Flash UK October PMI Signals Slower Economic Growth and Smallest Rise in Costs for Nearly Four Years

Economic

Summary:

Business activity growth has slumped to its lowest for nearly a year in October as gloomy government rhetoric and uncertainty ahead of the Budget has dampened business confidence and spending.

Business activity growth has slumped to its lowest for nearly a year in October as gloomy government rhetoric and uncertainty ahead of the Budget has dampened business confidence and spending. Companies await clarity on government policy, with conflicts in the Middle East and Ukraine, as well as the US elections, adding to the nervousness about the economic outlook.

The early PMI data are indicative of the economy growing at a meagre 0.1% quarterly rate in October, reflecting a broad-based slowing of business activity, spending and demand across both manufacturing and services.

Worryingly, the deterioration in business confidence in the outlook has also prompted companies to reduce headcounts for the first time this year.

Cleary, the policies announced in the Budget have the potential to play a major role in steering the direction of the economy in the months ahead.

Encouragingly, however, a further cooling of input cost inflation to the lowest for nearly four years opens the door for the Bank of England to take a more aggressive stance towards lowering interest rates, should the current slowdown become more entrenched.

Output growth close to one-year low

Business activity growth lost momentum for a second consecutive month in October, dropping to the slowest for 11 months to herald a sluggish start to the fourth quarter

The headline indicator from the flash PMI surveys, the seasonally adjusted S&P Global UK PMI Composite Output Index, fell from 52.6 in September to 51.7 in October. While remaining above the 50.0 no change level to signal an expansion of activity for a twelfth successive month, the latest reading was the lowest since last November to indicate a slowing in the rate of expansion for a second month running.

The October flash PMI reading is broadly indicative of the UK economy growing at a quarterly rate of just 0.1%, down from a 0.2% rate signalled in September and a 0.25% expansion for the third quarter as a whole, based on the historical relationship of the PMI with GDP.

Manufacturing and services report slower growth

Growth slowed across both manufacturing and services in October. Manufacturing output grew especially modestly, rising at the slowest rate for six months amid the first fall in new orders seen over this period. Exports fell particularly sharply, registering the largest decline for eight months.

The drop in factory demand resulted in an increased rate of decline for backlogs of work alongside a rise in unsold stock levels for the first time in 16 months.

The manufacturing new orders to inventory ratio (the latter referring to the volume of unsold finished goods accumulating in warehouses) consequently fell in October to a seven-month low and to a level indicative of the economy slowing further in the coming months.

Weak demand also contributed to the factory sector becoming less optimistic about future output, with year-ahead expectations dropping to a 22-month low.

Services sector business activity growth also lost momentum to record the smallest gain for 11 months, with the survey sub-indices hinting at worse to come. Despite new business inflows continuing to be reported amid improved overseas sales, albeit at a slightly reduced rate, backlogs of uncompleted work fell sharply in the service sector, hinting at the possibility of business activity growth slowing further in the coming months. Hence future business expectations also moderated in the service sector in October, down to an 11-month low.

Lacking in confidence

Measured across both goods and services, business confidence measured by output expectations for the year ahead fell in October to the lowest since last November, and is now running only marginally above the survey's long run average.

Companies across both manufacturing and services cite recent gloomy talk from the government and uncertainty surrounding the upcoming Budget as the major dampener on business optimism, with many firms - especially smaller companies - and their customers awaiting clarity on the new government's policies. The US elections and conflicts in both the Middle East and Ukraine were also seen as further subduing confidence, fueling an environment in which both investment decisions and current spending were often reported to have been put 'on hold'.

Hiring halt

The deteriorating outlook and slowdowns in business growth and demand caused companies to reduce headcounts for the first time since last December. A small rise in factory employment was more than offset by the first decline in service sector employment recorded so far this year, the latter falling at the fastest rate since last September.

Costs rise at slowest rate for nearly four years

Despite the drop in employment, companies - notably in the service sector - continued to report upward pressure on selling prices due to pay growth. Services selling price inflation consequently ticked up to a four-month high, though is still running at one of the lowest rates seen since the pandemic. Encouragingly, service sector input cost inflation edged down to the second-lowest for 44 months, and is running only slightly above the pre-pandemic average.

