It Takes Time to Digest the Hawkish, and the Pursuit of High Gold Prices Is Untimely

Commodity

Summary:

The main trading logic of the market at present is to digest the external tightening. However, both the long and short positions are relatively blunted. The jobless claims and core PCE data this week need to be paid attention.

SELL XAUUSD

Close Time

CLOSED

1790.00

Entry Price

1758.00

1822.00

2902.57 -5.46 -0.19%

320.0

Pips

Loss

1758.00

1822.01

Exit Price

1790.00

Entry Price

1822.00

Fundamentals

The NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI) didn’t rise but fell unexpectedly, setting a new record for the longest decline in 12 consecutive months. The US NAHB Housing Market Index(HMI) came in at 31 in December, the lowest since April 2020, with the market expecting 34 vs. 33 previously. It has heightened investor fears of the U.S. recession. While Germany's IFO Business Climate Index rose to 88.6 in December from 86.4 in the previous month, better than market expectations. Among the sub-indicators, except for the construction index, which fell slightly month-on-month, the manufacturing, services, and trade indices all increased month-on-month.

ECB officials continue to hawk. Luis de Guindos, ECB Vice President, said rate hikes would maintain a pace similar to the recent 50 BPs as officials try to curb price spikes. Meanwhile, Peter Kazimir, one of the ECB Governing Council members said that interest rates must not only enter the restrictive territory but also stay there longer. Strong actions should be taken at least in the first half of 2023.

At present, the current expectations of the Fed to slow down interest rate hikes have been fulfilled. And the world's major central banks are still in the monetary tightening cycle. Judging by the statements of US and European central bank officials, the timing and intensity of subsequent tightening may be higher than previously expected. Although gold prices are still supported by the weakness in U.S. Treasury yields and the risk of a global recession, the hawkish Fed’s and ECB’s rate hikes, and the dollar's sharp rebound are expected to further weigh on gold prices. Besides, the peaking signal of technicals for gold prices has also been further strengthened, and further downside risks to short-term gold prices need to be beware.

Technical Analysis

Trading at the daily chart, the Long Black Body was recorded after gold prices shaping a Doji Star pattern at the high, which has formed the peak signal of the "Evening Star" again. For MACD, after the bearish divergence, a death cross is initially formed and continues to go wider, which has strengthened the signal. In addition, Gold prices fell back below the MA200 again, and the risk of short-term peaking has further increased. It is recommended to focus on the support around the MA20 at 1778.62. The bearish signal in the future will be heightened if this support was broken.

XAUUSD: It Takes Time to Digest the Hawkish, and the Pursuit of High Gold Prices Is Untimely_1

Trading Recommendations

Trading Direction: Short

Entry Price: 1790.00

Target Price: 1768.00

Stop Loss: 1822.00

Support: 1768.32/1728.37

Resistance: 1807.72/1814.36

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

You understand and acknowledge that there is a high degree of risk involved in trading. Following any strategies or investment methods may lead to potential losses. The content on the site is provided by our contributors and analysts for information purposes only. You are solely responsible for determining whether any trading assets, securities, strategy, or any other product is suitable for investing based on your own investment objectives and financial situation.

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Jan Aldrin Laruscain

Forex

Summary:

The GBP has posted underwhelming figures as recent Industrial Trends runs lower orders and exports with the data release showing -3 variation from forecasted on CBI Industrial Trends Orders and -12 difference from previous on CBI Industrial Price Export Orders. The glooming data triggered GBPCHF to trade lower by -1.75% from previous candle low in just two days. The dump has opened up a short opportunity at the premium range of the impulse.

SELL GBPCHF

EXP

EXPIRED

1.14150

Entry Price

1.11862

1.14649

1.13342 +0.00652 +0.58%

Pips

EXPIRED

1.11862

1.11825

Exit Price

1.14150

Entry Price

1.14649

Technical Analysis

GBPCHF is South-bound – Weakened Industrial Output Expectation delivers short-selling opportunity_1

The daily timeframe of the Pound Swissie has painted a clear change of trend—with the base of the move being an expansionary consolidation as depicted through the wicks prior through the strong bearish candle. The conviction of the market to move further down is represented through the breaking of the December 7 pivot low and November 30 Old Pivot Low. As of the moment, the team is anticipating a possible retracement up. Prior to the next impulse.

