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Waiting for a Bearish Correction in the Short Term before Entering Technical Bulls
Summary:
Crude oil prices rose for the sixth week in a row, and the concerned OPEC+ meeting decided to increase production slightly, failing to ease market concerns about a widening supply gap. Some Asian countries are planning to buy more crude oil from Saudi Arabia despite the rise in oil prices being more significant than expected. Saudi crude oil will be particularly popular among Asian refiners in countries such as Japan and South Korea.
EXPIRED
115.500
Entry Price
123.300
TP
112.890
SL
72.734 -0.063 -0.09%
--
Pips
EXPIRED
112.890
SL
116.321
Exit Price
115.500
Entry Price
123.300
TP
Fundamentals
On Thursday, the OPEC+ coalition of oil producers agreed to increase output in July and August, but by only 0.4% of global demand. The decision will keep the crude oil market tight throughout the summer. U.S. employment rose more than expected in May, pointing to continued economic growth that will boost demand for crude and refined products.
In Asia, refiners in countries such as Japan and South Korea continued to buy Saudi crude oil despite a larger-than-expected rise in Saudi prices. Because these countries have been avoiding buying Russian crude oil after the Russia-Ukraine conflict. At least two Asian refiners intend to ask for more July purchases, according to sources. The refiners will submit applications to increase the purchases by the end of the day and be notified of the quotas by the end of the week.
In addition, downside risks remain to OPEC+ supply expectations in the second half of the year, given the European ban on Russian crude oil imports and the lack of progress in Iran nuclear talks. OPEC+'s latest production decision means summer crude output will boost by 200,000 bbl./day, with Russia keeping its quota and many countries falling behind. The agreement does not imply higher production later in the year but just brings forward the September share.
It shall be clarified that it is unreasonable to expect OPEC to release millions of barrels of crude to address the self-sanctioning of many buyers, especially European ones. If OPEC increases crude supply by 1.5 million bbl./day, there won't be any additional capacity when demand increases a month or two later. Unless Iranian supplies (which could immediately drive oil prices down by $10-$15/bbl.) are restored because of the Iran nuclear deal, the massive cut in Russian crude will keep prices above $100/bbl.
Technical Analysis
According to the 4-hour chart, the resistance of least risk remains uptrend as the price trades above the gimbal. That is, the price will surge from the first support at $113.70, in line with the 61.8% Fibonacci forecast and the 127.2% Fibonacci expansion. Alternatively, the price could recover the upside opportunity after a straight break below the first support and head towards the second support at $112.50.
Although crude oil prices continued to appreciate, the upward pressure has not stopped. Prices are bullish again near the highs and are expected to continue rising towards the target of $123.30. However, in the short term, a bearish correction would be expected before an opportunity to enter long positions. It is recommended to buy on dips.
Trading Recommendations
Trading direction: Long
Entry price: 115.50
Target price: 123.30
Stop loss: 112.89
Validity: 20:00:00, 2022/06/30
Support: 116.20/113.70
Resistance: 118.70
Risk Warnings and Disclaimers
You understand and acknowledge that there is a high degree of risk involved in trading. Following any strategies or investment methods may lead to potential losses. The content on the site is provided by our contributors and analysts for information purposes only. You are solely responsible for determining whether any trading assets, securities, strategy, or any other product is suitable for investing based on your own investment objectives and financial situation.
In the daily chart, BRENT oil prices oscillated to the upside. The previous session closed with a breakout bull candle, decisively breaking above the previous high of 118.2. This has opened further room for upside in the future.
In the weekly chart, XAUUSD is resisted near 1865. It has been blocked by this resistance for the third consecutive week. The indicator RSI is still located below 50. The overall downtrend has not been reversed, but there is a bearish pattern in the daily chart, so the short-term rebound strength and space are limited.
In the four-hour chart of the A50 index, the %K and %D form a golden cross and move upward; the moving averages are about to move unilaterally; the two EMAs of MACD stick back to the zero axis and are about to turn red again; the OBV two lines are in the middle band; the short-term and long-term trend lines intersect and disperse upward again, which are located in the middle band; the bulls long again to control the market.
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