However, the biggest change in the inflation picture in October came from the manufacturing sector, where selling prices rose at the slowest rate since February amid the first fall in input costs since last December. Producers reported costs to have fallen due to a variety of factors including the reduced import costs arising from the stronger pound, lower oil prices and greater discounting by suppliers.

Measured overall, input costs across goods producers and services providers rose in October at the slowest rate since November 2020, boding well for core inflation to fall further in the coming months.

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Economic

Bond

What is the Autumn Budget and Why is it Important?

The Autumn Budget, to be delivered by Chancellor Rachel Reeves on October 30, is the Labour Government's first budget in nearly 15 years. It's a crucial moment because the government faces a significant £40 billion budget gap, known as a 'fiscal hole,' which it needs to address. This budget will outline how the government plans to raise money through taxes and spend on public services like healthcare, education, and infrastructure. It's important because the decisions made in this budget will affect the UK’s economy, public services, and how much the government borrows.

How Higher Borrowing and Taxes Will Resolve the Fiscal Gap

To close the £40 billion fiscal gap, the government is expected to use higher borrowing and higher taxes. Here’s how it works:

Higher Borrowing:

The government will borrow money by issuing bonds (gilts) to cover immediate spending needs, particularly for large investments in infrastructure or public services. This helps in the short term, allowing the government to improve services without cutting too deeply into current programs.

Although borrowing increases debt, careful borrowing for productive investments can boost the economy in the long run, helping to generate more tax revenue in the future.

Higher Taxes:

The government is likely to raise taxes, particularly focusing on wealthier individuals and corporations, rather than workers. These tax hikes will provide more revenue to cover day-to-day government expenses like healthcare, pensions, and education.

Increasing taxes on areas like capital gains, inheritance, and corporate profits will help reduce the deficit while protecting working people from income tax increases.

What the Markets Need from the Autumn Budget

For markets to have confidence in the government, the Autumn Budget needs to reflect a clear and balanced approach to managing public debt, spending efficiently, and stimulating growth. Investors and financial markets will be looking for:

Responsible borrowing: The government must show it can borrow money without causing alarm, ensuring debt remains manageable.

Clear fiscal rules: Setting rules around how much the government can spend and borrow over time will reassure markets that the UK won’t face sudden financial instability.

Investment in growth: Markets will be more confident if the budget includes spending on projects that boost long-term economic growth, like infrastructure, healthcare, or education reforms.

Implications of the Autumn Budget for the Bank of England

For the BoE, the Autumn Budget presents a mixed picture. While fiscal easing is moderate, the large increase in gilt issuance and higher borrowing could create upward pressure on bond yields and complicate the BoE's quantitative tightening plans. Additionally, the potential for fiscal-driven inflation could temper the BoE's ability to aggressively cut rates in the coming months, requiring careful navigation of monetary policy in response to fiscal changes. The implication of the Autumn Budget for policymakers are the following:

Increased Borrowing and Gilt Issuance.

More gilt issuance will push yields higher, affecting bond prices. The BoE may adjust its quantitative tightening (QT) to manage market stability.

Modest Fiscal Easing and Inflation.

Fiscal easing could drive inflation, complicating BoE rate cuts. Persistent inflation means higher borrowing costs for longer, impacting rate-sensitive sectors.

Debt Sustainability and Market Confidence.

Rising debt-to-GDP ratios may lead to higher risk premiums on UK assets. The BoE’s response could affect bond yields and the pound.

Public Investment and Growth.

Increased public investment could boost growth in sectors like infrastructure. However, if it stokes inflation, the BoE may keep rates high.

Three investment strategies to consider ahead of the UK Autumn Budget:

Infrastructure Investments.

The UK Autumn Budget is expected to prioritize infrastructure spending, particularly in housing, construction, and large public projects. With interest rates expected to fall, financing for these projects becomes more affordable, creating attractive opportunities in the infrastructure sector. Government initiatives, such as easing planning regulations and promoting public-private partnerships, will further boost growth in infrastructure investments, including civil engineering and construction.

How to get exposure to UK Infrastructure through ETFs?

