A Modest Sliver Lining For China And Hong Kong Stock Markets

Stocks

Summary:

The spread of PPI over CPI has widened which in turn may see a turnaround in the current negative profitability growth rate of China’s industrial enterprises. Technical analysis suggests the minor countertrend rally in the Hang Seng Index may extend.

Since the start of this week, the China and Hong Kong stock markets have rallied after one of the benchmark China stock indices sank to a 5-year low due to more forceful measures that clamped down on short-selling activities and President Xi’s in-person meeting with the China Securities Regulatory Commission that led to the intermediate replacement of the regulator party chief yesterday, 7 February.

The involvement of President Xi, the pinnacle of China’s top policymakers in an attempt to stop the rout that has wiped out close to US$7 trillion in market capitalization of the China and Hong Kong stock markets since the highs in 2021; has sent a potential signal to the markets that a stock market stabilization fund is likely to be announced soon after an idea of it backed by a fund size of US$278 billion from offshore accounts of Chinese state-owned enterprises was floated two week ago.

The benchmark CSI 300 Index has gained by +4.6% week-to-date as of 8 February at this time of the writing, similar positive movements are seen in the Hong Kong benchmark stock indices as well over the same period; Hang Seng Index (+2.6%), Hang Seng TECH Index (4.5%), and Hang Seng China Enterprises Index (+3.1%).

Previous attempts to shore up investors’ confidence over the past 12 months via piecemeal stimulus and policies have failed to enact sustainable bullish movements in the China and Hong Kong stock benchmark indices other than several bouts of “dead cat bounces”.

A silver lining within the deflationary forces

China PPI/CPI spread with Industrial Enterprise Total Profits as of Jan 2024 (Source: MacroMicro, click to enlarge chart)

Can this time round be different? The answer lies with the crux of the problem, the heightened deflationary risk spiral via the wealth effect destruction from a persistently weak property market in China.

No doubt, the latest data has indicated further weakness in consumer prices where the monthly CPI inflation rate for January has further decelerated in the negative territory to -0.8% y/y from -0.3% y/y in December 2023, its longest stretch of contraction since October 2009, and below consensus of -0.5% y/y.

On a slightly positive note, China’s producer prices have continued to fall for the 16th consecutive month but at a slower pace where PPI for January came in at -2.5% y/y, above -2.7% y/y in December, and consensus of -2.6% y/y, notching its softest drop in four months.

Given the slower pace of contraction in PPI, the spread between PPI and CPI has widened significantly in the past six months to -1.70 in January from -3.10 printed in August 2023.

This spread can be used as a proxy to measure the profitability of China’s industrial enterprises. A widening of the spread below zero is likely to indicate some form of recovery or turnaround in the current negative profitability growth of industrial enterprises. The cumulative Industrial Enterprise Total Profits y/y trend has indeed shown modest signs of recovery in the past six months; improving from -15.50% y/y recorded in July 2023 to -2.30% y/y in December 2023 (see Fig 1).

If the spread of PPI and CPI continues to widen, it may reduce the current bout of deflationary forces which in turn ignite more confidence in the stock market that potentially led to more pronounced countertrend rallies.

That said, consumer and business sentiment in China also needs to improve significantly to inspire major multi-month bullish trends to kickstart in the China and Hong Kong stock markets where the required catalysts are direct fiscal stimulus measures to boost spending which are lacking at this juncture.

Minor countertrend rally may extend in Hang Seng Index

Hong Kong 33 short-term trend as of 8 Feb 2024 (Source: TradingView, click to enlarge chart)

The price actions of the Hong Kong 33 Index (a proxy of the Hang Seng Index futures) have shed -3.5% in the past session from an intraday high of 16,420 printed yesterday, 7 February.

There are still several positive short-term technical elements to note; the current price action of the Index is still oscillating above its 20-day moving average, and the hourly MACD trend indicator has dipped down to retest its ascending support which in turn may translate into a bullish inflection for price actions.

Watch the 15,640 key short-term pivotal support (close to the 20-day moving average & 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the prior minor rally from the 5 February low to 7 February high) and clearance above the near-term resistance of 16,250 (also the 50-day moving average) may see the next intermediate resistance coming in at 16,525/16,725 (upper boundary of the minor ascending channel from 22 January low & 4/5 January minor swing highs area).

