JPMorgan

All of this suggests that most investors should consider some adjustments entering 2025. But in deciding precisely what to do, it is first important to understand initial conditions, as we exit 2024.

At this Wednesday’s meeting, the Fed may well signal a shallower path for interest rate cuts over the next year or two.

Google commands 89% of the global search engine market, Apple holds 51% of the U.S. mobile phone and tablet market, Microsoft powers 62% of desktop operating systems, and Facebook and Instagram together capture 57% of the social media market.

Crypto’s appeal has largely been its alpha generation potential, but even here challenges persist. While Bitcoin’s returns have been impressive, they’ve come with extraordinary volatility, four times that of the S&P 500.

While it may be premature for the Fed to incorporate tariff implications into monetary policy decisions, current data on resilient growth, healthy labor markets and other factors suggest that the Fed's path will be gradual, possibly settling at a higher level than their latest projections indicate.

This week will be full of market-moving economic data.

Policy forecasts at this stage are still highly speculative, but they don’t seem to spell disaster for the economy or markets in the short run.

Altogether, markets are currently expecting S&P 500 earnings growth to accelerate from 0% in 2023 to 9% this year, followed by an impressive 15% in 2025 and 13% in 2026.

The most notable growth in liabilities under COVID-era quantitative easing (QE) were bank reserves (+$2trn) and the reverse repo facility (RRP) (+$2.3trn).