UK Equities and Pension Fund Demand. The potential reforms to pension funds under the UK Autumn Budget present a significant opportunity for UK equities. If the government incentivizes pension funds to invest more heavily in domestic stocks, as suggested by Labour’s plan, this could lead to increased demand for UK equities. Higher demand from large institutional investors like pension funds can drive up stock prices, creating growth opportunities for investors.

While there may be some risks related to changes in pension tax relief or tax-free cash, the overarching theme of increased investment in UK markets is likely to benefit UK-listed companies, particularly those that are already popular with institutional investors.

Bond Markets

The UK Autumn Budget is expected to result in increased government borrowing, leading to higher gilt issuance. This, combined with potential inflationary pressures from fiscal easing, could result in volatility in gilt yields. As more gilts are issued to finance public spending, yields may rise, negatively impacting the price of longer-dated bonds. Furthermore, any uncertainty regarding debt sustainability or market confidence could exacerbate this volatility.

For investors seeking to limit exposure to interest rate risk and price fluctuations, short-term gilts offer a more stable option. Shorter-duration bonds are less sensitive to changes in interest rates, making them a safer choice in periods of rising yields or market uncertainty. By focusing on short-term gilts, investors can reduce the potential impact of price declines caused by yield volatility.

To stay updated on all economic events of today, please check out our Economic calendar

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S&P Global Inc.

Economic

The PMI survey data for October showed the eurozone economy to have stalled for a second successive month as falling factory activity was accompanied by a further slowing of growth in the services economy.

Whether the economy can avoid a contraction of GDP in the fourth quarter is a growing worry, with a further worsening of business confidence hinting at downside risks in the near-term. Firms are also reducing headcounts at an increased rate amid concerns over the economic situation.

Fortunately, price pressures have continued to moderate in October, with average selling price inflation cooling further to the lowest since early 2021. Notably, cost pressures in the service sector - a key area of concern among inflation hawks - have moderated further.

With the economy showing increased risks of contracting, and the survey selling price index dropping further below a level that is consistent with the ECB's 2% target, the latest PMI data hint at a possible further policy loosening from the central bank to follow the two 25 basis point rate cuts that so far seen this year.

Here are our top five takeaways from the October flash PMI data:

Economy stagnates for second month

The seasonally adjusted HCOB Flash Eurozone Composite PMI Output Index, based on approximately 85% of usual survey responses and compiled by S&P Global, posted 49.7 in October. Following a reading of 49.6 in September, the latest figures signalled a second successive monthly marginal fall in euro area business activity.

Comparisons with official data indicate the latest PMI reading is broadly indicative of no GDP growth for a second successive month. The direction of travel in the PMI over the next two months will therefore be closely eyed for a possible GDP contraction in the fourth quarter.

Weakness was again led by the manufacturing sector, where production again fell sharply, down for a nineteenth straight month amid a further steep fall in new orders. While the service sector expanded, growth was the lowest for eight months as new orders for services decreased for a second consecutive month and at the fastest rate for nine months.

Downturns in France and Germany

At the country level, further downturns were seen in France and Germany, contrasting with a sustained - but modest - expansion in the rest of the eurozone as a whole.

Having improved in August on the back of a jump in service sector activity, coinciding with the Paris Olympics, the composite PMI for France remained in contraction territory for a second successive month in October, with output declining at the sharpest rate since January amid steepening falls in both manufacturing and services.

The flash composite PMI for Germany also remained in contraction territory, albeit rising slightly to signal a moderation in the rate of decline. Output has nevertheless now fallen for four successive months as a prolonged and steep downturn in the manufacturing sector was accompanied by only very modest service sector growth in October.

Employment drops at fastest rate since 2020

With customer demand waning, firms in the euro area increasingly scaled back their staffing for the third month running, with net job losses reaching the highest since late 2020. Although only modest, barring the pandemic, the drop in employment was notable in being the steepest recorded since late-2013.

While the reduction in staffing levels was centered on manufacturers, the service sector saw a worrying near-stagnation of employment which, excluding the pandemic, represents the worst service sector employment situation seen for ten years.