However, failure to hold at 15,640 invalidates the bullish tone for a further slide to expose the next intermediate support at 15,300. Failure to hold at 15,300 increases the risk of a retest on the major support of 14,600.

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Glendon

Young German workers are showing renewed interest in unionizing and industrial action, as the country's winter of industrial disruption continues.

In the latest action, Lufthansa ground crews are striking Wednesday with major disruptions to Frankfurt and Munich airports. After a train driver's union called a major strike at the end of January, security workers at most of Germany’s major airports walked off the job last week, while many local transport services were also out of action last Friday.

The union that called the latter strikes is one of Germany's biggest, Verdi, which has now described 2023 as its most successful year since its foundation in 2001. Representing 1.9 million service workers across a range of industries, Verdi welcomed 193,000 new members in 2023 — a net gain of 40,000.

Other unions have seen a similar trend. The small but high-profile train drivers' union GDL, which led last weekend's strike, recently reported an 18% rise in membership since 2015. Similarly, Germany's oldest trade union, the gastronomy union NGG, counted over 20,000 new members last year. Germany's Trade Unions: What's Behind the Wave of Strikes?_1

Germany's Trade Unions: What's Behind the Wave of Strikes?_1

Stefan Körzell, a leading board member at the German Trade Union Confederation (DGB), an umbrella organization for several major unions, welcomed the development, which has seen five of its eight member organizations increase membership last year.

"First of all we're really happy," he told DW. "This is a positive sign. We have an age pyramid like all the other membership organizations, like parties, churches and clubs. I think through some intelligent politics and intelligent representation of interests in the last two, three years we have managed to turn the trend."

A blip or a trend?

But Körzell was alert to the fact that last year appeared to be an anomaly, with union membership in Germany in a steady decline for decades. DGB membership overall has dropped from 9.3 million in the mid-1990s to 5.6 million now, mainly because of demographic shifts as an older generation of workers slowly disappears into retirement.

Just to keep up with these "natural" losses, a major union like Verdi needs to find at least 150,000 new members every year. In that context, the new rise in membership figures might be a blip. But it's a blip with good signs for the unions, as the numbers also show renewed interest among younger generations. According to Verdi, more than 50,000 of its new members are under the age of 28.

"We have that across the board," said Körzell. "Even those unions that didn't have more members in total at the end of the year did have more young people."

Thorsten Schulten, researcher at the Hans Böckler Foundation, which is associated with the DGB, believes Verdi owes its many new members mainly to recent labor disputes. But that doesn't mean the unions are deliberately driving the strikes to increase their own power.

"I think the unions are surprised themselves by how strong the support and the participation is from members," he said. "I think in certain areas they're being driven by the members."

Schulten thinks the current wave of industrial action is mainly the result of increasing social hardship. "We shouldn't forget that in the last few years, we've had historically high inflation rates, that employees have had to take some massive real-terms salary losses," he said. "And this has created real problems for people on low incomes […] and who if not a union can ensure that a compensation can be achieved?"

For his part, Körzell also thinks the development is partly down to the unions' roles in the recent economic crises caused by the COVID pandemic and the war in Ukraine. The unions, he said, have been instrumental in ensuring that there has been no mass unemployment, by collaborating with the government and companies to adjust to short-time contracts and negotiating compensation packages. Germany's Trade Unions: What's Behind the Wave of Strikes?_2

Germany's Trade Unions: What's Behind the Wave of Strikes?_2

Increasing pressures, more confident workers

Another important factor, according to Schulten, is that workers are realizing that the companies need them more than ever, in light of shortages on the labor market. "They're not scared of losing their jobs," he said. "But the shortage of skilled labor has not led automatically to better working conditions — there is a need for active engagement."

Marcel Fratzscher, head of the German Institute for Economic Research, agrees. "We have 1.8 million open jobs, and employees are getting more confident and saying: 'We want better working conditions and better pay,'" he told DW.

