Industrial Producer Prices In The Euro Area

Summary:

July 2024 compared with June 2024，Industrial producer prices up by 0.8% in both the euro area and the EU.Down by 2.1% in the euro area and by 1.9% in the EU compared with July 2023.

Overview

In July 2024, compared with June 2024, industrial producer prices increased by 0.8% in both the euro area and the EU, according to first estimates from Eurostat, the statistical office of the European Union. In June 2024, industrial producer prices grew by 0.6% in both the euro area and the EU.

In July 2024, compared with July 2023, industrial producer prices decreased by 2.1% the euro area and by 1.9% in the EU.

Monthly comparison by main industrial grouping and by Member State

In the euro area in July 2024, compared with June 2024, industrial producer prices decreased by 0.1% for intermediate goods;increased by 2.8% for energy;remained stable for capital goods;decreased by 0.1% for durable consumer goods;decreased by 0.1% for non-durable consumer goods.

Prices in total industry excluding energy decreased by 0.1%.

In the EU, industrial producer prices remained stable for intermediate goods;increased by 2.5% for energy;remained stable for capital goods;decreased by 0.1% for durable consumer goods;remained stable for non-durable consumer goods.

Prices in total industry excluding energy decreased by 0.1%.

The highest monthly increases in industrial producer prices were recorded in Bulgaria (+3.6%), Greece (+2.9%) and Romania (+2.7%). The highest decreases were observed in Sweden (-0.9%), Finland (-0.7%) and Austria (-0.2%).

Annual comparison by main industrial grouping and by Member State

In the euro area in July 2024, compared with July 2023, industrial producer prices decreased by 1.2% for intermediate goods;decreased by 6.9% for energy;increased by 1.4% for capital goods;increased by 0.3% for durable consumer goods;increased by 1.0% for non-durable consumer goods.Prices in total industry excluding energy increased by 0.2%.

In the EU, industrial producer prices decreased by 1.2% for intermediate goods;decreased by 5.9% for energy;increased by 1.5% for capital goods;increased by 0.2% for durable consumer goods;increased by 0.9% for non-durable consumer goods.Prices in total industry excluding energy increased by 0.2%.

The largest annual decreases in industrial producer prices were recorded in Slovakia (-18.9%), Luxembourg (-6.7%) and Latvia (-6.0%). The highest increases were observed in Ireland (+6.1%), Romania (+2.7%) and Portugal (+2.0%).

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

You understand and acknowledge that there is a high degree of risk involved in trading. Following any strategies or investment methods may lead to potential losses. The content on the site is provided by our contributors and analysts for information purposes only. You are solely responsible for determining whether any trading assets, securities, strategy, or any other product is suitable for investing based on your own investment objectives and financial situation.

Add to Favorites

Warren Takunda

Economic

America’s employers posted fewer job openings in July than they had the previous month, a sign that hiring could further cool in the coming months.

The Labor Department reported Wednesday that there were 7.7 million open jobs in July, down from 7.9 million in June and the fewest since January 2021. Openings have fallen steadily this year, from nearly 8.8 million in January.

Layoffs rose from 1.56 million to 1.76 million, the most since March 2023, though that level of job cuts is roughly consistent with pre-pandemic levels, when the unemployment rate was historically low. Layoffs have been unusually low since the economy’s rapid recovery from the pandemic recession, with many employers intent on holding onto their workers.

Overall, Wednesday’s report painted a mixed picture of the job market. On the positive side, total hiring rose in July, to 5.5 million, after it had fallen to a four-year low of 5.2 million in June. And the number of people who quit their jobs ticked up slightly, to about 3.3 million. The number of quits is seen as a measure of the job market’s health: Workers typically quit when they already have a new job or when they’re confident they can find one.

Still, quits remain far below the peak of 4.5 million reached in 2022, when many workers shifted jobs as the economy accelerated out of the pandemic recession. The spike in quits at that time helped drive up wage gains as companies jacked up pay to try to find or keep employees. The current lower level of quits suggests that wage increases will likely remain modest, which should help further cool inflation.

Stephen Stanley, an economist at Santander, noted that July’s job openings are still about 7% above 2019 levels, when hiring was healthy.

“Labor demand is still solid, albeit moderating,” he said.