The jobs picture was particularly bleak in Germany, where headcounts were cut to the largest degree since the opening wave of the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020. Employment also decreased slightly in France, though the rest of the eurozone saw staffing levels rise modestly.

Confidence dips further

Business confidence about the year ahead meanwhile dropped for the fifth consecutive month to the lowest for almost a year, and a level increasingly below the series average. Sentiment waned in both the manufacturing and services sectors, the former remaining especially subdued, to hint at near-term downside risks to output for both sectors.

Lower confidence reflected concerns over weak demand, trade barriers and intensifying geopolitical concerns, as well as government fiscal policies.

Prices rise at slowest rate since early-2021

Encouraging news for inflation was provided as firms' selling prices rose in October at the slowest rate since February 2021. A rise in services charges was outweighed by a fall in manufacturing selling prices to reduce the overall rate of inflation, which in recent months has been running at a level consistent with consumer price inflation below the European Central bank's 2% target.

Further downward pressure on selling prices is likely in the near term, as costs rose in October at the slowest rate in just under four years. Manufacturing input costs decreased for the second month running, dropping at the fastest pace since March amid lower energy prices and increased discounting via competition among suppliers. Although services input prices continued to increase, the latest rise was among the smallest witnessed since early-2021.

To stay updated on all economic events of today, please check out our Economic calendar

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S&P Global Inc.

Economic

Japan's private sector activity shrank for the first time in four months in October, hinting at a softening of the GDP trend at the start of the final quarter of 2024. The latest reduction in business activity was broad-based as services joined manufacturing in contraction.

Muted economic conditions and subdued new order inflows underpinned the latest downturn according to survey respondents, with forward-looking indicators hinting at further weakness in the near-term.

The slowdown in business activity was notably contrasted by an intensification of price pressures, the latter owing to rising costs. Altogether, the mixture of slowing growth and rising inflation poses a dilemma for the Japanese central bank and their current hawkish bias.

Japan's flash PMI signal sharpest contraction of activity in nearly two years

The au Jibun Bank Flash Japan Composite PMI, compiled by S&P Global, fell to 49.4 in October, down from a final reading of 52.0 in September. Falling past the 50.0 neutral mark, the latest reading signalled that Japan's private sector activity contracted at the start of the fourth quarter of the year. While marginal, the latest reduction in activity was the most pronounced since November 2022 and signalled a near-neutral GDP print at the opening month of the quarter.

Broad-based reduction in private sector activity

Underpinning the latest downturn in activity was a broad-based reduction in output by sector, with services having followed manufacturing into decline during the latest survey period. Services activity fell for the first time in four months. Moreover, the rate of reduction was the sharpest since February 2022 despite being marginal overall. This was attributed to a softening of demand conditions, notably in terms of overseas-driven (export) business, which led to services new business falling for only the second time in the past two-and-a-half years.

Meanwhile manufacturing output remained in contraction for a second successive month, with the rate of reduction accelerating to a six-month high. A slowdown in goods demand was again observed in October. Export orders notably fell at a pace that was solid and the fastest since March, altogether reflective of the wider trend of deteriorating global goods demand of late.

Forward-looking indicators hint at further weakness to come

The seasonally adjusted PMI New Orders Index, which typically precedes the trend for the headline output index, indicated that incoming new orders for Japanese manufactured goods and services declined for the first time since June. Moreover, the rate of decline was the sharpest since February 2022, thereby outlining a greater-than-usual reduction in new work. As highlighted above, services new business fell for only the second time since April 2022 while goods new orders dropped at the fastest rate in three months.

Concurrently, optimism about future output fell in October. Confidence about output in the next 12 months lowered for a third straight month to the weakest since August 2020, which was during the initial wave of the pandemic. By sector, confidence levels were at 45- and 30-month lows for services and manufacturing respectively. Furthermore, private sector firms also added new staff at the slowest pace in the ongoing 13-month sequence, reflecting apprehension regarding activity growth.

Price pressures intensify in October

While Japanese private sector activity fell in October, price pressures notably intensified. The rate of selling price inflation climbed for a second successive month as average input costs rose at a faster pace. Survey respondents indicated that rising input material, labour and energy costs underpinned the latest intensification of cost pressures.