The problem, however, is that fewer jobs in Germany are tied to the collective bargaining commitments, which is what unions negotiate. Only 50% of jobs in Germany are covered by collective bargaining agreements designed to ensure certain industries pay decent wages — a long way behind the 80% target set by a European Union directive in 2022. That means that half of jobs in Germany are effectively out of reach for the unions — a problem the unions are trying to address.

"Of course, it's difficult to reach workers who don't have collective bargaining agreements," said Körzell. "But we have seen, for example, that even delivery riders are fighting together with us so that their companies also get such agreements."

Source:DW

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Alex

Commodity

The global oil industry will require $14 trillion in investments or about $610 billion annually, until 2045 to meet rising energy demand, Opec secretary-general Haitham Al Ghais said.

The Opec chief, who spoke at India Energy Week in Goa on Tuesday, said global oil demand "will continue to rise and there is a need to ensure that supply is maintained". He estimated that demand would rise between now and 2045 by 23 per cent.

Global oil demand growth is forecast to far outpace the expected rise in non-Opec supply over the next two years. The producer group has started charting its course to manage the market ahead. In its closely watched monthly oil market report, Opec estimated the world's thirst for oil to increase 2.25 million barrels per day in 2024 and another 1.8 million b/d in 2025.

In June 2023, the International Energy Agency said it expected global oil demand growth to slow significantly by 2028 as high prices and supply concerns hastened the shift to cleaner energy. Based on current policies and market trends, crude demand will rise by 6.0 per cent between 2022 and 2028 to reach 105.7 million bpd, supported by strong demand from the petrochemical and aviation sectors, the Paris-based agency said in its medium-term oil market report.

Ghais said the twin focus of the Indian government to pursue both fossil fuel growth as well as renewables is the right path to adopt. "The Indian government has said consistently that the future will require all forms of energy, which is a message that Opec fully supports," Ghais said.

Given India's future energy needs for its expanding and aspirational population and the fact that Opec member countries provide approximately 60 per cent of India's total crude oil imports, this strategic relationship would continue to be vital in the years and decades ahead, Ghais said.

"India will play a vital role in the future of the industry. According to our forecasts, oil demand in India is set to rise from 5.1 million b/d in 2022 to 11.7 million b/d by 2045. It will be the country with the largest oil demand growth over this period," he added.

Commenting on the evolving global energy industry, he said it has never been more important to work together and adopt a holistic, practical and inclusionary approach as the world concentrates on the task of providing energy security for all while reducing emissions.

"We continue to be aligned by the need for every nation and people to have their energy transition pathways. It is not a uniform energy transition for all. There are multiple pathways to take. There is no one-size-fits-all solution to a sustainable energy future," Ghais said. "No single source of energy will be able to fuel the global energy demand," he added.

India's oil demand is expected to double by 2045 to 38 million bpd from its current 19 million bpd, India's Prime Minister Narendra Modi said early at the event. "India's oil demand is expected to increase to 38 million barrels per day by 2045 from the current 19 million barrels. India is consistently growing its energy capacity. We aim to increase the share of natural gas to 15.0 per cent of primary energy from 6.0 per cent now. By 2030, the refining capacity will be at 450 mtpa in India," Modi said.

The Opec chief was also vocal about oil's place among the energy sources even as far out as 2045, saying that even as many nations around the world look to triple their renewable energy capacity, no single renewable source will be able to carry the weight of the global energy demand growth.

"We need to invest (in oil) to be able to ensure the security and reliability of the supply is maintained," Ghais said. Energy ministers from oil-booming Guyana and natural gas-abundant Qatar have said that while there is a need to bring renewable energies into the oil and gas sector, phasing out conventional energy sources such as fossil fuels is still a long way away.

According to a report by the International Energy Forum (IEF) and S&P Global Commodity Insights, a cumulative $4.9 trillion of investments in global upstream oil and gas are needed by 2030 to meet market needs and prevent a supply shortfall, even if demand growth slows toward a plateau.

Source：khaleejtimes

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Alex

The "Keys to the White House" are being handed out, predicting President Biden currently holds a slight lead in a hypothetical 2024 matchup against former President Donald Trump.

Allan Lichtman, an election prognosticator who has correctly predicted nearly every presidential race since 1984, developed a formula that is used to make predictions about an upcoming presidential election — and in many cases, it proves to be accurate.