Wednesday’s figures indicate that fewer companies are seeking to add workers despite recent data showing that consumer spending is still growing. Last week, the government estimated that the economy expanded at a healthy 3% annual rate in the April-June quarter.

In July, job openings fell sharply in health care and state and local government and also dropped in warehousing and transportation. Openings rose in manufacturing and professional and business services, a category that includes legal services and engineering and accounting.

Even as openings have fallen for the past two years, there are still roughly 1.1 job openings for every unemployed person, Wednesday’s report showed. That reflects the economy’s continuing need for workers and marks a reversal from before the pandemic, when there were always more unemployed people than available jobs.

The July report on job openings is the first of several measures this week of the labor market’s health that the Federal Reserve will be watching closely. If clear evidence emerges that hiring is faltering, the Fed might decide at its next meeting Sept. 17-18 to start cutting its benchmark interest rate by a relatively aggressive half-percentage point. If hiring remains mostly solid, however, a more typical quarter-point rate cut would be likelier.

On Thursday, the government will report how many laid-off workers sought unemployment benefits last week. So far, most employers are largely holding onto their workers, rather than imposing layoffs, even though they have been slower to add jobs than they were earlier this year.

On Friday, the week’s highest-profile economic report — the monthly jobs data — will be released. The consensus estimate of economists is that employers added 163,000 jobs in August and that the unemployment rate ticked down from 4.3% to 4.2%.

Last month, the government reported that job gains slowed in July to just 114,000 — far fewer than expected and that the second-smallest total in 3 1/2 years — and the unemployment rate rose for a fourth straight month.

Those figures sparked fears that the economy was seriously weakening and contributed to a plunge in stock prices. Late last month, Fed Chair Jerome Powell underscored the central bank’s increasing focus on the job market, with inflations steadily fading.

In a speech at an annual economic symposium in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, Powell said that hiring has “cooled considerably” and that the Fed does not “seek or welcome further cooling” in the job market. Economists saw those comments as evidence that the Fed may accelerate its rate cuts if it decides it is needed to offset a slowdown in hiring.

Source: AP

To stay updated on all economic events of today, please check out our Economic calendar

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

Add to Favorites

Bank of Russia

Monthly Summary

Current growth of prices was persistently high between July and August, including in the underlying components of inflation. A further rise was seen in household and business inflation expectations. At the same time, there were tentative signs of an emerging disinflationary trend, with demand posting a more moderate pace. This came on the back of a slowdown in retail lending and less dynamism in household consumption. This is expected to encourage a switch to more moderate production plans and, combined with gradually increasing productivity, help soften a tight labour market.

In July, the seasonally adjusted growth of consumer prices – even excluding utility rates – was highest since the start of the year. It was driven by fruit and vegetable and petrol prices. However, considerably less growth was seen in the underlying components of inflation. While seasonally adjusted price growth declined in August, it is premature to speak of a steady reduction in inflationary pressures. To return inflation to 4% in 2025, tighter monetary conditions are needed than in 2024 H1. Whether this will require an additional increase in the key rate will depend on incoming data.

The July–August data and surveys mostly signal slower growth in economic activity, including in household consumption. Retail lending progressed at a slower pace, excluding car loans. Overall, this enables a gradual reduction in overheating in the economy and a transition to more moderate but sustainable growth, providing that price stability is achieved.

Between late July and August, developments in domestic financial markets were driven by a hostile geopolitical environment as well as an investor rethink on the timeframe of tight monetary policy. The foreign currency market grew more fragmented, with further complications in yuan-ruble pricing. Negative trends prevailed in the equity and fixed–income bond markets, while variable yield bonds and money market funds retained investor appeal.

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

Add to Favorites

Samantha Luan

Forex

USD/CAD moves sideways around 1.3510 during European hours on Thursday. Analysis of the daily chart indicates a bearish bias for the USD/CAD pair, as the nine-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) is positioned below the 14-day EMA.

Additionally, the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) remains near the 30 level, confirming the overall bearish trend in play but also suggesting a potential correction soon.

The momentum indicator Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) suggests a downward trend for the USD/CAD pair, as the MACD line is positioned below the centreline. However, the MACD line may crossover above the signal line, suggesting a potential weakening of the bearish trend.

