Set the Foundation in Light of the Mixed Technical Indicators

Commodity

Economic

Summary:

There are signs that the supply of crude oil is rebounding, while concerns about the demand of China, the largest importer, persist, and oil prices remain under pressure.

BUY WTI

Close Time

CLOSED

79.000

Entry Price

83.300

76.300

67.868 +0.623 +0.93%

102.0

Pips

Profit

76.300

80.020

Exit Price

79.000

Entry Price

83.300

Fundamentals

The rise of WTI crude oil since late June has slowed down in the past two weeks, and futures prices have returned to the level at the beginning of the year. Efforts by Saudi Arabia and Russia, important countries of the OPEC+ Group, to cut production have led to market tightening. However, the demand outlook in China is clouded, and there are signs that the U.S. interest rates need to remain high for a longer time to curb inflation.

We believe that whether it is recession concerns, economic headwinds, or demand concerns, OPEC+'s supply management strategy has successfully addressed these concerns. Although the balance between supply and demand of crude oil may deteriorate obviously, there is no reason to believe that global crude oil consumption will be close to stagnation, let alone below supply.

On the market side, WTI crude oil may get clues from the inventory data of API and EIA released later this week; Another large-scale reduction will reassure bulls, indicating that demand is still high.

Other market catalysts that may affect sentiment and crude oil prices include PMI data released by major economies, which may bring new insights into business activities. Strong data may continue to push up crude oil prices. On the other hand, a weak result may mean a downward trend in crude oil prices, because it may indicate a slowdown in growth.

WTI: Set the Foundation in Light of the Mixed Technical Indicators_1

Technical Analysis

As WTI crude oil price forms a head-shoulder pattern in the 4H timeframe, the pattern may be reversed from the upward trend. Despite this, the current price has not yet fallen below the neckline of about US$80.00.

If this happens, the price of crude oil could fall with a retracement of the same height as the chart pattern, i.e. around US$4.00. However, the technical indicators look mixed.

100 SMA is still above 200 SMA, indicating that the path of least resistance is upward, or the support is more likely to hold rather than be broken. 200 SMA is close to the neckline, which also enhances its support strength.

If the bottom remains unchanged, it may rebound to the area around US$82.00 again. On the other hand, if the support collapses, it will be confirmed that the reversal is coming.

The stochastic indicator is lower, confirming that the bears have the upper hand, but the oscillator is approaching the oversold zone, suggesting that the bears are about to run out of steam. However, the Relative Strength Index has more room to fall; therefore, crude oil prices could follow the grip of the bears. It is recommended to set the foundation.

Trading Recommendations

Trading direction: Long

Entry price: 79.00

Target price: 83.30

Stop loss: 76.30

Deadline: 2023-09-05 23:55:00

Support: 79.51, 79.00, 78.49

Resistance: 80.29, 81.66, 83.30

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

You understand and acknowledge that there is a high degree of risk involved in trading. Following any strategies or investment methods may lead to potential losses. The content on the site is provided by our contributors and analysts for information purposes only. You are solely responsible for determining whether any trading assets, securities, strategy, or any other product is suitable for investing based on your own investment objectives and financial situation.

Comments

Add to Favorites

Eva Chen

Forex

Central Bank

Economic

Summary:

The AUDUSD rose for the second consecutive day, reaching the threshold of 0.6459 in the European session on Tuesday. On Monday, Standard & Poor's downgraded several U.S. banks and revised their outlook, and the USD faced some subsequent selling.

SELL AUDUSD

Close Time

CLOSED

0.64151

Entry Price

0.62530

0.65300

0.63845 -0.00017 -0.03%

45.1

Pips

Profit

0.62530

0.63700

Exit Price

0.64151

Entry Price

0.65300

Fundamentals

On Monday, Standard & Poor's downgraded several American banks, indicating that the rapid rise in interest rates is putting pressure on the financing and liquidity of many U.S. institutions. Some subsequent selling faced by the USD on Tuesday boosted the AUD. However, market investors increased their bets on the Fed's further interest rate hike, which pushed the yield of 10-year US Treasury Securities to 4.366%, the highest level in 2007, and continued to support the USD.

On the other hand, the People's Bank of China (PBOC) lowered the one-year loan prime rate (LPR) by less than expected. The decision of the PBOC shows that the one-year loan prime rate (LPR) will be lowered by 10 basis points from 3.55% to 3.45%, and the five-year loan prime rate will remain unchanged at 4.2%.

