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median consumer inflation perceptions over the previous 12 months declined noticeably, while median inflation expectations for the next 12 months remained unchanged and those for three years ahead edged up.
JACKSON HOLE, Wyoming (Aug 26): Growing signs of lackluster growth and risks emerging to the job market overshadowed a gathering of global policymakers at the U.S. Federal Reserve's annual Jackson Hole conference, highlighting the changing trajectory of monetary policy as U.S. and European central banks eye cutting interest rates.
Even as the focus of U.S. and European central bankers shifts from high inflation to softening job markets, the Bank of Japan reaffirmed its resolve to wean its economy off decades of monetary support amid growing signs of sustained price growth.
The divergence in policy direction point to turbulent times for the global economy and financial markets.
The policymakers who met at the annual economic symposium already had a taste of what may come when weak U.S. jobs data earlier this month stoked recession fears and triggered a market rout aggravated by the BOJ's surprise rate hike in July.
So far, many analysts agree with the International Monetary Fund's projection that the global economy will achieve modest growth in coming years.
But such rosy projections rest on shaky ground with doubts emerging over prospects for a U.S. soft landing, euro-zone growth failing to revive.
While major central banks are veering towards rate cuts, it remains too soon to say whether the moves could be categorized as a "normalization" of restrictive policy or first steps to prevent growth from faltering further.
The uncertainty could leave global stocks and currencies susceptible to volatile swings.
"We could see other episodes of market volatility as markets are in a little bit of an uncharted territory," as major central banks enter a monetary easing cycle after tightening policy to deal with a burst of inflation, said IMF chief economist Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas.
"Japan is on a slightly different cycle. The markets have to figure out what it all means, and markets overreact. So, we will have further volatility," he said.
In his much-anticipated speech Fed Chair Jerome Powell on Friday endorsed an imminent start to interest rate cuts, declaring further job market cooling would be unwelcome.
It was a significant shift from Powell's comments as inflation surged in 2021 and 2022, and cemented the view the Fed was making a pivot from a policy that pushed its benchmark rate to a quarter-century high and held it there for more than a year.
New research presented in Jackson Hole showed the U.S. economy may be near a tipping point where a continued drop in job openings will translate into faster increases in unemployment.
European Central Bank policymakers are converging on a September rate cut, partly on moderating price pressures but also because of a notable weakening of the growth outlook.
The euro zone economy barely grew last quarter as Germany, its biggest economy, contracted, manufacturing remains in a deep recession and exports have faltered, due largely to weak demand from China.
"The recent increase in negative growth risks in the euro area has reinforced the case for a rate cut at the next ECB monetary policy meeting in September," ECB rate-setter Olli Rehn said.
Even in Japan, recent inflation data showed a slowdown in demand-driven price growth that could complicate the BOJ's decisions on more rate hikes.
While consumption rebounded in the second quarter, there is uncertainty on whether wages would rise enough to compensate households for the rising cost of living, analysts say.
"Domestic demand is very weak," said Sayuri Shirai, a former BOJ board member now an academic at Keio University in Tokyo. "From an economic perspective, there's little reason for the BOJ to raise rates."
Adding to the gloom is China.
The world's most populous country is verging on deflation and faces a prolonged property crisis, surging debt and weak consumer and business sentiment.
Weaker-than-expected second-quarter growth forced China's central bank to make surprise interest rate cuts last month, and heightens the chance of a downgrade in the IMF's growth projections for the country.
"China is a large player in global economy. Weaker growth in China has spillovers to the to the rest of the world," said IMF's Gourinchas.
Further signs of slowing of U.S. and Chinese growth would bode ill for manufacturers across the globe already feeling the strain from tepid demand.
Private surveys showed factories struggled in July across the U.S., Europe and Asia, raising the risk of an underpowered global economic recovery.
For resource-rich emerging economies like Brazil, China's slowdown could hit metal and food exports, but help alleviate inflationary pressure through cheaper imports.
Brazilian central bank Governor Roberto Campos Neto, speaking at Jackson Hole's closing session, said: "The net effect...depends on how much the deceleration is."
There is still no recovery in sight. After last week’s disappointing PMI readings, Germany’s most prominent leading indicator, the Ifo index, continued its recent downward trend and dropped for the fourth consecutive month to 86.6 in August, from 87.0 in July.
In light of today’s drop, the previous wave of optimism experienced at the beginning of the year has mostly disappeared. The August decline was driven by a weaker current assessment and falling expectations.