On the downside, the USD/CAD pair tests the psychological level of 1.3500. A break below this level could reinforce the bearish bias and push the pair to navigate the region around the seven-month low at 1.3441, recorded on August 28.

In terms of resistance, the immediate barrier appears at the nine-day EMA at 1.3521 level, followed by the 14-day EMA at 1.3546 level. A breakthrough above these EMAs could weaken the bearish bias and lead the pair to test the "throwback support turns into a pullback resistance" level at 1.3590, followed by the psychological level of 1.3600.

Source: FXSTREET

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

Add to Favorites

Alex

Commodity

Shell has alleged that LNG producer Venture Global had wrongfully earned $3.5 billion from selling cargos from long-term contracts on the spot market instead.

According to a Financial Times report, Shell had commissioned a study “to assess how much more revenue Venture Global wrongfully earned by denying certain European customers their contracted cargoes”.

Shell did not stop there, however. It went on to allege that Venture Global had caused serious LNG sourcing difficulties for one company that had to resort to sourcing the gas from five other U.S. producer, incurring additional costs of $1.5 billion, the FT report also said. The report identified Poland’s state energy company Orlen as the one most exposed to Venture Global’s tactics.

The supermajor is one of several companies suing Venture Global for failing to deliver cargos contracted under long-term agreements and instead selling the gas on the spot market, using a loophole that allows it to trade on the spot market before its facility is officially finalized. Venture Global has been seeking to extend the construction period for its Calcasieu Pass LNG plant.

Once the Calcasieu Pass facility is officially recognized as completed and fully operational, Venture Global would need to start servicing its long-term contracts with Shell, BP, and Spain’s Repsol.

The three supermajors, along with two other European energy companies, were foundation buyers for the Calcasieu Pass facility, meaning they provided Venture Global with the money to build the place in Louisiana in exchange for a commitment from the company to supply them with certain volumes of LNG over a long-term period.

The facility has a capacity of 10 million tons, and it started producing in early 2022—right on time for Europe, which was beginning to experience a shortage. But instead of honoring its contracts with the European buyers, Venture Global chose to sell more LNG on the spot market.

Source: OILPRICE

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

Add to Favorites

Warren Takunda

Commodity

Crude oil prices fell for the second consecutive trading day amid weak economic data from both China and the US this week.

The WTI futures price dropped below $70 per barrel for the first time since December 2023, while Brent futures slumped to under $74 per barrel, a level not seen in nine months.

Both benchmark oil futures have plunged by more than 10% since their recent highs on 27 August.

Risk-aversion sentiment has also contributed to the downward pressure on the oil market, as the Nvidia-led tech selloff caused global markets to tumble on Tuesday.

Investors fled risky assets amid rising recession fears, with the CBOE Volatility Index, known as the market's fear gauge, spiking above 20 - the highest level in a month.

In late August, oil prices surged due to escalating military conflict between Iran and Israel, alongside production disruptions in Libya, which also fuelled the upsurge.

However, concerns of a wider regional war have eased as recession fears overshadowed geopolitical tensions, and a potential resolution to Libya's dispute is expected to restore its oil output.

Rising fears of a recession

Several disappointing data releases from the US have sparked concerns about deteriorating economic conditions and a weakening oil demand outlook.

The world's largest economy reported a weaker-than-expected Manufacturing Purchasing Manager Index (PMI), indicating that factory activity contracted for the fourth consecutive month in August.

On Wednesday, the JOLTS job openings data also revealed that the number of available jobs fell to its lowest level since January 2021.

The worsening economic data has significantly increased the likelihood of a deeper rate cut by the Federal Reserve next month, causing the yield on 2-year and 10-year US government bonds to briefly reverse their inversion for the second time since 2022.

Shorter-term government bond yields are more sensitive to imminent interest rate movements.

Historically, an economic recession tends to occur when the spread between the two benchmark US government bond yields returns to positive territory after an inversion.

Furthermore, China, the world's largest oil importer, reported softer-than-expected Manufacturing PMI over the weekend, indicating that factory production remained in contraction for the third straight month in August.

China's Caixin Services PMI, released on Wednesday, also came in lower than expected, suggesting the country's economic recovery continues to falter.

