Reciprocal Tariffs Are on, but VAT Is the Bigger Elephant in the Room

Economic

Summary:

Three weeks into office, President Trump advanced his 'America First' trade agenda by investigating reciprocal tariffs and scrutinising the VAT system, viewing it as a tariff. While countries could lower tariffs to US levels to avoid new tariffs, abolishing the VAT system is unlikely.

The next stage in trade escalation: reciprocal tariffs and targeting VAT

While new tariff announcements were eagerly awaited, Trump instead directed key government officials to investigate the complex task of applying reciprocal tariffs, where a country matches the tariffs imposed by another country. The responsible ministers have until 1 April to submit their reports, and within 180 days, a report must be delivered on the fiscal impacts of potential trade policy changes.

Given the time required for these investigations and implementations, the process is likely to start with trading partners with the highest trade deficits and higher tariffs than the US: China, the EU (with Germany and Ireland leading), Vietnam, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, and India.

In theory, to avoid tariffs, these countries could lower or abolish their tariffs or manufacture their goods in the US. Yet, there is a difficulty in lowering tariffs for one country only, as this would trigger the Most Favoured Nation (MFN) principle, which requires a country to extend the same favourable trade terms to all its trading partners that it grants to any one of them, i.e., granting the lowest tariff to any other nation with MFN status. Likewise implementing reciprocal tariffs would also conflict with the MFN clause, because it involves treating different countries differently based on their specific trade policies, undermining one of the key pillars of the World Trade Organisation (WTO).

But there is an even more significant caveat in this announcement: the investigation into the value-added tax (VAT) system, a tax on final consumption, which the US administration views as similar to a tariff. Countries could, in principle, lower their tariffs to US levels. However, abolishing the VAT system is extremely unlikely. In the EU, VAT revenues account for 7.5% of GDP and 18.6% of total tax revenues (as of 2022). The EU-27 average standard VAT rate was 21.5% in 2023, with Luxembourg at 16% and Hungary at 27%. Globally, 175 countries have a VAT system, with the US being one of the few exceptions, using a sales tax system by state varying from 0% to 11.5%, instead. Since VAT is typically applied as a destination-based tax, meaning it is charged based on where the goods or services are consumed rather than where they are produced, it aligns with WTO principles.

Avoiding tariffs, therefore, seems to be an impossible task, especially since the memo is not limited to tariffs, nor VAT, but extends the investigation into non-tariff barriers such as digital trade barriers, exchange rates, and other unfair market access limitations.

Who will get a deal and who will not? India and Japan lined up for a deal, while the EU and China might not get as lucky

Nevertheless, the window for deals is still open. And so far, Trump’s tariffs have been used to bring countries to the table for Trump’s domestic agenda. Remember that no new tariffs have entered into force except for additional 10% tariffs on Chinese goods. Steel and aluminium tariffs will only enter into force on 12 March, while tariffs on Mexican and Canadian goods have been delayed until 4 March and might never see the light of day given the interconnectedness between those three economies.

Since President Trump sees himself as a dealmaker, we still expect the US administration to use targeted tariffs to gain concessions, at least for the time being. India, Japan, and Australia have already positioned themselves for potential trade deals.

During a summit between the US and Japan in the first week of February, Japanese Prime Minister Ishiba announced plans to raise investment in the US by some $200 billion and to buy more LNG from the US. India’s Prime Minister Modi already slashed tariffs on an array of goods, such as heavyweight motorcycles from 50% to 30% and smaller bikes from 50% to 40%, and scrapped tariffs on satellite ground installations altogether. Also, the Indian government promised to take back undocumented Indian immigrants and pledged to buy more US oil.

US tariff plans highly likely to spark legal and retaliatory backlash

But others might not get as lucky. We see Europe and China in the spotlight here, which have long been a thorn in Trump's side. While the European Union still prefers negotiations, it has positioned itself strongly by announcing plans to fight back against unfair trade practices. In fact, the US also applies higher tariffs to certain product categories, such as clothing (12% in the EU and up to 32% in the US) and light vehicle trucks (10% in the EU and 25% in the US). While a White House official said Trump would gladly lower tariffs if other nations lowered theirs, it highlights the complexity and the challenges in achieving mutually beneficial agreements.

