The USD/CAD pair ends its four-day losing streak, trading around 1.4350 during Monday's European session. The daily chart's technical analysis suggests uncertainty among buyers and sellers regarding the asset's long-term direction as the pair consolidates within a rectangular pattern.

However, the USD/CAD pair remains below the nine- and 14-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs), underscoring bearish sentiment and indicating weak short-term price action. This positioning reflects ongoing selling interest and suggests further downside risks.

Additionally, the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) remains below the 50 mark, indicating continued negative momentum and reinforcing the bearish outlook.

On the downside, immediate support appears at the psychological level of 1.4300, followed by the rectangle's lower threshold at 1.4280. A break below this support zone could strengthen the bearish bias and exert downward pressure on the USD/CAD pair, potentially pushing it toward the psychological level of 1.4200.

The USD/CAD pair encounters initial resistance at the nine-day EMA of 1.4362, followed by the 14-day EMA at 1.4373. A break above these levels could enhance short-term price momentum and support the pair in testing the rectangle's upper threshold at 1.4520.

USD/CAD: Daily Chart

Source: FXSTREET

Source:AA

The U.S. House of Representatives speaker said on Sunday he would stick with a "one big bill" strategy to pass President Donald Trump's tax-cut agenda and fund border and military priorities, despite a limited $340 billion budget plan unveiled on Friday by Senate Republicans.

Mike Johnson told Fox News Sunday that it will take some time to secure a Republican consensus because of the party's thin House majority. But they would find savings to offset the cost of extending 2017 tax cuts that are due to expire at the end of the year and other priorities such as eliminating taxes on tips.

Senate Budget Committee Chairman Lindsey Graham unveiled a plan on Friday that would boost funding by $85.5 billion for four years for border security, deportations of migrants and for the military, leaving the extension of tax cuts to another bill later this year.

"Well, I talk with the president and his team about this almost constantly, reminding them that we will get the job done, but it has to be the one big bill strategy," Johnson said.

Johnson said the House Budget Committee had previously planned to consider the Republican budget resolution next week, but "we might push it a little bit further because the details really matter."

He said he needs to secure agreement among all House Republicans, who hold a razor-thin 218-215 majority in the chamber. The party plans to use a budget procedure that would allow them to pass fiscal legislation with only a simple Senate majority without any Democratic votes, so he cannot afford to lose more than one Republican vote.

Budget forecasters estimate that extending current individual tax rates would cost more than $4 trillion over a decade, with some estimates topping $11 trillion for Trump's full tax agenda.

Johnson said House Republicans are looking for offsetting savings and do not want to add to federal deficits.

"We're going to make sure that we find the offsets to do this in a responsible manner," Johnson said.

Source: Theedgemarkets

New Zealand is simplifying its so-called “golden visa” programme, including removing an English language requirement, to attract wealthy immigrants and help spark an economic recovery.

From April 1, the Active Investor Plus visa will be narrowed to just two categories, while the scope of acceptable investments will be expanded, Immigration Minister Erica Stanford said Sunday in Auckland. As well as dropping the language test, other potential barriers to investment such as the amount of time investors must stay in the country will also be adjusted, she said.

After a sharp recession in 2024, the New Zealand government wants to capitalise on falling interest rates to lift economic performance but has acknowledged it lacks the necessary capital. It has started reworking foreign investment regulations, created a single agency to act as a one-stop shop for overseas fund managers and eased rules to allow visitors to work remotely, hoping that might encourage highly skilled people to relocate permanently.

“Capital is highly mobile and in an increasing complex world, people are looking for a safe and stable country to do business,” Stanford said. “We are now making our investor visa simpler and more flexible to incentivise investors to choose New Zealand as a destination.”

The Active Investor Plus visa was successful at luring rich individuals to New Zealand and raked in an average NZ$1 billion (US$570 million or RM2.53 billion) a year, but has languished after rule changes in late 2022.

Just 43 applications have been fully approved since those adjustments were made, equating to NZ$545 million of nominated investment funds, according to data from Immigration New Zealand. The actual amount of money coming across the border was significantly less, the government said today.

The new programme will have two categories:

Growth, or higher risk, requiring a minimum investment of NZ$5 million over three years either directly into businesses or into managed funds; visa holders must spend just 21 days in the country
 

Balanced, or mixed risk, requiring a minimum of NZ$10 million invested over five years into bonds, stocks, new property development including residential, or existing commercial and industrial property; holders must spend at least 105 days in the country but can reduce the period by investing above the minimum
 

By offering an option for low-risk investors the programme will be attractive to a wider group of people, rather than just focusing on those with a high risk appetite, Stanford said, adding there is already of a large amount of interest from applicants that had been generated during consultations with the industry.

