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【Citic SEC Recommends That The Consumer Industry Gradually Shift From A Balanced Allocation To A Flexible Allocation.】Citic SEC'S Research Reports Indicate That In November 2024, Retail Sales Growth Year-On-Year Will Be 3.0%, Lower Than Wind'S Consensus Expectation Of +5.3%. The Weakness In Retail Sales In November Was Primarily Affected By The Advance Of Promotions And Weak Consumer Demand, But Categories Like Home Appliances, Furniture, And Dining Performed Well. It Is Expected That Continued Policy Efforts Will Support Retail Sales Figures. Although Current Consumer Valuations Have Experienced A Short-Term Increase, They Remain At Reasonable Levels. On The Operational Side, Even Without Considering Potential Policy Boosts, The Majority Of Consumer Industries, Especially Those More Essential, Are Expected To Stabilize In The Fourth Quarter Of 2024 As Base Pressure Eases. Moreover, The Second Quarter Of 2025 May Become A Bottoming Window For Pressure In Most Consumer Industries. The Current Recommendation Is To Gradually Shift From A Balanced Allocation To A Flexible Allocation: Balanced Allocation Includes Consumer Internet, Dairy Product With Low Valuations And High Returns That Are Likely To Stabilize First, And Mass Dining Sectors. Flexible Allocation Includes Industries With Clear Pro-Cyclical Characteristics Such As The Dining Supply Chain, Alcoholic Beverages, Human Resources Services, And Hotels. The Current Top Picks Are Companies Related To The Dining Industry Chain That Are Expected To Recover First, As Well As Potential Beneficiaries Of Policies Like Fertility Policies And Consumption Vouchers
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