Lichtman's "Keys to the White House" consists of 13 true or false questions that he believes establish a strong indication of who will be named the victor on the fall ballot. Each question is asked about the two dueling nominees; if "true" they are given a "key," and if "false," their competitor receives the point.

Thus far, Biden holds five of the "keys," while Trump was able to capture about three, Lichtman revealed to MarketWatch. That leaves five keys still up for grabs, and enough room for the former president to secure a lead before November.

According to American University, where Lichtman teaches, the "keys" are as follows: party mandate, contest, incumbency, third party, short-term economy, long-term economy, policy change, social unrest, scandal, foreign/military failure, foreign/military success, incumbent charisma and challenger charisma.

Biden's incumbency grants him one automatic point, that of key number three.

While Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. met the requirements to appear on the Utah presidential election ballot, Biden was granted another "key" for not appearing to have any significant third party or independent primary challenge.

The Democrat was also given "keys" for having "real per capita economic growth during the term equals or exceeds mean growth during the previous two terms," as well as implementing policy changes during his presidency.

Trump, however, secured key number one, which is granted to whoever's political party holds the majority in the House of Representatives — which goes to the GOP.

Painting Biden as having a lack of charisma, Lichtman gave Trump the 12th key, and possibly another point if Biden fails to have "a major success in foreign or military affairs."

Lichtman correctly predicted Trump would win the 2016 election, and thereafter that Biden would win the 2020 presidential election against Trump.

Source:FOX NEWS

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Owen Li

The 2024 presidential race is well underway as White House hopefuls jockey for their party’s nomination, the field narrows and the top contenders take shape.

Former President Donald Trump was the first to declare his candidacy for the Republican nomination in November 2022, vowing a comeback after his defeat in 2020 to President Joe Biden. Despite cooling enthusiasm from some in the party, Trump is still considered the front-runner for the nomination.

On the Democratic side, President Joe Biden declared his reelection bid in late April, setting up a possible rematch with Trump. He is campaigning on his first-term record and policy changes he hopes to enact with the opportunity of another term.

Joe Biden

Age: 81

Party: Democrat

Current and former roles: current president, former vice president, former senator from Delaware

Announcement date: April 25, 2023

Bio: Biden wants one more term to “finish the job,” he says in his reelection pitch to voters. The longtime Delaware resident, who was a senator for decades before serving as vice president under President Barack Obama, is running on his first-term record, touting accomplishments on infrastructure, the economy and civil rights. He is also running on a platform of protecting abortion rights and addressing LGBTQ issues. But he faces scrutiny over his advanced age and fitness – scrutiny he has only just started to address – and approval ratings that range from middling to dismal. With no serious Democratic challengers, Biden is considered the presumptive Democratic nominee to face off with the winner of the Republican primary. Who Is Running for President in 2024?_1

Donald Trump

Age: 77

Party: Republican

Current and former roles: Former president, real estate developer

Announcement date: Nov. 15, 2022

Bio: Trump has launched a third bid for the White House after losing to President Joe Biden in 2020. He is facing headwinds from a party that has become more uncertain about his role as its flag-bearer. Trump is also the subject of a number of federal and state investigations but has derided the probes as “witch hunts” and pledged to continue his run even if he were to be indicted. Despite his political baggage and recent challenges, Trump still commands a significant and enthusiastic base of supporters that could be the key to his nomination should the rest of the GOP field split the non-Trump vote. Who Is Running for President in 2024?_2

Nikki Haley

Age: 51

Party: Republican

Current and former roles: Former governor of South Carolina, former ambassador to the United Nations

Announcement date: Feb. 14, 2023

Bio: Haley was considered a rising star in the Republican Party when she became the first female governor of South Carolina in 2010. After serving two terms, Haley was appointed ambassador to the United Nations by President Trump. Though she initially said she would not challenge Trump for the nomination, Haley did a U-turn and has since leaned hard into her identity as a child of Indian immigrants. She has left her moderate roots to embrace the party’s current culture wars and has repeatedly called for a “new generation” of Republican leadership, while proposing mandatory cognitive testing for all politicians over the age of 75 – a thinly veiled shot at both Trump and Biden. Who Is Running for President in 2024?_3