We believe that there is an increasing risk that the AUDUSD will fall below 0.6000 before the end of the year. The downward trend of the AUD can only be reversed if China introduces a large-scale stimulus plan to boost the commodity-intensive infrastructure. Investors will pay close attention to the headlines about China's economic difficulties, because it may affect the AUD, which reflects China's economic prospects.

On the other hand, the recent suspension signal issued by the Fed has not formed a long-term trend of weakening the USD, because the soaring yield of long-term government bonds has provided new support for the yield. Unless the Jackson Hole Economic Symposium held on Friday brings surprise from the doves, it seems likely that the USD will rise further.

As for the AUD, before the price tests around 0.6200, there was almost no obvious support for the AUDUSD. The moderate tone of the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) in August seems to be the background of the unfavorable factors facing the AUD, rather than the main driver of the AUD's decline.

Looking ahead, investors will also wait for the Standard & Poor's Global Purchasing Managers Index of Australia and the U.S. released on Wednesday. More risk events will be the focus of this week with Federal Reserve Chairman Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole Economic Symposium. Investors will get clues from the event and look for trading opportunities around the AUDUSD.

AUDUSD: Go Short at the Highs as the Downward Structure Will Be Fully Extended_1

Technical Analysis

The AUDUSD broke out of the hourly formed symmetrical triangle pattern during the European session and the price also stabilized above the 50-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 0.6420, but is still facing resistance around the 200-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 0.6455.

Although the AUDUSD has taken a breather after completing a "crab" pattern of price movement, the AUDUSD has been under bearish pressure after hitting new lows since November last year. As a series of bearish factors continue to weigh on the AUDUSD's price, it is expected to face a geometric increase in selling after the rally.

Momentum indicators continue to dominate the current downtrend. Specifically, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) has reached its lowest point since the March 2023 correction. Similarly, the Average Directional Index (ADX) has moved slightly higher, thus indicating a bearish trend in the market. Interestingly, the stochastic oscillator remains in the oversold zone and remains wide of its SMA. It may have to hover for a while before signaling a reversal.

If the price falls below the August 18 low of 0.6380 again, the downward trend will be consolidated and the AUDUSD will fall to a new nine-month low near 0.6300. Breaking the latter will make the AUDUSD fall to a low of 0.6272 on November 3, 2022. It is recommended to go short at the highs.

Trading Recommendations

Trading direction: Short

Entry price: 0.6420

Target price: 0.6253

Stop loss: 0.6530

Deadline: 2023-09-05 23:55:00

Support: 0.6404, 0.6364, 0.6299

Resistance: 0.6459, 0.6484, 0.6522

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

Comments

Add to Favorites

Chandan Gupta

Economic

Commodity

Summary:

The gold market will remain wary of the path of interest rates as an important guide to where we head in the future.

SELL XAUUSD

Close Time

CLOSED

1911.94

Entry Price

1871.35

1922.20

3017.52 +16.52 +0.55%

102.6

Pips

Loss

1871.35

1922.58

Exit Price

1911.94

Entry Price

1922.20

Fundamentals

Overall, the gold price is tapering a 1% weekly loss, reducing the year-to-date gain to just over 5%. In the same situation, the price of silver, a sister item to gold, reached $23.36/ounce. White metal prices rose 3% last week, but are still down more than 3% since the start of the year.

All was calm on the economic data front on Monday, as traders focused more on the US dollar and US bond markets. In this regard, the US Dollar Index (DXY), a measure of the US currency's performance against a basket of other major currencies, fell to 103.30, having opened at 103.38. The index gained 0.1% last week and has been relatively stable for a year. A weak US dollar benefits dollar - denominated commodities because it makes it cheaper for foreign investors to buy them.

On the other hand, it affects the market. Treasury yields rose broadly, with the 10-year yield up 8.7 basis points to 4.338%. Yields on the two-year bond rose 5.4 basis points to 4.99%, while the yield on the 30-year bond rose 7.4 basis points to 4.453%. Gold is often sensitive to fluctuations in interest rates because they can affect the opportunity cost of holding underperforming bullion.

Technical Analysis

In the gold market, the recent session on Monday showed an increase in value, marked by a rebound from the 200 - day exponential moving average.

This revival prompted a relevant investigation:

Can this bottom - up momentum stand the test of time? As our attention expands along the chart, we come across the 50-day EMA located around $40 above, which poses a potential hurdle that needs to be overcome.

Notably, a successful break of this barrier could pave the way for the key milestone of $2000, a level that influences market sentiment.

Trading Recommendations

Trading Direction: Short

ENTRY : 1911.94

TP : 1871.35

SL : 1922.20

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

Comments

Add to Favorites

Peterson

Commodity

Summary:

Traders should focus on the battle around the range of 79.8-80.

