the week, the focus will remain on the German economy. Preliminary inflation numbers for June and retail sales figures for May will be released on Thursday, followed by unemployment figures on Friday. Inflation data is likely to be a key driver for market sentiment, with preliminary euro area inflation figures also garnering significant attention on Friday.

While the European Central Bank (ECB) appears poised to raise interest rates in July, there remains uncertainty surrounding the September monetary policy decision. Support for a rate hike in September could provide support for the EUR/USD exchange rate.

Furthermore, on Thursday, the ECB will release its monthly Economic Bulletin, which will provide insights into the central bank's outlook on inflation, the economy, and interest rates. Investors will closely analyze this publication for any indications of the ECB's future policy direction.

In terms of technical analysis, the recent price action shows that the pair reached a previous resistance level but experienced a reversal following Fed Chairman Powell's speech, indicating a potential reversal pattern. The daily chart also suggests a break in the market structure. Traders may anticipate a retracement this week, with a potential push below the highlighted liquidity level. Price broke below the 20 ema which suggests we are now in a downtrend The 50- 61.8 % Fibonacci retracement level  around  1.09200 is a key area to monitor for potential entry points. However, it is advisable to seek additional confirmation, such as observing the fair value gap , reversal candlestick patterns  on the 4-hour chart, before initiating any trades.

As the week unfolds, market participants will closely monitor the developments in German economic data, inflation figures, and ECB communications to gauge the potential impact on the EUR/USD exchange rate.

SELL EURUSD

ENTRY PRICE : 1.09200

STOPLOSS : 1.10200

TAKE PROFIT : 1.07200

U.S. Treasury yields surged on Thursday after major global central banks warned of possible further rate hikes, the latest catalyst for yen weakness. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell said the U.S. may need to raise interest rates once or twice more this year, while the Bank of England warned that it may have to raise rates again after a 50 basis point hike.

The Bank of Japan left its policy unchanged at last week's meeting and had no plans to tighten policy rates in the near term. This puts the BOJ at odds with other major central banks, which have been tightening rates sharply to curb inflation.

With major central banks likely to raise interest rates further while the Bank of Japan stays put, the widening spread between U.S. and Japanese bond yields has led to a sharp weakening of the yen, raising concerns that the Japanese government may intervene in currency markets to support the yen.

The Japanese Ministry of Finance shocked global financial markets with its interventions in September and October of last year. Although the yen has not fallen to the level seen back then when it dropped below 150.00, a breach of the 145.00 level could prompt further verbal intervention by Japanese authorities.

Verbal intervention effectively amounts to the BOJ and the Ministry of Finance warning yen bears that FX intervention may be near. Alternatively, the BOJ could adjust its yield curve control policy, although this possibility seems less likely at present.

So far, market expectations that any verbal intervention will trigger sharp fluctuations in the yen seem to be lukewarm. The one-month implied volatility in the currency market is lower than it was before the actual intervention last year.

Investor end-of-season buying and corporate hedging flows have also led to a decline in the yen, with the market now anticipating limited resistance for the USD/JPY exchange rate to rise to 145.00.

Gold prices continue to face selling pressure around $1,917 in the European session. However, as the market focuses on the Bank of Japan's verbal intervention, a "sector rotation" effect in the forex market may aid in the rise of safe-haven assets.

On Friday, gold prices continued to follow a key bearish trend line in the hourly chart with resistance near $1,930. Earlier, gold prices tested support levels at the recent low of $1,910 and prices are currently consolidating losses.

Judging by the rapid decline in the market and the pace at which prices are likely to continue to get consolidated, the next target for the bulls may be to reach a return to the mean in the $1,930 range. If the bulls manage to hold this level, a return to the $1,934-$1,938 range is possible, and any further gains could set the foundation for a rise toward the $1,955 level.

On the other hand, initial support for further downside movement is near $1,900, with major support around $1,885. If the support at $1,885 is breached, the price may accelerate its decline, potentially reaching the $1,860 range.

Overall, despite the fundamental conditions favoring further downward movement after consecutive new lows in gold prices, the "sector rotation" effect in the market and mean reversion may contribute to a potential rise in gold prices. Nevertheless, instead of buying, it is advisable to wait for the upward slope propelled by mean reversion. This approach offers the least risk. In terms of strategy, it is advisable not to chase long positions but focus on going short at highs.