By sector, selling price inflation remained steeper within the manufacturing sector when compared with services, though rates of inflation for both sectors were nevertheless above their respective series averages in October.

The latest uptick in cost inflation therefore outlined the likelihood for Japan's inflation to remain at around 2.0% in the coming months. While the latest inflation trend remains supportive of the ongoing hawkish bias for the Bank of Japan (BOJ), the slowdown in private sector activity, underpinned by weakening consumption, provides impetus for the BOJ to further deliberate over their options. This also hints at the likelihood for any moves to be delayed into early 2025.

To stay updated on all economic events of today, please check out our Economic calendar

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Warren Takunda

Economic

Europe's Stoxx 600 opened lower on Friday morning, rounding off the week with its fourth loss in five sessions amid ongoing macro and political uncertainty.

The Stoxx 600 was down 0.2% by 0939 CEST, with most major benchmarks across the continent trading with mild losses. The index now sits 1.4% lower on the week after hitting a four-week high last Friday.

"As the week comes to an end, yields are thankfully lower, relieving some of the tension that has been plaguing stocks and enabling the battered yen and euro to restore some stability in relation to the dollar," said Patrick Munnelly, partner of market strategy at Tickmill Group.

"However, with risk events swirling over the horizon next week – including mega-cap results from five of the 'Magnificent 7'; a highly crucial US payrolls data on Friday; and the final lap leading up to a potential photo-finish US presidential election on 5 November – this relative quiet feels like the eye of the storm."

Economic data was relatively thin on the ground on Friday, with the German IFO sentiment gauge the only major release. The Business climate index improved to 86.5 this month from 85.4 in September, beating the 85.6 consensus forecast, as both assessments of current conditions and future expectations rose.

Earnings mixed

Mercedes-Benz was in reverse after the German car and truck maker reported a third-quarter net profit of €1.72bn, down from €3.72bn a year earlier and well below the €1.93bn expected by the market. Car margins sank to just 4.7% from 12.4% the year before on the back of softer pricing and weaker sales of higher-margin models.

Also lower was Remy Cointreau after the French drinks group cut its full-year revenue forecast following a 16% plunge in fiscal second-quarter sales to €317m, missing analysts' estimates. The company blamed weak conditions in China and poor demand in the US.

In London, NatWest jumped 5% after raising its full-year income forecasts after a strong third quarter in which profits jumped 35%. The banking group said it now expects to achieve a return on tangible equity above 15%, up one percentage point on previous guidance, while adjusted income should come in at £14.4bn, compared with an earlier forecast of £14bn.

Elsewhere, French pharma giant Sanofi impressed with its third-quarter profits, while Italian energy group Eni was subdued after cutting its earnings guidance for the year.

Source: Sharecast

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Cohen

Economic

Malaysia sees tremendous synergies between Asean and BRICS as the country takes the chairmanship of Asean next year, promoting inclusivity and sustainability, said Economy Minister Rafizi Ramli.

He said Malaysia wants to showcase its regional leadership in semiconductors, the energy transition and Islamic finance.

“Indeed, Malaysia’s application to BRICS is centred on building economic partnerships, strengthening trade ties and expanding our growth potential,” he said in the national statement by Malaysia at the BRICS Outreach/BRICS Plus Summit in Kazan, Russia, on Thursday.

His speech was telecast live on his official X account on Thursday night.

“Whether it is Asean or BRICS, there is a commonality in our worldview. As some parts of the world turn inwards, we remain steadfast and will continue to engage openly,” he said.

He also pointed out that Malaysia is crafting a new position for the country to play as the Asean chairman in 2025. “One that is rooted in economic diplomacy where our centrality and neutrality bridges Asean and BRICS and where we become a focal point for countries that want to push back against the global trend,” he said.

Rafizi also noted that Malaysia strongly calls for an immediate and permanent ceasefire and to allow unrestricted humanitarian access to Gaza.

Besides that, he said Malaysia strongly condemns the attack on the United Nations Interim Force in the Lebanon headquarters which injured several peacekeepers.

“The countries of the Global South have continued to be marginalised, and remain under-represented, and the rise of protectionism cripples smaller countries from getting ahead,” he pointed out.