GBPCHF is South-bound – Weakened Industrial Output Expectation delivers short-selling opportunity_2

Narrowing down to our entry timeframe, the team expects a decent retracement to the 61.8% retracement level—ultimately recovering inefficient pricing caused by the sudden flush of the GBPCHF. Our team is looking at an entry along 1.14070 area as it is in well confluence with the turncoat resistance and Fibonacci retracement level—and in addition, is supplemented by the tailwinds of the recent unfavorable CBI data which weakened GBP’s turnaround capabilities. With so, we are flagging 1.14073 as the start of sell zone with a stop loss of 1.14649 and a take profit level of 1.11862—offering an above 3 RR.

SELL LIMIT RANGE 1.14073 – 1.14321

STOP LOSS – 1.14649

TP – 1.11862

TYPE OF TRADE : SWING (1 WEEK DURATION)

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Damon

Commodity

Summary:

Speculative net long positions are still decreasing, and market confidence needs to be further restored, with no basis for a big drop later.

BUY WTI

Close Time

CLOSED

76.385

Entry Price

78.500

72.000

72.924 +0.741 +1.03%

211.5

Pips

Profit

72.000

78.504

Exit Price

76.385

Entry Price

78.500

Fundamentals

Last week, oil prices fell after surging higher, and after rallying 10% for three consecutive days at the beginning of the week, oil prices dropped again on Thursday and Friday, especially on Friday when it plunged 3.5% during the day due to the fall in market risk appetite. The main reasons were further interest rate hikes by major global central banks and a stronger dollar. On December 15, the ECB raised interest rates for the fourth consecutive time, but the 50-basis point hike was smaller than the previous two meetings; the central bank pledged to raise rates further and laid out plans to pull money out of the financial system as part of its efforts to fight runaway inflation.

Also, ECB President Christine Lagarde said at a press conference that there remains the risk of upward inflation, which would require further policy tightening. The BoE also raised its key interest rate by 50 basis points and indicated that further rate hikes are possible. In addition, investors are concerned about the risk that the Fed may continue to raise interest rates next year which could lead to an economic recession, supporting a rising dollar and also depressing oil prices.

Overall, the current confidence in the oil market is still at a low level. The latest position report shows that speculative net long positions are still falling slightly, which also means that for the current stage of oil prices, investors' decisions are more cautious. And this is in line with the performance of the stabilization phase for oil prices after the big drop. Market confidence still needs to be further restored, and it is recommended to follow up on whether the demand side can further improve as expected to bring positive signals to the market. Besides, the probability of continuing to plunge is very small.

Technical Analysis

In the daily chart, oil prices are oscillating near the 5-day and 10-day moving averages seeking support. At present, the 5-day moving average is up through the 10-day moving average, with a certain bullish momentum in the short term; If it goes through the 20-day moving average later, the signal will be further enhanced. Meanwhile, the MACD is forming a golden cross at the bottom, giving a bullish signal. WTI: Market Confidence to Be Further Restored After Big Drop _1

WTI: Market Confidence to Be Further Restored After Big Drop _1

Trading Recommendations

Trading direction: Long

Entry price: 75.000

Target price: 78.500

Stop loss: 72.000

Support: 72.000/67.000

Resistance: 78.500/82.500

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Ricardo Nguyen

Commodity

Summary:

Brent's oil prices have recovered, and then they're going down. Today's oil price is trading at 80.4/tank 1%at the level of day

SELL BRENT

Close Time

CLOSED

80.982

Entry Price

75.670

83.300

76.617 +0.801 +1.06%

231.8

Pips

Loss

75.670

83.337

Exit Price

80.982

Entry Price

83.300

basic information

Qatar thinks the oil price is 65 USD/barrel in five 2023, higher than 55-5-5-5/barrel of this year.