Ryan Binkley

Age: Unknown

Party: Republican

Current and former roles: Business executive, pastor

Announcement date: April 23, 2023

Bio: Binkley is a CEO from Texas, where he helms Generational Equity Group, a mergers & acquisitions firm, and serves as the co-founder and lead pastor at a church in Richardson, Texas. Binkley is largely unknown at the national level, and is running a campaign focused on traditional conservative values. Who Is Running for President in 2024?_4

Marianne Williamson

Age: 71

Party: Democrat

Current and former roles: Author, activist and spiritual leader

Announcement date: March 4, 2023

Bio: Williamson, a prolific self-help author and former frequent guest on Oprah Winfrey’s show, is running for the White House for the second time, becoming the only Democrat thus far to challenge Joe Biden, who has not formally declared his candidacy but is broadly expected to run for reelection. Williamson ran for the Democratic nomination in 2020 but dropped out of the race just before primary elections were started. Williamson made headlines during that contest for unique and eyebrow-raising comments. She is running this time on a progressive agenda with an emphasis on social justice issues. Who Is Running for President in 2024?_5

Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

Age: 69

Party: Independent

Current and former roles: Author, environmental lawyer, anti-vaccine activist.

Announcement date: filed paperwork with the Federal Elections Commission on April 5, 2023

Bio: Kennedy – the son of Sen. Robert F. Kennedy, who was assassinated during his 1968 primary campaign, and the nephew of President John F. Kennedy – is an author and a trial lawyer who specialized in environmental law early in his career. He has emerged over the last decade and a half as a leading voice of the anti-vaccine movement, work which intensified during the COVID-19 pandemic. In 2021, Kennedy released a book titled “The Real Anthony Fauci," which disparaged the leading public health office in the country at the time and promoted misinformation about the coronavirus, vaccines and treatments. Though he enjoys the name recognition inherent in the Kennedy lineage, his anti-vaccine activism has been widely criticized, including by members of his own family, and puts him on the fringes of the Democratic Party. Kennedy, who began his White House bid as a Democrat, decided in October to run as an independent. Who Is Running for President in 2024?_6

Cornel West

Age: 70

Party: Independent

Current and former roles: Activist, philosopher, intellectual, author

Announcement date: June 5, 2023

Bio: A longtime activist whose work centers on race and class, West entered the presidential race under the banner of the People’s Party, a third-party, leftist group but is now running as an independent. West is a public intellectual and socialist who has been active in Democratic politics for decades, and backed Sen. Bernie Sanders’ Democratic presidential primary runs in 2016 and 2020.

“I enter in the quest for truth, I enter in the quest for justice, and the presidency is just one vehicle to pursue that truth and justice – something I’ve been trying to do all my life,” West said in an announcement video on June 5. Who Is Running for President in 2024?_7

Dean Phillips

Age: 54

Party: Democrat

Current and former roles: Current U.S. congressman from Minnesota, businessman

Announcement date: Oct. 27, 2023

Bio: The third-term member of Congress from Minnesota launched a last-minute bid for the White House citing concern that Biden cannot defeat Trump in a 2024 matchup. Phillips – considered a moderate Democrat – is among the wealthiest members of Congress, with ties to prominent liquor and gelato businesses. Who Is Running for President in 2024?_8

Ron DeSantis

Age: 45

Party: Republican

Current and former roles: Current governor of Florida, former U.S. congressman from Florida

Announcement date: May 24, 2023

Dropout date: Jan. 21, 2024

Bio: Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis was widely seen as the most formidable challenge to Trump’s bid following his landslide reelection as governor in November. The governor has leaned into culture war issues, declaring a war on “woke” culture and moving to the right of Trump on several issues. He has focused heavily on education reform, restricted racial diversity and inclusion efforts at the college level, and pushed through so-called “Don’t Say Gay” bills that ban the discussion of sexual orientation and gender issues in school. While DeSantis touted his policy agenda in Florida as a blueprint for the rest of the country, some Republicans worried that his heavy-handed policy-making and intense focus on culture war issues could alienate some voters, both in the primary and the general elections. Who Is Running for President in 2024?_9