And, if history is anything to go by, EU policymakers will not be the only ones opting for retaliation in the event of failed negotiations. Similarly, China has taken a firm stance, implementing retaliatory measures to protect its interests against the 10% tariff hike from the US, although its combination of measures shows China is taking care not to flip the proverbial table but also to show it has cards to hit back at real US economic interests if talks sour.

From “The Art of the Deal” to “America First”- unilateral tariffs might still be on after April

The 1 April and 30 April deadlines will now be watched even more closely. Even before his reciprocal tariff memo, President Trump had ordered a comprehensive investigation into America’s trade policy, looking into unfair and unbalanced trade, the trade policy with China, and additional economic security measures as well as foreign subsidies on US federal procurement.

As mentioned earlier, no new tariffs have entered into force except for additional 10% tariffs on Chinese goods, leaving room for negotiation. But while initial deals might be made, the goal of increasing tariff revenues for domestic tax cuts could lead to unilateral tariffs. And the complexity of the customs project will make it easy for the US to take targeted country-by-country measures as of April. This means a bumpy ride ahead. President Trump has set the stage for further trade escalations, and with retaliation likely, things could get nasty pretty soon.

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Justin

Economic

The US Dollar (USD) is a little weaker in Europe today on the back of slightly lower US interest rates, ongoing optimism about an end to the war in Ukraine, and a US reciprocal tariff package which was hard to decipher. The market knew that the Commerce Department was due to deliver a big report on trade in April and had expected tariffs thereafter. But it had also feared that this week's reciprocal tariffs announcement would be a separate workstream and be more immediate. News yesterday effectively laying the groundwork for the April report has therefore been seen as a relief, ING’s FX analysts Chris Turner notes.

Short-term momentum can carry DXY to the 106.35 area

"Reading through the details of the basis on which reciprocal tariffs will be delivered is mind-blowing. Each country's reciprocal tariff will be based on a relative analysis of: import tariffs, VAT rates, subsidies, regulatory burdens, FX misalignment, and 'any other practice that.. imposes any unfair limitation on market access or any structural impediment to fair competition with the market economy of the United States'."

"However, the outcome is likely to be perhaps some eye-wateringly large tariffs against some of the key countries with which the US runs a goods deficit. The EU will certainly be in the cross-hairs since it looks like Trump is using the threat of tariffs as leverage against the EU's digital service tax. We think the dollar will move a little stronger into the second quarter. This means the current dollar dip should be a correction rather than a meaningful new trend."

"For today, we think the dollar can stay soft as the focus switches to the security conference in Munich and what it means for any ceasefire in Ukraine. Speculation is building that representatives from the US, Russia, Ukraine and perhaps Europe, too, could meet in Saudi Arabia at some stage. A soft, weather-related January US retail sales figure today does not need to hit the dollar too hard. But we think short-term momentum could carry DXY below 106.95/107.00 to the 106.35 area."

Source: FXSTREET

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Owen Li

Stocks

Sharekhan's research report on Zydus Wellness

Zydus Wellness Limited’s (ZWL’s) Q3FY25 numbers were mixed with revenue growing by 15% y-o-y to Rs. 462 crore (versus Rs. 435 crore expected), while OPM stood flat y-o-y at 3.1% (against expectation of 5.8%). PAT came in at Rs. 6.4 crore. Management has guided for double-digit revenue growth and EBITDA growth to be in line with or higher than revenue growth in FY26. The company aims to achieve 17-18% OPM in the coming years through a mix of gross margin expansion and operating leverage.

Outlook

The stock has corrected by 19% since its recent high and trades at 31x/23x/19x its FY25E/FY26E/FY27E EPS, respectively. We maintain a Buy with a revised PT of Rs. 2,121.

For all recommendations report, click here

Disclaimer: The views and investment tips expressed by investment experts/broking houses/rating agencies on moneycontrol.com are their own, and not that of the website or its management. Moneycontrol.com advises users to check with certified experts before taking any investment decisions.

