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XAUUSD Dropped More Than $5 in European Session
Summary:
During the European session, gold price extended losses, dipping to 0.12% at $1820.2.
CLOSED
1822.00
Entry Price
1810.00
TP
1826.00
SL
2627.47 -21.86 -0.83%
120.0
Pips
Profit
1810.00
TP
1810.00
Exit Price
1822.00
Entry Price
1826.00
SL
Fundamentals
Gold slipped more than $5 to $1820.2/oz during the European session. Gold was under pressure again after the release of the initial jobless claims data yesterday.
The dollar is currently moving up to the short-term resistance at 104.3.
The Fed minutes in February showed that the FOMC completes its plans for further rate hikes and wants to maintain a restrictive policy stance for the foreseeable future. The Fed is expected to raise interest rates by 25bps each in March and May, with the terminal interest rate hitting 5.00%-5.25%. However, the final rate is expected to have a considerable risk in the uptrend, and the strength of the CPI and PCE and employment data could lead to a further rate hike after the Fed’s meeting in May. We continue to be bullish on holdings of 10-year U.S. Treasuries, as the Fed is likely to remain restrictive policy for a long time, leading to weaker economic growth later this year and in 2024.
US PCE data will be released tonight:
If the PCE data is lower than expected, the gold will rally, but the recovery may not be too strong, and $1845 remains the short-term pressure. However, gold may volatile in the first half of next week.If the PCE data is higher than expected, gold price will continue to fall, and may rebound due to “sell the news”. Of course, it is still a good choice to sell after the recovery. Because the expectation of a “50bps”hike continues to rise.
Technical Analysis 
The dollar index gained momentum during the European session. The market may digest stronger PCE data tonight. With the “sell the news” sentiment being pushed higher, it shows that the dollar is moving into 104.4, which is the closing resistance for the dollar after the price broke 104.28.
From technical analysis, the dollar is in a short-term bullish phase. The resistance of 104.28 has been broken and the pair remains above MA34.
In addition, the job market remains very hot, suggesting that the Fed will continue to raise interest rates, which support the dollar.
During the European session, XAUUSD dropped 0.12% to $1820.
Gold declined mainly due to the strong dollar and the expectation of the Fed rate hike rose gradually, coupled with the "initial jobless claims" data of the U.S. on May 2, which pushed the gold price down to $1817, the lowest price this month.
Gold continuously plummeted below the support level, and has broken through $1822, which the price is in a downward trend. The price is below MA34, so the pressure is still on and gold might be strong.
Trading Recommendations
Trading Direction: Long
Entry Price: 1822
Target Price:1810
Stop Loss: 1826
Support: 1817
Resistance: 1827 - 1830
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