ADP

The 2024 economy has become boring.

After September’s surprising boost in job gains delivered clarity on the strength of the U.S. economy, Helene and Milton are likely to influence economic data in the weeks and months ahead. Here’s what to watch.

There were a few data signals going into last Friday’s blockbuster jobs report that many market watchers and economists missed.

The Federal Reserve’s move to cut its benchmark interest rate by half a percentage point won’t likely be felt immediately by its primary targets, employers, and households.

For the last two years, economists and market strategists have been intensely engaged in a debate over this question: Is the U.S. economy headed for a hard or soft landing?

Data released on Thursday showed that the U.S. ADP employment grew by 99,000 in August, the smallest gain since January 2021, significantly less than the expected 145,000. It was a signal of further easing of the U.S. labor market, and expectations for a Fed rate cut in September have heated up.

This week’s Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium is focusing on a broader issue: reassessing the effectiveness and transmission of monetary policy.With positive recent data on inflation, labor markets, and consumer spending, the Fed appears to be navigating towards a soft economic landing. Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium will be closely watched.Attendees will weigh how the economy reacts, or doesn’t react, to Fed rate decisions.

While Wall Street is quick to react to data signals, Main Street responds to on-the-ground economic conditions, which take longer to decipher.

In the days leading up to last week’s July jobs reports, positive GDP and inflation news had boosted investor confidence that a soft landing of the U.S. economy was not only achievable, but also close at hand.