Citigroup: need is weaker, a supply from Russia and Russian members of OPEC are more powerful than the market of hope to put the oil to pressure. Citigroup, we cut down the raw oil prices.

EU's papers show that the new proposal of EU's new draft about removing the burning prices if they lead to higher fundraising calls.

International energy forums (IEF): global oil decrease 22000/yearly crates in the month of Russia, Saudi Arabia and U.S. is cutting down.

chart analysis

Brent prices after breaking down the 82 support, you're heading towards 75.54. 454. And then the cost of the old support threshold, now 82-9's role-close is a new resistance of the oil. After the key level test and you can't break it, the oil price is going down.

In H4 and D1 the price is still under EMA 100 Street. This proves that the trend is still very strong, with the Russian's ceiling pressure, it's also pushing the price of a lower dilation.

The Qatar's pine firm says the oil prices can hit 55/barrel.

set up a deal

Xu's trading post: SELL

Command prices: 80.982

Words: 75.670

Block block: 83.300

Affirmative: 81.00、8383

Fame support: 75.83、75.613

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Jan Aldrin Laruscain

Forex

Summary:

Despite Germany’s better than expected Business Climate with a forecast of 87.4 and an actual value of 88.6, the headwinds failed to hoist the sail and redirect the direction of EURUSD’s boat as the market has seemingly locked in with a stronger dollar following continuous monetary contraction. Paving way to potentially shorting EURUSD.

SELL EURUSD

Close Time

CLOSED

1.06225

Entry Price

1.05822

1.06423

1.03347 +0.00285 +0.28%

19.8

Pips

Loss

1.05822

1.06434

Exit Price

1.06225

Entry Price

1.06423

Technicals

EURUSD has seemed to pushed lower despite strong data from the Eurozone - with the market printing continuous lower lows which are depicted through the grey circles in the 4 hour chart. With price’s recent bearish impulse which broke previous pivot low, this can be a confirmation that market is creating substructure to gradually reach the turncoat support along the 1.05700 levels. As an added confluence, market has also printed a bearish trendline. The market has also just recently responded to a resistance it recently tapped as depicted by the long candlewicks during earlier’s trading session.

EURUSD: Weak Fundamental Headwinds of Eurozone _1

Going down to our smaller/entry timeframe, the team is looking at a strong short entry or sell limit along the 1.06225 as this is well supported by the 50SMA, 38.2% retracement level, and a minor resistance level from the 1 hour chart. We are hoping to target the 4 hour turncoat support as the profit taking area given that it will be the next point of interest in the higher timeframe.

EURUSD: Weak Fundamental Headwinds of Eurozone _2

ENTRY

SELL LIMIT 1.06225

SL 1.06423

TP 1.05822

DURATION 2 DAYS

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Eva Chen

Forex

Summary:

The EURUSD in the 1D timeframe shows that the bulls remain in control despite the wait-and-see situation. The EURUSD is currently moving horizontally above its SMAs, while the technical indicators lack directional power, but are still well above the midline, with no sign of upward fatigue.

SELL EURUSD

Close Time

CLOSED

1.06700

Entry Price

1.05000

1.07360

1.03347 +0.00285 +0.28%

5.8

Pips

Profit

1.05000

1.06642

Exit Price

1.06700

Entry Price

1.07360

Fundamentals

The EURUSD opened the week with positive momentum slightly below the 1.0600 level, slightly cutting some of its recent gains due to an overbought signal on the board.

In particular, the RSI continues to move sideways above the neutral mark of 50 after retracing below 70, reflecting continued buying interest, while the stochastics and MACD are seeking a downside reversal, suggesting that caution is still needed.

However, traders may continue to push the EURUSD higher as it maintains a clear bullish structure in the near term, having recently expanded above a key long-term downtrend line.

