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On Thursday, the Bank of England (BOE) left its benchmark interest rate unchanged at 5.00%, in line with market expectations. The Monetary Policy Committee voted 8-1 in favor of the decision, a result that contrasts with Wednesday's 0.5 percentage point rate cut in the United States.
The EUR/JPY cross ticks lower after the Bank of Japan (BoJ) announced its policy decision this Friday and moves away from over a two-week high, around the 160.00 psychological mark touched the previous day. Spot prices drop closer to mid-158.00s in the last hour, though remain confined in the previous day's broader range.
As was widely anticipated, the Japanese central bank maintained the short-term interest rate target in the range of 0.15%-0.25% at the end of a two-day monetary policy review meeting. In the accompanying policy statement, the BoJ noted that Japan's economy will achieve growth above potential and that inflation is likely to be at a level generally consistent with the price target. This, however, fails to provide any meaningful impetus to the Japanese Yen (JPY), though hawkish BoJ expectations continue to act as a headwind for the EUR/JPY cross.
In fact, the recent comments by a slew of BoJ officials suggested that the Japanese central bank will hike interest rates again by the end of this year. The bets were reaffirmed by the latest consumer inflation figures released earlier this Friday, which showed that Japan's headline CPI rose from 2.8% in the prior month to the 3% YoY rate in August, hitting a 10-month high. Adding to this, the Core CPI, which excludes volatile fresh food prices, edged higher to 2.8%, or a 10-month high amid a sustained pick-up in consumption on the back of higher wages.
In contrast, the European Central Bank (ECB) last week indicated a declining path for borrowing costs in the months ahead after cutting interest rates for the second time this cycle. However, reports that the ECB policymakers see an interest rate cut in October as unlikely, barring a major deterioration in the outlook for growth, along with a bearish US Dollar (USD), lends some support to the shared currency. This, in turn, should limit losses for the EUR/JPY cross, which remains on track to register weekly gains for the first time in the previous three.
The BoE delivered a hawkish twist to its guidance emphasising their gradual approach to reducing the restrictiveness of monetary policy. We think this supports our base case of the next cut in November and a pause in December.
Gilt yields tracked higher and EUR/GBP moved lower on the hawkish vote split and communication.
As expected, the Bank of England (BoE) decided to keep the Bank Rate unchanged at 5.00%. The vote split was 8-1 with the majority of members voting for an unchanged decision and dove Dhingra voting for a 25bp cut.
The BoE retained much of its previous guidance noting that “monetary policy will need to continue to remain restrictive for sufficiently long until the risks to inflation returning sustainably to the 2% target in the medium term have dissipated further” but added that “In the absence of material developments, a gradual approach to removing policy restraint remains appropriate“. Combined with the vote split, this delivered a slight hawkish twist pushing back on market expectations of a cut at every meeting. While data on balance has been slightly better than expected compared to the August MPR, the BoE noted upside risks to pay growth. Likewise, the BoE noted that “Bank staff expected services inflation to ease slightly further in Q4“, which at 5.6% y/y in August remains uncomfortably elevated.
We think the communication the further supports our call of a more gradual approach to a cutting cycle. We expect the next 25bp cut in November with the Bank Rate ending the year at 4.75%.
On QT, the MPC announced another GBP 100bn of quantitative tightening for the coming year starting October. Given the maturity profile, the largest part will stem from maturities (GBP 87bn) and to a much lesser extent from sales (GBP 13bn).
Rates. 2Y Gilt yields moved higher on the statement but overall, the reaction in rates markets was muted. Markets price 28bp for November and 14bp in December. We see it as more likely that the BoE will pause in December.
FX. EUR/GBP moved lower on the announcement following the slightly hawkish vote split and notion of a gradual cutting cycle. The guidance delivered highlights the more cautious approach of the BoE, which supports our case of a continued move lower in EUR/GBP. This is further amplified by UK economic outperformance and tight credit spreads. The key risk is policy action from the BoE. We stay long GBP/CHF.
Our call. We expect the BoE to deliver the next 25bp cut in November and this to be the final cut this year, making it less than markets expect (42bp by YE 2024). In 2025, we expect cuts at every meeting starting in February and until H2 2025 where we expect a step Bank of England Review – Gradual easing cycle supports GBP Bank of England Review – Gradual easing cycle supports GBP down to a quarterly pace. This leaves the Bank Rate at 3.25% by YE 2025.
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