Asa Hutchinson

Age: 73

Party: Republican

Current and former roles: Former governor of Arkansas, U.S. Representative and government official

Announcement date: April 2, 2023

Dropout date: Jan. 16, 2024

Bio: Hutchinson is a GOP veteran with a long resume, including stints as a member of Congress – when he was one of 13 House managers of the impeachment of former President Bill Clinton – a U.S. attorney, an undersecretary in the Department of Homeland Security and as head of the Drug Enforcement Administration. He most recently served as the governor of Arkansas from 2015 to earlier this year. Hutchinson comes from an earlier, more establishment-oriented wing of the party, and has carved out a lane for himself in the Republican primary by being among the few to openly criticize Trump and state that he should drop out of the race. That approach will likely alienate the roughly 30% of the Republican base that are diehard Trump supporters. Who Is Running for President in 2024?_10

Who Is Running for President in 2024?_10

Vivek Ramaswamy

Age: 38

Party: Republican

Current and former roles: Author, entrepreneur, investor and political activist

Announcement date: Feb. 21, 2023

Dropout date: Jan. 15, 2024

Bio: A Harvard graduate and multimillionaire biopharmaceutical entrepreneur, Ramaswamy has made a name for himself in conservative circles as a crusader against so-called “wokeness.”

“Faith, patriotism and hard work have disappeared, only to be replaced by new secular religions like Covidism, climatism and gender ideology,” Ramaswamy said in an announcement video.

He is the author of two books focused on opposition to social justice issues and rejects diversity, equity and inclusion efforts. He has spoken out in particular against environmental, social and governance (ESG) movements – a framework for corporations to use in financial decision-making. Ramaswamy announced his bid during an appearance on Fox News and is not as of now considered a serious contender for the nomination. Who Is Running for President in 2024?_11

Who Is Running for President in 2024?_11

Mike Pence

Age: 64

Party: Republican

Current and former roles: Former vice president, former governor of Indiana

Announcement date: Paperwork filed June 5, 2023

Dropout date: Oct. 28, 2023

Bio: Former Vice President Mike Pence took on his ex-boss and running mate Trump for the GOP nomination, attempting to position himself as a staunchly conservative – yet level-headed – option for voters tired of Trump’s brash leadership style. He is devoutly religious and targeted evangelical voters and others who share his socially and fiscally conservative policy viewpoint. Pence has backed a national abortion ban and other hard-line social policies. While he touts the accomplishments of the Trump-Pence administration, his challenge was to separate himself from the former president while also attempting not to alienate Trump supporters – some of whom would never vote for him because of his role in certifying the 2020 election results. Who Is Running for President in 2024?_12

Who Is Running for President in 2024?_12

Tim Scott

Age: 58

Party: Republican

Current and former roles: Current senator, former representative and South Carolina state representative

Announcement date: Paperwork filed May 19, 2023

Dropout date: Nov. 12, 2023

Bio: A senator from South Carolina and the only Black Republican senator in the chamber, Scott entered the race as a long-shot candidate with a sizable war chest and a number of backers. He leaned heavily on his personal story as a native South Carolinian and the son of an impoverished single mother, countering the doom-and-gloom narratives of some other candidates with one of optimism and the American Dream. Scott struggled to walk a tightrope on race with his party, calling out Republicans for racist comments while also slamming what he has described as Democrats’ political weaponization of racial issues. Who Is Running for President in 2024?_13

Who Is Running for President in 2024?_13

Chris Christie

Age: 61

Party: Republican

Current and former roles: Former governor of New Jersey

Announcement date: June 6, 2023

Dropout date: Jan. 10, 2024

Bio: A former U.S. attorney for the District of New Jersey, Christie was elected governor of the state in 2009 and reelected in 2013. He was embroiled in controversy during his second term, when communications from top aides showed that lane closures on a busy bridge were implemented in response to a Democratic mayor’s decision not to endorse Christie's reelection campaign. A federal investigation cleared Christie of direct involvement in the scandal, but the issue has continued to plague him. He ran for the GOP presidential nomination in 2016 but dropped out early in the primary, throwing his support behind Trump. After being a staunch Trump supporter during his term, Christie has done a U-turn, and now enters the primary as one of Trump’s biggest critics. Christie is expected to try to appeal to traditional Republicans, but he has struggled in early polls. Who Is Running for President in 2024?_14