Source:Moneycontrot

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Glendon

Economic

In the world of finance and accounting, understanding profit metrics is essential for evaluating a company's financial health. Among the many terms that analysts and investors encounter, EBIT (Earnings Before Interest and Taxes) and EBITDA (Earnings Before Interest, Taxes, Depreciation, and Amortization) are two of the most commonly used. While both of these metrics provide insights into a company’s profitability, they do so from different perspectives. In this article, we will break down the key differences between EBIT and EBITDA, explore their calculations, and discuss how each metric is used to assess financial performance.

What is EBIT?

EBIT stands for Earnings Before Interest and Taxes, and it is a measure of a company’s profitability from its core operations, excluding the effects of interest expenses and income taxes. EBIT gives an idea of how well a company generates profit from its operations without the influence of its capital structure (debt) and tax environment.

How to Calculate EBIT

The basic formula for calculating EBIT is:

EBIT=Revenue−Operating Expenses (excluding interest and tax)

In simpler terms, EBIT focuses purely on the operational efficiency of a business by subtracting its direct operating costs (such as cost of goods sold, operating expenses, and overhead) from its revenue.

Why EBIT Matters

EBIT is crucial because it provides a clearer view of a company’s operating performance. Since it excludes interest and taxes, it allows for comparisons between companies in different industries, capital structures, or tax jurisdictions. For example, two companies with different financing methods (one with significant debt, the other with less) can be compared using EBIT without the distortion caused by differing interest expenses.

EBIT is often used by investors and analysts to assess the effectiveness of a company’s core business activities, and it’s frequently featured in financial reports, especially in sectors where depreciation and taxes vary significantly.

What is EBITDA?

EBITDA stands for Earnings Before Interest, Taxes, Depreciation, and Amortization. This metric goes a step further than EBIT by excluding not only interest expenses and taxes but also depreciation and amortization. These exclusions make EBITDA a more "pure" measure of operational profitability by ignoring non-cash charges and the impacts of capital investments.

How to Calculate EBITDA

The formula for calculating EBITDA is:

EBITDA=EBIT+Depreciation+Amortization

Alternatively, you can calculate EBITDA directly from revenue by adding back depreciation and amortization to the operating income (EBIT).

Why EBITDA Matters

EBITDA is particularly useful for investors, especially when evaluating companies that have significant capital investments. Depreciation and amortization can vary greatly between businesses, depending on their asset bases and how they account for capital expenses. By excluding these non-cash costs, EBITDA gives a clearer picture of the company’s ability to generate cash from operations.

Because it removes the impact of capital structure (interest), tax policies, and non-cash accounting charges (depreciation and amortization), EBITDA is often used in valuations, especially when comparing companies across industries with varying asset compositions or capital structures.

EBIT vs. EBITDA: Key Differences

While EBIT and EBITDA share similarities, they differ in what they exclude:

EBIT excludes interest and taxes, focusing on operating performance.

EBITDA goes further by also excluding depreciation and amortization, offering a cleaner view of cash generation from core operations.

Which One Should You Use?

Both metrics have their strengths and are used in different contexts:

Use EBIT when you want to assess a company’s operational profitability, particularly when comparing companies with similar capital structures.

Use EBITDA when you want to evaluate cash generation without the effects of capital expenditures or depreciation and amortization.

In industries where companies rely heavily on physical assets and incur significant depreciation (like manufacturing or transportation), EBITDA might be a more useful metric. However, for industries where the focus is on profitability from core operations, EBIT might give you a better understanding of financial health.

Why Both Matter

Both EBIT and EBITDA are important in financial analysis because they provide different insights. EBIT is useful for understanding how a company performs in its day-to-day operations, excluding external financial factors. EBITDA, on the other hand, focuses on the cash-generating ability of a business, excluding non-cash accounting elements like depreciation.

As investors or analysts, you’ll often find that you need to look at both of these metrics together to get a comprehensive picture of a company's financial performance. They provide two sides of the same coin—one focused on profitability from operations (EBIT) and the other on cash flow potential (EBITDA).

Conclusion

EBIT and EBITDA are both critical financial metrics that offer different perspectives on a company’s profitability. While EBIT looks at operating profit without the influence of interest and taxes, EBITDA further excludes depreciation and amortization to provide a clearer picture of cash flow from core operations. Understanding both metrics allows investors, analysts, and business owners to make more informed decisions about financial health, operational efficiency, and future growth potential.

