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With slightly more than one month to go before the crucial elections, we take a look at Germany's most pressing structural problems.

Markets will be focused on today’s inauguration of President Trump with close attention on the large amount of executive orders he is reportedly planning to sign .

Markets may tread carefully today ahead of Monday’s inauguration of President Trump. There are lingering concerns about the “day one” measures, some of which are priced in, which could generate some volatility early next week. For now, the dollar may stay in a holding pattern, retaining its overvaluation against some tariff-sensitive currencies.

Yet another upside surprise on US jobs numbers will intensify the belief that Federal Reserve officials are under no pressure to cut interest rates in the near term. We will get the benchmark jobs revisions next month, which could change the story, but in an environment of sticky inflation the risks are increasingly skewed towards an extended pause from the Fed.

The consensus is for US non-farm payrolls to have risen 153k in December while the unemployment rate is expected to hold at 4.2%. This would be consistent with a general cooling of the jobs market. Data from Hungary and the Czech Republic, meanwhile, may show unemployment ticking up.

At the December Monetary Policy Committee meeting, the CBT cut its policy rate by 250bp to 47.5%, which was more than the consensus forecast of a 150bp reduction, but in line with our expectation and narrowed the interest rate corridor from 600bp to 300bp.

At the December Monetary Policy Committee meeting, the CBT cut its policy rate by 250bp to 47.5%, which was more than the consensus forecast of a 150bp reduction, but in line with our expectation and narrowed the interest rate corridor from 600bp to 300bp.

Czech consumer and business confidence both weakened in December. Consumers are now less optimistic about the economic outlook and the business mood was further dragged down by industry. Meanwhile, the service sector saw further improvements.

Manufacturing and construction confidence was confirmed as weak but improved in services. Softer consumer confidence is a stark reminder that the consumption drive we anticipate for 2025 is not immune to downside risks.