Hence, he said barriers to development finance impede the building of vital infrastructure and a growing global debt has become a chokehold to growth.

For Malaysia, he said BRICS is not just a rejection of these constraints, but it is also the solution.

“As the world becomes multipolar, BRICS has become a critical counterbalance. If member countries can embrace seamless economic linkages, the potential is exponential,” he stressed.

Rafizi said that by promoting greater economic integration, developing countries will have more opportunities in infrastructure investment, technology transfer and capacity building.

Malaysia has been recognised as one of 13 nations officially added to BRICS as a partner country, a bloc that collectively accounts for one-fifth of global trade.

Apart from Malaysia, the other 12 nations are Algeria, Belarus, Bolivia, Cuba, Indonesia, Kazakhstan, Nigeria, Thailand, Türkiye, Uganda, Uzbekistan and Vietnam.

The bloc represents about 40% of the global population and accounts for a cumulative gross domestic product (GDP) of US$26.6 trillion (RM115.4 trillion), or 26.2% of the world’s GDP, nearly matching the economic strength of the Group of Seven.

Source: The edge markets

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Owen Li

Economic

Last week, Phillips 66 said it would shut down its Los Angeles oil refinery by the end of next year. Now, refining peer Valero Energy Corp is suggesting it could be next.

Valero, the United States’ second-largest refiner by capacity, is keeping all options “on the table” for its two California refineries. According to the company’s Chief Executive Lane Riggs, this is due to the increasing regulatory pressure that has pervaded California.

Oil refiners in California saw lower-than-average margins in late spring/early summer this year as lower operating capacity failed to deliver higher margins. According to the EIA, this is because refiners increased their existing capacity utilization rates.

Despite the lower margins, California boasts the most expensive gasoline in the United States—a condition that the California Governor’s Office blames on refiners. In an attempt to hold refiners accountable, the Office has threatened to penalize them for price gouging.

California, however, has the highest excise duty on gasoline of all the states.

California legislators then adopted a law that allowed authorities to cap refiners’ profits whenever they see fit. Even more recently, California Governor Gavin Newsom signed a bill that would give state energy regulators the power to mandate fuel inventory levels for refiners and the ability to approve—or not—scheduled refinery maintenance.

“Price spikes at the pump are profit spikes for Big Oil,” Newsom said at the time. “Refiners should be required to plan ahead and backfill supplies to keep prices stable, instead of playing games to earn even more profits. By making refiners act responsibly and maintain a gas reserve, Californians would save money at the pump every year.”

Chevron previously cautioned that such action would spell trouble for California refiners and ultimately blowback on end consumers.

Valero operates refineries in Benicia and Wilmington, California.

Source: OILPRICE

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Flash UK October PMI Signals Slower Economic Growth and Smallest Rise in Costs for Nearly Four Years

Output growth close to one-year low

Manufacturing and services report slower growth

Lacking in confidence

Hiring halt

Costs rise at slowest rate for nearly four years

Prepare for the UK Autumn Budget: Top Insights and 3 Must-Consider Investment Strategies

What is the Autumn Budget and Why is it Important?

How Higher Borrowing and Taxes Will Resolve the Fiscal Gap

What the Markets Need from the Autumn Budget

Implications of the Autumn Budget for the Bank of England

Three investment strategies to consider ahead of the UK Autumn Budget:

Infrastructure Investments.

Bond Markets

Flash Eurozone PMI Top Five Takeaways: Economy Stalls as Price Pressures Ease

Economy stagnates for second month

Downturns in France and Germany

Employment drops at fastest rate since 2020

Confidence dips further

Prices rise at slowest rate since early-2021

Japan's Business Activity Declines While Selling Price Inflation Rises in October

Japan's flash PMI signal sharpest contraction of activity in nearly two years

Broad-based reduction in private sector activity

Forward-looking indicators hint at further weakness to come

Price pressures intensify in October

Europe Open: Stocks Lower on Mixed Earnings

Source: Sharecast

Rafizi Sees Tremendous Synergies Between Asean and Brics

Source: The edge markets

Valero Could be Next to Shutter California Oil Refineries

Source: OILPRICE

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