If you're analyzing companies across different industries, it's crucial to understand the nuances of each metric and use them appropriately based on the type of comparison you're making. Whether you’re evaluating operational efficiency, cash flow potential, or overall profitability, EBIT and EBITDA are indispensable tools in the financial toolkit.

To stay updated on all economic events of today, please check out our Economic calendar

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Alex

Stocks

Motilal Oswal's research report on Power Finance Corporation

Power Finance Corporation (PFC)’s 3QFY25 PAT grew ~23% YoY to INR41.5b (in line). NII grew ~13% YoY to ~INR46.9b (in line). Other income grew ~2% YoY to~INR6b, which included dividend income of INR5.9b (PY: INR5b). Opex rose ~67% YoY to ~INR1.8b (~28% higher than MOFSLe), mainly driven by CSR expense of ~INR650m. The cost-income ratio stood at ~3.9% (PQ: 5.3% and PY: ~2.6%). Reported yields and CoB declined ~4bp and ~3bp QoQ to ~10.07% and ~7.47%, respectively, resulting in flat spreads QoQ at ~2.6%. Reported NIMs rose ~8bp QoQ to ~3.65%. GS3 improved ~3bp QoQ to ~2.68% and NS3 was largely stable QoQ at ~0.7%. PCR on Stage 3 remained healthy at ~73%. Provisions stood at INR745m, which translated into annualized credit costs of 1bp (PY: 6bp and PQ: -3bp).

Outlook

We reiterate our BUY rating with an SoTP (Sep’26E)-based TP of INR475 (based on 1x target multiple for the PFC standalone business and INR184/ share for PFC’s stake in REC after a hold-co discount of 20%).

For all recommendations report, click here

Source:Moneycontrot

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Glendon

Economic

When evaluating the economic health and wealth of a nation, Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and Gross National Product (GNP) are two of the most important metrics used. However, while these terms might seem interchangeable at first glance, they actually measure different aspects of a country’s economy. Understanding the distinctions between GDP and GNP is crucial for understanding how a country’s economic performance is assessed. This article delves into the key differences between GDP and GNP, explaining how each is calculated, what they measure, and which one truly reflects a country’s wealth.

What is GDP?

Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is the total monetary value of all goods and services produced within a country’s borders over a specific time period, typically a year or a quarter. It is one of the most commonly used indicators of a country’s economic performance. GDP takes into account only the economic activity that occurs within the physical boundaries of a country, regardless of whether the producers are domestic or foreign.

How is GDP Calculated?

GDP can be calculated using three main approaches:

Production Approach: This calculates the total value added at each stage of production in the economy.

Expenditure Approach: This measures the total spending on final goods and services in the economy. The formula is:

GDP=C+I+G+(X−M)GDP = C + I + G + (X - M)GDP=C+I+G+(X−M)

Where:

C= Consumption

I= Investment

G= Government spending

X= Exports

M= Imports

Income Approach: This sums up all the incomes earned by households and businesses in the economy, such as wages, profits, and rents.

Why GDP Matters

GDP is essential because it provides a snapshot of a country’s economic activity within its borders. Governments, economists, and businesses use GDP to gauge the economic health of a nation, determine whether the economy is expanding or contracting, and formulate policy decisions. It’s also commonly used in international comparisons to assess and rank the economic performance of different countries.

What is GNP?

Gross National Product (GNP), on the other hand, is the total monetary value of all goods and services produced by the residents of a country, both within its borders and abroad, over a specific time period. GNP accounts for the income earned by a country's citizens and businesses, regardless of whether that income is generated domestically or internationally.

How is GNP Calculated?

GNP can be calculated by adjusting GDP for the income received from abroad and the income sent out of the country by foreign nationals and businesses:

GNP=GDP+Net income from abroadGNP = GDP + \text{Net income from abroad}GNP=GDP+Net income from abroad

The net income from abroad includes:

Income earned by domestic residents from foreign investments (such as profits from overseas businesses)Income earned by foreign residents within the country, which is subtracted from the GNP calculation

Why GNP Matters

GNP provides a broader view of the economic health of a country, as it considers the economic contributions made by a country’s citizens and businesses outside its borders. This makes GNP particularly useful for understanding the economic strength of nations with significant overseas investments, such as multinational corporations or citizens working abroad.