BUY WTI

Close Time

CLOSED

78.500

Entry Price

80.500

78.000

67.868 +0.623 +0.93%

50.0

Pips

Loss

78.000

77.998

Exit Price

78.500

Entry Price

80.500

Fundamentals

During the Asian session on Tuesday (August 22), WTI oil price fluctuated to the downward and is currently trading around 79.9 dollar/barrel. Yesterday, the oil price surged and then rebounded, which was mainly driven by the fading expectation of China’s demand and the uncertainty of US rate hikes in September. Meanwhile, the import of China declined rapidly. According to China's General Administration of Customs, crude oil imports from Saudi Arabia were 5.65 million mt in July, down 14% from last year and down 31% from June, which also weigh on oil prices.

Data: The number of US oil rigs fell for six consecutive weeks by 28 units， which is its lowest level since February 2022. It suggests that the recent improvement in the price environment has not been enough for producers to pause their plans to taper their activities. With drilling activity declining steadily (oil production down about 15% YoY), Rystad Energy sees signs of slowing growth in US shale fields in the coming months. Weak oil prices, coupled with a sharp correction in natural gas prices, have forced operators to spare capacity, as the outlook for global demand growth remains murky.

Technical Analysis

Trading at the daily timeframe, WTI crude oil surged and then fell back yesterday, failing to extend the bullish trend. The price had already reached 81.6, but then dropped rapidly and fluctuated below 80, finally closed around 80. As we said earlier, the pullback of US crude oil is still not over, and the rebound is only for a better fall. At the same time, we also prompted to go short at 81.5 and fully cashed out the profit. At present, technically, the MA5 has begun to cross the MA10 and MA20, and the MACD indicator has also maintained a widen death cross. The price still remains a bearish trend and require further adjustment. During the day, the price may be around 79.8 at MA5. If the day does not rise quickly to recover, the lower side may test the support around 78.5. By contrast, it may be able to try upwards to break through the resistance at Monday's high of 81.6. During the day, traders can still buy lows and sell highs. In addition, you should also pay attention to two probable supports at 78.5 and 79.8 for going long in the short term.

It is recommended that investors should buy lows and sell highs. During the day, you can test short in the short term according to a rebound to around 81.2 at MA10 and MA20. The stop loss is 81.6, and the first target is at 79.8, where you can cut your positions and move your stop loss to break even. The second target is 78.5. Also, you can test long in the short term if the oil price declines to around 78.5, with the stop loss at 78 and the position to take profit at 80. WTI: The Demand Begin to Decline, and the Rally of the Oil Price Is Hampered_1

WTI: The Demand Begin to Decline, and the Rally of the Oil Price Is Hampered_1

Trading Recommendations

Trading Direction: Long

Entry Price: 78.500

Target Price: 80.500

Stop Loss: 78.000

Support: 79.800/78.500

Resistance: 81.600/82.500

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

Comments

Add to Favorites

Peterson

Commodity

Summary:

Today's oscillation will be from 1892 to 1902, it is better to buy at lows.

BUY XAUUSD

Close Time

CLOSED

1890.00

Entry Price

1902.00

1884.00

3017.52 +16.52 +0.55%

106.3

Pips

Profit

1884.00

1900.63

Exit Price

1890.00

Entry Price

1902.00

Fundamentals

During Tuesday's (August 22nd) Asian session, spot gold narrowly oscillated, and it is currently trading near 1895. Yesterday, US. bond yields continued to rebound, with the 10-year U.S. bond yield exceeding 2% for the first time since 2009. Besides, the dollar grew slightly higher, but then declined from highs, setting gold prices back to 1885 again. Gold was supported and rebounded due to some bears taking profits before this week's Fed officials' speech and Jackson Hole Economic Symposium. In addition to investor concern about the global recession, the support from buy-the-dips would help gold to build a bottom recently. From the medium and long term, the dollar is hard to remain high for a longer period, while Goldman Sachs recently warned of a possible government shutdown on September 30th. According to Goldman Sachs estimates, during the Fed government shutdown period, the U.S. GDP growth rate will drop by 0.2% each week, and it is just the beginning that high interest rates shock the U.S. economy. For the gold price, it will oscillate shortly to find the bottom. As the bottom gets firmer, the future rebound will be smoother.

Key data: The U.S. Existing Home Sales data for July and Richmond Manufacturing Index for August.