Who Is Running for President in 2024?_14

Larry Elder

Age: 71

Party: Republican

Current and former roles: Attorney, author, conservative political commentator and California GOP gubernatorial candidate

Announcement date: April 20, 2023

Dropout date: Oct. 26, 2023

Bio: Elder is a conservative radio talk show host and regular on Fox News. He ran for office for the first time in California in 2021 during a failed recall election targeting Gov. Gavin Newsom, a Democrat. Though the recall failed by a big margin, Elder received the most votes of any replacement candidate. Elder has criticized Democrats’ focus on social justice issues, and he shares many of his fellow Republicans’ opinions on issues including COVID-19 mitigation measures and abortion. Elder has been a vocal supporter of former President Donald Trump and endorsed the former president when he withdrew from the race. Who Is Running for President in 2024?_15

Who Is Running for President in 2024?_15

Doug Burgum

Age: 67

Party: Republican

Current and former roles: Current governor of North Dakota

Announcement date: June 7, 2023

Dropout date: Dec. 4, 2023

Bio: The North Dakota governor launched a long-shot bid in early June, focusing on economic and social issues and stressing his small-town roots. Burgum, who was elected in 2016 and reelected in 2020, has put the economy as the country’s top priority. He has signed staunchly conservative laws in his state, including a ban on abortions after six weeks of pregnancy, with no exceptions for rape or incest. Burgum is unknown nationally and struggled to make the debate stage after the second confrontation. Who Is Running for President in 2024?_16

Who Is Running for President in 2024?_16

Perry Johnson

Age: 75

Party: Republican

Current and former roles: Businessman and author

Announcement date: March 2, 2023

Dropout date: Oct. 20, 2023

Bio: Johnson is a wealthy businessman who earned his fortune by founding Michigan-based Perry Johnson Registrars Inc., which certifies businesses for meeting industry regulations. Johnson ran for the 2022 Republican nomination for Michigan governor but was disqualified after the state board of elections determined that he submitted thousands of fraudulent signatures during the primary qualification process. Johnson ran an ad in Iowa – one of the early GOP primary states – during the Super Bowl and spoke at the Conservative Political Action Conference. He announced his campaign after that speech and based his campaign on a plan to cut federal spending by 2% every year. Who Is Running for President in 2024?_17

Who Is Running for President in 2024?_17

Steve Laffey

Age: 61

Party: Republican

Current and former roles: Former mayor of Cranston, Rhode Island, former investment banker

Announcement date: Feb. 2, 2023

Dropout date: Oct. 6, 2023

Bio: Laffey is a former investment banking executive who also served as the mayor of Cranston, Rhode Island, from 2003 to 2007. His long-shot bid was anchored by his calls for financial reform, including changes to Social Security and for the U.S. to stop trading with China. Laffey is unknown on the national level and struggled with name recognition. He has made a series of unsuccessful state-level runs for office in the past in Colorado. Who Is Running for President in 2024?_18

Who Is Running for President in 2024?_18

Will Hurd

Age: 46

Party: Republican

Current and former roles: Former U.S. congressman from Texas

Announcement date: June 22, 2023

Dropout date: Oct. 9, 2023

Bio: The former undercover CIA officer and member of Congress entered the race as an outspoken critic of Trump, warning of a Biden-Trump rematch in 2024. First elected to Congress in 2014, Hurd didn’t seek reelection in 2020 as his prospects in the competitive Texas district appeared to worsen after a narrow victory two years prior. Upon his withdrawal from the race for the GOP nomination, Hurd endorsed Haley for president. Who Is Running for President in 2024?_19

Who Is Running for President in 2024?_19

Francis Suarez

Age: 46

Party: Republican

Current and former roles: Current mayor of Miami

Announcement date: June 15, 2023

Dropout date: Aug. 29, 2023

Bio: The second-term mayor of Miami was among the last to announce a bid for the White House of the Republican field, running to be the first sitting mayor and first Hispanic president. Suarez became the first candidate to drop out, after he failed to qualify for the first GOP debate. Who Is Running for President in 2024?_20

Who Is Running for President in 2024?_20

Source:U.S.News

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Samantha Luan

Economic

Service-sector prices are rising as more companies hike wages and pass on rising labour costs, Shinichi Uchida said, signalling his growing conviction that conditions for phasing out stimulus were falling into place.