The German economy seems to be back where it was a year ago: the growth laggard of the eurozone with little signs of an imminent improvement. Last week, the July PMI index already showed a weak start to the third quarter and today’s Ifo index proves that there are currently very few reasons for optimism.
The cyclical hope that grabbed the German economy in the first months of the year has disappeared, mainly due to a weaker global economy but also because of fears of a cooling US economy, ongoing geopolitical tensions and domestic policy uncertainty. Additionally, the increasing number of insolvencies and individual company announcements of upcoming job restructurings are still hanging like the Sword of Damocles over what has been one of the few strongholds of the economy in recent years: the labour market.
Still, and as depressing as this new wave of falling sentiment indicators is, don't rule out potential positive surprises in the second half of the year. While the highest increase in real wages in more than a decade could still open German consumers’ wallets, despite increasing job loss fears, it is industrial production that could still come to the rescue. Inventories have been at high levels for an unprecedented long time. It only needs a small improvement in industrial order books to turn the inventory cycle and get industrial production growing again.
The latest batch of sentiment indicators is another illustration of what it means to be in the middle of cyclical headwinds and structural changes. This is not a typical textbook cycle but rather an unprecedented period of de facto stagnation. It doesn't make it any better, but it may be easier to understand.
(Aug 26): Gold’s record-setting rally above US$2,500 (RM10,871.88) an ounce looks to have further to run as the US Federal Reserve (Fed) prepares to chop rates, traditional drivers such as lower yields return, and Western investors pile back in.
“Everybody thought the Fed was going to be the last to cut, but now they are getting in line,” said Jay Hatfield, the chief executive officer of Infrastructure Capital Advisors, who recently went long on gold options for the first time in years. Chair Jerome Powell’s Jackson Hole speech — which promised rate cuts — was a watershed moment for bullion, according to Hatfield.
Bullion has dazzled this year, setting a procession of records that marked out the precious metal as one of the strongest performers among major commodities. Its ascent in the first half came courtesy of strong central-bank buying plus Asian purchases, which offset the drag from a rising US dollar, higher Treasury yields, and outflows from bullion-backed exchange-traded funds (ETFs). Now all three of those drivers may run in gold’s favour.
“That opportunity cost of holding gold is coming down,” said Rajeev De Mello, a global macro portfolio manager at GAMA Asset Management SA. “This very fast decline in real yields, and the weakening of the dollar generally, makes me quite happy to use gold as another currency to be short on the dollar.”
So far in 2024, spot gold has rallied by more than a fifth, with banks including Goldman Sachs Group Inc saying as far back as April that prices had the scope to hit US$2,700 an ounce. After Powell’s roadmap at the Jackson Hole symposium last Friday, US 10-year real yields have now retreated to the lowest since December last year. That benefits gold as it doesn’t pay interest.
Among investors, interest has become more widespread. Hedge funds and speculators have been adding bullish wagers on Comex — with net-long bullion positions hitting the highest in more than four years, according to Commodity Futures Trading Commission data.
There are also signs of a revival in demand for gold-backed ETFs. Holdings in SPDR Gold Shares, one of the leading products, have expanded for the eight straight weeks, the longest run of inflows since mid-2020.
To be sure, even with Western investors warming to the precious metal, prices may be vulnerable to softening consumption in Asia, where lofty prices have hurt demand. China’s central bank also recently paused its substantial monthly purchases, weakening two of the pillars that helped lift gold in the first half.
For now, Citigroup Inc sees inflows into ETFs expanding “significantly” over six to 12 months, with demand bolstered by looser monetary policy, as well as a potential increase in volatility amid recessionary risks. Gold may reach US$3,000 by mid-2025, the bank said in a note before Powell’s address.
The market can expect large ETF flows, as well as ongoing speculator demand, when the Fed actually makes its first rate cut, according to UBS Group AG, which sees prices at US$2,600 for the last quarter of 2024. Increasing geopolitical risks should also lift demand for portfolio hedges, said Wayne Gordon, a commodities strategist at UBS Global Wealth Management.
“It’s really notable that people are actually starting to move to that physical gold ETF side now,” said Ryan McIntyre, a managing partner of Sprott Inc, a Toronto-based precious metals and critical minerals asset manager with US$31.1 billion in assets under management. “Buying through the ETFs is going to be a big, big part of gold’s story.”
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