Technical Analysis

Daily chart: Gold did not move much yesterday. Despite a bearish trend, gold rebounded a bit. Since gold touched the low near 1885, it rebounded twice to 1898 by 12 dollars. More importantly, gold did not depreciate continuously but appreciated to 1895. Therefore, gold was not weak yesterday, and it is better not to go short. Technically, gold ended the continuous declined at 1885 on Monday, suggesting a bullish rebounding signal. But a single positive pattern in the daily chart is not sufficient, gold must stabilize above the 10-day SMA to achieve an on-going growth. Furthermore, the resistance above will be determined according to the resistance at the 10-day SMA (1900), the psychological level for bulls and bears. If gold crosses above this level, gold will keep appreciating and reach the range from 1910 to 1920.

Trading recommendations: Buy at lows. If gold retraces to 1892 today, investors should go long with small positions. However, if gold keeps declining to 1886, investors could cover the positions. Moreover, the stop-loss will be near 1884, and the first target to take profits will be 1902, where investors should move the stop-loss to breakeven. Then, the second target will be at 1910. XAUUSD: Buy at Lows Under a Clear Bottom _1

XAUUSD: Buy at Lows Under a Clear Bottom _1

Trading Recommendations

Trading direction: Long

Entry price: 1890

Target price: 1902

Stop loss: 1884

Support: 1892.000/1885.000

Resistance: 1900.000/1910.000

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

Comments

Add to Favorites

Warren Takunda

Forex

Traders' Opinions

Summary:

The Japanese yen has experienced significant losses, with USD/JPY trading at 146.150, up 0.55% on the day. Japan's inflation, now slightly above 3%, has raised speculation about the Bank of Japan tightening its monetary policy. However, concerns persist as the central bank insists high inflation is transient. Trade pressures from China, whose yuan has fallen about 5% against the US dollar, are also affecting Japan. USD/JPY recently breached resistance at 145.54, with support levels at 144.51 and 143.64. As Japan navigates these challenges, the yen's future remains uncertain and of global significance.

BUY USDX

EXP

EXPIRED

146.800

Entry Price

150.000

145.000

103.030 +0.050 +0.05%

Pips

EXPIRED

145.000

104.134

Exit Price

146.800

Entry Price

150.000

In the ever-evolving world of international finance, the Japanese yen finds itself at the center of a complex set of challenges. The recent performance of the USD/JPY currency pair has captured the attention of market observers, as the yen has experienced significant losses. In the North American session, USD/JPY is trading at 146.150 marking a 0.55% increase for the day. This surge in the US dollar's strength has brought the yen tantalizingly close to falling below the critical 146 line, reminiscent of last week when the resurgent US dollar drove the yen to a nine-month low.

Japan's economic landscape has undergone a remarkable transformation. Once synonymous with deflation, the country now faces the challenges of high global inflation. Japan's inflation rate has climbed slightly above 3%, a level that other major central banks might envy. However, this inflation is relatively high by Japanese standards, and both headline and core inflation have consistently exceeded the Bank of Japan's (BoJ) 2% target.

These inflation figures are being closely monitored by financial markets, as the possibility of the BoJ tightening its loose monetary policy looms on the horizon. The central bank has maintained that the current high inflation is a transient phenomenon, but history has shown that central banks are not always accurate in their predictions. The memories of the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank, both of which initially downplayed inflation concerns before taking action, are fresh in investors' minds.

Recent Inflation Figures

Last week, Japan's consumer price index (CPI) for July remained unchanged at 3.3% year-on-year, a notable figure by Japanese standards. Core CPI, a closely-watched indicator, dropped to 3.1% year-on-year, down from the previous 3.3%. The coming Tuesday will see the release of BoJ Core CPI, which is the central bank's preferred inflation gauge. It is anticipated to dip to 2.7% in July, a slight decrease from June's 3.0%.

Trade Woes with China

Beyond inflation, Japan faces external pressures, particularly in its trade relations with China. The ongoing economic challenges in China have led to a sharp depreciation of the Chinese yuan against the US dollar, with the currency falling approximately 5% this year. A weaker yuan makes Chinese exports more appealing to global buyers, but this advantage comes at the expense of other exporters, including Japan. Consequently, there is mounting pressure on Japan to weaken the yen's value to maintain competitiveness with Chinese exports.

USD/JPY Outlook

The USD/JPY currency pair has made notable moves, breaching the resistance level at 145.54 earlier in the trading session. The next significant resistance line to watch is at 146.41. On the downside, there is solid support at 144.51 and 143.64, indicating potential levels where the yen could find some stability.

The Japanese yen's recent performance reflects the intricate interplay of domestic and international factors. As inflation challenges Japan's monetary policy and China's economic difficulties impact trade dynamics, the yen faces a period of uncertainty.