New Zealand’s easing of its investor visa rules comes at a time when many other nations are ending theirs. Spain will end its golden visa programme on April 3, while the UK, Ireland, the Netherlands, Greece and Malta have either ended or tightened the rules around their golden visa or equivalent policies.

The Australian government has effectively scrapped its Significant Investor visa class — which was available for arrivals who invested more than A$5 million (US$3 million or RM14 million) — over concerns that it had been abused by wealthy individuals who had used it to buy property or financial assets without contributing significantly to productive parts of the economy.

Marcus Beveridge, a business migration specialist and managing director at Queen City Law in Auckland, welcomed the changes as being well over due, and predicted they will give New Zealand’s sluggish residential property market a shot in the arm.

“Over the last couple of decades every time we do something like this the property market picks up,” he said. “It’s not so much about huge numbers coming across the border but what happens is that the cash investment primes the pumps and our local market takes off.”

Source: Theedgemarkets

Trump is back with another tariff push. This time, he has threatened 25% tariffs on steel and aluminum imports from all countries, broadening his trade salvo after the threatened 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico last week before backing down, and the 10% China tariffs that stuck. Now, with the possibility of new import restrictions and threats of retaliation, investors are bracing for fresh volatility.

Markets will react, as they always do – likely selling off on fear, then reversing as they digest the policy. But for long-term investors, the bigger question isn’t the immediate market swing. It is how to position for a world where tariffs keep coming.

Why tariffs could be a long-term game

Tariffs aren’t just about taxing imports – they’re a policy tool with multiple purposes.

National Security: Trump’s first push on tariffs has been focused on “punitive tariffs” targeting immigration and drug-smuggling concerns.

Economic leverage and retaliation: There are also “structural, long-term tariffs” aimed at fixing trade imbalances or “reciprocal tariffs” as opposed to a flat-fee tariff where these are used as a threat or bargaining tool. Governments often use tariffs to protect critical industries from unfair foreign competition. This includes countering subsidized foreign firms that undercut U.S. companies, trade discrimination against American businesses, or persistent trade deficits with key partners.

Revenue generation: A lesser-known angle is using tariffs to fund government spending. Some Republicans are floating a 10%-20% tariff on all imports as a way to replace lost tax revenue.

These policies suggest that tariffs are no longer just short-term trade disputes—they’re becoming a permanent fixture in economic policy.

The trend toward protectionism, self-sufficiency, and government-driven industrial policy is here to stay. For investors, that means positioning for a world where protectionism is the norm, not the exception.

Protectionism isn’t a short-term trade anymore. It’s a structural shift that demands a different approach to investing.

How a protectionist world reshapes investing themes

A shift toward protectionism changes the investment landscape. The past decades favored global supply chains, free trade, and cost efficiency, but the future will be shaped by self-sufficiency, redundancy, and domestic investment.

Here are the key themes shaping the next phase of the economy:

1. Domestic Manufacturing and industrial revival

Protectionism is accelerating a rebuilding of domestic production capacity—especially in materials, technology, and infrastructure. Governments are offering incentives for companies to expand U.S.-based manufacturing, strengthening supply chains and reducing reliance on foreign production.

This means a long-term capital investment shift toward:

Factory construction and industrial automation. Companies like Caterpillar (CAT) and Emerson Electric (EMR) play a role in infrastructure, automation, and reshoring efforts. Honeywell (HON) is another major player benefiting from advanced manufacturing trends.

U.S.-based semiconductor and advanced manufacturing hubs. The push to secure domestic chip production is a megatrend, with Nvidia (NVDA), AMD (AMD), and Broadcom (AVGO) at the center of the industry. Applied Materials (AMAT) and Lam Research (LRCX) provide critical semiconductor equipment.

Stronger domestic steel, aluminum, and raw materials supply chains. U.S. steel and aluminum producers like Nucor (NUE), Steel Dynamics (STLD), and Alcoa (AA) could remain key as government policies favor local production.

2. Energy and resource independence

Protectionism isn’t just about factories—it’s also about securing access to critical resources like oil, natural gas, rare earth minerals, and agricultural production. Governments are pushing for domestic energy security to reduce reliance on foreign suppliers.

Investment in this theme includes:

Fossil fuels and renewables to ensure stable domestic energy supply. ExxonMobil (XOM) and Chevron (CVX) continue to play a major role in U.S. energy security. On the renewable side, NextEra Energy (NEE) and First Solar (FSLR) are expanding U.S. clean energy infrastructure.

Critical minerals and battery production for electric vehicles and defense applications. The U.S. is looking to increase its domestic supply of lithium and other rare earth elements. Albemarle (ALB) and Lithium Americas (LAC) are key players in lithium production, while MP Materials (MP) focuses on rare earth mining.