"If sustainable and stable achievement of our 2 per cent inflation target comes in sight, the large-scale monetary easing will have fulfilled its role and we'll explore whether it should be revised," Uchida said in a closely-watched speech in Nara, western Japan, on Thursday.

Ending negative interest rates, a move markets expect to happen either in March or April, would be equivalent to hiking short-term interest rates by 0.1 per cent percentage point, he said.

"Even if the BOJ were to end our negative interest rate policy, it's hard to imagine a path in which it would then keep raising the interest rate rapidly," Uchida said.

The remarks by Uchida, which were closely watched by markets due to his record of dropping key policy hints, heighten the chance the BOJ will soon pull short-term interest rates out of negative territory.

The yen and Japan's 10-year government bond yield fell, while the Nikkei stock average rose after the speech as investors reacted to his remarks ruling out the chance of rapid rate hikes.

Under the BOJ's massive stimulus programme, it guides short-term interest rates at -0.1 per cent and the 10-year government bond yield around 0 per cent. It also buys government bonds and risky assets to pump money into the economy.

Uchida said it would be "natural" for the BOJ to end its purchases of risky assets such as exchange-traded funds (ETF) and trust funds investing in property, once it judges that sustained achievement of 2 per cent inflation is within sight.

He also said the BOJ would not sharply reduce the amount of government bond purchases, and ensure long-term interest rates do not spike abruptly, upon ending its bond yield control.

"If the BOJ does revise the framework, it would incline more toward letting market forces determine interest rates," Uchida said. "In doing so, however, it will take careful measures so as not to create discontinuity before and after the revision."

A career central banker, Uchida has been deeply involved in crafting many elements of the BOJ's massive stimulus programme including negative interest rates and yield curve control (YCC). His views are thus seen as key to the timing and means of dismantling the programme.The BOJ has been laying the groundwork to end negative rates by April and overhaul other parts of its ultra-loose monetary framework, but is likely to go slow on any subsequent policy tightening amid lingering risks, sources have told Reuters.

Source:Reuters

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LONDON, UK: The Office for National Statistics (ONS) revealed that the UK's unemployment rate in late 2023 was significantly lower than previously reported, based on re-weighted survey results and updated population estimates.

This may influence the Bank of England's cautious approach to interest rate cuts.

The new data, incorporating the latest population estimates, shows an unemployment rate of 3.9 percent for the three months ending in November 2023. This contrasts with the temporary, experimental figure of 4.2 percent reported by the ONS in January.

The Bank of England closely monitors the UK labor market to assess whether inflationary pressures have subsided enough to justify reducing its benchmark interest rate, currently at 5.25 percent, the highest in nearly 16 years.

During the same period, the ONS reported an inactivity rate of 21.9 percent, up from 20.8 percent.

Economist Samuel Tombs of Pantheon Macroeconomics suggests this new data will likely prompt Bank of England officials to delay interest rate cuts, as the unemployment rate appears on track to fall below their projections.

"We still think that the (BoE) likely will reduce Bank Rate to 4.50 percent by the end of this year, from 5.25 percent, with the first step down coming in May - though the risks that the initial cut comes later are rising," Tombs said.

Last week, the Bank of England indicated the possibility of rate cuts as inflation eases, with one policymaker casting the first vote to reduce borrowing costs since 2020.

These revised labor estimates incorporate the latest ONS population figures to re-weight the Labor Force Survey (LFS). This includes a higher representation of young people and women.

The ONS cautioned against overanalyzing short-term changes in the data due to the re-weighting process, recommending that the LFS data be reviewed alongside other indicators.

Data for previous periods showed more minor discrepancies or no change between the unemployment rate in the re-weighted LFS survey and experimental data. However, the re-weighted estimates consistently indicated lower employment and higher inactivity rates.

Source:Malaysiasun

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