Key Differences Between GDP and GNP

The primary difference between GDP and GNP lies in what each metric measures:

GDP measures

the total economic output within a country’s borders, regardless of who produces it.

GNP measures

the total economic output generated by the residents of a country, including income earned abroad and excluding income earned by foreigners within the country.

Which One Better Measures a Country’s Wealth?

The answer depends on the context and the perspective you’re interested in:

GDP is more commonly used when assessing a country’s economic activity, especially in terms of measuring domestic output and growth. It provides a clear picture of the economic activity that occurs within the physical borders of a country, which is particularly relevant for policymakers and businesses focused on the domestic economy.

GNP is a better indicator for understanding the wealth generated by a country’s residents, especially in cases where a significant portion of a country’s income comes from abroad. For countries with large multinational corporations or significant overseas investments, GNP provides a clearer picture of the economic well-being of its citizens and businesses.

GDP vs. GNP in Practice

Let’s consider two examples to illustrate how GDP and GNP can provide different insights into a country’s economic performance:

Country A is home to a number of large multinational corporations that have significant investments and operations abroad. In this case, the country’s GNP may be higher than its GDP because the income generated by its citizens and businesses overseas contributes to its national income.

Country B has little to no overseas investment and relies heavily on foreign workers. In this case, the country’s GDP may be higher than its GNP, as income generated by foreign workers within the country would be included in the GDP but excluded from the GNP.

Which Metric is Better for Economic Decision-Making?

While both GDP and GNP are important, GDP is generally favored for short-term economic analysis, as it gives a more immediate picture of the country’s economic health. It helps policymakers and businesses assess how well the domestic economy is performing.

However, GNP offers a better long-term perspective, especially for countries with a large number of citizens or businesses operating internationally. It highlights the economic wealth generated by a country’s residents, regardless of where they are located.

Conclusion

Both GDP and GNP are essential for understanding the wealth and economic performance of a country, but each offers a different perspective. GDP is focused on the economic activity occurring within a country’s borders, while GNP emphasizes the total income generated by a country’s residents, including their overseas activities.

For most domestic economic assessments, GDP is typically the go-to metric. However, GNP becomes particularly important when assessing the broader wealth of a nation, especially for countries with significant global business or expatriate populations.

In the end, the wealth of a nation cannot be understood through a single metric. Both GDP and GNP play vital roles in giving a fuller picture of a country’s economic strength and its place in the global economy.

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Glendon

Economic

In the global economy, financial cities are the beating hearts of wealth creation, innovation, and economic power. These urban hubs attract high-net-worth individuals (HNWIs), multinational corporations, and investors, shaping the trajectory of global markets. From Wall Street’s towering skyscrapers to Singapore’s bustling financial district, these cities are more than just economic centers—they are symbols of ambition, luxury, and opportunity.

The Titans of Finance: New York and London

New York City reigns supreme as the world’s financial capital. Home to over 349,500 millionaires and 60 billionaires, NYC’s wealth is driven by Wall Street, the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE), and a diverse economy spanning finance, media, and technology. Manhattan’s luxury real estate market, with properties averaging $2.4 million, underscores its status as a global wealth magnet.

London, Europe’s financial powerhouse, follows closely. Despite Brexit challenges, London remains a hub for international finance, with 227,000 millionaires and 35 billionaires. The City of London and Canary Wharf are home to major banks and investment firms, while neighborhoods like Mayfair and Knightsbridge boast some of the world’s most expensive real estate.

Asia’s Rising Stars: Singapore and Hong Kong

Singapore has emerged as a global wealth hub, attracting 244,800 millionaires and 30 billionaires. Known for its pro-business policies, low tax rates, and robust financial services, Singapore is a haven for HNWIs and corporations. Its luxury real estate market, particularly in Marina Bay, reflects its status as a premier financial center.