OPEC+ to delay output increase

OPEC+ may delay its plan to increase production in October amid plunging oil prices, according to a report by Reuters.

The organisation had previously agreed to raise production by 180,000 barrels per day as part of its plan to gradually unwind output cuts.

Ongoing production cuts could provide some support to the weakened crude market, although the news has not immediately lifted prices because of the prevailing risk-averse sentiment.

In June, OPEC and its allies agreed to extend production cuts of 3.66 million barrels per day until the end of 2025, with additional voluntary cuts of 2.2 million barrels per day continuing until September this year.

The organisation, which supplies over 37% of the world's total oil, has been reducing output since 2022, leading to a total cut of 5.86 million barrels per day, representing 5.7% of global demand.

Source: EuroNews

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

Add to Favorites

Samantha Luan

Forex

KEY POINTS

WTI attracts some buyers on Thursday, albeit it lacks follow-through.

Demand concerns overshadow hopes for OPEC+ output hike delay.

The technical setup still seems tilted firmly in favor of bearish traders.

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) US crude Oil prices trade with a mild positive bias, just above the $69.00/barrel mark during the early European session on Thursday, albeit lack bullish conviction. The commodity remains well within the striking distance of the YTD low, around the $68.45 region touched the previous day and seems vulnerable to prolonging its downtrend witnessed over the past two months or so.

Reports that OPEC+ is discussing delaying its oil output increase scheduled to start in October turn out to be a key factor lending some support to Crude Oil prices. Apart from this, a subdued US Dollar (USD) demand further benefits the USD-denominated commodity. That said, persistent demand worries in China – the world's largest oil importer – and renewed fears about an economic downturn in the US act as a headwind for the commodity. This, along with a bearish technical setup, warrants some caution before confirming that the black liquid has formed a near-term bottom.

Crude Oil prices have been trending lower along a downward-sloping channel since early Jul. Adding to this, the commodity this week broke down through the $71.50 horizontal support. Furthermore, oscillators on the daily chart are holding deep in negative territory and are still away from being in the oversold zone. This, in turn, suggests that the path of least resistance for the commodity is to the downside and any meaningful recovery attempt is likely to get sold into, making it prudent to wait for strong follow-through buying before positioning for a further appreciating move.

From current levels, the $69.80 region, closely followed by the $70.00 psychological mark, might act as an immediate hurdle ahead of the overnight swing high, just below the $71.00 round figure. The subsequent move up could confront a stiff barrier and remain capped near the aforementioned support breakpoint, now turned resistance, near the $71.50 horizontal zone. The latter should act as a key pivotal point, which if cleared decisively should trigger a short-covering rally, which should allow Crude Oil prices to surpass the $72.50 intermediate resistance and aim to reclaim the $73.00 mark.

On the flip side, the YTD low, around the $68.45 region, could protect the immediate downside ahead of the $68.00 mark and the descending channel support, currently pegged near the $67.70-$67.65 area. A convincing break below the latter will be seen as a fresh trigger for bearish traders and drag Crude Oil prices to sub-$67.00 levels, or June 2023 swing low.

Source: FXSTREET

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

Add to Favorites

Daily News

Remarks of Officials

Central Bank

Forex

FastBull Events

FastBull Featured

Devin

Mohammad Omar

Recent Searches

Top Searches

Markets

News

Analysis

User

24/7

Economic Calendar

Education

Data

Industrial Producer Prices In The Euro Area

Overview

Monthly comparison by main industrial grouping and by Member State

Annual comparison by main industrial grouping and by Member State

US Job Openings Fall as Demand for Workers Weakens

Source: AP

Talking Trends: Signs of Slower Economic Activity

Monthly Summary

USD/CAD Price Forecast: Holds Ground Above 1.3500, Next Barrier Appears at Nine-day EMA

Source: FXSTREET

Shell Accuses Venture Global of Wrongfully Earning $3.5 Billion

Source: OILPRICE

Oil Prices Sink to Nine-Month Low Amid Global Economic Uncertainty

Rising fears of a recession

OPEC+ to delay output increase

Source: EuroNews

WTI Price Forecast: Sticks to Modest Recovery Gains Above $69.00, Not Out of the Woods Yet

KEY POINTS

Source: FXSTREET

Risk Disclosure