EURUSD: Opportunities for Going Both Long and Short Due to Lack of Directional Choice_1

Technical Analysis

The EURUSD currently seems to be bottoming again around 1.0580, where the 50-week SMA in the 4H timeframe is supporting the bulls. If the bulls continue to consolidate the uptrend at this level, then the EURUSD is expected to test 1.0700 again. From here, a continuation of the move higher would give the bulls an unimpeded path to the 50% Fibonacci retracement of the 2021-2022 downtrend (1.0945).

On the downside, if it breaks below 1.0580, the downtrend could be supported by a 20-day SMA near 1.0550. If the bears continue to take control, the 200-day SMA and the surface of the broken bullish channel could provide support in the 1.0400-1.0367 area. Note that the 50-day SMA is also converging in this zone. Therefore, a decisive (closing) decline could confirm the bearish downside to a 23.6% Fibonacci pullback (1.0194). If the bearish momentum continues, the bears could test the integer threshold of 1.0000.

Overall, despite some weakness in market sentiment, the EURUSD still has a basis for further gains. But whether the bulls can go higher depends on whether the bottom of 1.0580 is broken. There are opportunities for going both long and short.

Trading Recommendations

Trading direction: Short

Entry price: 1.0670

Target price: 1.0500

Stop loss: 1.0736

Deadline: 2023-01-02 23:55:00

Support: 1.0657, 1.0690, 1.0736

Resistance: 1.0580, 1.0552, 1.0502

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Mohammad Omar

Forex

Summary:

The German economy might show strong volatility following the release of the PPI data on 20-12-2022 at 11:00 AM (GMT +4) with an expected result of -2.6%. A bullish fundamental signal is already there for the EURUSD.

BUY EURUSD

Close Time

CLOSED

1.05950

Entry Price

1.07000

1.05500

1.03347 +0.00285 +0.28%

30.9

Pips

Profit

1.05500

1.06259

Exit Price

1.05950

Entry Price

1.07000

Fundamentals

The German PPI report for November will be released on December 20, 2022. The PPI is one of the major monthly indicators that affect the market widely, it measures the change in the price of goods sold by manufacturers. A higher-than-expected data is bullish for the EUR, and lower-than-expected data is bearish for the EUR. The data is expected to come out at -2.6%, an increase of 1.6% from the previous result. If everything went as expected bulls will interfere and a major increase in EURUSD will be noted.

EUR is expected to rise to the 1.07 level breaking the resistance level, but it is expected to recover from a further increase in the upcoming days affected by the future interest rate decision by the FOMC, the interest rate in Europe, U.S – China tensions, and the overall world political situation.

Major traders are holding their positions on EURUSD for further increases in the prices.

German PPI Chart

EURUSD： we Might See an Increase in EURUSD Pair_1

Technical Analysis

EURUSD： we Might See an Increase in EURUSD Pair_2

The daily EURUSD pattern shows a bullish engulfing with possible prices touching the 1.07 level.

Support and resistance

1.0601

1.0595

1.0586

Pivot 1.0610

1.0630

1.0625

1.0616

Trading Recommendations

Trading Direction: Long

Entry Price: 1.0595

Target Price: 1.0700

Stop Loss: 1.0550

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Data

It Takes Time to Digest the Hawkish, and the Pursuit of High Gold Prices Is Untimely

Fundamentals

Technical Analysis

Trading Recommendations

GBPCHF is South-bound – Weakened Industrial Output Expectation delivers short-selling opportunity

Technical Analysis

Market Confidence to Be Further Restored After Big Drop

Fundamentals

Technical Analysis

Trading Recommendations

Raw oil is in a trend to return

basic information

chart analysis

set up a deal

EURUSD: Weak Fundamental Headwinds of Eurozone

Technicals

ENTRY

Opportunities for Going Both Long and Short Due to Lack of Directional Choice

Fundamentals

Technical Analysis

Trading Recommendations

we Might See an Increase in EURUSD Pair

Fundamentals

Technical Analysis

Trading Recommendations

Risk Disclosure