TRADE RECOMMENDATION

BUY USDJPY

ENTRY PRICE : 146.80

STOP LOSS : 145.00

TAKE PROFIT : 150.00

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

Comments

Add to Favorites

Warren Takunda

Commodity

Traders' Opinions

Summary:

Gold is facing a challenging period as surging real yields pose a significant obstacle to its performance. While investors anticipated a calm week, anxiety is growing among long-term gold enthusiasts as gold futures approach the critical $1,900 mark, potentially triggering a wave of selling. Gold's traditional appeal as a safe haven is waning due to the prevailing economic strength, and hedge funds are reducing their gold exposure, further denting confidence. If gold fails to bounce back above $1,905, it could confirm a downtrend, with the $1,800 - $1,810 range as a potential target, a level gold has struggled to breach for the past three years.

SELL XAUUSD

Close Time

CLOSED

1900.00

Entry Price

1800.00

1920.00

3017.52 +16.52 +0.55%

8.3

Pips

Profit

1800.00

1899.17

Exit Price

1900.00

Entry Price

1920.00

Gold, the age-old haven of investors, is facing a formidable adversary in the form of surging real yields. As the market awaits the Friday speech by Fed Chair Powell at Jackson Hole, gold's journey at the start of the week was anticipated to be calm. However, lurking beneath the surface is an air of unease among long-term gold bulls, as gold futures dangerously approach the critical $1,900 level, which, if breached, could trigger a significant wave of technical selling.

Gold's recent performance is emblematic of its current dilemma. Unlike previous years, it seems that gold now requires a certain degree of disorderly stress in financial markets to ignite its rally. Unfortunately for gold enthusiasts, such turmoil doesn't appear to be on the horizon in the near term. The key question plaguing the minds of investors is whether gold can regain its luster in the coming quarters.

One of the primary reasons behind gold's muted performance is the prevailing strength in the economy. As economies rebound from the shocks of the pandemic, investors are finding fewer reasons to flock to traditional safe-haven assets like gold. The allure of gold typically shines brightest in times of economic uncertainty and market volatility, which seem to be in short supply at the moment.

Adding to gold's woes is the recent retreat of hedge funds from the market. Hedge funds, often considered market influencers, have significantly reduced their exposure to gold. Net-long positions for gold have hit a five-month low, indicating a loss of confidence among these major players. Their exit from gold is a clear signal that the once-beloved precious metal is currently struggling to attract investors.

XAUUSD: Gold Faces Uphill Battle Amidst Surging Real Yields_1

From a technical perspective, the situation appears precarious for gold. If there is no robust bounce above the $1,900 level this week, it will likely bolster the belief that a downtrend in gold has indeed been established. In such a scenario, the $1,800 to $1,810 range emerges as a potential technical target. This range has proven to be a formidable barrier for gold to surmount over the past three years.

Gold finds itself in an unusual and challenging position. Historically, it has been the go-to asset in times of uncertainty, but the current economic landscape presents a different picture. The strength of the global economy, coupled with hedge funds' retreat, is dampening gold's safe-haven appeal. As gold teeters on the edge of $1,900, investors are watching closely, hoping for a resurgence in its fortunes. For now, the precious metal faces an uphill battle against the formidable force of surging real yields and a market that appears to have moved on to greener pastures.

TRADE RECOMMENDATION

SELL XAUUSD

ENTRY PRICE : 1900

STOPLOSS : 1920

TAKE PROFIT : 1800

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

Comments

Add to Favorites

Daily News

Remarks of Officials

Central Bank

Forex

FastBull Events

FastBull Featured

Devin

Mohammad Omar

Recent Searches

Top Searches

Markets

News

Analysis

User

24/7

Economic Calendar

Education

Data

Set the Foundation in Light of the Mixed Technical Indicators

Fundamentals

Technical Analysis

Trading Recommendations

Go Short at the Highs as the Downward Structure Will Be Fully Extended

Fundamentals

Technical Analysis

Trading Recommendations

Continue to Hesitate

Fundamentals

Technical Analysis

Trading Recommendations

The Demand Begin to Decline, and the Rally of the Oil Price Is Hampered

Fundamentals

Technical Analysis

Buy at Lows Under a Clear Bottom

Fundamentals

Technical Analysis

Trading Recommendations

USDJPY: Is the USD/JPY Pair Set to Continue Its Bullish Momentum?

Recent Inflation Figures

Trade Woes with China

USD/JPY Outlook

TRADE RECOMMENDATION

Gold Faces Uphill Battle Amidst Surging Real Yields

TRADE RECOMMENDATION

SELL XAUUSD

Risk Disclosure