Previously in Q3

Fed rate cuts, recession risks in Q4

US federal election

Geopolitical risk

Gold’s technical outlook

Source:XM

Gazprom CEO Alexei Miller has issued a stark warning about the future of the European gas market. Speaking at the St. Petersburg International Gas Forum, Miller highlighted the rising volatility in gas prices and the possibility of new price shocks and supply disruptions. He attributed these risks to Europe's ongoing "deindustrialization," a result of high energy prices that make European industries less competitive compared to global counterparts.

According to Miller, gas demand in the EU and the UK dropped by 11 billion cubic meters in the first nine months of 2024. Key sectors like steel, cement, and chemicals have been hit hard, with some industries seeing a 10% production decline over the past year and a half. The situation has forced many industrial enterprises to shut down or relocate production, particularly in Germany.

Miller also noted that energy costs in Europe are 2-3 times higher than in the U.S., while gas prices are 4-5 times higher. This cost disparity is making it difficult for European companies to remain competitive on the global stage.

Looking forward, Gazprom expects global gas demand to reach 5.7 trillion cubic meters by 2050, driven by population growth and digitalization. Most of this growth will come from countries like China, India, and Russia, with demand in the Global South also rising.

For the U.S., Miller pointed out a slowdown in gas production due to depleting shale deposits and rising domestic demand. Interestingly, the U.S. is increasing gas imports from Canada, indicating that even the world's largest producer of gas is facing supply challenges.

Miller emphasized that Russia sees new opportunities in partnerships with global organizations like BRICS, which could shape the future of the gas market.

Russia’s Finance Minister Anton Siluanov recently said that Russia was moving towards reducing its share of volatile income and reducing Russia’s dependence on oil and gas.

Source: OILPRICE

A new AI-powered deepfake tool called ProKYC that allows nefarious actors to bypass high-level KYC measures on crypto exchanges demonstrates a “new level of sophistication” in crypto fraud, says cybersecurity firm Cato Networks.

In an Oct. 9 report, Cato Network’s chief security strategist Etay Maor said the new AI tool represents a major step up from the old-fashioned methods cybercriminals used to beat two-factor authentication and KYC.

Instead of purchasing forged ID documents on the dark web, AI-powered tools allow fraudsters to spin up brand-new identities out of thin air.

Cato said the new AI tool had been customized specifically to target crypto exchanges and financial firms whose KYC protocols include matching webcam pictures of a new user's face to their government-issued ID document such as a passport and or a driver’s license. 

A video provided by ProKYC demonstrated how the tool can generate fake ID documents and accompanying deepfake videos to pass the facial recognition challenges used by one of the world’s largest crypto exchanges.

In the video, the user creates an AI-generated face and integrates the deepfake image into a template of an Australian passport. 

Next, the ProKYC tool creates deepfake an accompanying video and image of the AI-generated person, used to successfully bypass the KYC protocols on the Dubai-based crypto exchange Bybit. 

Cato said that with AI-powered tools like ProKYC, threat actors are now far more capable of creating new accounts on crypto exchanges, a practice known as New Account Fraud (NAF).

The ProKYC website offers a package with a camera, virtual emulator, facial animation, fingerprints, and verification photo generation for $629 as part of an annual subscription. Outside of crypto exchanges, it also claims to be capable of bypassing KYC measures for payment platforms Stripe and Revolut, among others. 

Maor said properly detecting and safeguarding against this new breed of AI fraud is quite challenging, as overly strict systems could cause false positives whereas any lapses would be allowing fraudulent actors through the net.

“Creating biometric authentication systems that are super restrictive can result in many false-positive alerts. On the other hand, lax controls can result in fraud.”

However, there are several potential detection methods for these AI tools, some of which rely on humans to manually identify unusually high-quality images and videos, as well as inconsistencies in facial movements and image quality.

The penalties for identity fraud in the United States can be severe and vary depending on the nature and extent of the crime, with the maximum penalty being up to 15 years imprisonment and heavy fines.

In September, software firm Gen Digital, the parent company of antivirus firms Norton, Avast, and Avira, reported that crypto scammers using deepfake AI videos to lure in victims to fraudulent token schemes have grown increasingly active in the last 10 months.

Source: COINTELEGRAPH

“There's really nothing to discuss here.”

“In the last 24 hours, 24.1K BTC were sold at a loss.”

Bitcoin STH P&L. Source: Axel Adler Jr.X

“Overall, we’re seeing all whales accumulating in this price zone. Their growing balances suggest that a potential upward move could be on the horizon, either in the mid-term or long-term.”

Bitcoin whale numbers by size (screenshot). Source: CryptoQuant

Source: Cointelegraph

ConocoPhillips has received new U.S. licenses that could help the company recover up to $10 billion owed by Venezuela, an anonymous source has told Bloomberg. The debt stems from the Venezuelan government's nationalization of ConocoPhillips' assets over a decade ago. The licenses allow the company to pursue its claims against Petroleos de Venezuela SA (PDVSA), the state-owned oil giant, without violating U.S. sanctions.

Although the licenses don't permit ConocoPhillips to resume operations in Venezuela, they enable the company to pursue legal action in countries where PDVSA holds financial assets. By securing these licenses, ConocoPhillips can move to the front of the line among entities looking to recover funds from Venezuela, ensuring it has a strong position once PDVSA's frozen accounts are released.

Last month, a court in Trinidad and Tobago awarded ConocoPhillips $1.33 billion as part of this ongoing effort to reclaim lost assets. The September 27 ruling approved Conoco's request to seize payments that PDVSA would have received for its role in the Dragon Gas offshore product. Conoco remains committed to using every legal channel to recover the full amount it is owed, emphasizing its duty to shareholders.

Venezuela, once a leading global oil producer, has seen its output fall by over 70% due to years of underinvestment in the sector, partly a result of socialist policies and nationalization efforts. For ConocoPhillips, these U.S. licenses mark a crucial step in addressing the financial fallout from Venezuela's actions, though the company's operations in the country remain halted.

As Venezuela's oil industry continues to decline, any hope of recovery depends on securing foreign investment and technical expertise, much of which has been driven away by the country's past actions.

Source: OILPRICE