Trading Direction: Short

Entry Price: 1927

Target Price: 1860

Stop Loss: 1964

Valid Until: 2023-07-07 23:55:00

Support: 1900, 1890, 1885

Resistance: 1927, 1934, 1945

During the Asian session on Friday (June 23), the spot gold hovered at a near three-month low and is currently trading near $1,917 per ounce. The gold price fell sharply by nearly $20 overnight to a new low since March 16. Initial Jobless Claims in the U.S. last week were basically stable at a 20-month high with a small increase, which could be an early sign of labor market weakness amidst aggressive credit tightening by the Fed. After the release of the data, the decline in the gold price once narrowed. But Powell continued to put hawkish remarks, and the market is also suffering from the hawkish tendency to raise interest rates. The gold price continued its weak downside, falling as low as around 1910, then rebounding after it stabilized.

The key data for investors to watch today are as follows: UK Gfk Consumer Confidence for June, Japan National CPI Annual Rate for May, UK Retail Sales QoQ for May; France, Germany, US, UK, and Eurozone Markit Manufacturing PMI Preliminary Value for June. Big events to watch include St. Louis President James Bullard's speech at the meeting of the Central Bank of Ireland, and Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta President Raphael Bostic's participation in a conversation with the financial and business community on related topics.

Daily chart: After this week's continuous decline, the price in the daily chart fell for several days in a row, with the MAs diverging side-by-side downward. The gold price also gradually broke the key support points of 1950, 1930, and 1918, and formed a weak unilateral movement. For the lower range in the daily chart, focus on the important psychological barrier near the 1900 mark, as the price is also likely to fall below this point, but certainly not so smoothly; if the price falls below, further support will be in the 1890 range. In the current situation, that is, since the weak pattern has formed, it is suggested not to guess the bottom of the fall. Trading on the trend is highly significant, but there is also a great risk of chasing the bearish trend. Traders can go short but do not chase the market. The price, in the short term, may have a rebounding demand after a sustained decline by being oversold, thus blindly chasing a bearish trend may be leading to a deeply locked-in. Patience is especially crucial to endure unrealized losses. It is recommended that one can wait for the price to rebound to the highest before shorting, or trade the rebound after a sharp decline to the support level.

Intraday trading: Gold's overall performance was weak yesterday. The gold was weakly oscillating under 1940 during the intraday session; there was little volatility in the Asian and European sessions, and the price had repeatedly fallen below 1930, to around 1920, and rebounded again to 1930. This situation is extremely bad for investors who are chasing the bearish trend, and bulls who entered positions at the key support of 1918 are also worn to no patience. The unemployment data in the U.S. market is positive, and many investors may be forced to chase the highs; of course, this is not to blame, after all, the price is in the key support position, and encounter favorable data. The counter-trend trading mindset that also continues to go short is out of the ordinary. Today's trading advice is to go short after the price rallies, but the stop loss has to be narrowed. After the price rebounds to the line of 1918-1920, one can go short with the stop loss set at 1925. If the price drops below the range near 1900 today, one can take the opportunity to go long in the short term, with an enlarged stop loss as appropriate. Stop loss can be set at 1890, with the first target of the take-profit setting at 1918 and moving the stop loss to breakeven, and the second target set above 1930.

Trading direction: Long

Entry price:1902

Target price: 1925

Stop loss: 1890

Support:1900.000/1890.000

Resistance: 1918.000/1930.000

During the Asian session on Friday (June 23), amid the Chinese holiday, copper futures oscillated quite sharply to the downside and are currently trading around $8538.The dollar strengthened yesterday as Powell released further hawkish comments. Market concerns over future demand offset support from a sharp reduction in LME available stocks. The copper price fell after surging higher to a high of $8711, a record high since May 2; however, the price fell sharply overnight to a low of 8548 and closed at 8575, forming a relatively long upper shadow line. The copper price has been on the rise since the end of May at around 7850, whose main logic is the expected growth in demand from low inventories and the stabilization of the world economy, especially the stimulation of China's interest rate cut on bullish sentiment. The logic of this increase has largely been fulfilled as well. But in the long run, inventories are unlikely to continue to fall lower. In the context of global copper oversupply, the probability of the copper price falling from the highs in the second half of the year is greater, with the overall downward trend dominating.

In terms of inventory, overseas copper inventory is still at a low level, although it has picked up from a low level. Domestic copper inventories continue to be depleted and are also at lows.

