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[QCP Capital: Bitcoin Is Expected To Fluctuate By About 3.5% On Election Night, And The Market May Underestimate The Risks After The Election] QCP Capital, A Crypto Investment Institution In Singapore, Published An Article Stating That In The Stock Market, Bond Market And Cryptocurrency Market, As The Most Stalemate Presidential Election In US History Is About To Kick Off, The Market's Anxiety Is Becoming More And More Obvious. The "Trump Trade" (i.e. Betting On A Stronger Dollar, Rising Cryptocurrencies And Rising Treasury Yields) Has Gradually Heated Up On The Eve Of The Election, Thanks To Trump's Leading Position In The Prediction Market. However, If Harris Ultimately Wins, These Gains May Be Quickly Wiped Out, Causing The Market To Fluctuate Violently Overnight. The Cryptocurrency Market Currently Expects Bitcoin Spot Prices To Fluctuate By About 3.5% On Election Night. But Traders May Underestimate The Risks After The Election: The Lack Of A Volatility Premium After November 8 Suggests That The Market Expects A Quick Election Result, But May Underestimate The Impact Of Potential Delays Or Controversial Results. The Results Of The Congressional Elections Are Equally Crucial And May Even Have The Same Influence As The Results Of The Presidential Election. If The Republicans Win Big, It Could Mean Higher Fiscal Deficits In The Future, Prompting The Federal Reserve To Take A More Hawkish Stance - Which Would Certainly Be A Bad Situation For Risky Assets. Conversely, If The Legislature Is Split, Markets May Be More Stable And Volatility Will Taper Off. Currently, The Options Market Shows A Balance Between Calls And Puts. Both The Upper Calls And Lower Puts Have Seen A Lot Of Buying In The Past Few Days. However, Bitcoin Is Still Seen As Part Of The "Trump Trade." On Monday, The Spot Price Of Bitcoin Fell As Spot ETFs Saw Large Outflows, Which Coincided With The Results Of A Poll That Showed Harris Holding A Narrow Lead In Iowa. As The Election Results Are Announced Tomorrow, The Spot Price Of Bitcoin Is Expected To Fluctuate Wildly
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