Hong Kong, despite geopolitical challenges, remains a key player in Asia’s financial landscape. With 129,500 millionaires and a thriving stock exchange, Hong Kong continues to attract investors and businesses. Its strategic location as a gateway to China further solidifies its importance.

Innovation and Technology: San Francisco and Tokyo

The San Francisco Bay Area, encompassing Silicon Valley, is a global leader in technology and innovation. Home to 305,700 millionaires and 68 billionaires, the region thrives on its tech giants like Apple, Google, and Meta. The Bay Area’s real estate market, with median home prices exceeding $1.3 million, reflects its economic dominance.

Tokyo, Asia’s largest metropolitan economy, combines tradition with modernity. With 298,300 millionaires, Tokyo’s wealth is driven by technology, manufacturing, and finance. The Tokyo Stock Exchange and neighborhoods like Minato and Shibuya highlight its economic prowess.

Emerging Contenders: Dubai and Shanghai

Dubai has rapidly ascended as a global financial hub, attracting 6,700 millionaires in 2024 alone. Its tax-friendly policies, political stability, and luxury lifestyle make it a magnet for HNWIs. Dubai’s real estate market, with properties like the Burj Khalifa, symbolizes its opulence and ambition.

Shanghai, China’s financial capital, is a rising star in the global economy. With 165,000 millionaires, Shanghai’s wealth is fueled by its stock exchange, trade, and innovation. The city’s skyline, dominated by the Shanghai Tower, reflects its rapid growth and economic influence.

The Future of Financial Cities

As technology and sustainability reshape the global economy, financial cities are adapting to maintain their dominance. Investments in fintech, green energy, and smart infrastructure are becoming key priorities. Cities like London and Singapore are leading the charge, balancing economic growth with environmental responsibility1013.

Conclusion

The world’s top financial cities are more than just economic hubs—they are centers of innovation, culture, and luxury. From New York’s Wall Street to Singapore’s Marina Bay, these cities attract the world’s wealthiest and most ambitious individuals. As they evolve, they will continue to shape the global economy, driving progress and prosperity for decades to come.

This article highlights the world’s leading financial cities, exploring their economic power, innovation, and luxury lifestyles. The AI image prompt complements the theme, visually capturing the dynamism and global influence of these urban hubs.

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Reciprocal Tariffs Are on, but VAT Is the Bigger Elephant in the Room

The next stage in trade escalation: reciprocal tariffs and targeting VAT

Who will get a deal and who will not? India and Japan lined up for a deal, while the EU and China might not get as lucky

US tariff plans highly likely to spark legal and retaliatory backlash

From “The Art of the Deal” to “America First”- unilateral tariffs might still be on after April

USD: Reciprocal Tariffs Seen as 'unworkable'

Source: FXSTREET

Buy Zydus Wellness

Sharekhan's research report on Zydus Wellness

Outlook

For all recommendations report, click here

Source:Moneycontrot

EBIT vs. EBITDA: Breaking Down the Profit Puzzle

What is EBIT?

How to Calculate EBIT

Why EBIT Matters

What is EBITDA?

How to Calculate EBITDA

Why EBITDA Matters

EBIT vs. EBITDA: Key Differences

Which One Should You Use?

Why Both Matter

Conclusion

Buy Power Finance Corporation; target of Rs 475: Motilal Oswal

Motilal Oswal's research report on Power Finance Corporation

Outlook

For all recommendations report, click here

Source:Moneycontrot

GDP vs. GNP: Which Metric Truly Measures Your Country's Wealth

What is GDP?

How is GDP Calculated?

Why GDP Matters

What is GNP?

How is GNP Calculated?

Why GNP Matters

Key Differences Between GDP and GNP

Which One Better Measures a Country’s Wealth?

GDP vs. GNP in Practice

Which Metric is Better for Economic Decision-Making?

Conclusion

The World's Top Financial Cities: Where Wealth and Power Collide

The Titans of Finance: New York and London

Asia’s Rising Stars: Singapore and Hong Kong

Innovation and Technology: San Francisco and Tokyo

Emerging Contenders: Dubai and Shanghai

The Future of Financial Cities

Conclusion

Risk Disclosure