From the supply side, the first thing is the loose supply on the mining side. Data released by the International Copper Study Group (ICSG) shows that the cumulative global copper mine production from January to March was 5.301 million tons, a total increase of 2.04% YoY. This year, with the release of new production and expansion projects at major overseas copper mines, copper is expected to increase by about 840,000 metal tons, comparable to 2022.

From the demand side, this year's copper terminal industry data show that China's domestic investment, air conditioning, and automobile production are not satisfactory as expected, which still needs further efforts at the policy level. In addition, the copper downstream processing industry started weakly. Traditional areas are still to be recovered, and new energy is to be developed.

On the macro side, high interest rates abroad will be prolonged, which will undoubtedly drag down overseas economies. With continued interest rate hikes overseas, the pressure of global economic recession has increased and manufacturing data from various countries is poor. Data show that the ISM Manufacturing Index in the US registered 46.9% in May, having contracted for seven consecutive months. Eurozone manufacturing activity also shrank sharply, with the Manufacturing PMI recording 44.8% in May, a new low since May 2020. In the first quarter of this year, China's manufacturing industry once improved under the policy boost, but then weakened again. China's official Manufacturing PMI in May was 48.8%, below the threshold, and the social financing in May was even weaker. There is still much room for policy to stabilize growth.

Daily Chart: The copper price has been on the rise from the end of May after gaining support near 7850 to the highest point of this round, which is close to 900 points of increase, and is in a resistance-intensive range of 8600-8700. Yesterday's round of rallies has shown weakness, and there is a tendency for bulls to profit-taking. Leaving a long upper shadow line, the price is likely to start a retracement, with support below at the 8200 line of the 7900-8700 pivot.

Trading direction: Short

Entry price:8550

Target price: 8200

Stop loss: 8800

Support: 8350\8250

Resistance: 8711\9000

In recent days, the financial markets have been dominated by Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell's hawkish statements, which have sparked an increased demand for the US dollar. This surge in demand, coupled with disappointing economic data from the United States, has further weakened market sentiment. However, despite the negative mood, the XAU/USD pair is currently experiencing a bearish trend and is aiming to break through the $1,900 mark. Let's delve deeper into the factors influencing gold prices and their future outlook.

Chairman Jerome Powell's remarks have significantly impacted market sentiment. His hawkish stance, signaling a potential rise in interest rates, has prompted investors to flock to the US dollar, seeking higher returns. This surge in demand has put pressure on gold prices, which typically move inversely to the strength of the US dollar. As a result, the XAU/USD pair has faced downward pressure.

Adding to the negative sentiment, recent economic data from the United States has been underwhelming. These reports have raised concerns about the strength and pace of economic recovery, leading investors to adopt a more cautious approach. The combination of Powell's hawkish statements and disappointing economic data has cast a shadow on the market, affecting various assets, including gold.

Despite the prevailing negative market sentiment, the XAU/USD pair has been exhibiting a bearish trend. Gold prices have witnessed a decline, with the precious metal falling from a high of $1,935 to a low of $1,912.82. The market's focus on the US dollar and US yields has been the primary driver behind this downward movement. Investors are anticipating higher interest rates in the US as the Federal Reserve looks to slow down the economy to tackle inflationary pressures.

In his recent address to the Senate Banking Panel, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell reiterated the likelihood of interest rates continuing on an upward trajectory. He emphasized that rate cuts are not on the horizon. These comments further cemented the market's expectation of tighter monetary policy in the near term. As a result, gold prices plunged to their lowest level in three months, reflecting investors' concerns about the potential impact of rising interest rates on the precious metal.

Based on the analysis of the previous day, I  have been closely monitoring the XAU/USD pair's price movements. Bears are eyeing a potential breakout, as indicated by the wick on the daily chart. This breakout is expected to act as a catalyst for a selling program, driving gold prices further down toward the support level. Currently, the market has seen a low of $1,912.82, suggesting the possibility of continued downward pressure on gold.

The recent hawkish statements by Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell and disappointing economic data have dampened market sentiment and led to an increased demand for the US dollar. Consequently, gold prices have been experiencing a bearish trend, dropping to their lowest level in three months. With Powell's repeated emphasis on potential interest rate hikes, investors are concerned about the impact on the precious metal. As the XAU/USD pair aims to break through the $1,900 mark, market participants remain cautious about the future direction of gold prices.

SELL XAUUSD

ENTRY PRICE : 1930

STOPLOSS : 1960

TAKE PROFIT :1860