Food security as agricultural policy shifts toward greater self-sufficiency. Major agribusiness firms like Archer Daniels Midland (ADM) and Bunge (BG) continue to play a central role in securing U.S. food production.

3. Defense and cybersecurity expansion

With trade wars escalating into broader economic and geopolitical conflicts, national security spending is increasing. The U.S. and other major economies are ramping up investment in defense, cybersecurity, and supply chain protection.

This trend supports growth in:

Military technology and domestic weapons manufacturing. Defense contractors like Lockheed Martin (LMT) and Northrop Grumman (NOC) benefit from increasing defense budgets. Raytheon Technologies (RTX) is another key player in aerospace and defense systems.

AI-driven defense and data security solutions. Palantir (PLTR) specializes in AI-driven defense and intelligence solutions, while Booz Allen Hamilton (BAH) provides consulting and cybersecurity expertise to the U.S. government.

Infrastructure hardening to protect against cyber and supply chain disruptions. Companies like CrowdStrike (CRWD), Fortinet (FTNT), and Palo Alto Networks (PANW) are focused on securing digital infrastructure from cyber threats.

4. Supply chain diversification and reshoring

The old model of offshoring production to the lowest-cost producer is breaking down. Companies are now restructuring supply chains with a focus on nearshoring, friendshoring (prioritizing allied nations over geopolitical rivals) and inventory redundancy (building buffer stock instead of relying on just-in-time efficiency).

Governments are actively incentivizing domestic production and trade with trusted partners, rather than relying on global supply chains. Companies facilitating this shift could include:

Flex (FLEX), which provides contract manufacturing services closer to end markets.

Zebra Technologies (ZBRA), which specializes in logistics and supply chain automation.

UPS (UPS) and FedEx (FDX), which are adapting logistics networks to accommodate shifting supply chains.

5. Inflation, cost pressures and pricing power

Protectionism, tariffs, and supply chain restructuring create higher input costs—fueling inflationary pressures. Businesses with pricing power and strong supply chains are better positioned to navigate rising costs.

Industries that historically manage inflation well include:

Consumer staples and essential goods. Companies like Procter & Gamble (PG), Coca-Cola (KO), and PepsiCo (PEP) have pricing power, as consumers continue buying their prTrump tariffs 2.0: Investing themes for a more protectionist world regardless of economic conditions.

Retailers with scale and efficiency. Costco (COST), Walmart (WMT), and Home Depot (HD) have strong supply chain control and the ability to pass on costs to consumers. 

Final Thoughts: Protectionism as the New Normal

The move toward a more protectionist economy isn’t temporary—it’s a structural shift. Governments are prioritizing economic security, supply chain resilience, and national interests over efficiency.

The past decades rewarded companies that optimized for cost efficiency in a globalized world. The next era will reward those that optimize for resilience, domestic production, and geopolitical stability.

Protectionism is no longer just a short-term trade strategy—it’s a defining force in how economies and markets will evolve in the years ahead.

Source: FXSTREET

Malaysia’s jobless rate fell to its lowest in nearly a decade at the end of 2024 as the number of people employed outpaced the expansion in the labour force, official data on Monday showed.

Unemployment rate in December was down to 3.1%, the lowest since May 2015, according to a statement from the Department of Statistics Malaysia. Economists generally consider a 3% unemployment rate as the economy having full employment.

During the month, 544,300 individuals were unemployed versus 546,700 people in November.

“The anticipation for Malaysia's labour force in 2025 is comparatively favourable, whereby employment was observed to rise consistently, while unemployment is expected to remain low,” said chief statistician Datuk Seri Dr Mohd Uzir Mahidin.

Key sectors such as manufacturing particularly electrical and electronics, and services will propel job creation, he said.

The labour force in December expanded 0.1% to 17.32 million persons, with labour force participation rate inching up 0.1 percentage point to 70.6%.

The employee category, comprising the large majority of the workforce, saw a 0.1% increase to 12.56 million persons. Own-account workers — people who operate their own farm or business, or engage in full-time trade without hiring paid employees — also gained 0.4% to 3.12 million persons.

By sectors, employment in the services sector continued to increase, mainly in wholesale and retail trade; art, entertainment and recreation; and accommodation and food-and-beverage services. The manufacturing, construction and agriculture sectors also reported employment growth.

However, employment in the mining and quarrying sector decreased during the month.

In terms of age groups, unemployment for people between 15 and 24 years old — those just entering the labour market following education — inched 0.1 percentage point lower to 10.3% or slightly under 300,000 youths.

Source: Theedgemarkets